Ian Stewart, Andy LaRoche, or Andy Marte?
by Pawtucket Pat on Oct 11, 2006 9:21 AM EDT
13 comments
I've got Ian Stewart in a dynasty league I'm in, but I've been rattled by reports that he'll be moving off of 3B and into the OF, where I'm already stacked. I need a young 3B for the future, and could potentially trade for either Andy LaRoche or Andy Marte. What should I do? Hold onto Stewart, trade for LaRoche, or trade for Marte, and why?
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LaRoche
by youALREADYknow on Oct 11, 2006 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Marte
Prediction next season: .275/.370/.500, 25hr
Not bad for a Rook, and I don't understand this mantra of "Atlanta and Boston gave up on him, so he must not be good."
Also, you don't even know if LaRoche will make it up next year. Marte will be an everyday player, and I think he will do well, for whatever my opinion is worth.
by ZackAttack on Oct 11, 2006 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ratings
Meanwhile, LaRoche is projected to have gold glove defense at 3B and already is above-average.
Advantage, LaRoche.
Marte draws walks. He used to until his plate discipline dissolved this year. But even so, let's give him the benefit of the doubt there and say he still has the plate discipline. He still strikes out a ton and will have over 100 K's in a full season in the majors.
Meanwhile, LaRoche had more walks than strikeouts this year and more walks overall than Marte (66 to 47).
Advantage, LaRoche.
Let's not even bring into the equation the fact that Marte has failed to hit over .285 at any stop in the minors and hasn't hit .280 since A ball.
Advantage, LaRoche.
So in essence, the only advantage Marte has is power. And LaRoche isn't exactly a slouch in that department with 49 HR over his last 2 seasons.
So why is Marte better "hand's down!"? Maybe it's just because he was built up by the hype machine for the last 4 years and people refuse to move him down prospect lists based on his past ranking.
by youALREADYknow on Oct 11, 2006 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
marte vs laroche
projecting foward, marte seems to be a safer bet then the unexpectedness of laroche's recovery time and recovery ability.
by npurcell on Oct 11, 2006 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ridiculous!
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/andy-marte.shtml
Please take a moment to note the awards he received at every stop he won All-Star in his league. Furthermore, he did so with a young age relative to league factor. To put it boldly, this guy is going to be great. I agree, he has struggled this season. He also has the entire winter and spring to work it out.
Also, please go back and double check the Sickels prospect book, I could be wrong, but I believe he did hit close to .300 along the way (I don't have the books in front of me, sorry). I also will stick with what John has stated-that he will be a very productive everyday player, and he did give him an A- this past year. He was an A the year before.
I respect your sentiment behind going with LaRoche, as he too could be a very productive player, but I personally think Marte will be better. Further, I disagree with the "Hype Machine." Atlanta gave him up b/c they had Chipper and also b/c of their extreme need of a solid SS in the vaccuum left by Furcal. As for boston, well, it's Boston, and Boston has never fully understood the value of young players (unless it is to flip them for older, proven talent). Nothing wrong with this mantra, especially with their wallet, but not the kind of ball for me.
Thanks for the banter though, that's what makes this site a great one.
by ZackAttack on Oct 11, 2006 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Close to .300?
Marte was young for each level he was at, which helped garner some additional hype. I think he'll be an above average (not great) 3b, but will definitely struggle keeping his batting average over .270. He does possess excellent power potential, but I don't see him being that much further ahead of Stewart or Laroche in that category.
I voted for Laroche. There is something very intriguing about Stewart's combination of potential and Coors Field, but with other top 3b options and the fact that he may get bumped to the OF, I would trade him away. I like what Laroche has done this year, cutting his K-rate and hitting for high average (yes, I know he played in a hitter friendly park). The power potential is there (he is said to have more than older brother Adam, but I am sure the Dodgers wouldn't mind Adam's '06 numbers), and it's encouraging that he has improved his approach at the plate. I think he deserves mention as a Top 10-15 prospect.
by rhodehead on Oct 11, 2006 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marte's defense IS above-average!
"Above-average defense? He's PROJECTED to have above-average defense, but his defense was awful this season."
Some considered Aaron Boone's defense to be "awful," and he made 16 E in 101 G in 2006. Marte made 6 E in 50 G in 2006, so projected, he would have made 12, 4 less than Boone. So, Marte was not "awful."
In addition, Joe Crede a highly-regarded defensive 3B, made 10 E in 149 G, 10 E in 130 G, 12 E in 144 G, and 14 E in 151 G in 2006, 2005, 2004, and 2003 respectively. Eric Chavez, who is considered by many to be the best defensive 3B in the game, only made 5 E in 134 G in 2006, but made 15 E in 153 G in 2005, 13 E in 125 G in 2004, 14 E in 154 G in 2003, and 17 E in 143 G in 2002. Marte, projected, would have made 19-20 E in 162 G this season, and considering that he is 22 years old and only in his first extended period in the Majors, I'd say he's above-average now, with a chance to win a few Gold Gloves during his career with continued improvement, which is certainly possible at his age and limited ML experience level.
Conversely, while LaRoche may be considered above-average at the Minor League level, the ML level isn't quite the same game. Going by Marte's error total at AAA Buffalo in 2006, he made something like 19-20 E in only half a season, so all signs suggested he would struggle. Making 6 E in 50 Major League games doesn't suggest "struggling" in my book. Let's wait until LaRoche gets to the ML level before we start comparing Marte's and LaRoche's defense.
"Marte draws walks. He used to until his plate discipline dissolved this year. But even so, let's give him the benefit of the doubt there and say he still has the plate discipline. He still strikes out a ton and will have over 100 K's in a full season in the majors.
Meanwhile, LaRoche had more walks than strikeouts this year and more walks overall than Marte (66 to 47).
Advantage, LaRoche."
LaRoche may have had the advantage this year, but throughout their Minor League careers, Marte's had the better plate discipline. Excluding 2006 for both LaRoche and Marte:
LaRoche: 98 BB in 958 ABs = 0.92 BB/game
Marte: 252 BB in 1867 ABs = 1.21 BB/game
Marte has had the better plate discipline. Also, recall that Marte's 2005 included a stint at AAA Richmond AND Atlanta, while LaRoche hasn't even reached the Majors yet, and has only had 202 AAA ABs, so just because LaRoche did better in 2006 does not mean that LaRoche will have better plate discipline than Marte at the ML level.
"Let's not even bring into the equation the fact that Marte has failed to hit over .285 at any stop in the minors and hasn't hit .280 since A ball.
Advantage, LaRoche."
Keep in mind that LaRoche did play JC ball, while Marte did not. Also keep in mind that LaRoche was 3 years older than Marte playing in the South Atlantic League and 2-3 years older playing in the Southern League. So while LaRoche did hit better than Marte at those levels, the advantage isn't as great as you imply because LaRoche played JC ball and was older than Marte at each level.
"So in essence, the only advantage Marte has is power. And LaRoche isn't exactly a slouch in that department with 49 HR over his last 2 seasons."
Keep in mind that the PCL is a hitter's league, including Las Vegas (some call it a "Coors Field,") and LaRoche's HR rate did go up there, hitting 10 HR in 202 ABs, 0.44 HR/game, whereas at AA Jacksonville of the Southern League, he hit 9 in 227 ABs in 2005 and 9 in 230 ABs in 2006, 0.36 HR/game and 0.35 HR/game respectively. In LaRoche's defense, he did hit 21 HRs in 249 ABs in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2005, or 0.76 HR/game, but compared to the rest of his stats, that is looking more like an outlier unless he can put up park- and league-adjusted equivalent numbers at AAA Las Vegas and/or Los Angeles, which is debatable at this point, especially after the double labrum injuries.
I agree with you that Marte isn't "hands-down" better than LaRoche (no offense, RoversFan,) but LaRoche isn't "hands-down" better than Marte either in my opinion. Being that Marte has made the Majors quicker than LaRoche could be a valid reason why someone would rank Marte higher than LaRoche.
Plus, referring to the fantasy question posed by Pawtucket Pat, it's very likely Marte will be playing regularly in Cleveland next year; I'm not sure what LaRoche's status is after his double labrum injuries - how soon will he be back and will the Dodgers have him start in LA (doubtful) or will he likely play at AAA Las Vegas for a few months at least (likely)? If that's the case, I think trading for Marte instead of LaRoche could be a solid move, especially if you are expecting production at the ML level from one of these 3B next year.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Oct 12, 2006 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IndiansFan
I really like Marte, and no, I'm not an Indians honk...I just really think he's going to be a solid player, and I hate that others have given up on him so soon.
by ZackAttack on Oct 12, 2006 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check out TheBaseballCube!
You may want to check out TheBaseballCube.com, specifically, this link on Andy Marte - you'll see that many of his relevant stats are there, all arranged in chronological order. That might prove helpful in the future when your books aren't readily accessible.
Two notes about TheBaseballCube:
- Sometimes, their stats are inaccurate; for instance, they state that Marte's DOB is Nov. 21, 1983, but MLB displays Marte's DOB as Oct. 21, 1983, so they're not always accurate - you may want to double-check some of the stats first before you use them.
- Sometimes, like in the case of Ryan Garko and Kevin Kouzmanoff, a year's statistics will be duplicated and added in to their total career statistics, so you may have to do some subtraction to get their true career statistics. I don't know why that happens with some players and not with others, but it's a good idea to keep an eye out for those instances, or otherwise, your statistics and calculations will be off.
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Oct 12, 2006 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IndiansFan
Marte's error total was very high in AAA and although it did fall off in the last 2 weeks in the majors, he had something like 4 errors in his first week in the bigs after being called up.
As for LaRoche's glove not being proven until he reaches the majors... he's projected to have gold glove defense. Gold glove > above-average.
As for the plate discipline before 2006, the age relative to league in A ball, and the rest of those factors... they all prove my point that Marte's rating is based on a 3-4 year old reputation for playing well in leagues at a young age. It should be quite disturbing that he seems to have not progressed at all in the last 2 seasons and has statistically regressed in some aspects. Meanwhile, LaRoche has done nothing but get better in each of his minor league seasons.
So who you pick for fantasy purposes depends on whether you need power numbers from 3B in 2006 or better all-around numbers in the 2nd half of 2006 (when it's fairly obvious LaRoche will be up) and beyond. Maybe you should wait until more details about his labrum surgery are released.
Long-term > short-term in fantasy sports. Take LaRoche if the labrum surgery goes fine.
by youALREADYknow on Oct 12, 2006 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts!
Regarding Marte's defense, so he made 4 errors in his first week at the ML level - I'm sure many other prospects who have butterflies in their stomachs and are trying extra hard to impress their organizations struggle defensively for a period of time when they first arrive in the Majors. Doesn't the fact that he only made two more errors over the next few months say something about his defense being above-average to Gold Glove caliber?
Plus, as I stated in my last post, Crede made between 10-14 errors over the last four years, and most consider him a very good defensive 3rd baseman. Eric Chavez is considered by many to be the best defensive 3rd baseman, winning several Gold Gloves, and he made between 5-17 errors over the last 5 years. You don't think that the 22-year old Marte who would have made around 19-20 errors in his first extended period at the ML level can improve enough defensively where he only makes around 15 errors a season, give or take? Wouldn't that put him in line to be one of the better defensive 3rd basemen in the game, as well as possibly put him in the hunt for some Gold Gloves? Judging on Crede and Chavez's defensive statistics, I would think it's certainly a possibility that Marte would rank among the game's best defensive 3rd baseman and would be in contention for some Gold Gloves.
By the way, regarding LaRoche's defense, so he's projected to have Gold Glove defense; Indians' prospect Michael Aubrey was also projected to have Gold Glove defense at 1B, but he's still not playing up here, so we have no idea whether his 1B defense is GG-caliber or not. Therefore, let's wait until LaRoche gets up to the Majors and displays that GG-caliber defense at 3B before we start saying or impling that LaRoche is GG-caliber. Like I said, doing it in the Majors and doing it in the Minors aren't quite the same thing, due to the faster speed and added pressure of the ML game.
Regarding Marte's plate discipline, yes, it faltered this season; some of that might be due to the fact that the Indians were trying to get Marte to use the whole field more, adjusting his swing path a bit. Part of it was probably also due to the fact that Marte was pressing to try impress his new organization and prove that he was worth trading Crisp for. Therefore, his faltering this season shouldn't be ignored, but it shouldn't be overemphasized either as if Marte has lost all of his ability; there were several possible reasons why his plate discipline was down this year. But, his plate discipline did NOT falter in 2005 - he had a 64 BB/83 K ratio in 389 ABs - that's a 0.77 BB/K ratio and a 0.16 BB/AB ratio - that was the best BB/K ratio of his career, so again, Marte faltered this season, but hasn't been faltering for the last few seasons as you mentioned.
Something else I meant to address in your last post about Marte likely striking out over 100 times a season:
- Travis Hafner struck out 111 times in 454 ABs
- Alex Rodriguez struck out 139 times in 572 ABs
- Derek Jeter struck out 102 times in 623 ABs
- David Ortiz struck out 117 times in 558 ABS
Like I've said elsewhere, I'm not totally sold on Marte myself - I have concerns about his ability to use the whole field and hit for at least a .270 BA. I was concerned when he first came up about his defense because he made more errors at AAA Buffalo than Kevin Kouzmanoff did at AA Akron, in roughly the same number of games. The Indians did say they worked with Marte's throwing motion at AAA Buffalo, which could have caused him to make more errors on his throws (he had about an even number of fielding and throwing errors.) However, watching him defensively at the ML level, he was a considerable upgrade over Aaron Boone; his defense is at least above-average, if not better.
Therefore, I'm not totally sold he'll be the great player scouts project for him either, but I have my doubts on LaRoche as well, and right now, Marte is up here, working out the kinks; LaRoche isn't even at the ML level yet, plus has two labrum surgeries to come back from. That's not just a small "if" you are referring to, though I agree with you that Pawtucket Pat should wait and see how LaRoche progresses from these surgeries to see if he returns to form and if he plays in LA in the second half of next year (a possibility, but it depends on how quickly he recovers from the surgeries and how quickly he regains his form, presuming he does.) Both are solid 3B prospects, and both have advantages and disadvantages; it's a difficult decision and I wish Pawtucket Pat luck on his decision.
Take care and have a great day!
by indiansfan on Oct 12, 2006 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well said
One thing I will admit is that the power is there. There's no question about that.
by youALREADYknow on Oct 13, 2006 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marte
by kramerica1515 on Oct 11, 2006 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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