Latest trade rumor

by RVachon on Jan 4, 2006 10:54 AM EST Comment 46 comments

Despite my derision of all these trade rumors involving Boston, there is another one that has been floated around.

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=119817

Would anyone here actually trade Marte for Lugo? I believe Lugo is an underappreciated SS, but I think the Sox are far better served holding onto Marte.

So I guess it's obvious that my answer to the poll is a resounding "NO".

Poll

Would you trade Marte for Lugo straight up?

Yes

31 votes

No

151 votes

182 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 46 comments

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Comments

Please don't do this

Jed/Ben, don't make this trade!

by RandyKutcherHair on Jan 4, 2006 10:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jed

There's a guy named Jed in Boston?

by grandslam on Jan 4, 2006 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

co-gm

Jed Hoyer

by FI on Jan 4, 2006 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At this point, IMO it appears that everyone knows they have the Red Sox at their mercy. If they want players to help them win this year, the Red Sox are going to need to do something they don't want to do, whether it's taking a bad contract, sending money, or trading a top prospect. The Red Sox have put themselves in this position by creating holes in their roster and everyone knows it.

In other words, what is it exactly that Tampa Bay should take from Boston for Lugo? I know what Boston fans will say, but does it make sense from the other side? If you are in the stronger negotiating position, you should take advantage of it.

by jc3 on Jan 4, 2006 11:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Then don't deal with the D'Rays right now

I think the best course of action the Sox can take now is concentrate on trading for tejada to fill their ss position. If that is not a possibility then go into the season with Cora, Pedroia, Graffaninio, & Loretta rotating between 2b and ss. To trade Marte for Lugo straight up would be crazy. That would mean the Sox essentially traded Renteria and $11m for Lugo. Lugo is only signed for next year and then he is a free agent. Stand pat for now and go into spring training with what you have in camp.

by RandyKutcherHair on Jan 4, 2006 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't have put it better myself.

Dead on.

"People think it must be fun to be a super genious, but they don't know how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world." - Calvin

by RVachon on Jan 4, 2006 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would disagree...

Peter Gammons' most recent article on ESPN actually addressed this issue pretty well. According to him, the Sox are looking more to the long-term interests of the club. As such, they aren't at anyone's mercy. So far, the Sox have not made a single move that appears out of panic (the Renteria trade could be argued here, but they got a pretty sweet prospect in the process...). They refused to overpay for Damon, they won't take pennies on the dollar for Manny. So I would disagree that the D-Rays are in a stronger negotiating position, because the Sox have shown no inclination to go overboard in an attempt to "win now." Two years ago, they likely would have. Now it doesn't seem so likely.

Here's another question that has come to me over the last few days. I have seen a lot of people express the opinion that the Red Sox are in a bit of a corner with regards to their trades and the Manny situation, but the same hasn't really been said of the O's and Tejada. Can someone please tell me why the Red Sox' situation is so much more dire than the O's? To me, neither team should really be too concerned about making these trades, since neither is likely to get full value...

"People think it must be fun to be a super genious, but they don't know how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world." - Calvin

by RVachon on Jan 4, 2006 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

on the contrary

I've read a bit about the O's being in a bind. The difference, really, is but media coverage. The media loves the Saux. No one loves Peter Angelos.

by Azteca on Jan 4, 2006 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

I made the assumption that they want to win this year. If they don't care about that, they can go along with what they have and hope everything falls into place, which is not very likely. Possible, but not likely.

by jc3 on Jan 4, 2006 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Got it

I guess I should have said that the Sox are trying to win this year, but they aren't going to mortgage the future to do so. It's a bit of a balancing act, really. But I think they can compete this year while still holding Marte. I really don't think the SS gap is as glaring as many people seem to believe.

"People think it must be fun to be a super genious, but they don't know how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world." - Calvin

by RVachon on Jan 4, 2006 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BOS needs a SS

if not lugo who? I think they me desperate but sometimes you have to pay.

http://oaklandprospects.blogspot.com/

by novaoakland on Jan 4, 2006 11:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

have legit internal options

Cora is virtually identical to A Gonzalez (the former Marlins version), who was the starting SS for a WS champ.

Pedroia would be a better SS this year than many starting MLB SS.

Even Machado is an upgrade over Renteria.

by cdamon on Jan 4, 2006 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

subject

What makes you think Pedroia will be a better ss then most MLB ss this year?

imo I would like to see him first have success above AA, and second I would like to see him play SS again, before I could say he will be better then most MLB ss's.

by Josh on Jan 4, 2006 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

was succeeding at AAA

he was hitting very similarly in AAA to his other minor league #'s (over 300/400/500, I lost the specific numbers) before he hurt his wrist (got hit by a pitch).

His EqA everywhere except for the injury impaired AAA numbers put him above the average MLB SS already (actually above the average MLB OF). By reports, he has an adequate arm for a SS and above average range. In other words, he is currently an above average offensive SS (compared to current MLB SS) who plays average or slightly above average defense. That combination makes him better than most MLB SS already. and, as a 22 year old, he will almost certainly get better.

Starting Pedroia is a 3-4 game improvement over Renteria from 2005.

The only concern is whether his wrist is fully healed yet.

by cdamon on Jan 4, 2006 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

subject

How many triple A games did he play before he got hit on the wrist? From what i can tell he was called up 5/23 and hit on 5/27. He may of been hitting 300/400/500 in them 4 games, but that is far from a good sample size.

If Boston thought they had an above average SS ready to step in, why are they trying so hard to trade for a SS? Wouldn;t they focus there attention on there other needs? I would think they would no more about what they have then two guys posting on a message board.

I like Pedroia, but I just don't see him stepping in right now and being above average. Boston has the money to fill the gap and let him develop. IMO that is the right move at this point.

by Josh on Jan 5, 2006 2:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it was short

I had not realized how short of a time it was before he got hit. (It was actually june not may, but you got the important part right.)

His EqA at the other 3 stops on his rise were all consistent with being an above average offensive SS right now. He may have an adjustment period (or he may not). As long as he doesn't seem overwhelmed, I think it will be for the better. If he really isn't ready, Graffanino or Cora or even Machado would be adequate.

I would much rather have Graff+Manny in my lineup than Tejada+? in my lineup. I guess the bottom line to me is that the RSox have a surplus of talent at MI and a dearth of talent (beyond Manny and Trot) at the corner OF position. Any trade of Manny-Tejada weakens the red sox more than it strengthens, because of the other talent available to the Sox.

by cdamon on Jan 5, 2006 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

subject

My bad on what month. It was a rough night.

"I would much rather have Graff+Manny in my lineup than Tejada+? in my lineup."

I don't know about that. Depends on who the ? guy is. Without knowing who he is I can't really agree.

The problem is Manny doesn't want to be there. If I was Boston's gm I would grab Tejada. I'll take the guy that wants to be there, over the guy that doesn't any day. Honestly I don't understand why the Boston fans are not begging for Manny to be gone. If Boston was my team I would be sick to see him run out to left on opening day. Screw the numbers. I want guys that would run through a brick wall for the team. Manny is not that guy.

by Josh on Jan 5, 2006 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

? is the question

If they had a reasonable alternative for LF, I would have no problem with this trade. But they don't. When George Lombard is you best in house option, you need to look elsewhere. But getting even a major league average LF will cost them something else. A lot of something else, opening more holes. The Sox have a surplus of middle infield talent and a dearth of corner OF talent as an organization. This trade would massively exarcerbate that imbalance.

by cdamon on Jan 5, 2006 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even if they are desperate

Trading Marte for Lugo goes beyond desperate.

There's an Alex Gonzalez out there somewhere isn't there? They still have Cora, and honestly, half a season of Royce Clayton isn't the end of the world, although it's obviously not anyone's first choice.

The point is that Lugo provides average to slightly above average offense at a decent cost, and the Sox, if they hold onto Manny, would have a plenty decent offense with a lesser player like Clayton or Gonzalez. There's no need to give up Marte, or Lester or any of their best prospects, for Lugo

Heck, couldn't they trade with the Twins for Punto or with the A's for Scutaro? They're better 2Bmen, but they can play SS (I think) Why were the Mets playing Chris Woodward at 1B? Isn't he a SS?

by sasquatch83 on Jan 4, 2006 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

.284/.348/.429, 46 SB

.295/.362/.403, 39 SB

The first player is now getting paid $13 million a season. The second player is currently making about a quarter of that.

In other words, it's not exactly like the Red Sox would be doing the Devil Rays a favor by trading for Lugo.

If the Red Sox want to promote Pedroia and play him, by all means. Getting pissy because their $120 million payroll has still left them with question marks galore is their own fault, and the organization's apparent attitude that other teams should make ridiculous deals to fill Boston's gaps is just baffling to me.

by mrkupe on Jan 4, 2006 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Agree

I think your comment is right on, mrkupe! The Bosox have only themselves to blame for their mess, and there's no way Tampa should just hand them an above average major league shortstop! What Red Sox fans should consider is that Lugo fill two holes...shortstop and leadoff. And he does both jobs better than the previous 2 shortstops they've had. Guys with an OBA of .360 with 39 steals don't grow on trees and the fact that he's an above average fielder is just gravy. So, yes, if they want to put Grafanino or Pedroia there, that's their choice but don't get on the Rays because they won't give you their shortstop for a bag of balls!

"...look for low and away...but watch out for in your ear."

by mark21 on Jan 4, 2006 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lugo

He doesn't exactly have a track record of posting a .360 OBP and high steals every year, now does he?

starring Alfonso Soriano as Vinny C in RFK part deux

by natsfan2005 on Jan 4, 2006 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, you're right

Lugo's career averages are only .340 and 23 steals...strangely similar to Edgar Renteria's career averages of .346 and 24 steals and actually not far off Johnny Damon's numbers - .354 and 25 steals. I guess Lugo's not worth much after all.

"...look for low and away...but watch out for in your ear."

by mark21 on Jan 4, 2006 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lugo

It's not that Lugo is worthless.

He's actually very good for the money that he makes. But nevertheless, he's not an elite shortstop, and the Sox would be trading one of the top prospects in baseball, one who some people profile as a perennial All-Star with 30 HR power, for one year of slightly above league average play at SS.

That is, unless concerns about Marte's elbow are real. But if he is severely damaged goods, I don't understand why the Sox would have taken him in the first place.

by sasquatch83 on Jan 4, 2006 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nice of you...

to credit Lugo with the # of steals for his per 162 games rather than his actual season average.

Mr Pibb + Red Vines = Crazy Delicious

by natsfan2005 on Jan 4, 2006 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to get into the debate too much

But "averages" are somewhat misleading in this case. Lugo's excellent year last year distorts his averages. Median or typical performance might be a better way of thinking about it that career or 162 game averages, given the atypicality of last year.

.346, 22 SB
.326, 12 SB
.322, 9 SB
.333, 12 SB
.338, 21 SB
.362, 39 SB

I'm not saying that Lugo isn't pretty good, I'm just saying that suggesting he averages .340/23 is misleading about what his typical season has been up to this point. He could have taken a legitimate step forward last year, of course, so .340/23 may be a reasonable projection... but it's not what he's done to this point, really.

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Jan 4, 2006 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

THAN, not that

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Jan 4, 2006 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Hear What You're Saying...

Joltin' Joe, but at the same time your post shows a definite upward trend from a guy who's only 30! I just think Lugo is not getting the respect that he deserves from some of the folks on this board. When the pre-season lists come out, I wouldn't be surprised to see him ranked in the top 5 shortstops in baseball based on these numbers. And I'm not trashing Andy Marte either. His future looks very bright indeed, but I also think that until he shows this potential at the major league level, that's all it is...potential. For every Joe Mauer there's 3 Josh Hamiltons.

"...look for low and away...but watch out for in your ear."

by mark21 on Jan 4, 2006 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

subject

>> For every Joe Mauer there's 3 Josh Hamiltons.

Well, for every guy who has a career year at 29 that continues to build upon that success... there are a few Derek Bell's who collapse.

Mr Pibb + Red Vines = Crazy Delicious

by natsfan2005 on Jan 4, 2006 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

subject

If Boston did trade for Lugo would they give him the same treatment as jason kidd?

by Josh on Jan 5, 2006 3:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

Why are you going off on the sox making ridiculous demands? Every team should so as to get the most in a deal, if you don't then you're stupid. However, never making any deals because you wont back off of those initial (crazy) demands makes a bad FO (Tampa). I want my favorite team trying to screw over the other teams, that's how you win folks, this isn't a campfire sing-along its business and its competition all rolled into one. So the sox asking for Markarkis is all fine and good (just like the O's asking for lester) but once each team laughs those off, then they get down to business and get reasonable.

by jspearlj1 on Jan 4, 2006 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Woodward & Machado

The numbers don't support it, but I believe Chris Woodward has been labled as "below average" defensively at SS. Of course, the Mets also want to believe that Reyes is a MLB SS, so that also factors into Woodward being used as a utility. It would actually be an upgrade to acquire a guy like Woodward, especially in Boston's situation. Woodward is a RHB who regularly hits righties for power and lefties for decent average. He would give you similar or better D than Lugo (or the 2005 version of Renteria) with his career .966 FPCT (4.7 RF and .842 ZR are both comparable to Lugo). An ideal fit in the 7-9 spot for the Redsox (which is where they need a SS).

I know there is talk of Boston using "Slappy" Machado as a super-utility. The Redsox best in-house solution for SS is Machado. He is an above average defender who can bat 9th. He is fast on the bases (though still refining base-stealing skills). He will take a walk. He is a switchy bat. I don't think any Redsox fans would complain about a guy who hits .265 with a .340-.350 OBP with advanced D at the bottom of their order. Clearly, a better option at SS than Cora (declining range) or Pedroia (needs more time).

Am I the only one who thinks Pedroia's skills fit at 2B better than at SS?

I love guys like Punto and Scutaro. Heck, I still have a place in heart for Royce Clayton. Redsox already have options and should just let spring training figure out who starts at SS. If they really need to make a move, it is to find a leadoff CF (a position that isn't as readily available).

Those are my thoughts. I love talking about utility players. Maybe too much, because I'm the guy that signs Joe McEwing and Ramon Vazquez in my sim league. Don't hold it again me.

"If you cant answer a man's argument, all is not lost, you can still call him vile names" - Hubbard

by QuixoticQuasiQuandary on Jan 4, 2006 12:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Add-on, and thoughts

What about the (in my mind, much more likely) scenario that Gathright gets added to the equation? That fills two holes, and basically is a trade of a top-10 prospect for an above average shortstop and a top-100 prospect (per BA, anyway).

Rotating those guys at SS would be a mistake, unless this is a fantasy team. None of them is a natural major league shortstop (Pedroia might be able to get by at the position, but I doubt it and we don't even know if he's major league ready yet, and none of the others are even remotely passable at short at this stage in their careers), not to mention that if you're playing someone at a position which he hasn't played regularly in 5+ years, you should probably play him there full time so he actually improves.

If Marte had never been involved and the Red Sox had traded Renteria + $11M for Lugo straight up, Red Sox nation would have lauded the deal as genious. Lugo is a significant upgrade and is still trending up, and Renteria had a very bad contract and was falling off. Basically that's the same as picking up Lugo and buying out the remainder of Renteria's contract for $6M. Believe it or not, that would have been a smart move. Of course, now that Marte's involved, if he really doesn't have an ulnar injury, that changes things a bit because he has SO MUCH more value than Renteria did.

by Brickhaus on Jan 4, 2006 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not a sox fan...

nor am I a Gathwright fan. But if you add Joey to the deal it seems fairly balanced to me. Two years of Lugo for Marte is not worth doing for the sox IMO. Marte was Sickels #1 prospect entering 2005...

Mr Pibb + Red Vines = Crazy Delicious

by natsfan2005 on Jan 4, 2006 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

is it one year of Lugo or two?

I'm not sure when I see people say signed thru next year. I'm considering 2006 this year already...

Mr Pibb + Red Vines = Crazy Delicious

by natsfan2005 on Jan 4, 2006 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't do that

Straight up.

Expand on the deal, get Gathright. Find someone who will give you young players for Manny, then include them and get Huff back to replace Manny.

But, don't panic- if you go into spring training, or even the regular season, with Cora as your starting SS, there are worse things. Other shortstops will become available.

In any case, get Manny resolved one way or the other, and go from there.

by johnnyc on Jan 4, 2006 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No

Obviously you do not do this trade under any circumstances. You do not essentially trade away Edgar Renteria and $11 million for Julio Lugo. You do not send away a guy who could be the new future of the franchise for a slightly above average shortstop who will be in town for one year.

The Red Sox are not at a disadvantage, no one has them by the balls, and they have zero reason to panic. Everyone is so down about the Red Sox, but has anyone actually stopped to think about what they're saying when they talk about the Red Sox? If they went into the reason right now with the team they have in place, putting Youk at first, Cora at short, and Adam Stern in center then they are a 90-95 win team. A team like that isn't exactly going to be in full panic mode.

Where are their holes? Someone tell me. First base? Kevin Youkilis, Roberto Petagine, and likely JT Snow could easily match the production they got last year from Millar/Olerud. Shortstop? Take a step back and look at the situation...the Red Sox had a hole at shortstop last year too. Edgar Renteria gave them poor offense and putrid defense. A season of Alex Cora isn't exactly ideal, but it's not a huge step down. Center field? Ok, ya got me there. But that is the only place where the Sox have been significantly downgraded from last year to this year.

On the flip side they've improved their rotation, greatly improved their bullpen, and are better off at second base. Third base should be about equal if Mike Lowell improves even a little (and I believe he will...he's not getting old or slowing down. He still had a great year with the glove and his reflexes in the field are as strong as ever. He just had a down year with the bat and will bounce back, probably putting up numbers close to what Bill Mueller gave them), right field is about the same with Nixon coming back even if you anticipate him likely being injured for another 40 games this year. Varitek is still behind the plate and Shoppach or Flaherty can easily pick up where Mirrabelli left off.

The only possible way that this team is any worse than last year is if they trade away Manny. If they stick with him then they're going to compete with the Yanks for the division lead and probably head to the play offs.

Over the Monster for my Red Sox minor league updates

by Brian38 on Jan 4, 2006 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Like I said before...

"You do not essentially trade away Edgar Renteria and $11 million for Julio Lugo."

You could also look at it as a $5M buyout of Renteria's bad contract, plus signing Lugo, if this were the deal. That would not be a bad deal, really, it wouldn't. Marte changes things, but I don't understand why anyone wouldn't trade Renteria + $11M for Lugo. It still saves you money in the long haul, and you end up with a better shortstop.

by Brickhaus on Jan 4, 2006 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would trade Renteria and $11MM for Lugo

Especially if I could throw cash around like the Sox can. I just wouldn't trade Marte, a future cornerstone player whose downside appears to be Eric Chavez at this point.

by limozeen on Jan 4, 2006 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Downsize / upside

I think one could make a pretty good argument that his downside is more Dean Palmer than Eric Chavez. Granted, that's still an all-star, but not nearly as good of a player. I think it's easier to say that his downside is Palmer than that his upside is Schmidt, in any case...

by Brickhaus on Jan 5, 2006 8:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Renteria

If you're so quick to believe that Lugo has suddenly become a better player, why is it so hard to believe that Renteria just had a down year, and will be better in the future?

Rios is the next Juan Gonzales, thats right, I said it.

by KaoticKlown on Jan 4, 2006 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well

Because Renteria was bad the year before too and has been regressing for the past few years, and because last year was right on par with renteria's average performance, other than a flukey 2003. Heck, take away Renteria's 2003 and Lugo's 2005, and they're basically the same player, except that Lugo's a better baserunner (I'm not saying base stealing, I mean baserunning) and less error-prone defender and Renteria has a bit more power.

by Brickhaus on Jan 4, 2006 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs