Papelbon/McCarthy et al

by Shep on Oct 28, 2006 9:55 AM EDT Comment 18 comments

Papelbon and McCarthy are set to move from bullpen to rotation full time next year. Any thoughts on what we can expect from them in starting roles?

Frankly, I wonder if McCarthy may be better than Paps in this capacity. He has that great curve to go with the good FB and I'm not sure whant Paps secondary pitches are as he just blew the ball by hitters last year.

Any others making the move that you can think of?

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Paps

I think Paps is going to do better. He was a dominant closer last year, showing he can take the pressure, and starting is less pressure than closing (not to say there isn't pressure). McCarthy is going to be good, but Paps might be great.

by kramerica1515 on Oct 28, 2006 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

Depends on how Paps' shoulder acts in ST and early on.

by The Rocc on Oct 28, 2006 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

McCarthy

does he have a third plus (or at least average) pitch?

its tough to last as an MLB starter with just a sick curve and FB.... just ask Rich Hill.

I'll be the first A+ prospect... www.myspace.com/posingforpennies

by ufoboy90 on Oct 28, 2006 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I havent seen him much....

... but McCarthy has thrown a few excellant changeups - good placement and really goodmovement. I dont know if thats at all consistant or if I just say him on a good day but I remember seeing him throw it and thinking "Wow, hes gonna be real tough to hit".

by grozzy on Oct 28, 2006 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i have high hopes for McCarthy

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it an old scouts take that its harder to spot breaking balls out of the bullpen? McCarthy's best pitch is his curve.

I think McCarthy struggles have to do with that and obviously homers. At 22 and with a starting gig I think he corrects both in time.

by Team Moneyball on Oct 28, 2006 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wainwright

don't forget about adam wainwright moving into the rotation next year. everyone knows about his fastball and great curve, but you got to see how good his slider is last night in that Inge at bat when he struck him out on 3 straight sliders.

by fewgoodcards on Oct 28, 2006 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

OK

We won't. But we are talking about Papelbon and McCarthy.

by kramerica1515 on Oct 28, 2006 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

Whoops. Nevermind. Didnt read the last part of the diary.

Anywho congrats on the Cards victory.

by kramerica1515 on Oct 28, 2006 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

McCarthy

I'll be surprised if McCarthy or Papelbon post an ERA better than 4 next year in a starting role.

The difference in starting and relieving is a large one.... it's far harder to get guys out the 2nd and 3rd times through the lineup.

Rays in '08....

by youALREADYknow on Oct 28, 2006 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re: mccarthy

mccarthy didn't even have an ERA better than 4 this year pitching out of the pen

by fewgoodcards on Oct 28, 2006 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder

if they're still thinking about moving Zumaya into the rotation in Detroit. I remember hearing rumblings of that midseason. For the record, I think that would be a bad idea - he just seems built to stay a reliever.

On Paps - If he can even approximate the level of dominance he showed this year in the future in relief, then why ruin a good thing? A high-leverage innings guy who manages an ERA among the lowest for any reliever might actually be better for the Red Sox than a slightly above average starter (which is what I think he would be). It's not as if a reliever replacing him would be both cheap and good, whereas if they're smart about it, they can probably find a league average type to start in the #5 spot for much less than it would cost to bring in a commensurate closer to Paps.

On McCarthy - I think he'll do well as a starter for a year or two, but unless he can really improve either a third pitch or his command, the league will catch up to him. Still, I do think moving him into the rotation is the right move.

On Wainright - I still think his relief season was somewhat of a fluke, but I think he'll be a decent innings eating starter, and that's probably more valuable than he'd be as closer, especially once Izzy is back.

by Brickhaus on Oct 28, 2006 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

McCarthy

I'd say that command happens to be one of McCarthy's strengths, not weaknesses. Every once in a while you'll see him have an issue but nothing out of the ordinary for a young pitcher, and he shows signs of eventually being well above-average in that department.

He does need to work on getting the ball down more, even if it comes at the expense of some Ks. I think he'll improve at least somewhat here.

by mrkupe on Oct 29, 2006 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

i think the high fastballs is what he meant by command. he is going to have to get the ball down or he is going to get killed.

by fewgoodcards on Oct 29, 2006 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Zumaya

I think he'll be the closer after Jones contract rans out.

by jahs34 on Oct 29, 2006 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball america scouting report

Here is BBAs scouting report from 2004 team top 10s

Background: Scouts John Kazanas and Joe Butler did an excellent job when they locked onto McCarthy after he had gone 12-0 and struck out 14 per nine innings in junior college in 2002. He led the Rookie-level Arizona and Pioneer leagues in strikeouts in his first two pro seasons, then topped the entire minors with 202 whiffs in 2004.

Strengths: McCarthy's best pitch is a two-seam fastball that generally parks around 90 mph, and he has a four-seamer that hits 92-93. He also has a plus curveball. His height allows him to deliver pitches on a steep downward plane, and he throws strikes at will with an easily repeatable delivery.

Weaknesses: McCarthy has sailed to Double-A without a hitch. He can get better with his changeup, and he has started to make progress and use it more often.

The Future: Chicago couldn't find a fifth starter in 2004, and McCarthy could jump into consideration with a strong spring. He'll probably return to Double-A but won't stay long if he picks up where he left off.

"You also must admit, that outside of the facts, I made a compelling argument!"

by jbluestone on Oct 29, 2006 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Response

McCarthy's change could be an excellent pitch within a short period of time. While I don't think bullpen work was necessarily a bad thing for him from a developmental standpoint, it did seem to hamper his employment of the change. In retrospect, he probably needed to log at least a few starts, in Charlotte or Chicago, to get into a groove as far as changing speeds goes.

Tough call on Papelbon. His secondary stuff is obviously just fine for being an above-average late inning guy, but we still have to wait and see if it's strong enough to let him succeed as a starter, especially once teams start getting multiple looks per game at him.

I think I slightly prefer McCarthy, but not by a huge margin. Papelbon deserves a chance to show what kind of progress he's made with his repertoire.

by mrkupe on Oct 29, 2006 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

good sign

I think it is a good sign that McCarthy and Wainwright (even though he isn't officially part of the thread) started out pitching in relief and then move to the rotation. Best place for a young pitcher to learn the majors is middle relief. Papelbon became the closer out of desparation and handled it great, I wonder why the Bosox are moving him out of it. Who is their closer now?

by LindInMoskva on Oct 29, 2006 5:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re: papelbon

they picked hansen and paid him $4 million to be the closer, but i don't think he is ready yet. i think they have to move papelbon to the rotation though b/c it was so weak last year and absolutely killed them. papelbon should atleast be an average starter and that should win 15 games for them. how's that beckett trade looking now?

by fewgoodcards on Oct 29, 2006 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs