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HOF Nominees

We spend a lot of time debating what prospects might do but I am interested to hear some thoughts on people after they are done.

I heard some interesting commentary yesterday by someone who votes for the HOF (name escapes me) and he talked about how he is now becoming more sabermetrically oriented when evaluating the nominees.

With that said - he felt Bert Blyleven should be a sure vote-in for the HOF.  He said that his stats (sabermetrically) put him on par as a top 10 pitcher of the 70's and 80's and right there with the likes of Seaver and Gibson in many respects.  He talked about Blyleven truly being the victim of bad luck and bad support.  Thoughts?

There are a lot of interesting people on the list this year - Andre Dawson, Jim Rice, Bruce Sutter, Gossage, ect.

Rice is another one that was in the top 5 to 10 in many categories like slg, total bases, etc for the better part of a 10 year stretch and in the top 5 for MVP voting many of those years as well.

Sutter had probably what was the best 7 year run of a closer in his time and redefined the role and invented a pitch.

Dawson is in a group with Barry Bonds and I think Willie Mays for some statistical accomplishments.

How do these guys stack up for everyone here?  Does anyone have any information on how these guys graded as prospects?  Back then - all I remember were the "future stars" baseball cards that had 3 guys from each team.  

BTW - I put down as many names as I could for the poll so a few may have been left off.

Poll
Who Should Be Elected In?
Albert Belle
4 votes
Will Clark
3 votes
Dale Murphy
5 votes
Dave Parker
0 votes
Andre Dawson
11 votes
Jim Rice
12 votes
Bert Blyleven
58 votes
Bruce Sutter
2 votes
Goose Gossage
18 votes
Alan Trammell
8 votes

121 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments

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sutter
didn't invent the splitter. its a misconception, rob neyer/bill james go into this in their book on pitching. not trying to nitpick, as i think you stated the summaries of the players listed quite well. have a great day!

by DavidWrightismyGod on Jan 6, 2006 8:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hall
Blyleven and Belle should be in without a doubt. And probably Trammell. I'm not in favor of putting relief pitcher in the Hall, but Gossage probably deserves it since he was dominant for 100+ innings a season. Sutter? No way.

Jim Rice does not deserve to be in the Hall. I look at his stats and he's not nearly as great as everyone thinks. 298/.352/.502, 382 HR. He played good defense, as well, but it doesn't seem worthy of Hall mention.

Will Clark probably should get in. He put up some huge seasons and his career batting line is very impressive. Great defender as well.

Very few people have had a 7-year peak like Albert Belle. Just the greats like Ruth and Bonds, really. What he did from '93 to '99 was mind-boggling. He deserves to be in.

by Klostrophobic on Jan 6, 2006 9:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Belle
Having watched Albert Belle play his most influential years in Cleveland, I have first-hand experience watching him dominate games.  However, I don't think he should be in the Hall.  Especially, a "no doubt" Hall of Famer.  He was a masher, sure, and could carry a team on his back, sure.  And I don't care that the guy was a jerk off the field, he could mash.  

But when it comes down to it, he comes up short in a lot of areas.  He was completely lacking in the field, and below average on the bases.  But to be in the Hall, as a masher, you have to dominate for 10 years and then be really, really good for another 5-10, in my opinion.  He didn't do that.  Heck, he didn't even dominate for a full 10 years.  He dominated from 92-96, 98 and 99, was really good in 91, 97, and 2000.  He dominated for 7 years.  He put up numbers for the strike-shortened seasons that were crazy - 209 games, 87 doubles, 86 HR, 227 RBI.  That's crazy numbers.

But if we're talking the best players in the game, for long stretches and then very, very good for long stretches, I don't think he makes it.  3 good seasons and 7 great seasons, ONLY at the plate, don't make for a HOF vote.  At least with Rice and Dawson they were able to put up good numbers for another 10 years or so (relative to era).  There's a case to be made for them.  But Belle comes up well short in the duration, fielding, and running aspects of the game.

by lenred on Jan 6, 2006 11:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Belle is the modern day version of Dick Allen.  

by sdbaseballfan on Jan 7, 2006 12:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rice
Sorry, gotta comment on your statement that Rice "played good defense as well."  When the Sox were absolutely forced to play him in the field (as during Yaz declining years or when Don Baylor was the regular DH) he was notable for being one of the most atrocious fielders in their history (which is saying something).  Statue-esque would adequately describe his half-hearted fielding efforts.  Whenever possible they DH'd him.

I totally agree with your assessment that he's not a HOFer, however.  His peak was too short and his long decline too awful ("world's slowest singles hitter" and "walking double-play" were a couple local nicknames for him in the 80s).

by Roger on Jan 6, 2006 12:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rice
I totally disagree that Rice shouldn't make the HOF.

Over a 10 year period he averaged: .300 BA, 30 HR, 100 RBI.. that's the kind of high-level production over an extended period that merits a spot in the Hall. Some more info:

Top 5 in AL MVP voting 5 times (won it in 1978)
Top 10 in batting avg. 6 times
Top 10 in OPS 6 times (top 5 4 times, and led the league in 1978)
Top 10 in total bases 9 times, led the league 4 times, including 1978, when he had a ridiculous 406 TB (the first player to reach that mark since Joe DiMaggio)
Top 10 in HR 7 times, led the league 3 times
Top 10 in RBI 9 times, led the league twice (top 5 3 times)

Compare Rice to HOFer Orlando Cepeda (they played roughly the same number of games):

Cepeda: .297 BA, 379 HR, 1365 RBI, .350 OBP, .499 SLG, .849 OPS
Rice: .298 BA, .382 HR, 1451 RBI, .352 OBP, .502 SLG, .854 OPS

Granted, he played 3 or 4 fewer seasons, but recent inductee Kirby Puckett's numbers don't compare to Rice's. (though, to be fair, Puckett gets credit for 6 gold gloves)

From a recent Boston Globe article:

"Other than Rice, the only retired players with at least 382 homers and a career average of .298 are Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, Mel Ott, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams. Of the 17 players (who've been on the ballot) boasting at least 350 homers and a .290 average, all are in Cooperstown -- except for Rice and Dick Allen."

Rice's overall best season (1978) was the type of year only HOFers produce:

.315 BA, 121 R, 46 HR, 139 RBI, .370 OBP, .600 SLG, .970 OPS, 213 H, 406 TB

He posted similar numbers in 1979.

Rice was a dominant hitter from 1975 to 1986, and he should be in the HOF.

by TheWhaleLives on Jan 6, 2006 2:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Poor comparisons
Two items to quibble with on your comparisons:
  1.  Cepeda was a borderline HOFer who compiled the majority of numbers during the most pitcher friendly period in ML history.  Rice played during a fairly normal statistical time period.
  2.  The comparison of BA and HRs with others is skewed by the levels listed.  Rice is at the absolute bottom of both cutoff points. Every single player listed with more than 382 HRs has from nearly 100 to 370 more HRs than Rice.  With the exception of Mantle (.298) they all had higher BAs than Rice.  As Bill James writes about this type of argument, " It doesn't mean anything unless the player is actually as good as the players he is being compared to."  I don't think anyone would argue that Rice is as good as Aaron, Mays, Ruth, etc.

by rcobeen on Jan 6, 2006 3:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Borderline, but a HOFer
I don't disagree that Cepeda was borderline, or that he played in a more pitcher-friendly era, though that can be overstated. A glance at league offensive averages and run scoring indicates that it was really 65-68 that were way outside of the curve, w/ 67 and 68 being ridiculous aberrations. Anyway, Cepeda only played 30 games in 65, so it was about 3 season where his numbers would be down in comparison to Rice's.

In any case, Rice is obviously borderline, so comparisons with similar players would probably be with guys who were also borderline. Rice compares favorably with Cepeda, and Cepeda's a HOFer.

Also, the point of the quote from the Globe discussing Rice's BA and HR totals was obviously not intended as an argument that Rice is as good a player as Williams, Mantle, Mays, etc. If he was that good, we wouldn't need to argue about whether he should be in or not. The quote was intended to show that Rice falls statistically into certain categories inhabited by Hall of Famers, regardless of whether he's at the bottom of those categories among HOFers.

by TheWhaleLives on Jan 6, 2006 4:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dawson
I forgot to mention Dawson. Comparing him to Bonds and Mays is laughable, though.

Basically he didn't hit for a high average, he didn't have any on-base ability and his defense was average. He had a great arm, he was fast and he had some serious power.

He had a couple really great seasons, but I can't justify putting someone in the hall who has a career .323 OBP. It's not like he had Ruthian power to make up for it.

by Klostrophobic on Jan 6, 2006 9:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dawson
I don't understand the reticence of Hall voters when it comes to Dawson, but I think it must have something to do with the fact that he played off the radar in Montreal for too long.  To me he was EASILY the best OF in the majors in the period between Mays and Bonds. Not quite at either of their levels (though his great defense was closer to Mays than to Bonds) but remember the 70s were the era of the pitcher and Dawson's sustained brilliance seems to fading out of people's memories.  You'd think his Cubs ties would give him a little push.

by Roger on Jan 6, 2006 12:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dawson
The sixties were the era of the pitcher, not the 70's.  And Dawson was of the 80's not the 70's.  

by rcobeen on Jan 6, 2006 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He wasn't the best post-Mays player
Ever heard of Reggie Jackson?  Or Dave Winfield?

by Naliamegod on Jan 7, 2006 2:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

just curious....
when Big Frank retires, would you consider him HOF material?

by cincod1 on Jan 6, 2006 1:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No brainer
I think Big Hurt gets in pretty easily, although there's no question he's another sudden decline guy, due in no small part to injuries.  But the guy played almost 2000 games, with almost 7000 ABs, and this is his career batting line:

.307/.427(!)/.568

I think you play that many games with a .995 OPS, you're in, despite your baserunning and defensive liabilities, of which Hurt certainly has his shares.  He was Top 10 in the MVP voting 8 times, he was in the Top 3 5 times, including two wins.  He was top 5 in the league in OPS 8 times, including leading the league in the stat 4 times.  And maybe this is my memory playing tricks on me, but I think the way people view the game has changed a lot in the past decade or so, because I actually think Frank Thomas was a little bit underappreciated in his prime because of the walks.  I remember a lot of talking heads criticize him saying he walked too much and needed to swing more.  I think people then were a little bit more fixated on batting average and home runs than we are today.  In terms of pure counting stats, hes got over 2100 hits, 448 Home runs, 1465 RBIs--but again, he declined pretty precipitously, so those aren't as high as they would have been had he stayed healthy.  But given his 10 year period of dominance from 1991-2000, I think he gets in, first ballot...

by martytomlinson on Jan 6, 2006 6:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can never understand
why Ozzie Smith was a no-brainer when statistically Alan Trammell was better. He was a great offensive SS for that era (the pre-A-Rod era) and was also very good defensively, winnning two gold gloves.  All I know is that Trammell cannot do a back flip.

I am mixed on Albert Belle, but he deserves to be in as much as Jim Rice.  Despite all the hype Rice gets from certain people in the media, Belle will not get that level of media support.

Blyleven and Gossage should both be in.

by count sutton on Jan 6, 2006 9:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The Wiz
You sound like you never saw Ozzie play.  Backflips were the warm-up for argueably the best defensive player to ever grace the field.  Ozzie made the hall because of his defense, comparing Trammell's offense to Ozzie's is missing the point.  If Ozzie played in the AL and his team DH'ed for him instead of the pitcher, he STILL would be in the hall.  His range/arm and his ability to make accurate, off-balance throws while sprinting towards right center field was incredible.  Trammell was good and not saying he shouldn't be in the hall, but there is no comparison between these two IMO.
"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Jan 7, 2006 4:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My opinion
Definitely agree that Blyleven and Gossage should be in.

I don't like Belle the person, which is why I don't think he should be a first-ballot, but I think he's in eventually.

I'm torn on Trammell and Will Clark though - I like both guys and the way they played.  

My issue with Trammell was that he wasn't that consistent offensively.  He'd follow up a season of 130 OPS+ with one of 85 OPS+ - in his career, only 9 or 20 season were played above 100 OPS+ - which definitely hurts him I think.  Of course, you compare him to other shortstops of the era, and he looks pretty good.  He also got robbed of an MVP in 1987.  And if you put Trammell in, it's hard to to stick Lou Whitaker in there as well.  I  think they either should make it in together or not at all, and most people it seems are leaning towards not at all.  Which depending on your perspective is either an oversight or a crime against humanity.

Will Clark was never below average.  He was consistently very good to excellent, and his career numbers indicate this.  He was fun to watch as well.  But in this era of offense, what do we do with guys like Clark and John Olerud?  Because if I vote Clark in, I also vote Olerud in.  I think that I'm beginning to be more comfortable with both of them in the Hall, but I'm not entirely convinced yet.

by sasquatch83 on Jan 6, 2006 9:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

typos
Sorry - for Trammell - that's 9 of 20 seasons . . . and "if you put Trammell in, it's hard not to stick Lou in there as well."

by sasquatch83 on Jan 6, 2006 9:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Clark
As a lifelong Giants fan, I have to say I'm shocked that Will's getting serious consideration.  He was one of favorites, but he's another short peak, long decline guy in my mind. His best HR year was a notorious rabbit-ball season ('87) and his power production dipped quickly after that.  He looked like a HOFer in his first 4 or 5 seasons, but the dozen years after that ruined his chances for me.

by Roger on Jan 6, 2006 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

HOF
I believe that Blyleven and Gossage should be in.  I'm not exactly the biggest reliever fanboy in the world, but Goose was dominant for so many years and for a lot more innings than relievers today (back then, we used to drink glass and we liked it!).  At some point, I wouldn't mind seeing Lee Smith get in.  Watching him pitch into the Wrigley shadows was awesome.

As for Clark, Rice, Dawson, etc., I think these were good players, but not great.  Sounding like an arrogant a55, I don't buy the logic that: "Well, Chick Hafey is in, so we need to put Cesar Cedeno in, too."  I want to up the quality of the Hall, not water it down more because there were some bad (and really bad) past decisions.  Those three guys should have been HOFers, but, to me, they just didn't finish strongly enough to warrant inclusion.  For the record, my fave players growing up were Cesar Cedeno, Andre Dawson, pre-injury Ellis Valentine, Jim Rice, and JR Richard.  But I wouldn't put any of them in with a good conscience.

The only other guy I might consider is Trammell.  He had many solid seasons with the bat as squatch points out, and many crappy seasons.  Defensively, he more than held his own, and that's verified by the stats today.  And he had that "leadership" that gets sportswriters all weak-kneed and drippy.  Putting Tram in wouldn't make me physically ill.

"One year ago we knocked on the door. This year, we beat on the door. Next year, we're gonna kick the SOB in." - Bum

by bigfatdrunk on Jan 6, 2006 10:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

If I had a vote...
I'd vote for Blyleven, Trammel and Gossage.  I'm torn a bit on Clark (I think he's rather underappreciated), and I just don't think Belle lasted quite long enough to get in, though I could probably be convinced.  Same with Sutter.  The rest are pretty much no's in my book.
"People think it must be fun to be a super genious, but they don't know how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world." - Calvin

by RVachon on Jan 6, 2006 10:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree...
with rvachon -- Rogie I presume -- though I'd put Sutter and Belle in over Clark if my ballot went that far.

I would, however, be tempted to turn in an empty ballot. I hate the argument that a player deserves to be inducted because someone with worse stats is already in. Two wrongs don't make a right. Blyleven is an interesting case because while I understand all the sabermetric reasons for putting him in, I just never got the sense he was a hall of famer while he was playing.
I never looked at the probables and thought: "Blyleven's pitching, guess we're going to lose tonight." I had that feeling with guys like Jim Palmer.

But I'm sure my apathy toward Blyleven's candidacy stems from the teams he played on and the fact that sportscenter and baseball tonight weren't around to oversaturate us with highlights. Plus, there were no web sites like this and baseballprospectus to challenge my perceptions.

by bolton on Jan 6, 2006 4:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

3 guys
Blyleven is a no-brainer (as apparently are almost half of the voters).

Goose was the absolutely dominant as a reliever for ten years. From 1975 through 1985 (with 1986 wasted as a starter) Gossage threw 979 innings over 556 games. He allowed an era of only 2.09 and saved 254 games. By comparison, over his best ten year stretch (1996-2005), Rivera has a 2.04 era over 740 innings with 379 saves. Gossage compares pretty favorably to, arguably, the best relief pitcher ever.

Albert Belle was a great player for nine years. If he had a normal three year wind down to pad his career stats, he'd be in without question. (450 hr, 1500 RBI) There are two ways to be a HOFer (in my book) sustained very very goodness over a long period or sustained dominance over a shorter one.  The last couple of years of most guys' careers don't contribute to either.

by devo on Jan 6, 2006 3:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dawson
I personally really think a lot of Dawson.  The one thing about him that actually hurts his overall numbers is that out of 17 full seasons - he only played over 150 games in 6 of thoses seasons.  Many years included 135 type seasons.  

On the other hand - he does have 438 career homeruns, 1591 RBI's and 314 stolen bases along with over 500 doubles and almost 100 triples.  

Defensively - he had 8 seasons of over 10 assists and 157 career assists.  He also is responsible for 30 DP's and played over 1000 games in both CF and RF.  

I personally believe the years in Montreal and the fact that he probably fell short of marks like 500 HR's due to games played may hurt him but he sure was amazing for the Cubs in 1987 (which he played 153 games in) and was one of the most feared OF's in baseball in his time.  He has 4787 Total Bases in 9927 AB's - pretty darn awesome.

by slickwdb on Jan 6, 2006 4:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe Goose and Blylenan
None of the other guys are great. If they are very very good and don't make it normaly then the veterans comitee can put them in if they deserve. Out of the rest you can't name one that had as good a career as Frank Thomas or Jeff Bagwell.

by Shamus on Jan 7, 2006 3:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Still trying to figure out
how Sutter got this huge bandwagon with the HOF voters.  As far as I can tell, he was about comparable to Robb Nen as a player (a few dominant seasons, rapid dropoff, not effective at all when he wasn't great).  Granted, I wasn't around in the 70's, but it seems to me that Goose and even Lee Smith were far superior players to Sutter.  And if having the best of a certain pitch in your generation makes you a hall of famer, then why isn't Blylevyn's bandwagon a lot bigger because of his curve?

by Brickhaus on Jan 7, 2006 11:25 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Here are things about Sutter
He was a dominant closer for the period of 1977 through 1984 wiht one down season in 1983.  His ERA was sub 2.7 7 times, sub 1.60 2 times and what is really interesting about Sutter was that he faced batters.  

He pitched over 100 innings 5 times and faced over 400 batters in a season 6 times.  

He has a career 2.83 ERA, 300 saves and over 1000 innings pitched and was in the MVP voting multiple times which is why he gets so much love.

For what it is worth - most say he is a sure in as no one has ever had as many votes as he did last year and not made it in the following year.

I am not sure if I think he deserves it but he is one of the top closers you think of any time you talk about the position.  To me - it is Gossage, Sutter, Smith, Eckersley and Rivera.  

There are current day players that could or will be talked about however most of today's closers did not do what Sutter did.

The most innings a closer pitched this year was Mariano and Street at 78.  Last year Gagne pitched 82 innings, Foulke pitched 86 in 2003.  These closers today are required to do less and get more glory.  Come in, make 1 pitch, get a save, pad stats.  The closers from the 70's and 80's faced much different expectations.  The starter went 7, 8 or even 9 which also gave closers fewer chances then in today's game.  

Sutter was highly regarded in his era and just looking at his numbers against the inflated save numbers we see today is not a fair comparison to what he actually accomplished.  

by slickwdb on Jan 7, 2006 12:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

No Lee Smith?
Well, I think it's a load of crap that Lee Smith, the all-time save leader, isn't even considered worthy of a poll option here.

Name      IP   ERA  Saves   PRAA  PRAA/IP
Smith    1289   3.03  478    244   .189
Sutter   1042   2.83  300    168   .161
Gossage  1809   3.01  310    244   .135

Smith compiled those numbers playing predominantly in a great hitting environment.  In 10 of 12 years, Smith posted PRAR (pitching runs above replacement) of 40 or more.  For a relief pitcher to do that is unbelievable.  The new HOF-er, Sutter, did this 6 times in his career.

Honestly, how any reliever can even be considered before Smith baffles me.  Then again, I have no clue why Blyleven isn't a Hall-of-famer either, a concept which seems obvious to the majority of the voters.

by BobbyMac on Jan 10, 2006 3:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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