FanPost

Duncan Doughnuts?

Hey all -

There's a ballplayer I simply cannot figure out. This Chris Duncan guy.  I know he's "graduated" from the minors, but he was recently there, and we're talking Cardinals and rookies and stuff on here anyway...

Here are some pertinent data:

Born: 5/5/81 (seasonal age 26 for 2007 season)
6'5", 210
Bats: L
Natural position: 1b
Has also played: LF, RF

2006 MLB: 280 AB: .293/.363/.589 (22hr!)
vs L: .170/.220/.319
vs R: .318/.390/.644

2006 AAA:181 AB: .271/.359/.448 (7hr)
vs L: .229/.260/.292
vs R: .286/.391/.504

2005 AAA:431 AB: .265/.358/.469
(splits unknown)

So, the question is this... approximately how good do you think an average of his three best seasons will be when he's done with his career?

A. Power spike this year is the real deal... he's finally developing. He may always lose a few AB to lefties, but expect his "peaks" to be around .290/.390/.600

B. He's always had good power, but the league will catch up to him a little, and he won't really surpass his 2006. Peaks around: .275/.370/.525 (think: almost as good as Ryan Klesko).

C. Come on - he's shown his true level at AAA. Expect peaks around .265/.360/.470, and almost worthless against lefties.

D. Maybe a little growth from his AAA level, but then you have to account for the dropoff from AAA->MLB, peaks around: .260/.350/.450, nothing against LHP.

E. His MLE from 2006 was .243/.315/.381. Expect his peak (even including 2006 season) to be around .245/.333/.420, and he becomes more-or-less a pinch-hitter or a Pirate.

Thanks!

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