Theo returns!
That's right, Theo Epstein is coming back to the Red Sox. Officially.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/01/19/theo_epstein_to_rejoin_red_sox/

Now, can we PLEASE stop all of the "Red Sox have no direction/head" stories?
0 recs |
52
comments
Comments
To be honest
by jc3 on Jan 19, 2006 11:10 PM EST 0 recs
They have no CF
Alex Cora is better than Renteria was last year. And Pedroia will have the job by the allstar break at the latest. And will be one of the top 10 SS in the game by the end of the year.
Not to mention upgrades at 2B, SP and a massive upgrade of the bullpen.
by cdamon on
Jan 19, 2006 11:22 PM EST
up
0 recs
Youk will be the best 1B (or close to it) in AL
by PooNani on
Jan 19, 2006 11:42 PM EST
up
0 recs
and dont forget
by npurcell on
Jan 19, 2006 11:52 PM EST
up
0 recs
You clearly didn't watch Renteria last year
I have been watching baseball seriously for 40 years now and Renteria last year was the worst defensive SS I have ever seen play.
Cora will be weaker with the bat, but will more than make up for it with the glove.
Cora will be a below average ML SS, between D and hitting.
Renteria last year was the second worst SS in MLB, better than only Guzman.
Only when Pedroia comes up will this be a strength.
by cdamon on
Jan 20, 2006 9:01 AM EST
up
0 recs
Is it?
by PooNani on
Jan 20, 2006 8:54 AM EST
up
0 recs
who is clearly better? (in the AL EAST)
Balt: Millar 295 275 (time to ride into the sunset)
Bos: Youk 275 292
NY: Phillips? 282 164 (not really meaningful in either case)
TB: Huff 297 272 (looks a lot like Millar's line?)
Tor: Overbay 293 284
So Youk put up the best EqA out of the lot of them last year, albeit in limited playing time. But his minor league numbers agree with what he has done in the majors, so I expect an EqA in the 290-300 range.
Overbay is the only reasonable shot to do that on another team. Given the relative ages, I would rather have Youk the Overbay
by cdamon on
Jan 20, 2006 8:56 AM EST
up
0 recs
Clarification...
by RVachon on Jan 19, 2006 11:37 PM EST 0 recs
youk could be
Yankees start Giambi, who I would say is the best 1st baseman in the AL East.
Devil Rays have a light bat with Travis Lee.
Jays have Hinske and Overbay splitting time. My guess is Overbay will get mor playing time, but he had a minor sophomore slump, and will probably be on par with Millar.
Overall, I'd say Yankees have a huge edge, Toronto, Boston, and Baltimore are about equal in the power department, but Boston and Toronto will probably have superior obp from their 1st basemen.
by forage on Jan 20, 2006 12:09 AM EST 0 recs
giambi
by wily mo on
Jan 20, 2006 12:50 AM EST
up
0 recs
I was under the impression
by Brickhaus on
Jan 20, 2006 1:01 PM EST
up
0 recs
If Giambi is at 1B
As a Sox fan, I am much happier with Williams at DH than Phillips at first.
by cdamon on
Jan 20, 2006 1:05 PM EST
up
0 recs
Youkilis
by FI on
Jan 20, 2006 1:46 AM EST
up
0 recs
i'll take overbay
AAA: 497 PA, .260/.382/.432
MLB: 340 PA, .265/.376/.411
at first base, i'd call that below league average. he's worse than, say, dan johnson, a similar player with better AAA and MLB stats (also 27). so why do red sox fans love youkilis so much?
by jpahk on
Jan 20, 2006 2:48 AM EST
up
0 recs
OBP
Now a couple years later many of their better hitters have left and there's not a ton of talent around to replace them, they really need an above-average 1B, so he's a lot less exciting. You know what you're gonna get: middling average, high OBP, below-average power. He's still an ideal #2 (even leadoff) hitter for the sabermetrically inclined, and he'd be useful in a number off offenses. I've heard mixed reports on his defense, from "statuesque" to "average at 3 positions" (3B, 2B, 1B). The defense issue is the key: he'd be a heckuva nice player to have at second. Man, if he could handle it full-time he'd be a godsend to the Cubs...
Then of course there's the Moneyball hype with the nickname. He's also got a pretty cool surname.
by delomir on
Jan 20, 2006 3:24 AM EST
up
0 recs
OBPs
i read moneyball, and i liked the book, but whoever that relief pitcher was ("the claw"... i think his name was david bird?) never amounted to beans, and jeremy brown won't ever be more than a backup catcher (and quite probably never even that)... but people are still in love with youkilis. it's a mystery to me.
by jpahk on
Jan 20, 2006 5:33 AM EST
up
0 recs
.380
If Youks puts up a .380 with any decent number of doubles and HR, he'll be an above average 1B next year. If he hits 15 HR, and makes decent contact, his SLG should be in the .450 range. I don't see anything wrong with getting a .830 OPS out of your 1Bman.
Of course he's not going to be Pujols or Derrek Lee, but as someone said, Overbay might be a good comp.
by sasquatch83 on
Jan 20, 2006 8:30 AM EST
up
0 recs
seriously
- giambi .440
- slappy .421
- hafner .408
- ortiz .397
- vlad .394
- jeter .389
- manny .388
- brian roberts! .387
- michael young .385
- teixeira .379
by wily mo on
Jan 20, 2006 8:30 PM EST
up
0 recs
"the creature"
as a sox fan i have a gut feeling, unsubstantiated by any hard evidence, that youkilis plays better when he can get into a routine as a regular, which he's never really had a chance to do in the majors. i'm very interested to see what he can do when given a real shot.
by wily mo on
Jan 20, 2006 8:19 PM EST
up
0 recs
re: youk
by natsfan2005 on
Jan 21, 2006 2:53 PM EST
up
0 recs
yep
by pedrophile on
Jan 23, 2006 2:22 AM EST
up
0 recs
Youk
He put up an EqA last year of 292 last year in 96 PA. Not enough to convince me one way or the other that he is different than he was in the minors (but it confirms, not disagrees with his minor league numbers). But it is certainly radically different from trying to extrapolate from 1 game.
The only really dark spot on his minor league record is AAA. He has a grand total of 406 AB stretched across 3 seasons for an unspectacular 259/376/433 line. But he got significantly better as he was there:
first 109 AB 165/295/248 OUCH!
next 145 AB 262/343/407 so-so
last 152 AB 322/459/592 wow!
Some people have downplayed the 2005 numbers as repeating the league, but he barely has a full season worth of playing time at AAA including 2005 because of time spent in Boston. If you look at those numbers as adjusting to AAA over 400 ABs in one virtual season, he looks pretty good, don't you think?
Given that he improved across his 2 partial seasons in Boston (270 EqA over 245 PA, then the 293 over 95 PA) as well, he seems to adjust well to leagues and have the abilty to maintain those gains.
by cdamon on
Jan 23, 2006 10:19 AM EST
up
0 recs
EQA?
by natsfan2005 on
Jan 23, 2006 10:25 AM EST
up
0 recs
they do hold
None of these things are perfect. But if all the on field indicators point in the same direction, it is usually right.
It sounds like you believe scouting first and only adjust based on actual on field performance. I am exactly the opposite, trusting what players actually do more than what scouts think.
It is two different approaches and each works some of the time. We will see this year who was more accurate about Youk. I strongly expect an EqA of 290+ this year in Boston. You apparently expect somewhat less. Time will tell.
by cdamon on
Jan 23, 2006 10:43 AM EST
up
0 recs
Stats + Scouting
I look at stats alot. I value strike zone control greatly. But what I am skeptical about are these blackbox metrics that intend to sum up all a players worth into one number. A player's contributions and flaws are best visible through an entire stats line. Not one magic number put together by a website that is somehow an unquestionable authority b/c they charge $39.95 to subscribers. I subscribe, so I'm not dismissing all their work. But it's not infallible. I view it as interesting - not definitive.
by natsfan2005 on
Jan 23, 2006 2:14 PM EST
up
0 recs
Guess/Predict
There are many uncertainties with Youkilis. His AAA numbers are one. You are guessing if it is normal progression. It could be repeating the level. It could be a hot streak in 2005. We are not sure.
I posted the Sam Horn comment as a lighthearted joke. Too many people use EQA's and other statistics to say how good a player will be. It's possible Youkilis will turn out. But there is a fair bit of risk also.
by pedrophile on
Jan 23, 2006 2:39 PM EST
up
0 recs
Break it up by season in AAA
- 165/295/248 Only time he has struggled at any point, but man did he struggle
- 262/343/407 Was disappointed at being sent back down, but eventually settled in
- 322/459/592 absolutely mashed the ball
He also hit significantly better in 2005 in the majors than in 2004 (278/400/405 vs 260/367/413)
As I pointed out above, his EqA last year was better than any 1B likely to be starting in the AL East.
No, I don't expect a long career out of him, but he should be an adequate to good 1B for the next 3-4 years. Overall career value will be similar to Overbay, except he is moving into his peak years and Overbay is coming out of them.
by cdamon on
Jan 20, 2006 9:10 AM EST
up
0 recs
Why wouldn't he mash AAA
Overall, even if Youk is not the best, it's not like anyone is going to be much better, but I suspect that his slugging is not what you want from a 1B.
by count sutton on
Jan 21, 2006 8:34 AM EST
up
0 recs
I agree about repeating levels
Joe Dillon,
Todd Linden,
Kevin Orie, and
Rick Short.
Admittedly, being better than all but 4 full-time AAA players is nice, but I think this suggests at the statistical boost a player gets from repeating at that level. As an example, Cal Pickering simply annihilated AAA pitching in 2004. Personally, I think many of these guys could hold down MLB jobs, given a chance. But predicting stardom seems a bit dicey.
by BobbyMac on
Jan 23, 2006 1:41 PM EST
up
0 recs
Cubs?
I concur that the Cubs need people to clutter the bases, even if they're not overly fast. But going after Brian Giles with all the resources of the Tribune company would have made a lot more sense to me (even if they had to overpay) than adding another righty bat. Walker is very likely to hit RHP as hard as Youkilis this season, and with Lee and Ramirez around, the Cubs should be able to hold their own against the lefties.
by BobbyMac on Jan 20, 2006 5:19 AM EST 0 recs
Theo Returns!!!
by slurve on Jan 20, 2006 7:30 AM EST 0 recs
The Great Theo
by grandslam on Jan 20, 2006 8:19 AM EST 0 recs
Sure
by JFP on Jan 20, 2006 9:40 AM EST 0 recs
Only 1 hole!
They are as good or better at both SS and 1B than they were last year. When they had the 3rd best record in baseball. They also fixed the bullpen during the offseason and added SP depth.
They also currently have 8 league average or better SP. That gives them valuable chips to trade for a CF.
1B is in reasonable shape for the next few years, while SS remains a weakness.
But only until Pedroia comes up.
by cdamon on
Jan 20, 2006 10:27 AM EST
up
0 recs
Okay okay okay
by JFP on Jan 20, 2006 11:24 AM EST 0 recs
Just match their career numbers
As I said above, Cora is a weak spot. But he is better than Renteria was last year, when they won 95 games.
The reason that Youk went back and forth was so he could get playing time, staying prepared for when he would get a fulltime job, which the team knew was coming this year. And he is better than Millar was last year. He was better last year and should have been playing over Millar, but that's another story.
This has nothing to do with Theo getting back. The Sox have 1 significant need: a CF. They could also use a backup corner OF, preferably right handed. And a left handed reliever.
But they don't need a SS (Cora is no better than adequate, but Pedroia is in the waiting) or 1B.
by cdamon on
Jan 20, 2006 12:47 PM EST
up
0 recs
Great
by JFP on
Jan 20, 2006 1:51 PM EST
up
0 recs
Cora is better than Edgar?
Renteria: .288/.345/.399, 49.1 WARP3 (in 4177 outs).
=> Career FRAR 228, RAA2 at SS is -53> Career FRAR 116, RAA2 at SS is -11
Cora: .244/.310/.349, 14.8 WARP3 (in 1733 outs)
=
When I look at the numbers, I see that Cora has been a good defensive 2b, an average defensive SS, and who is almost hopeless at the plate. Meanwhile, Renteria is a significantly above-average offensive shortstop (Alan Trammel's career line is .285/.352/.415 in comparison), who's also an average defensive SS.
by BobbyMac on
Jan 20, 2006 10:19 PM EST
up
0 recs
look at RAA
According to BP, Renteria was -20 RAA (+2 BRAA -22 FRAA) using 466 outs.
Cora was -4 RAA (-9 BRAA +5 FRAA) using 201 outs.
If you multiply Cora's number by 2.3 to adjust for playing time, he was 9 runs below average. Renteria was 20 runs below average.
As I said earlier, calling Cora better than Renteria is damning with faint praise. If the Sox did not have an elite prospect about ready to come up, I would want them to trade for a SS. But Cora in the short term IS an upgrade over Renteria (by about 11 runs over a season)
What you missed is that Renteria is no where near a league average defensive SS. His defense has been falling for several years now and has reached the point of being atrocious.
I also consider a career 238 EqA below average, not hopeless. By EqA Cora is about as close to league average as Youk, just from the opposite direction. So if people want to call Cora hopeless, they have to consider Youk a star.
by cdamon on
Jan 20, 2006 11:06 PM EST
up
0 recs
thanks for the clarification...
- I prefer to look at a complete "body of work", and I think that by isolating on Renteria 2005 above, you're really selling him short... many other players have difficulty the first year after changing leagues.
- I didn't say anything about Youkilis. That said, I have two comments on the Youk/Cora comparison...
B. Replacement level at the positions Youkilis is capable of manning is much higher than Rep for Cora's positions. I don't think you can just compare to league average EqA for the delta.
- Cora for his career at SS is -11 RAA2 in 308.2 AdjG (costs the team a run at SS every 28 games). Renteria is -53 in 1378.9 (costs his team a run every 26 games). That doesn't seem like much of a difference.
- When I look at Renteria's defensive numbers, I don't see this clear trend you're indicating. What I do see is a very bad season in 2005, which nobody can deny. He made a bunch of errors, and by all accounts didn't seem very confident in the field. But if "most recent performance" is all that matters, why did Boston acquire a guy who was "hitting" .205/.250/.288 in Cleveland? Players have slumps and streaks.
I actually like Alex Cora a lot... very good defender at key positions, takes a walk sometimes, bats lefty. I guess I just don't weigh the season immediately past as highly as most other people when evaluating talent.
by BobbyMac on
Jan 21, 2006 12:04 AM EST
up
0 recs
thanks for the reply
As to Renteria's decline, I look at his last 5 years of rate2
107 92 100 94 85
You can look at this as random, but I see a steady decline line with a blip between 02/03 (the 92/100 pair). A best fit line is a definite and reasonably sharp slope. Prior to last year, it was hard to say for sure the direction, but I think 05 was fairly definitive. This was not a league adjustment. This was a complete failure of his physical body to move to his left. Consistently, even on slow hit balls, he could not move more than about a step to his left and still come up with the ball.
Reasonable point about +/- from 260 for EqA. After I wrote that, I was trying to think about what I believed about it. There is certainly a larger population of players capable of putting up a EqA of 260-X than of putting up an EqA of 260+X. I expect, but do not know for sure, that a lineup with one 260 player replaced with a 260+X player will gain roughly the same number of runs that replacing the same 260 player with a 260-X player will lose. So in an absolute term, the tradeoff is even.
However, at some point X becomes so large that the 260-X player drops to or below replacement level and has essentially no value. In this case, 7 of the 29 SS with 375 PA last year have career EqA comparable to or worse than Cora (from 219 to 243), so this level of batting is clearly acceptable, at least marginally, from a SS.
The by far the most comparable player to Cora is Alex Gonzalez (the Fla one). They have identical 238 career EqA. Gonzalez has a career rate2 of 93, whereas Cora has a career rate2 at SS of 96.
As you say, we will see about Renteria in Atlanta. Having watched him almost every game in 05, I agree he lost confidence at the end of the season. He deserved many mor errors than he was charged, but I think the local scorer took pity on him. But he also looked like someone whose body would no longer respond in a way that allowed him to play SS. I never heard that he was fighting any kind of nagging injury. I think his body has just failed him at a younger age than is normally expected.
Thanks again for your great response. Posts like that are why I enjoy this site.
by cdamon on
Jan 21, 2006 9:02 PM EST
up
0 recs
actually
by wily mo on
Jan 21, 2006 10:40 PM EST
up
0 recs
"there's a reason"
by wily mo on
Jan 20, 2006 8:22 PM EST
up
0 recs
Easy way to explain Theo's Return...
by The Rocc on Jan 20, 2006 1:47 PM EST 0 recs
lineups
As I see it the 3 & 4 hole is even. And the Yankees are better in the other 7 spots.
Yankees Boston
------- --------
Damon Loretta
Jeter Youkilis
A-Rod Ortiz
Sheff Manny
Matsui Varitek
Giambi Nixon
Posada Lowell
Cano Cora
Bernie Stern
by pedrophile on Jan 20, 2006 6:47 PM EST 0 recs
Matchups
So we know the Yankees match up better in 6 of 9 lineup spots (I say 6, not 7, for now because Bernie and Stern probably won't start many games). This tells us almost nothing.
First, you can always juggle things to tell another story. For example, you could match up Nixon or Varitek with Posada if you wanted to tell a more favorable story for the Sox.
Second, even if we know one team 'wins' in more matchups than the other, we don't know if that actaully means they will score more runs or how many more runs they would score. And that seems like the important thing.
by FI on
Jan 21, 2006 12:07 AM EST
up
0 recs
Yes
by mroak89 on
Jan 21, 2006 11:37 AM EST
up
0 recs
800+ or 900+?
by BobbyMac on Jan 23, 2006 1:46 PM EST 0 recs
hello,
by calabrohuaca on Dec 21, 2006 9:53 PM EST 0 recs







