Curtis Granderson - Where does he go from here?

by rhodehead on Oct 4, 2006 12:22 AM EDT

Watching the Yankees/Tigers game tonight, I got to thinking about Curtis Granderson (a nice 3 hit game, including a late inning HR). What does the future hold for young Curtis?

With an impressive spring training, he was touted as a possible 20/20 candidate eventually. Many people on this site (including John) spoke very favorably of him early in the season. He started out of the gate like gangbusters, with 57 runs, 20 2b, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 47 BB, 97 K, 7/11 SB, .278/.366/462 before the all star break. I think these numbers are more reflective of his talent level and potential.

From July on, though, he fell off the pace, hitting just .238 with 33 runs and just 19 walks in 72 games. He did end the season with 19 HR and 90 runs scored, very solid out of the leadoff spot.

He led the AL in K's in 174, which is a problem. He is very solid defensively and seems to have a strong work ethic. Being his first full season in the bigs, I think he has potential to improve and make adjustments.

Can anyone comment on his stolen bases or lack there of? Is he not getting the green light or does he not have a good technique? I am curious because his minor league sb numbers combined with his overall solid speed I thought would translate to more sb's. Can we expect improvement in '07 in the sb department?

Where do you think Curtis Granderson goes from here?

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by Justin & Joe on Oct 4, 2006 1:03 AM EDT reply actions

Needs to

keep the strike outs down or I doubt he'll improve much.

Should be a above average CF though.

by RollingWave on Oct 4, 2006 5:23 AM EDT reply actions

Bobby Bonds, maybe

I hope the Tigers sign his son eventually.

by BIgMax on Oct 4, 2006 9:51 AM EDT reply actions

Good question

I've watched him some lately. Granted it's been in Aug/Sep when he's been in a funk... his approach at the plate and swing doesn't strike me as tremendous. I'm no expert but I see him off balance more than I'd like to see, taking some 3rd strikes he probably shouldn't (maybe he guesses to much) and popping the ball up a fair amount. Even that home run last night... I don't know others percieved it... but it wasn't one of those hits that made me say 'Dammmmmnnnn' right off the bat... What was impressive about it though is you like to see a hitter that has struggled with LHP handle Myers and his filthy arm slot.

Contrast Curtis with Robbie Cano. I didn't get a chance to see him alot last season until the 2005 playoffs. So I had bought into some of the doubt surrounding him from stat heads that was based on low IsoD. But after seeing him day after day in those playoffs I got a sense that the Carew comps weren't outlandish. I became incredibly impressed with that nice line drive spray stroke he's got...

All that said, I just went to hardball times and Granderson did lead MLB CFs in LD%. I like the kid. The fact that he wears Velcro sneakers from Walmart even after he made the majors is priceless... I don't think he's got anywhere near Sizemore upside but .280/.360/.480 at CF should be within grasp. It's certainly no given he achieves it. But if he can thats nice CF production in deep 24-30 team leagues. In a sim league he becomes even a little more useful b/c it's not hard to find a platoon mate.

Bobby Crosby - a poor man's Adam Everett.

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Oct 4, 2006 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

Granderson...

I think you'll definitely see him move down the order, though that may be a year away. Strike outs have never been a problem in any other league on his way up the food chain, so hopefully he can curtail those quite a bit next season. I wouldn't count the late season swoon too much against him either, as I think he just hit the rookie wall more than anything else.

Reguaridng SB's, it's not Leylands style to steal a lot of bases. He mentioned at one point that sb's are overrated and often a padded stat and that he only considers somebody a base stealer if everybody knows he's going and he still steals the base. Leyland also likes keeping the runner on first base to open a hole on that side of the infield and to give the pitcher something else to be thinking about.

by BaseballJonze on Oct 4, 2006 12:46 PM EDT reply actions

Stealing bases

I agree with your post, but I don't really understand the mentality you describe, that SB have no value. But clearly there are teams that subscribe to it.

If you've got a guy on first, and you can get him to second, he's:

A) in scoring position
B) eliminates nearly all chance of a DP
plus
C) the pitcher still has to think about him at 2B
D) there are still holes that open up if a fast guy has to be held at 2B

The main drawback in my mind is that with 1B open they can now pitch around the current batter, but if you've got any depth in your lineup at all, go ahead and let them put another guy on base.

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -Red Barber

by e 6 on Oct 4, 2006 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

They don't have significant value in context...

of course a successful stolen base has value. But a caught stealing has a very significant negative value.

With the exception of Carlos Guillen (and the rare surprise by Pudge, who chooses his moments well), none of the Tigers steal bases well enough to provide a positive value from their steals.

by BIgMax on Oct 4, 2006 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Funny...

the Mets had Reyes on 1st with 2 outs in the 8th today, LoDuca at the plate, and the announcer says Reyes should try and steal, cause if he's "thrown out it doesn't matter" (or words to that effect) - which seems crazy to me. LoDuca works the count, thanks to 2 pitch outs, then singles to right and Reyes (running on the pitch) gets third. He didn't come around to score, but potentially wasting outs just doesn't make sense. "Announcers" (explayers) say this all the time - the other common example is when the lead off man is at the plate with two outs - the runner should try and steal, so the batter can lead off the next inning if the runner is thrown out. does this bug anyone else?

by almantle on Oct 4, 2006 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Polanco

As long as Granderson hits ahead of Polanco, there's going to be a strong possibility that the hit-and-run will be preferred to the straight steal anyway. Polanco is one of the best at the hitting part of a hit-and-run.

by BobbyMac on Oct 5, 2006 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I find it interesting

that attempting stolen bases is almost always statistically in the favor of taking the risk (ie stolen base %/catcher's caught stealing rate) and yet it's treated as a big risk. Sure it can backfire, but getting a hit is a 30% chance for a good hitter while SB% is much higher.

But I understand the mentality.

by OneHitWonder @ Minor League Ball on Oct 4, 2006 8:28 PM EDT reply actions

Losing runners on base and getting outs

Has a devastating impact on an inning for a lot of reasons, including losing "productive outs", losing big innings when the pitcher is tiring, losing the holes as runners are held on, etc.

Once you've got a runner on base, you really, really don't want that runner thrown out on the basepaths!

by BIgMax on Oct 5, 2006 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Steals

Remember that the base runner only had a 30-40% percent chance of getting on base in the first place.

Once he overcomes those odds and gets on base, you really don't want to throw away the runner unless it's really worth it. And at a 70% success rate, it's usually not.

by Yakker on Oct 5, 2006 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

More like 80%

Take everyone that stole 20 bases or more in the MLB this year, and the average success rate is 80%. Only a handful of guys were at or below 70%, among them is Guillen, at 69%. Looking at the success rates of some of the Tigers, and it's clear they don't put much emphasis on the ability to steal bases. They got caught a lot. They stole 60 bases and got caught 40 times. Ouch.

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -Red Barber

by e 6 on Oct 5, 2006 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions