Question about length of player's primes

by joerote on Jan 30, 2006 3:49 PM EST

This is related to a fantasy proposition for me (keeper league/expansion draft) but I don't want to focus on that. I've read often that a player's prime starts in the 27-28 year range but I've never read anything about when you can expect players to start to fall off or their prime to end. I cherry picked a few big names and took a look at year by year numbers but that's just not enough data to extrapolate anything meaningful. Is there any conventional wisdom out there for when an average players performance is going to start to fall off? Is it different for pitchers and hitters?

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Well...

I saw a study referenced that seemed to imply that a player's real prime was now closer to 27-33, rather than 28-30 as it was a couple years ago. The reasons are obvious: more information (and time) spent on training, eating, etc.

Sometimes people forget that athletes back in the day couldn't train year round because they didn't earn enough and needed to keep a second job in the offseason. I think this has played a big role in the increased athleticism / power numbers that we see now adays. Clearly some other "less natural" causes were around, but this is an important one none-the-less

by Jgaztambide on Jan 30, 2006 4:14 PM EST reply actions

I think Bill James concluded...

that a player's peak is 25-29.

by Sulla on Jan 30, 2006 4:36 PM EST reply actions

it's different for pitchers & hitters

I think Shandler/HQ says something like this...

B: 27-31
P: 29-33

Correct me if I'm wrong.

by Azteca on Jan 30, 2006 4:49 PM EST reply actions

rumor is

Mike Piazza's 'prime' is under 4".

by gogotabata on Jan 30, 2006 10:07 PM EST reply actions

re: rumor

Scouts apparently say Dustin Pedroia's 'prime' is as small as Ecksteins.

Also, Daric Barton's plate discipline is evidence that his 'prime' is massive. He has cyclops supervision.

In Billy We Trust

by I Love Oakland As on Jan 31, 2006 2:08 AM EST up reply actions

I believe I read somewhere...

Hello everyone,

that it is between ages 28-32, but it was some time ago and I don't remember the source. Sorry.

I hope this is helpful, nevertheless; it looks similar to age ranges posted by others.

Take care and have a great day! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 30, 2006 11:37 PM EST reply actions

What are you defining as prime?

James identified the peak year for batters as 27 two decades ago. It was somewhat controversial at the time, but I think it has become more accepted, at least in the stathead community.

How long you call the peak depends on what you call peak. Is it years with 95% of peak value? 90%? You get different answers for different variances.

The analysis that I have seen says that a typical batter best 3 years, in order are age 27, age 28, age 26, without a huge variation between the 3 years. The farther you get from the peak age, the further the variation.

Part of the trick is also how you define value. BA appears to decline from about age 25. Walks and power peak closer to 30. So the composition of value shifts across the peak years. At some point the mixture of values crosses. Up to age 25 everything should be getting better. After age 30 everything should be getting worse. Somewhere in the middle the mixture of improving and declining hits a maximum.

This is a bit like daylight over the winter. The Winter solstice is the shortest day, but it is not the latest sunrise nor the earliest sunset. But the solstice is the day when the two combine for the shortest day.

Remember that these are average career paths. Individuals can vary widely from the "typical" pattern.

by cdamon @ Minor League Ball on Jan 31, 2006 9:26 AM EST reply actions

Well..

I guess I"m more interested in when severe decline typically happens than when a player is likely to be 5% off his peak. Take a guy like Maddux for example. I would say he had his last truly great year at age 32 but still was above average until age 37. This is probably atypical but when is it typical for players to see a large drop off in performance?

Thanks for all the responses everybody. They've been helpful.

by joerote on Jan 31, 2006 9:44 AM EST up reply actions

BP Library's article

Last year, the BP team put together a series of essays introducing people to sabremetrics. This article (pasted below) I think is free, and it's helpful for evaluating players' career paths.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2659

(Maddux, though, is going to be a pretty unique case. His comps from BP this year are Warren Spahn, Tom Seaver & Dennis Martinez, a rare group indeed.)

by Azteca on Jan 31, 2006 1:33 PM EST up reply actions