Crystal Ball: Brian McCann

by John Sickels on Oct 30, 2006 11:54 AM EST in News

Brian McCann Crystal Ball

Remember that the rigors of the catching position and the almost-inevitable injuries can wear down even the best hitters.

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vastly underrated

So you think he had the best season of his career at age 22?

I think you're vastly underrating Mr. McCann, who would have probably had an even better season if not for the nagging foot/ankle injury.

Watching him at the plate, it's clear that he has 30-35 HR power and his power is to all fields.

I actually think he can win an MVP award or two in his career, given health of course.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Oct 30, 2006 12:06 PM EST reply actions

Also of note

He seems like a perfect candidate to play out the latter stages of his career at 1B, which would help him maintain numbers at the plate deep into his career.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Oct 30, 2006 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

A move to 1b

does seems likely for him when he gets older. His biggest strength is his bat; one that's good enough to play 1b or LF.

A catcher having a .960 OPS at the age of 22 is amazing.

by argh on Oct 30, 2006 12:19 PM EST up reply actions

I think McCann's overall numbers will be much better, with a switch to 1B or DH likely by age 33 or so. I also don't see him as a life long Brave, my guess is after the 2011 season(estimated FA year) he's gone somewhere else. He's going to be in his offensive prime at age 27, combine that with free agency, and he'll get much bigger money than Atlanta will fork over.

I don't get enjoyment out of reading baseball books. I'd rather watch a sci-fi movie on TV. -Joe Morgan, Emmy winning BASEBALL analyst

by gatling on Oct 30, 2006 12:27 PM EST reply actions

hometown factor

McCann's a hometown kid, so that might be enough to keep him in Atlanta and it might be enough to make the Braves fork over the cash to keep him. The Braves are all about homegrown talent and McCann could easily become the face of the franchise when casual fans realize that Francouer isn't as good as they think he is.

It would benefit McCann the most to move to the AL where he could DH on off days and eventually move to a split C/DH role. If he does that, he could end up with one of the best catching careers in baseball history.

Another possibility I've never seen mentioned is that the Braves could have a C/1B platoon established between McCann and Saltalamacchia to keep them fresh and healthy. That would probably be the best situation for the team, but it would also make LaRoche the odd man via trade unless he would welcome a move to LF.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Oct 30, 2006 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

Ok

If you have seen LaRoche run, you would never suggest that he could play anywhere in the outfield.

Plus one other thing we don't know about yet, is how the ownership of the Braves is going to shake out in the future. If they ever get an owner willing to spend money, they could keep McCann, also by the time McCann reaches free agency Chipper and his mammoth salary will most likely be off the books.

by JFP on Oct 30, 2006 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

So

you're predicting a HOF career for this guy who isn't even the best catching prospect on his team?

by mroak89 on Oct 30, 2006 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

Question

I hope I am misunderstanding your post but are you saying that Salty is a better catching prospect than McCann?

Dutin Pedroia .... a poor man's Ronny Cedeno - Theo Epstein

by the pinstripes on Oct 31, 2006 9:30 AM EST up reply actions

Maybe

you replied to the wrong post, because I don't recall predicting anything about McCann's career. I talked about the Braves ownership situation, and how that might affect his free agent future.

by JFP on Oct 31, 2006 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

Alon

My reply was to Alon, not pinstripes

by JFP on Oct 31, 2006 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

My reply

was to youalreadyknow, no offense meant JFP

by mroak89 on Nov 11, 2006 9:23 AM EST up reply actions

McCann.

I think catchers are almost like predicting pitchers, you never know what the wear and tear will do to them. The braves seemed to look like they will make an effort to prolong his career by resting him occasionally. He platooned to start the year and then once he started hitting great they just rested him once a week.

He is a tough kid though, he played with that high ankle sprain and it made him so slow the only way he could extra bases was if he hit it out of the park. It looked painfull just to see him hobble around the bases.

He never hit below .300 for any month and he actually had a higher OPS in the second half than the first half, I think he wins an MVP in the next few years if the braves get back into the playoffs. He is the best young hitter I have seen come up for the braves including Chipper.

by cajunrevenge on Oct 30, 2006 2:22 PM EST reply actions

real question

The real question is who are the idiotic 13% who voted that his peak won't be that good...

Hello people, the peak of that crystal ball is 2006. AKA the past.. so unless Michael J Fox comes along with a Delorean and a time machine and erases the 2006 season from the record books, it's safe to say that his peak already WAS that good.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Oct 30, 2006 2:29 PM EST reply actions

Stop overrating him

so early in his career... Give him a few more years, and remember that people have amazing sophomore years followed by dud third years for various reasons, including pitchers learning his weaknesses, the wear and tear of the long MLB season, and the general return to norm that inevitably occurs.

If I were a Braves fan (and I'm a Phillies/A's fan... bah), I would be ECSTATIC with this CB.

by mroak89 on Oct 30, 2006 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

overrating?

All I said was that the people who voted "peak won't be that good" are absolute morons since John predicted that his peak season was in fact, his 2006 season.

Maybe you do believe in time travel... I'll believe it when I see it.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Oct 30, 2006 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

Makes sense

I make a comment that you're overrating him and you immediately jump to the conclusion that I think his peak will be this year and that time travel is possible.

I think his peak will be better. It might not be much better, he had a hell of a year this year and exceeded most people's highest expectations. But you're talking Hall of Fame, and I think that's simply too big of an expectation for ANY rookie/young player. Pujols included. HOF is simply too far in the future, too many things could happen to derail it. If all things go perfectly, MAYBE he has a chance at producing like you expect him. Overrating is a broad term, you're raving about this 22 year old like he's the next coming of Yogi Berra. I'm just saying to relax.

And for the freaking record, time travel is theoretically possible. e=mc^2, theory of relativity... You go really fast, and crazy things happen, including the bending of time's effect. And theoretically, if you go from said faster than speed of light to 0 mph, theoretically you go a little ways back. The only problem is that we currently don't have lightspeed capabilities, since mass increases to infinity as speed does too.

Not saying that it's gonna happen. But it's on the same plane as your budding McCann-for-HOF argument.

by mroak89 on Oct 30, 2006 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

LOL

I had to chuckle at the time travel comment...

by Dfarth on Oct 31, 2006 12:26 AM EST up reply actions

Additionally

it's arguable as to his peak. He has a couple seasons in there that are very solid, bb/so, OBP, avg, and overall power wise. See late 20s and early 30s.

by mroak89 on Oct 30, 2006 11:23 PM EST up reply actions

re: real question

John Titor FTW!

http://www.treasuretrooper.com/32645

by brandnew on Oct 30, 2006 11:31 PM EST up reply actions

In all fairness,

I think we are shortchanging him a great deal by wiping out his age 26 and 27 seasons. If he is able to extrapolate what he did this past year over the next 5-10 and become one of the more prolific catchers in the game, then taking away several years where he will be entering his prime is not fair to him.

Also would like to see an add-on to the CB what position he plays through his entire career. Do we forecast a move to another position?

by wildthang on Oct 30, 2006 2:35 PM EST reply actions

McCann

If we assume McCann will be injured this much, this CB seems right. McCann is a plus average hitter, probably right around a .300 career hitter. .293 isn't far off. The power looks about right...I never thought of McCann as a 35+ HR hitter.

by limozeen on Oct 30, 2006 3:38 PM EST reply actions

Compare w/ Joe Mauer Crystal Ball

It seems strange to me that John's Crystal Ball for Joe Mauer shows almost no projected injuries, while McCann has so many, given that Mauer has already been plagued by leg problems in his young career, and is far taller and thinner than McCann, a body type that just asks for trouble.

Of course, it ain't scientific, and I'm just a homer. But it sure is cool to root for a player whose Crystal Ball says he'll hit 250 homers, drive in 1000 runs, bat .300 in his lifetime--and believe it's pessimistic!

by alexwithclass on Oct 30, 2006 4:53 PM EST reply actions

Good Point

I know that John is a big Mauer fan...but he projects hiim to play in 550 more games...or approximately 3.5 more seasons worth of games...in approximately the same amount of total years in the league. He does project a position swith for Mauer...but still - that is a huge difference.

by Dfarth on Oct 30, 2006 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

AL catchers

He can get alot of ABs as a DH too

by Fett42 @ Minor League Ball on Oct 30, 2006 7:18 PM EST up reply actions

"plagued"

Is a little strong it's the only injury he's ever had. And they have been protecting him accordingly Is it a issue yes but it's not like he's had more problems with it.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 30, 2006 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

Compare w/ Joe Mauer RE: Height

Looking at MLB.com they are just 1 inch apart in height.

Every time I see McCann it's obvious how tall he is, he dwarfs the umpires when he stands up.

by Mudcatsfan on Nov 8, 2006 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

McCann

I voted too pessimistic, his peak will be better, but after taking another look, I would say this is about right.

We see that outside injuries, McCann is a .300+ hitter in his prime, with good (25HR) power, and an excellent K/BB. That's pretty much how I think of McCann.

From this career path, his power and K/BB rate is comparable to Gary Carter, although the contact is significantly better and the overall career is shorter. I know it's not a good comparison overall, but basically what I'm saying is that this would be an excellent career, that falls short of HoF status only due to injury and positional wear and tear.

by sasquatch83 on Oct 30, 2006 5:08 PM EST reply actions

How bout this?

Mike Piazza. Discuss...

by MPK on Oct 30, 2006 5:13 PM EST reply actions

I think

Somewhere between Piazza and Pudge Rodriguez. I don't expect McCann to consistently put up near-40 homers, but somewhere between 25 and 30, more than Pudge for most of his career. McCann may also have a few very good years (40 HR) like Pudge had his run of 30.

In the name of David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Lastings Milledge. Amen.

by BlackOps on Oct 30, 2006 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

Re: 40

Catchers in the NL rarely get much more than 500-520 ABs. Often less than that. Forty homers is pretty damn tough to reach in 500 ABs. Not impossible but much easier for a non-catcher.

Bobby Crosby - a poor man's Adam Everett.

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Oct 30, 2006 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

Short Changing McCann

I agree with everything YouAlreadyKnow has stated in regards to McCann. Just actually watch him play and understand that he is already one of the best hitters in the NL. He hits the ball all over the field. He has SPECIAL all over him and a guy i think will shine in the postseason for many years as a clutch hitter.

He does have 35 homer potential easily...but at catcher i dont think he will reach that. At 1B he definitely could. I would take McCann over every young hitter in the NL age 25 or younger not named Cabrera. The braves were right when they said he had all the potential in the world and the people who thought he would just be solid were wrong.

Watching Joe Mauer in the playoffs dissapointed me. He didnt play with any fire to me it seemed. Maybe thats how he carries himselves. but he stunk in that series.

by bravitos5122 on Oct 30, 2006 7:24 PM EST reply actions

Really?

Wright, Reyes, Zimmerman, Hanley, Utley... and thats just the NL East.

by JD Sussman on Oct 30, 2006 9:14 PM EST up reply actions

McCann.

McCann posted a higher OPS than all of them except Cabrera playing at a less offensive position. Obviously catcher is not the ideal position for a franchise player, but I think he is the best pure hitter outside of Cabrera. He was younger than all of them except Zimmerman and he actually had over a 1.000 OPS in the second half, I think he could do it in a full season. Piazza was 26 before he had a season as good as McCann had last year.

I think McCann will move to first at some point. I think at one point if htey dont have a good 1B and a good catching prospect ready they wont hesitate to move him. I think he moves by the time he hits 30 to protect him long term.

by cajunrevenge on Oct 30, 2006 9:36 PM EST up reply actions

brian

mccan's batting reminds me of lance berkman..

Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Oct 31, 2006 2:28 AM EST up reply actions

Well

Personally I think McCann is already better than Reyes, and since he played with a bad injury this year, I think he has more room to improve. Both are young, but I don't think Reyes will ever touch a .950+ OPS. Wright and McCann is debatable, but I think they're pretty close at this point considering Wright's lack of progression. McCann's just been better than Zimmerman so far, and Hanley isn't close IMO. Utley is 27 or 28 I believe.

http://www.treasuretrooper.com/32645

by brandnew on Oct 30, 2006 11:31 PM EST up reply actions

yes, really

McCann is just as good as a hitter than any of those you named. He's certainly a better hitter than Zimm, Hanley and Reyes.

Dutin Pedroia .... a poor man's Ronny Cedeno - Theo Epstein

by the pinstripes on Oct 31, 2006 9:35 AM EST up reply actions

Fire

Maybe they should send him to AAA until he shows it. :)

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Oct 30, 2006 11:44 PM EST up reply actions

That is..

A near hall of fame career already, very nice, almost Jorge Posada like.

by RollingWave on Oct 30, 2006 8:13 PM EST reply actions

An interesting CB

Hello everyone

I find B-Mac a pretty interesting player, so I would like to post my opinion of the Crystal Ball. My first reaction, like many of yours, is that the Crystal Ball is too pessimistic. John has McCann's 2006 season the year that he has his highest average and his most doubles...and near career highs in RBI's, extra base hits, and BB/K ratio. In other words, despite the fact that McCann is young (22) and was in his first full season, John doesn't think McCann will drastically improve any aspect of his game in the future.

On the other hand, I see a great young player that had a great season in his first full year. Like many great young hitters that excite me, I am inclined to think that McCann will get even better. In a post earlier this year, I opined that McCann offered David Wright's hitting ability from the catcher position. A comparison of Wright to McCann shows many similarities...and an argument can even be made that McCann trumps Wright when taking in ages and major league experience. There are virtually no experts that believe Wright has maximized his potential, yet some feel McCann will not get that much better.

Ultimately, it is hard for me to disagree with this Crystal Ball. If McCann's career were to follow this path, he would be one of the best offensive catchers ever, make several All-Star games, and could have an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. As much as I respect John's opinion, however, I feel that McCann has the ability to outperform this projection. I attribute some of the skepticism about his ceiling to the fact that he was less heralded as a minor leaguer. I think we in the prospecting community can deceive ourselves into thinking that because a player did not put up great statistics in the minors, they will not be able to put up great statistics in the majors. While this is often true, it is often false as well - and I believe McCann is one of those cases. For now, I will give him the same benefit of the doubt that is given to Mauer, Wright, and Reyes, and assume that the sky is the limit.

JMHO

by Dfarth on Oct 30, 2006 8:41 PM EST reply actions

hmm?

You think these are HOF numbers? I disagree, i dont think it is even close. But i do think he could over shoot this projection and get there. Just not with these numbers, not with his Defense. Though i hear he calls a great game.

by JD Sussman on Oct 30, 2006 9:17 PM EST up reply actions

McCann,

Smoltz really liked his game calling last year. In 05 he made McCann his personal catcher even after Estrada came off the DL. It really is a great story seeing as McCann once got an autograph from Smoltz when he was 7 years old.

by cajunrevenge on Oct 30, 2006 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

well

i dont think they are quite HOF #s, but consider of the catchers in the HOF right now, the HR total would fall 5th out of 14, the average would fall 5th out of 14, hits 8th of 14, rbis 7th out of 14... i know that doesnt take into account different offensive eras, etc, etc, but he certainly wouldn't look terribly out of place, especially when i and many others think these numbers are somewhat pessimistic

by abravesfan on Oct 30, 2006 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

Well

I said outside shot, which means they are probably not good enough to get in...

The definition I like the most for being Hall of Fame worthy is being the best at his position for at least five years. I certainly think that McCann could be the best catcher in the NL for the next five years, if not longer...

by Dfarth on Oct 30, 2006 10:05 PM EST up reply actions

HOF numbers

check out teh BBREF pages for Bill Dickey, Mickey Cochrane, Gabby Hartnett and Ernie Lombradi- HOFers all
the CB above certaibly does represe nt HOF #s FOR A CATCHER

by Johnny Ruin on Oct 31, 2006 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

great post

very well said.

Dutin Pedroia .... a poor man's Ronny Cedeno - Theo Epstein

by the pinstripes on Oct 31, 2006 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

16 years of catching!

Thats a tough gig.

I have a couple of comments and or observations.

I like John's assumption that McCann becomes a franchise face. However, I see him garnering roughly the same stats in 12/13 yrs rather than 16.

The CB doesn't give him many big RBI and or run years. Don't you see McCann as someone who will be batting 3-5 for most of his career?

The Crystal Ball feature here is fantastic.

by duke on Nov 1, 2006 9:00 AM EST reply actions

Peak

I think McCann's peak will probably be slightly better than this year, but this season was amazing. Brian would be hard to progress much farther than he is now, i think he will hit for a little more power (although raw numbers look less impressive than they really are given he missed some playing time and didn't hit for many homers in the first half). And his Plate discipline will probably improve a bit. If any of you watched him at all this season you can see he understands the situation and the at bat. He's a smart player as a lot of catchers are. In the long run i can see him hitting for more power than John has him for. Probably a couple more 30 HR seasons and a rising K/BB rate mean he could possibly put up a couple more big years. The only part of this season i'm not sure he can reproduce on a regular basis is his BA. We'll see

by yondaime4 on Nov 1, 2006 7:23 PM EST reply actions

his second half

he was just preposterous down the stretch. it seriously got to the point where i was checking box scores thinking, "ok, double or homer for mccann tonight? ... wow, both! awesome!" i mean, every night, if he played, mark it down. i don't know how or why, but i don't question it.

by wily mo on Nov 2, 2006 3:53 AM EST up reply actions

He was the MVP of the team

And, considering the guys around him, Andruw Jones and Chipper Jones, Edgar Renteria and Marcus Giles, Adam LaRoche and Jeff Francouer, that's saying something. McCann was by far our most important offensive player from beginning to end of the season, and he's 22 YEARS OLD! I LOVE THIS KID SO MUCH!

by alexwithclass on Nov 2, 2006 10:52 AM EST reply actions