BA Southern League Top 20 Prospects

by louief1 on Oct 6, 2006 2:07 PM EDT Comment 22 comments

Homer Bailey, rhp, Chattanooga (Reds)
Yovani Gallardo, rhp, Huntsville (Brewers)
Scott Elbert, lhp, Jacksonville (Dodgers)
Matt Kemp, of, Jacksonville (Dodgers)
Andy LaRoche, 3b, Jacksonville (Dodgers)
Ryan Braun, 3b, Huntsville (Brewers)
Joey Votto, 1b, Chattanooga (Reds)
Jeff Niemann, rhp, Montgomery (Devil Rays)
Anibal Sanchez, rhp, Carolina (Marlins)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c, Mississippi (Braves)
Miguel Montero, c, Tennessee (Diamondbacks)
Sean Gallagher, rhp, West Tenn (Cubs)
Tyler Lumsden, lhp, Birmingham (White Sox)
George Kottaras, c, Mobile (Padres)
Alberto Gonzalez, ss, Tennessee (Diamondbacks)
Mitch Talbot, rhp, Montgomery (Devil Rays)
Eric Patterson, 2b, West Tenn (Cubs)
Juan Salas, rhp, Montgomery (Devil Rays)
Andy Sonnastine, rhp, Montgomery (Devil Rays)
Lance Broadway, rhp, Birmingham (White Sox)

Here it is... Thoughts?

0 recs | Comment 22 comments |

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Comments

Lumsden

Too high, I have him on a keeper team and his numbers are mediocre at best. 5.5 K/9 near 3 BB/9

by Deech on Oct 6, 2006 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

just a couple of issues for me

Lumsden over Talbot, Sonnanstine, and Broadway? Based on what?

Also, BA needs to stop the mancrush on Ryan Braun. His glove is horrible at 3B and he's not that great of a prospect in the OF.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Oct 6, 2006 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

I dunno

I'd think a 950 OPS in a pitchers league for a guy right outta college is nice

but thats just silly ol me

by nms on Oct 6, 2006 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously...I mean what does Braun have to do to earn your respect? The above poster said it best with the OPS mark, and last time I checked, prospects weren't really rated for their defensive prowess when considering rankings.

Every indication given by the Brewers brass is thst Braun improved defensively this year and will be an average ML 3rd baseman.

by mjwelch11 on Oct 6, 2006 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

defense

Defense is included in prospect ratings, especially when position is considered.

If Braun played an average 3B, I'd see no problem with the hype machine BA has created for him.

I just can't see him as that highly rated a prospect in the OF.

He's still a good prospect though, don't get me wrong. If he pans out defensively at 3B, I'd respect the guy immensely and view him as a top prospect in all of baseball.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Oct 6, 2006 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Lumsden

Obviously, as usual, they are basing it on the way they perceive his stuff, as they're talking about three plus pitches and stuff. The other two things are that he had only thrown 39 pro innings before this season and that was in 2004, so that's not a bad performance considering. And his numbers are pretty good in the SL, other than strikeouts, though not nearly as good as your DRays.

I had all four of those pitchers in the 14-20 range when I was guessing, and Lumsden was only one above that range.

by Brett Perryman on Oct 6, 2006 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Brian Barton

Did I have the minimum numbers to be considered too low? Because I had him eligible, and him not making it was the biggest surprise to me. He had 151 AB.

by Brett Perryman on Oct 6, 2006 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

probably missed the cut

He was 16th in the Carolina league, and in a weaker group. This group of 20 is much stronger, I think.

by Azteca on Oct 6, 2006 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Brian Barton played in the EL, not the SL!

Hello zywica,

As Azteca mentioned, he was 16th in the Carolina League, and he did not make the Eastern League Top 20 (Indians' AA Akron affiliate plays in the Eastern League, not the Southern League,) though I suspect Barton's older than ideal age of 24 may have had something to do with that, considering he finished with a line of .351/.415/.503 in his first try at AA in 151 ABs. (Yes, I know the 24- to 25-year old Kouzmanoff made #13, but there was almost no way BA could ignore him when he hit .400 for most of the year at AA, finishing at .389/.449/.660, so his outstanding performance was the main reason he was included on the EL Top 20 List, despite the fact he was 24-25 this year at AA.)

Barton is a solid prospect in his own right - he was undrafted out of the Univ. of Miami because all ML teams thought he would stay in school and finish his aeronautical engineering degree. If he keeps progressing like he has this year, he could maybe appear in the International League Top 20 after next season, depending on the rest of the competition of course.

Take care and have a great weekend!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Oct 7, 2006 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah sorry

EL for Barton. Really as much as the numbers what surprised me about his low and non ratings was that they (BA) talked him up so much during the season. He was a regular Hot Sheet resident and was mentioned by Callis a few times as an emerging player this year.

by Brett Perryman on Oct 7, 2006 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions

That's okay; thoughts on Barton!

