Prospect Retro: Carlos Silva

by John Sickels on Jan 27, 2006 11:14 AM EST in News Comment 16 comments

Per Reader Request, a Prospect Retro: Carlos Silva

Carlos Silva was signed by the Philadelphia Phillies as a free agent in 1996, out of Venezuela. He made his pro debut that summer, pitching 18 innings for Martinsville in the Appalachian League at the age of 17, allowing 11 runs but posting a nice 16/5 K/BB ratio. At this point, he was a basic "kid with a live arm", his best attributes being youth and control. He'd have rated a Grade C or Grade C+ prospect.

Returning to Martinsville in 1997, Silva made 11 starts, posting a 5.15 ERA and a 31/14 K/BB in 58 innings, allowing 66 hits. His velocity picked up into the low 90s and he threw strikes, but his secondary pitches were unreliable, making him too hittable. Grade C with higher potential would be an appropriate grade.

Silva split '98 between Martinsville and Batavia in the New York-Penn League, pitching poorly at both levels, with high ERAs and way too many hits allowed (109 in 86 innings combined). His velocity continued to pick up, hitting the upper 90s at times with sinking action, but his below average secondary pitches were a severe hindrance. He would still be a Grade C prospect.

He started to turn things around in 1999, going 11-8, 3.12 in 26 starts for Piedmont in the Sally League. His K/BB was 99/41 in 164 innings, but he allowed 176 hits. His fastball was now a consistent 93-95 MPH pitch, sometimes a touch higher, with continued sinking action. His curveball improved from very poor to average. Sabermetrically, his best attributes were youth, control, and strong ground ball tendencies, but his K/IP and H/IP were weak. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2000 book.

Silva spent '00 at Clearwater in the Florida State League, going 8-13 with a 3.57 ERA and 82/26 K/BB in 177 innings, allowing 229 hits. His control of the fastball improved, but his curveball regressed to below average, killing his H/IP and K/IP. I dropped him to Grade C in the '01 book, concerned that unless he developed another pitch that he'd get killed at higher levels.

Moved up to Double-A in 2001, he went 15-8, 3.90 in 28 starts for Reading, with a 100/27 K/BB in 180 innings, allowing 197 hits. His slider and curveball improved, and he continued to pound the strike zone with his sinking fastball. I moved his grade up to C+. I really wasn't sure what to make of him. I liked his sinker, and his improvement in Double-A was impressive, but the K/IP and H/IP were still weak.

The Phillies made him a reliever in 2002, and he spent two years in their bullpen, pitching OK. He was shipped off to Minnesota in 2004, and they made him a starter. Silva's major league career so far has been very similar statistically to his minor league career: excellent control, but a low strikeout rate and more than a hit per inning. His walk rate has become ridiculously low, which is good because his margin for error is still rather thin. He now has a career record of 31-17, with an ERA+ of 114 (sound numbers) but has allowed 647 hits in 563 innings, with just 236 strikeouts. To be honest, I have no freaking idea what to expect from Silva in coming years.

Similar Pitchers to Carlos Silva

Bob Tewksbury
Jim Barr
Dick Bosman
Ed Lynch

I'm not sure that any of those guys are truly comparable.

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Comments

What I've noticed about Silva

Is that he's a bulldog out there on the mound. He doesn't back down and constantly challenges hitters--obvious maybe from the BB rate. John, maybe the problem in evaluating him is that you're not a cardiac surgeon...you can't measure heart!

I'm pretty sure the Twins saw Silva's best last year, and they and their fans should be ready for what may seem to be a mediocre season from him--an ERA from 3.8 to 4.2.

by tmelander on Jan 27, 2006 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

His rise has been remarkable...

...and I've wondered about where he came from over the past two years. Knew he was in the Phillies system, and was surprised when the Twins converted him to starter. (I guess the Angels are hoping for similar success with Hector Carrasco this year, although he certainly lacks Silva's youth.)

by Azteca on Jan 27, 2006 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Silva is from the 1890's

I think that Silva is probably more closely compared to pitchers that were around before the turn of the century. He certainly is a deadball era pitcher when you look at his BB rates, his extreme GB tendencies, and extremely low K rates. I think that you are right in saying that you have nothing to compare it too because unless you are about 120 years old you would have never seen anything like it.

That being said there has to be some regression to the mean control wise. However, another thing that plays in his favor is his abilty to let his D play behind him. I know that at a point last year he was leading the AL in DP's induced. As someone who watches Silva pitch pretty consistently there is a track record with him that doesn't unnerve you with runners on. If you watch Brad Radke and he puts 2 on with one out you pray that the 3 run homer isn't coming. With Siva you know that probably worst case is that they get one run on a slap single or something of that nature. He sure does seem to "situational pitch".

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 27, 2006 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mike Green

Pitchers of a Silva's type (Tewksbury is the best recent example) are more seriously affected by changes in environment (fence moves, defence changes) than others. Luis Castillo is a fine defender at second base and his arrival in Minneapolis has to be a plus for Silva.

by Mike Green on Jan 27, 2006 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tewksbury

If Silva's not comparable to Tewksbury, then I think he's in trouble. If he walks more than about 20 people a year, I think the whole thing blows up.

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Jan 27, 2006 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Silva is baffling

To say his margin for sucess is razor thin is accurate by observation. He pitches consistently one base hit away from disaster and is probably a dozen walks per 200 innings away from mediocrity even if his luck otherwise holds out. He still depends almost soley on that mid-90's sinker and doesn't use many other pitches. His career may just be waiting for the laws of averages to drag him down into inneffectiveness, but he could be just the development of a half-way decent changeup away from sustainable greatness.

by steve johnson on Jan 27, 2006 3:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

John

A co-worker was just playing audio highlights from the '97 Indians season. Herb Score and Tom Hamilton. One drones, the other screams so loud he wakes the dead. Timeless.

Anyway, they were saying some of the names of players I'd forgotten - Alvaro Espinosa, Casey Candaele - and then they played Nigel Wilson's first hit, a homer off Percival, and drove in Julio Franco.

I'm not sure there's recorded history from when he started, but could you do a prospect retro on Julio Franco, if possible? That'd be interesting. Also, Troy Percival would be good.

We owned Percival.

by lenred on Jan 27, 2006 3:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Red Sox owned Percival too

He has some ghastly ERA (like 8+) against the BoSox. He's blown 1/2 or more of his save opps against the Sox. I always loved to see him come him, because I figured the Sox were going to win.

I wonder if he struggles against all the good offenses but really shines against mediocre and worse offenses,

by cdamon on Jan 27, 2006 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know how he projects for the future but...

I watched Silva throw 74 pitches and a complete game this year and it was one of the most amazing displays I've seen in baseball.

From espn.com on May 20 2005:

"Minnesota's burly right-hander, in his second season as a major league starter, needed only 74 pitches -- 54 for strikes -- to lead the Twins past the Milwaukee Brewers 7-1 Friday night.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Silva's pitch count was the lowest complete-game total in the majors in the past five seasons."

He gave up 5 hits so he ended up facing 32 batters. 74/32=2.3 pitches per batter I don't know why he's good, he just is.

by joeywyen on Jan 27, 2006 3:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Scott Erickson

He reminds me of Scott Erickson, stuff wise (taking away the incredible [steroids induced] run in 1991). Except Silva walks fewer batters and doesn't nibble as much in general. His success is intimately tied to the quality of his infield defense. If he continues to lead the league in fewest walks and most DPs, he'll be an effective pitcher. If not, look out.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 27, 2006 4:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Silva

I don't think Silva's control is all that outstanding. A lot of other pitchers could throw pitches for strikes if all they ever did was throw fastballs over the plate. But they would get lit up if they tried that.

What makes Silva special is a sinking fastball that is very hard to hit and even harder to hit anywhere but on the ground. Its tough to build a rally around ground balls. So Silva just goes out there and throws his fastball for strikes and lets his stuff do the rest. I don't see much reason to think he will change that approach or that it will stop working for him.

by TT on Jan 27, 2006 4:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Carlos Silva

It doesn't really matter that he gives up an insane amount of hits if he doesn't walk anyone. It's all about the WHIP, and Silva's is very good.

by Justin & Joe on Jan 27, 2006 9:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks John

I've been wondering about him for a while, ever since his game in August where he issued his 8th walk of the season to Chris Snelling.

by Trenchtown on Jan 28, 2006 12:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Silva

In some ways, Silva is a vindication of sabermetric principles. His low ERA shows that a walk is in some ways just as valuable as a hit, and walks are more controllable than hits. I really don't think he's any closer to a meltdown than any other 1.17 WHIP pitcher who depends on limiting hits. In fact, I'd argue the opposite, because walk rates are less volatile than hit rates.

by limozeen on Jan 28, 2006 1:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

silva

walk rates may be less volatile, but silva's walk rate is not only historically low, it's the lowest since the dead-ball era by a mile. regression towards the mean is a very strong factor here. i'm hoping he stays good, because he's really fun to watch. one thing he does have going for him is that despite strong GB tendencies, he actually gave up a fair number of homers in 2005 (23 in 200 innings). in the past, pitchers with that profile have generally improved their HR rate the following year.

by jpahk on Jan 28, 2006 4:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Love the guy!

I love clicking on Twins' box scores to see his lines. The guy is truly a throwback to a different era (as someone mentioned above). If the strike zone were a bit larger (i.e., where it was in the 1960s) Silva would be a Cy Young candidate. Unfortunately, in this era Silva is at a major disadvantage. He rarely uses a secondary pitch and, if his control slips a little, it is going to get ugly out there.

Nolan

by Nolan on Jan 28, 2006 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs