To start a discussion (and make some people upset)
I'm going to go out and say something REALLY crazy (and prove myself one of the biggest/most insane Daric Barton fans out there) and say Daric Barton is the best prospect in the minor leagues. He kicks Delmon Young's butt, and it ain't even close.
Barton age 20, AA:
.316 avg, .410 OBP, .491 SLG, .901 OPS. 35 BB's, 30 SO's in 212 AB's
Young age 20, AA:
.336 avg, .380 OBP, .582 SLG, .968 OPS. 25 BB's 66 SO's in 330 AB's
Actually, the point could be argued... Barton clearly has a far better eye, whereas Young is relying on his contact and freakin huge power (no debate there). Personally (if I were to start a team from scratch) I'd probably take Barton and his .410 OBP, because power develops if it ain't there, and personally I feel Delmon's physical freakiness will eventually catch up with him come Show time and his SLG won't actually approach .600 like it's doing right now. The crux of it is that Barton's best stats are the type that stay consistent throughout the minors, whereas Young's are the type prone to fluctuation. Young, after all, posted a less-than-stellar .285-.303-.447 line in AAA with a .750 OPS.
Will Barton ever approach Young's SLG? Nah. But remember, OBP is a far better indicator of MLB talent than AVG and SLG, since pitchers tend to find ways at MLB level to prevent contact so the walk becomes that much more important. 10 more walks in 100 less at bats is not negligable. An OBP .100 higher than an AVG is phenomenal.. Far better than an OBP .50 points better than the average. Not that I'm saying a .300-.350-.500 player is incredible, but is it better than a .290-.400-.450 when OBP is more valuable than SLG? Both come out to .850 OPS...
So in the end, to assuage hurt souls, I really don't know whether Barton is better than Young (he is). I guess all I'm really trying to do is start a real discussion on these boards, rather than just all the fantasy questions anyone willing to do 20 minutes research and get an opinion of their own can answer on their own.
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Comments
Voted for Young but:
Barton's good but....
Homerism at its finest
by goalieguy on Jan 18, 2006 7:47 PM EST reply actions
Phillies fan
And you're avoiding the point. Come up with a prospect on YOUR favorite team and we can argue about him then!
fair enough
by goalieguy on Jan 18, 2006 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
So far
comps
Barton is a fine prospect - I'd be happy if he was in my favorite team's organization.
But I'll always take the guy with much extraordinary power and a position to play. Sure, power develops past the age of 20 for most people, but that just makes Young's numbers even mre impressive.
What Young has done is very rare and indicative of elite MLB talent.
I just looked at fifteen years worth of data. Here is a list of guys who have hit over 20 HR at the AA/AAA levels as 19 or 20 year olds:
- Juan Gonzalez
- Cliff Floyd
- Paul Konerko
- Derreck Lee
- Eric Chavez
- Corey Patterson
- Andy Marte
- Prince Fielder
by FI on Jan 18, 2006 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
See,
Care to do an analysis of those who post .410+ OBP's at the AA/AAA levels? I would make a bet that the list is similarly elite
Honestly though, this list convinces me that Delmon has more a chance than I expected
20 y/o OBP
- Jim Thome
- Cliff FLoyd
- Luis Castillo
- Vlad Guerrero
- Andruw Jones
- Eric Chavez
- Peter Bergeron
- Adrian Beltre
- Nick Johnson
- Cory Harris
- Hank Blalock
- Miguel Cabrera
by FI on Jan 18, 2006 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
More variance?
But I see your point, although I'd personally take a list with Miggy Cabrera and Vlad Guerrero as the premiers over a list with Paul Konerko and Derrek Lee as the premiers...
Especially since almost all of these players developed some quality measure of power...
Cory Harris had a fluke year, just 194 at bats (though he does have solid discipline over his minor league career) so I'd take issue with his inclusion
(I'd also take issue with Bergeron's inclusion since he also had just ~160 ABs)
I realize he doesn't have many of the above players' power, but I'd be happy if he ended up as almost any of them
Thanks for looking this stuff up, it truly does show Barton is in elite company. Then again, so is Delmon.
sample sizes
If you want to expand the list to include guys in A-ball with .400 OBP (which Barton has also accomplished), the list becomes much longer...
by FI on Jan 18, 2006 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I was
Blalock/Miggy
Blalock wasn't a HR hitter in the minors. More avg and doubles. Seems he traded off some AVG to sell out for the homer. You can't always assume that the good skill of a player will stay the same or get better while his weakness improves. Sometimes he trades off to address his weakness. However, there still may still be some untapped potential with Hank.
by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
Vlad same as Miggy
by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
hahahaha
by TINSTAAPP on Jan 18, 2006 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
Good thing
Thanks for your thoughtful analysis though
i dunno
.400 OBP list
Also, the OBP list has a bias of lower sample size. The Home Run list has guys with larger sample size b/c homers are a count stat rather than rate stat.
by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
Johnson
The one guy on the list that makes sense to compare with Barton is Nick Johnson.
Johnson had insane walke rates so his OBP was quite a bit higher than Barton's, but both players consistently put up those .400+ OBP numbers and both demonstrated similar abilities otherwise. For example, both demonstrated moderate power (~15HR a year) at the same age.
If Barton can be a healthy version of Nick Johnson, he'll have a fine career.
by FI on Jan 18, 2006 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
Barton v Johnson
by vegasbill on Jan 18, 2006 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
NJ
by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
edit
by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
johnson : corrections
Their walk rates are actually comparable, Barton has hit for much higher averages.
No, Johnson had walk rates between 18%-23% of pa as a 19-20 year old. Barton's been between 14%-17%
Their averages are comparable. Barton has not "hit for a much higher average". Johnson hit .345 during his AA season and .317 in A ball. Barton's been around .315 during his whole time in A/AA.
by FI on Jan 19, 2006 8:45 AM EST up reply actions
Birthdates
His AA season was played in 1999, so he was an old 20 for the full season. Barton was an old age 19 for the entire year in '05. If he plays in AA all year this year then he may post similar numbers. But he'll probably be in AAA.
His age 18 year was significantly inferior to Barton's. His age 19 was better statistically, but he was in A the whole year so the two are about equal.
by vegasbill on Jan 19, 2006 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
Best Prospect in Baseball
Hermida had a .225 iso slug in the southern league, Young had a slightly better .246 iso slug. But Hermida had a significantly higher XBH%, 43.4%, than Young, 33.3%. Why was that? Hermida hit 29 doubles to 18 homeruns, while Young hit 13 doubles to 20 homeruns. It seems to me that while Young is 1 1/2 years younger, Hermida may have more growth in terms of power infront of him as more of those doubles go over the fence; his iso slug has been growing for three years running, in 2004 it was only .144, and .109 the year before. And its not as if Hermida doesnt hit homeruns, he hit a homerun every 21.4 ab's, Young also hit a homerun every 21.4 ab's in 2005. Hermida can also match Young's defensive abilities and is a better baserunner.
Barton has the plate discipline that Young lacks, but Hermida can match. Barton walked 97 times with 504 ab's between A and AA, Hermida walked 111 times with 386 ab's all in AA. Hermida can match Barton's control of the strike-zone; Barton had a W:K ratio of 1.23, Hermida had a W:K ratio of 1.25.
You can compare Young to Albert Belle, or Barton to John Olerud. Hermida could be like Bobby Abreu, if his power held steady in the .200 iso slugging area. But if his power continues to grow, as it has significantly every year since he was drafted, he could be good for 35-40 homeruns a year. Lets see, take that power, tons of walks, solid batting average, plus defense in a corner outfield spot, and a great ability to steal bases. Sounds a lot like vintage BArry Bonds to me. That makes him the best prospect in baseball.
by sanchez101 on Jan 18, 2006 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
Jonathan Papelbon
by WakeboardJock on Jan 18, 2006 7:51 PM EST reply actions
Wow
A fastball that no one but Pujols can catch up with. Ok. Excellent.
You're right, a 25 year older starter with one plus pitcher and a couple average pitches is better than 20 year olds playing in AA and AAA and putting up .900+ OPS's.
Paps is a nice pitcher, a nice three potentially a mid three ERA guy for a few years, but he's not the best prospect on his own team, let alone the game.
As for the debate at hand, i'm voting Barton over Young as a hitter, but Young a better overall contributor to a team.
I love performance as much as anyone, but I also recognize that defense must be played, bases must be run, and Young can effect the game in a lot of different ways that Barton could never even dream of.
That said, you can't go wrong with either
Sarcasm
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
Well
minor correction
by FI on Jan 18, 2006 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
Upset?
First of all, you're completely ignoring that plate discipline can be learned, 20 yr olds aren't expected to have great plate discipline, if they do, it's a great bonus, but by no means a deal breaker. I would bank more on Delmon's plate discipline improving than Barton's power.
Second of all, you're comparing the same level at the same age. This is good. You're ignoring though that while the Southern league is a good pitchers' league, the Texas league is a GREAT hitters league. Barton's numbers are going to be slightly inflated and Young's are going to take a hit.
Third, Barton has better plate discipline, sure. But Young makes better contact, has more power, has a lot of speed. You're basically handing top prospect status to Barton because of his plate discipline and an assumption that his power will increase, meanwhile ignoring Delmon's edge in speed and contact ability.
Finally, Delmon Young plays this little thing called 'Defense'. Barton is best suited to DH. He's a liability on the field. He only plays half the game. I don't care how well a guy hits, if he's as bad in the field as Barton is, I couldn't possibly call him the best prospect in the game.
Daric Barton has a great command of the strike zone, but Delmon Young is simply a better prospect and a better player and it's not close.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 8:06 PM EST reply actions
Learning plate discipline?
I can't think of a ton of hitters who have suddenly become more disciplined hitters to any substantial difference. Sure, there are a few, but the list is MUCH smaller than the list of people who develop power, who increase their average, etc.
For the purposes of this discussion, I think we should assume that Delmon Young is not going to be a very patient hitter. At best, MAYBE league average IsoOBP (around .060)
As far as Texas league,
Barton will be a fine 1B... Chavez wasn't supposed to be a great defensive guru, either. Neither were various other GG players. Defense is far more easily learned than good discipline. Plus, he's already rated as "average" at first base (at age 20) so I'm not sure where your comments of "he's a liability on the field" come from....
The rest of the ill-conceived points in your logic have been taken care of (discipline can be learned etc.)
Why would you bank on someone becoming more intelligent instead of someone lifting more waits/maturing physically? I'd argue Delmon is almost finished maturing, whereas Barton will continue for another couple years.
As far as speed, unless he can add an entire base to what Barton would do (happens rarely enough that Barton's far-better OBP probably outdoes it) and unless he can steal successfully 80% of the time, speed is almost worthless (except for Young's position. Barton plays a position that doesn't require speed anyway, so the point is moot).
Delmon's edge in contact is small, to the point that it might fall lower than Barton's because of his less-than-stellar place discipline (swinging at those outside sliders tends to cut the ol' AVG down)
Please keep arguing though
Foolish
Honestly, i knwo you're looking to stir up debate, but Young v. barton is absolutely ridiculous. Why not proposebarton is a one dimensional player. Barton isn't even in the same class as Young. I'd not only take Young over him, i'd take Wood, Marte, Milledge, ermida and probably a few others over him as well. his ceiling simply isn't as high as the others. Great command of the strike zone is handy, but it isn't everything. Just ask Keving Youkilis. Or Jeremy Giambi, Kevin Millar, etc...
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Let's ask
As far as trying to stir up a debate, it's only a debate if there are sides to both arguments. If you'll read the thoughtful posts of others (pro-Young and pro-Barton alike) or make your own stat or otherwise thoughtful analysis, I'll listen to your arguments (since what you argue here is essentially that SLG + defense is more important than OBP... Except in the rarest of cases (of which Young is not one) this argument has been disproven statistically as far as runs created per nine innings/VORP etc.
Don't forget, the main issue in this comparison is that Young plays OF whereas Barton plays 1b. Therefore, our argument becomes restricted to hitting mostly since the defensive requirements for each are very different. As is, I would argue that there are no reports on Barton that are conclusive as to his defensive potential. Defense (which is what I assume you're talking about when calling Barton one dimensional) can be taught. Eye cannot. 25-30 HRs and a .410 OBP with a .450 SLG is simply better than a .350-.360 OBP and a .500 SLG. It's statistically proven.
Proof
As far as stats go... you quoted them yourself. Delmon Young hits for a superior average (.336 in a pitchers league/park v .316 in a hitters league/park), hits for WAY more power (in spite of playing in Pitchers' parks v. barton's time in Hitters' parks). Oh and it should be mentioned that Young has been in pitchers' leagues and parks throughout his minorleague career not just this season, while barton's High A and AA stops have both been in Hitters' leagues.
As far as repots on Barton's defense... here's a report for you, he got moved to DH for a reason and it wasn't so he could work on his cross-stitching while the other team was at bat.
OBP is a good stat, and strike zone judgement is a good tool, but obsessing over it, as you are in using it to homerize barton over Young, makes you look ridiculous. You're leaning on OBP, ignoring the league context and dismissing defense. Sounds like a recipe for a team that can't win a post-season series.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
He was moved to DH for 2 reasons, BUT
The 2nd reason he played DH the first month of the season is that he was learning 1B before or after games with the coaches and he focused on only hitting during the games by DHing until he felt comfortable at 1B. After the first month he rarely was the DH, and even played OF for a game. There has even been whispers from the organization that he might be moved to the OF or back to C. I really think he will be adequate where ever he fields, and Ron Washington will make sure of that. I can't think of any of his infield students who ended up being below average fielders except Olmedo Saenz whose eyes had nervous twitches worse than a kids first visit to the principal's office.
by LizardKing51 on Jan 19, 2006 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
Yep
"Blez: (noticing a scar on his right elbow) Did you have surgery there?
Barton: Yeah, I had an extra muscle that I had to have taken out."
From what I've read the arm didn't really bother him batting, but when he had to throw with any frequency, it became sore. That was the primary reason for the move to 1B in 2005. Like I said before, in spring training he was catching, and having someone else throw the ball back to the pitcher. Since you can't really do that in a game, the move to 1B was sort of necessary. There has been whispers he might change back to catcher or to LF, but I am sceptical until it happens.
By the way, I feel his pain. I am a lefty with a pretty good throwing arm (for football). I can't throw many reps because my elbow is "double jointed." My arm doesn't lock when straight out at the fully extended position, it continues until it is about 10-15 degrees past straight. My arm looks disturbing to some people when I fully extend it. It is totally fine when I limit the use, but if I throw about 40-50 balls hard my elbow becomes unbearably sore and it has actually stiffened to the point where I can't even move it for several hours using force from the other arm when I continued to throw through the pain too long.
by LizardKing51 on Jan 19, 2006 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
Here we are
Let's see how many baseball stars were born with THAT puppy!
"it's proven"?
Plate discipline
Ted Williams (know of him?) never had a season below an OBP of .400 until he was 41. Wouldn't you expect the reverse to be true if discipline can be learned?
Jimmy Rollins, in 5 MLB years, has yet to post an OBP above .348 (in his 2004 career year... he regressed right back to .338 in 2005, when he should have done better by your logic)
One case which might work for you (Bernie Williams) only disproves your point.
Bernie, after some great OBP years in the minors, posted .333 in his first full season. The next year, .384 OBP. The years after were similarly great. Now, at the age of 35 when he should know everything in the game, his OBP has declined. Regardless of his age, the signs that he would have great plate discipline were always there, minors to majors.
Do you have any examples of players who never posted good OBPs at minor league levels and then got into the respectable range of .350-.360+?
Show me the proof that discipline can be taught.
The reason Ted Williams only hit below .400 OBP in one year? He had some of the best eyes in MLB history. You can't teach eyesight. Just like you can't teach natural intelligence, just like you can't teach a guy how to not swing at a pitch he thinks will zoom right over the plate yet instead veers off to the right.
The baseball player has a nanosecond (exaggeration) to make a decision. Can someone really be taught to change a nanosecond's reaction? The pathwork in the brain is laid for a certain response to a certain situation. Either the pathwork is there, or it ain't. If you want me to go into further detail, I've got a good deal of neurology under my belt too to explain exactly why habits like swinging at bad pitches are so hard -- to the point of impossibility -- for players who are dug in deep.
As far as your preference of the low-walk/fast guy over the high-walk/power guy, unbelievable. You're telling me you'd rather have a player get on base once every 3 plate appearances and (if he's one of the best basestealers of all time) steal second successfully 80% of the time than a guy who gets to first bace around once every other plate appearance and who has the potential to go yard every 20th AB? And who'll get doubles even more often? Are you sure you're serious? Unless a player steals successfully 80% of the time, he is a detriment to the amount of runs that can be scored.
And as far as OBP being more valuable than speed/SLG, read any Baseball Prospectus article on the topic, any Bill James article on it, heck read Moneyball for all I care. Whether you believe in this stuff or not, the stats don't lie. Mathematically, OBP gives you more runs than SLG or a guy who never gets on base but when he does has a pretty small chance to get to second (and if he doesn't costs his team the most valuable thing in baseball -- an out).
Any and all of the aforementioned sources prove it better than my emboldened words ever could.
wow
Have you heard of Bill James? Because he says:
All players lose speed as they age; thus, speed-related skills are young player's skills. As a player ages, power increases as a percentage of value, not in every case but in most. Thus, power is an old player's skill. As a player ages, he will tend in most cases to draw more walks. Thus, drawing walks is an old player's skill. As a player ages, his batting average will almost always decrease. Thus, hitting for average is a yong player's skill. As a player ages, he tends to drive in more runs and score fewer. Thus, runs scored are a young player's skill, and RBI are an old player's skill.(1987 Bill James Baseball Abstract, p. 66, my emphasis)All players tend to follow this pattern to one degree or another, and all players are finished when they reach the point at which the gains in power and strike zone judgment can no longer offset the losses in speed and batting average. It makes sense, then, that the further along in this progression the player is (regardless of age), the closer he is to the end of his career (or, conversely, the earlier he is in this progression, the longer he can be expected to play.)
He then does a study indicating that this is true; that among players who had comparable value as rookies -- obviously not comparing Rickey Henderson to Rob Deer or Albert Pujols to Roger Cedeno, but, comparable -- the "young skills" players played 33% more career games than the "old skills" players. When he concentrated solely on speed, he found that fast players played 43% more career games than otherwise comparable slow players.
The point is not that BA/speed are more valuable than power/walks, but that the latter can be expected to develop with age and the former can't as much. (Which of course is not entirely bad news for Barton, since one of his relative weaknesses right now is power.)
See?
Still, James isn't talking about major changes here, and the shift in power is greater than the shift in OBP.
Sorry if I came across as condescending, but often times the best way to get good counter-arguments is to be a total asshole ;-)
Plus, the point of the whole thing is that OBP is more valuable than SLG, which is statistically proven, just as these old player/young player skills are proven by James.
Thanks for the good post!
OK, hold on one second
A Hitter with a .400 batting average and a .410 OBP is NOT a patient hitter whatsoever.
Plate discipline is best characterized by Isolated OBP (Ob Base minus Batting average), and if possible, isolated from HBP (which can contribute a large portion to OBP, like Biggio or Carlos Quentin)
So if we're going to look at how plate correlated with a player's age, we should look at how IsoOBP goes through a players age.
I use the term OBP
Thanks for the clarification
"total a-hole"
by natsfan2005 on Jan 19, 2006 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
Clarification
For this reason, James' point is important but irrelevant to the discussion of whether or not Young will learn discipline. Can he learn it when he's 31? Sure. But that is so far away that it's a point not even worth making. The question is whether or not he'll learn it in the immediate, foreseeable future, and I think the answer is no. I think what we've seen out of Delmon, in terms of discipline, is not likely to vary much one way or another.
walks
by FI on Jan 19, 2006 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
hmm
I wonder what this says for Barton's future plate discipline. Is there a "discipline ceiling" that hitters reach? Could Barton post a .130 or higher IsoOBP in the majors? Just thinking out load here
I like
See guys?! This is much better than fantasy questions. I'm perfectly willing to post a diary such as this on a regular basis making ridiculous generalizations and playing devil's advocate (I do love Barton, though).
If you guys want, that is... This kind of stuff having so many responses shows that htis site doesn't have to be about stupid fantasy questions. Minor league prospect debate is far more exciting. Any ideas on who to compare next? I'm thinking something involving Joel Guzman and perhaps one of the Angels' young studs? Interest?
Barton isoOBP ceiling
The only guys who get a 20%+ walk rate at the MLB level are the ones with great plate discipline and a SLG% over .600 (Bonds, Thomas,Thome in their prime). These are the guys who get pitched around and can feature isoOBP over .150
There are other guys who don't have quite that much power and can still walk in 17%-18% of their plate appearances (think Abreu or Giles). I think it's more fair to compare Barton to these types of players. I think Giles' 2005 season serves as a reasonable ceiling for what Barton's potential isoOBP could be - somewhere between .120 and .130
I don't think he's going to be as good as Giles or Abreu so I don't think he'll get his isoOBP quite that high, but it's a possibilty...
by FI on Jan 20, 2006 2:03 AM EST up reply actions
johnson again
In 2003, Nick Johnson managed to post a .138 isoOBP
So Barton's ceiling got a little higher in my opinion. I would guess he could consistently have an isoOBP around .100 and have a couple peak years where it's as high as .130 or .140
by FI on Jan 20, 2006 2:08 AM EST up reply actions
Delvolping Defense
Maybe Barton will continue to devolp some power, but Delmon Young (who already has more power) should continue to his power as well.
by thedude on Jan 19, 2006 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
I can say that
Barton is also far more athletic than the above players. See the comment regarding his basepath time being in the top 5 or so for Cali league top prospects...
As far as Young's power, sure he might get more, but I'd say Barton has far more frame to fill in than Young, and Barton's compact swing will require less pure weight since he'll apply force closer to the point of rotation and the bat will therefore go more quickly and will therefore need less pure energy to apply the same force... That's the gist of it at least, if there are any real physics buffs in here to elaborate, please do (I'm only a sophomore in HS so only one year of physics under my belt)
And yes, Young will add to his power. He will probably not add to his discipline. Barton's OBP will be significantly better than Young's, and OBP is more important when we consider the fact that according to numerous A's sources Barton made significant strides by the end of the year at 1b after his surgery and therefore defense/arm strength/athleticism become moot points.
That's the crux of the argument. You have to counter that, not Barton's defense. The real thing you should be saying is: is Barton's OBP going to be so much better than Young's that any difference in power will be more than made up by Barton's knack for getting on base and above average power?
Try that tack. Do some research, find out the runs Young creates vs. the runs Barton creates and if they're incredibly huge then Young might have an edge. Maybe. Barton will still develop power, Young most likely won't hit .600 SLG in the majors (though it's clearly possible)
I'm no physicist,but I stayed at a Holiday Inn....
I think a Billy Butler vrs Barton comparison and discussion is a far better comparison, as both look like future DH's. THey are about the same age and have put up numbers of similar value, but Butler with power and Barton with walks. How many major leaguers have high walk rates without power?
As a side note, I think Baseball Prospectus looked at future predictors of success and found that Isolated power was the best indicator of futute success, if given only one stat. Sorry to cite something without a link, but I couldn't find it with a quick search.
by irwin on Jan 19, 2006 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Some high walk, moderate power guys
Looking at the top 30 in walks last year, I see Wilkerson, Johnson, Counsell, Jeter and Zaun, none of whom are true power hitters.
At the high end, you have people like Wade Boggs, who drew many walks with very little HR power.
Does anyone have examples of people who had good walk rates in the minors with little or no power and could not draw walks in the majors? I don't think that drawing walks is as dependent on power as some traditionalists would have you think.
by cdamon on Jan 19, 2006 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
To clarify
Youkilis is a good example here: yes, he still draws walks, but his rate has dropped significantly and hurt his value. I would expect the same with Barton, unless he adds power. It's possible, but I don't know if I would call it likely or a sure thing.
I suspect he will be a good player, possible all-star, who averages 130 games a year. He seems to be fragile, but I would love to see him shake his injury concerns.
by irwin on Jan 20, 2006 1:24 AM EST up reply actions
Injury concerns?
As far as eventually developing power, Barton is a big guy, and contrary to popular belief he is pretty athletic. He already has an OK SLG... is .500-.550 in the majors really that far off, given his current stats and the ability to pick and choose which pitch he wants to hit...
Plus, as far as physics, while a tall body does provide more leverage and more force, I think a smaller one allows the bat to move more quickly through the zone (though I'm not sure about this one so take it with a grain of salt)... If he can draw walks and get the bat through the zone quickly, his average should remain around .300, which would give him a greater opportunity to get doubles/HRs etc... Perhaps he'll be a .300-.430-.500 player? That's still pretty good.
drop off in Youk walks?
His major league numbers are too early to say that much about but he walked 13.3% of his PA in 04 and 14.7% in 05.
Nor has his AAA numbers been going down (but are unsurprisingly better than his ML numbers)
14.2% 10.5% 18.7%
I see little argument for a decline there. 2005 was his best walk rate in MLB and his best walk rate in AAA.
by cdamon on Jan 20, 2006 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
Not close
You seem to think that it is a forgone conclusion that Barton will hit for power, when I haven't seen many reports that say he will. And, it's not like Delmon doesn't KILL Barton in the power department. It's really not close at all. Delmon has 50 HR potential and Barton will be lucky to average 25.
Barton's not a top 10 guy, so it's hard to compare him to the #1 guy.
One comment
All of those things are overrated. Power, Delmon has. That's the only thing that Delmon really has that's valuable that Barton is less likely to develop (and it's not outside the realm of possibility that a guy with his discipline hits 30 a year or so... but most of his power will be from gap doubles etc)
Speed, unless it's utterly game changing (Podsednik, maybe three-five other current MLB players) is more prone to reducing your team's long-term run count than it is to increasing. Barton doesn't need arm strength. Barton's defense will get better under some of the best infield coaches in the Majors (see the transformation of Chavez, Eric, and Crosby, Bobby, and Hatteberg, Scott, and Ellis, Mark... need I go on? Even Giambi was OK under the Oakland defensive tutelage)
Athleticism in baseball is less than important. After all, is Mark Teixeira the most athletic of players? Albert Pujols? Aren't they the guys that you'd want most? With Young's power, why is speed important anyway?? When he's banging out 50 HRs like you expect (though ~40 sounds more plausible at the peak of his career) why need to steal? Wouldn't you trade that for good discipline? His stealing has to be successful a huge portion fo the time to actually help his team, and most major leaguers simply don't have that kind of success rate.
Importance of speed
You're right, athleticism is not necessary to be a great player in baseball. But, it doesn't hurt. See Bonds, Griffey, A-Rod, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Abreu for examples of great athletes who complement their skill for the game with their terrific athleticism. Would Abreu be the same player if he had Barton's athleticism? No.
As far as defense is concerned, there's no guarantee that Barton will be a decent 1b. Believe me, as a Yankee fan, I've seen Giambi at 1b, and he's not decent. I seriously doubt that he forgot how to play defense after he got to NY. Delmon has all of the tools to be a great RF with plus range and a plus arm. There's no way Barton can compete with him defensively until there is great improvement.
Re:
Regarding Abreu, as a Phillies fan he does have OK athleticism, but because of it he tends to slide along and not give his all. Players with small physiques to overcome, I'd argue, would have to work hard day in and day out to become successful. I think Barton has shown that ethic so far from the reports I've read about his conditioning and defensive improvements at first base. Will he be a top defensive 1B? Probably not. But I'd argue his hitting would more than make up for it.
HIGH-larious
All of those things are overrated.
Oh come on, get your nose out of your Moneyball gospel. Tell Dave Roberts and the Red Sox that stolen bases are overrated. Why need to steal when you're banging out 50 hr's? because speed can win ballgames, not just via the stolen base, but also being able to run the bases quickly.
BTW, take a look at your poll, 81% of voters think Delmon is better than barton. 81%! That's not even close.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
well
i like your argument that bartons strengths traditonally maintain while delmons are very volatile and there is some merit to that thought...HOWEVER, power does NOT always develop if its not there (like you said) and having read scouting reports stating that barton's swing creates a topspin on the ball that limits loft and keeps balls in the park, quite frankly i will not give him the benefit of the doubt (like i would to a more toolsy guy, maybe some like lastings?)
and i'd take that "physical freakiness" of delmon's that you mentioned, anyday of the week over barton's unathletic build...while his baseball skills are tremendous, i can't get that excited over a player who not only lacks a position but the typical superstar build...95% of the really great players are superfreak athletes (see pujols & arod)...and while some non-athletically gifted players do succeed (puckett, etc.) im not willing to label barton as the next kirby
exactly
by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
I'd take issue
Physics wise, force on ball is more important than torque/spin. Barton lifts weights, gains 20 pounds, no reason he shouldn't hit around 30 dingers (or at least large double totals)
Was Babe Ruth a superfreak athlete? I don't know -- I always thought he was kind of fat...
barton ain't ruth
by Rob Castellano on Jan 18, 2006 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
That isn't
Just saying that physically the Babe wasn't mister muscle
ok, i gotta ask.
"power develops if it ain't there", full stop?
what about pokey reese? where's his power?
and if delmon has power now, doesn't that mean he's going to develop even more power?
Butler's good
(Barton's better ;-))
Well
Power tends to catch up to plate discipline (more often than the reverse at least... Jason Kendall is an example you'll want to use against me though obviously I have a counter argument ;-))
Young probably has filled most of his body out, and won't physically develop much more. If he does, his speed, defense, strength, and durability fly out the window. Barton can grow without sacrificing any of that (especially speed since he has little of that ;-))
power development
but you can't just assume that everybody with a .410 OBP in AA and chunky thighs is going to grow up to hit 30 home runs. doesn't work that way. barton's just not that tall. that makes a difference.
i'm not calling him fat
I think
Of course, he might have had some "Other help" in achieving those home runs, but Giambi was only an example.
Another example would be Conor Jackson, who has fantastic plate discipline and has hit plenty of doubles, but has not hit too hit many homers in the minors so far. Yet many still project him to be a home run threat in the majors. Maybe not 50 homers, but still a threat.
Young
Barton is underrated by a lot of people, who seem to think that a .200+ ISO is a pre-requisite to be a premier hitter, ignoring that a .170 ISO with a .300 avg and .400 obp is pretty freaking good. He doesn't have the complete lack of power that a lot of failed OBP prospects had. A good chunk of "top" prospects don't make it, but Barton seems about as safe a bet as can be.
by vegasbill on Jan 18, 2006 8:47 PM EST reply actions
See guys
By the way, I just took Barton of Young in round 384 of my 18th semi-keeper dollar dog league ;-)
ha
i still can't believe you took barton first though...
by Rob Castellano on Jan 18, 2006 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
haha
Eh, let's just say it's a win-win situation and a choice I wouldn't want to make for fear of being fired five years later for making the wrong choice
Being devil's advocate is always fun though, especially if you don't believe what you're saying
Though I do believe Barton in his own way is right up there with Young
Barton vs Young the war is on!
See Barton turning around a Volquez fastball at Cal Leaguers.com and tell me he won't hit for power
Jaun Gonzalez, Dave Winfield guys like that...not exactly who I think of for plate discipline but superstar run-producers
Barton looks to me like Brian Giles at first-base. Maybe a better pure hitter
Young sounds like Dave Winfield to me...maybe Albert Belle...Jaun Gonzalez
Notice anything about these comps?? They are all great ballplayers!
Here's a Q? Has anyone of note really suggestion that Delmon Young was going to really make a great impact with base stealing or defense? I can hardly find anything about his glove sooo...what am I to assume...average LF
I know who I'd take...Narton batting 2 and Young batting 3
Nice job case..
"With virtually no chinks in his armor, it's easy to see why managers tabbed him the Southern League's best batting prospect, best power hitter, best outfield arm and most exciting player."
by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
My thoughts on the topic
I am amazed how many people are down on Connor and Daric, because of their homerun totals, but adore tools guys who have yet put up any worthy stats in the minors. I am fairly confident both Barton and Jackson will be successful power hitters in a couple years. Many of the current major league power hitters didn't put up huge homerun totals when they were 18-20. Barton is at about 35 2B, 15 HR, .480 slugging currently. There have been 49 players to hit 30+ homeruns in 2004 or 2005. Here are the players from that 49 player list who put up comparable or worse power numbers at age 18-20 or their first full minor league season if they went to college: Thome, Edmonds, D. Ortiz, Vlad, Alou, Finley, Sosa, Castilla, Rolen, Cabrera, Wilkerson, Blalock, Helton, T. Batista, C. Lee, C. Jones, Cameron, Valentin, Hafner, Bay, Dye, Giambi, and Ensberg. That makes 23 out of 49 recent 30+ homerun hitters that started off with comparable or worse power than Barton currently has. It is a fact that power develops slower than other skills for many, many future power hitters.
Barton is not a base clogger. He looks and acts fairly athletic and he isn't pudgy at all which some have suggested. Sam at Calleaguers has timed most of the players in the league multiple times to get their speed from home to 1B. He attends about 120 games in the league every year, and saw Barton 25 times before he was promoted. He times Barton at 4.47. Here are some other prospect times recorded by Sam over the last couple years: 2005 Ianetta 4.52, EME 4.63, Butler 4.48, Kottaras 4.52, Kendrick 4.40, Wood 4.42; 2004 Nelson Cruz 4.43, Connor Jackson 4.49, Quentin 4.43 As you can see, he isn't a stolen base threat but he is far from the base clogger many suggest he is.
by LizardKing51 on Jan 19, 2006 2:44 AM EST reply actions
Great analysis
haha, these stats are really good stuff
thanks man
It's really hard for me to see 6th
You may say he's 6th, but I'm wondering if that is homerism. Until he shows power and/or defense, he's not that high.
Hitters
- I would put Young and Fielder above him.
- Butler's about even. Probably has higher upside.
- Would like to see more out of Drew and won't make a judgment on Gordon yet.
- I don't think Wood is going to hit for a high enough average to outweigh the huge OBP edge.
by vegasbill on Jan 19, 2006 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Comments
I respect Barton as a hitter only, but those other prospects are at least a good a baseball prospect as Barton.
Hermida
by vegasbill on Jan 19, 2006 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
Hermida?
by smt on Jan 19, 2006 9:51 AM EST reply actions
yep
Getting ahead of myself? What're you talking about?
by Jgaztambide on Jan 19, 2006 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Hermida
Athleticism
Anyhow, on the Barton v. Young issue. I don't think I would take 40-60 BB's over more power, pedigree, defense, speed, arm etc.
by PolkCountyRay on Jan 19, 2006 10:00 AM EST reply actions
not a negative, but...
by FI on Jan 19, 2006 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting theory
I'd first answer with: is this a question?
If it really is, and you're really serious, then I would say that no, it is not a deep rooted disdain for athleticism because they don't have athleticism (I'm assuming you're making an indirect statement that people who support Barton are unathletic/nerdy?)
Billy Beane might choose Barton over Young. Billy Beane was drafted first round specifically because of his physical prowess/5 tool talent.
As for myself, as a sophomore HS I'm already on one varsity sport (baseball) and probably two (soccer) by the end of junior year. Regardless, your post is so... ridiculous... that I shouldn't be offended... but I am. Nearly everyone here is posting coherent, stat-backed arguments to their decisions. You arbitrarily say "I don't think I would take 40-60 BB's over more power, pedigree, defense, speed, arm etc." Why, when we've basically said that the latter three don't matter in this discussion of players playing completely different positions? And what the hell is a pedigree? How many players with "pedigrees" have failed?
And no, we're not trying to "prove a point to traditional scouts." We're trying to make an objective argument that goes against conventional wisdom (which is clearly in favor of Young) because A) it's a legitimate argument, B) it's fun, C) it's better than all the draft questions, and D) Just to make you angry, I'm doing this entire diary specifically to prove a point to traditional scouts.
If...
Why not?
Well...
If he didn't take Young for Barton, he wouldn't qualify as good anymore.
Arguable
Because no one is that good
Milton Bradley. A ticking time bomb. Don't worry about him, because Billy Beane got him. He'll be fine. Right. All they had to give up was Ethier. A steal! Yeah, because no one is smarter than Billy. Those average OPS and decent defensive numbers will do us good!
That Hudson trade. Dan Meyer will work out. You'll see. Because Billy Beane wanted him. Atlanta never knows what they are doing.
Daric Barton is the best prospect in baseball. Because Billy Beane wanted him. I have actually seen that written here.
That Jermaine Dye signing... we all forgot about that. Scott Hatteberg? Trading for Jason Kendall? Don't worry, he'll be better, because no one on Oakland ever declines. Billy Beane wouldn't allow it.
Mark Kotsay for Ramon Hernandez? Good trade or bad? Iffy on that one, although he did rid himself of T. Long. Did force a move to get Kendall, though.
Is Eric Chavez worth the money? So far, no.
Traded Nelson Cruz and Justin Lehr for Keith Ginter. Nope.
Traded Michael Barrett for Damian Miller. Nope.
Traded Aaron Harang for a couple of months of Jose Guillen. Nope.
Check out the "Moneyball" draft 1st rounders. Yeah, they got Swisher, Blanton (both overrated IMO), and the ever average Mark Teahen, but where are the contributions of John McCurdy, Ben Fritz, Jeremy Brown :), and Steve Obenchain? Let's see, he could have had Matt Cain instead of Blanton, Greg Miller instead of McCurdy or Fritz, and Jon Lester instead of Brown or Obenchain. Oh that's right, drafting HS pitchers is a bad idea.
Where's that elusive playoff series win? Don't worry, he's still better than any GM that has won the WS in the history of the game.
I could go on, but I'm tired, and I'm probably forgetting things.
Now, sure there are plenty of deals that have worked out well, including the Mulder deal. He is an excellent GM, probably one of the top 5 in the game. But, he's not God, that's for sure, and that is the way he is treated. Just my take.
Good post on Beane
Back to Barton... I have to admit, I thought he was a fascinating prospect before the 2004 season, and thought that he became one of the best prospects in the game when he was at Peoria. The move off away from catcher lowered his value, as did the Cardinals "giving up" on him. I'm not going to say anything more about my current views on him, as I've written elsewhere, and since I've realized these past few weeks that "Daric Barton" are fighting words on this board, and likely to cause the next Holy War to erupt. But I really liked him as a prospect BEFORE he received the golden Beane touch.

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