Hello zywica,

It's okay - keeping track of which teams have affiliates in which leagues can be a bit confusing at times - no problem! :-)

Regarding Barton, looking again at the Top 20 EL list, my guess is that BA thinks that pitching prospects like Mathieson, Jurrens, Gonzalez, Liz, and Olson will all be above-average (#3s or better,) which is probably what prevented Barton from making the list, combined with his older-than-ideal age of 24.

Of course, isn't the minimum ABs required at one level 150 ABs? Being that Barton only had 151 ABs at AA, maybe they forgot he did make the minimum amount and was eligible. Probably they considered him, but you never know, since Barton just made that 150 AB requirement.

Take care and have a great Sunday!

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Oct 8, 2006 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Lumsden

His numbers are pretty bland, but we all know BA loves tools and potential, and Lumsden certainly has them.

He's a southpaw that can regularly reach the mid 90's and can top out at 97 (at least he could when he was drafted, don't know if last year's injury affected velocity). He has three quality pitches, and actually pitched okay considering he was out all of last season.

by eazyb81 on Oct 6, 2006 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Sanchez

The Southern League must be loaded with pitching prospects if Anibal was the 5th ranked pitcher, after winning 10 games, pitching a no-no, and posting an ERA of 2.83 and WHIP of 1.19 (in the majors).

What am I missing? Are the other guys really better prospects?

"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith

by finman on Oct 6, 2006 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

well

the big league success wont count for him on a list likethis. Its about how good they looked to scouts and managers while in the SL

by nms on Oct 6, 2006 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

But

I should add there are some SERIOUS all-star caliber guys ahead of him. I can see personal preference moving him (or others) up or down but I dont see any obvious guys hes clearly better than.

I love Anibal a lot BTW, gutsy young SOB w good stuff

by nms on Oct 6, 2006 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

NMS is right....

Sanchez's ML success notwithstanding, I don't think anyone who saw him the SL this year would have thought he win would 10 ML games in a season, let alone a half. I thought he was good, but not great.

The other 3 pitchers you watch and you see 15+ wins no problems. I never saw Niemann so I can't comment on him.

Votto should be ahead of LaRoche and Braun, position withstanding....maybe not LaRoche, but certainly Braun. Votto's improvement throughout the season, especially against LHP, was dramatic.

And I know he's a reliever....but my goodness, when Juan Salas came in the game the hitters had no chance. All the hitters. His arm may fall off but it was like a high school kid throwing to Little Leaguers.

"Strikeouts are good...groundballs are better. Home runs are okay...but walks SUCK!" Mike Caldwell

by Torncuff on Oct 7, 2006 9:39 AM EDT reply actions

Votto over Braun?

Quote: Votto should be ahead of LaRoche and Braun, position withstanding....maybe not LaRoche, but certainly Braun.

If you go by the numbers in the SL:

Braun: 303/367/589/956
Votto: 319/408/547/956

Very similar numbers (exact OPS even) the big difference is Braun should be about average at 3B, votto at 1B. Also there's this difference:

Braun's babip: 324
Votto's babip: 371

So votto came into the season with lower scout's fanfare, had a similar season to braun (only counting SL league here) at a lower valued position, while posting the similar numbers with an unsustainable babip. I think Braun's got every reason to be ahead of Votto here. Also Chattanooga is a slight hitters park vs huntsville (which is pretty neutral).

by jspearlj1 on Oct 8, 2006 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

interesting points...

but I would like to note that this is a great example of where OPS falls really short as a measuring stick.

Those 41 points of OB are worth a lot more than the 42 points of SLG. 1.8 is a reasonably good coefficient to use for crude comparisons.
Batting average is helpful. At the same OPS, the higher BA player had the better season.

All that being said, I agree with the thrust of your note. Braun was very highly-rated, and I'd be curious to know what managers and coaches in that league saw in him that knocked some of the lustre off. Or maybe what they saw in Votto this year that excited them more than in the past? Based on pure stats and pedigree, I'd take Braun in a heartbeat, if for no other reason than the positional advantage.

by BobbyMac on Oct 8, 2006 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

yes and no...

The difference in patience is only 23 in IsoD, adn that difference is negated even more when you consider that Votto's BA is inflated by an unsustainable 371 babip. Even then the 23 points difference in isoD vs the 42 point difference in slg is pretty much inline with your 1.8 coefficient. Basically they had very similar numbers, Braun's numbers come out a little ahead because of the babip diff, and home parks, but Votto had better numbers over a whole season in the SL. the big difference is position, and Braun has more potential. Either way, considering they were only ranked 1 spot difference, its not a big deal, just cant see how Votto should be ahead of Braun in the SL ranking since their offensive numbers are similar but Braun has better tools and plays a more important position.

by jspearlj1 on Oct 8, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

But while

371 itself maybe unsustainable its a good indication that Votto hits for an above average BABIP (a repeatable skill for hitters).

Its like one player hitting .360 and another hitting .300.

While its unlikely that the 360 hitter isnt really a 360 hitter hes almost certainly more of a "true .300 hitter" than the guy who hit 300 (who is more likely to be a "mere" true 280 hitter)

by nms on Oct 8, 2006 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions