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Around SBN: Beyond The Boxscore's Week 17 MLB Power Rankings

To start a discussion (and make some people upset)

I'm going to go out and say something REALLY crazy (and prove myself one of the biggest/most insane Daric Barton fans out there) and say Daric Barton is the best prospect in the minor leagues. He kicks Delmon Young's butt, and it ain't even close.

Barton age 20, AA:
.316 avg, .410 OBP, .491 SLG, .901 OPS. 35 BB's, 30 SO's in 212 AB's

Young age 20, AA:
.336 avg, .380 OBP, .582 SLG, .968 OPS. 25 BB's 66 SO's in 330 AB's

Actually, the point could be argued... Barton clearly has a far better eye, whereas Young is relying on his contact and freakin huge power (no debate there). Personally (if I were to start a team from scratch) I'd probably take Barton and his .410 OBP, because power develops if it ain't there, and personally I feel Delmon's physical freakiness will eventually catch up with him come Show time and his SLG won't actually approach .600 like it's doing right now. The crux of it is that Barton's best stats are the type that stay consistent throughout the minors, whereas Young's are the type prone to fluctuation. Young, after all, posted a less-than-stellar .285-.303-.447 line in AAA with a .750 OPS.

Will Barton ever approach Young's SLG? Nah. But remember, OBP is a far better indicator of MLB talent than AVG and SLG, since pitchers tend to find ways at MLB level to prevent contact so the walk becomes that much more important. 10 more walks in 100 less at bats is not negligable. An OBP .100 higher than an AVG is phenomenal.. Far better than an OBP .50 points better than the average. Not that I'm saying a .300-.350-.500 player is incredible, but is it better than a .290-.400-.450 when OBP is more valuable than SLG? Both come out to .850 OPS...

So in the end, to assuage hurt souls, I really don't know whether Barton is better than Young (he is). I guess all I'm really trying to do is start a real discussion on these boards, rather than just all the fantasy questions anyone willing to do 20 minutes research and get an opinion of their own can answer on their own.

Poll
Is Barton better than Young?
Delmon Young, OF TB Devil Rays (high point briefly bad at AAA)
161 votes
Neither! Others better than both (post analysis below, please!)
19 votes
Daric Barton, 1b/DH Oakland Athletics (high point AA)
22 votes

202 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 117 comments |

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Comments

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Voted for Young but:
I have said that Barton reminds me of a young George Brett, with the bat, he probably doesn't have Brett's destructive all out hustle, but his profile and plate recognition reminds me of a guy that could swat 40 plus doubles, 20 plus HR's and annually contend for a batting title...one man's opinion...i rate Young high becuase his 5 tool ceiling is obvious...I wrote when the Cards traded Barton how 10 years down the road you better hope the Cards get Barton back thru free agency because he is going to be a star.

by gashousegang on Jan 18, 2006 7:42 PM EST reply actions  

Haha
somehow I think Barton is one that the A's might lock up long term

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 7:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Barton's good but....
Do not believe I could consider someone a franchise player that cannot play the field; my vote is for Delmon!

by klmstrat on Jan 18, 2006 7:45 PM EST reply actions  

Homerism at its finest
Let me guess your an A's fan?

by goalieguy on Jan 18, 2006 7:47 PM EST reply actions  

Phillies fan
but yeah, A's tied for #1 or #2 because of the state of the phils

And you're avoiding the point. Come up with a prospect on YOUR favorite team and we can argue about him then!

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

fair enough
My team is Boston and I think Lester is our best prospect, Papelbon maybe a safer pick but Lester has the upside and he's left handed they seem to do well at fenway for some reason since the 406 club came along

by goalieguy on Jan 18, 2006 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

So far
lots of Young fans, but no one has really posted an in-depth stat-backed analysis of why. I can see taking Young due to his position, but I'd like to know why outside of that. Barton seems to be just a better hitter and therefore bigger provider of runs (to get the argument going more)

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 7:51 PM EST reply actions  

comps
Well, you were right about one thing: "it ain't even close".

Barton is a fine prospect - I'd be happy if he was in my favorite team's organization.
But I'll always take the guy with much extraordinary power and a position to play. Sure, power develops past the age of 20 for most people, but that just makes Young's numbers even mre impressive.

What Young has done is very rare and indicative of elite MLB talent.
I just looked at fifteen years worth of data. Here is a list of guys who have hit over 20 HR at the AA/AAA levels as 19 or 20 year olds:

  1. Juan Gonzalez
  2. Cliff Floyd
  3. Paul Konerko
  4. Derreck Lee
  5. Eric Chavez
  6. Corey Patterson
  7. Andy Marte
  8. Prince Fielder
There's one notable bust on that list, but it's generally a very impresive group of sluggers. Delmon's as close to a 'can't miss' star as you see these days.

by FI on Jan 18, 2006 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

See,
this is good analysis. Thanks, man!

Care to do an analysis of those who post .410+ OBP's at the AA/AAA levels? I would make a bet that the list is similarly elite

Honestly though, this list convinces me that Delmon has more a chance than I expected

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

20 y/o OBP
Here's a list of guys who had .400+ OBP at the AA level (min. 150 plate appearances) before the age of 21.
  1. Jim Thome
  2. Cliff FLoyd
  3. Luis Castillo
  4. Vlad Guerrero
  5. Andruw Jones
  6. Eric Chavez
  7. Peter Bergeron
  8. Adrian Beltre
  9. Nick Johnson
  10. Cory Harris
  11. Hank Blalock
  12. Miguel Cabrera
Also a very good list. But there's more variance, which is why I called Delmon more of a "sure thing".

by FI on Jan 18, 2006 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

More variance?
Any list with Corey Patterson can't be perfect ;-)

But I see your point, although I'd personally take a list with Miggy Cabrera and Vlad Guerrero as the premiers over a list with Paul Konerko and Derrek Lee as the premiers...
Especially since almost all of these players developed some quality measure of power...

Cory Harris had a fluke year, just 194 at bats (though he does have solid discipline over his minor league career) so I'd take issue with his inclusion
(I'd also take issue with Bergeron's inclusion since he also had just ~160 ABs)

I realize he doesn't have many of the above players' power, but I'd be happy if he ended up as almost any of them

Thanks for looking this stuff up, it truly does show Barton is in elite company. Then again, so is Delmon.

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

sample sizes
Well, you can't "take issue" with guys with 150-200 at bats when Barton himself only has a .410 OBP with 212 at bats at the AA level.

If you want to expand the list to include guys in A-ball with .400 OBP (which Barton has also accomplished), the list becomes much longer...

by FI on Jan 18, 2006 9:29 PM EST up reply actions  

anyone else
surprised by blalock? hasnt even been close in the majors to that sort of on base.

by SoCalSoxFan on Jan 18, 2006 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I was
also Peter Bergeron who flamed out pretty quickly. Both didn' thave consistent .400 OBP's and both essentially had career years at AA, which explains part of it...

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Blalock/Miggy
Miggy hit .365, so that got him pretty close to .400 just on BA. If we are going to throw out Corey Harris as a comp then I think Miggy isn't a fair comp either.

Blalock wasn't a HR hitter in the minors. More avg and doubles. Seems he traded off some AVG to sell out for the homer. You can't always assume that the good skill of a player will stay the same or get better while his weakness improves. Sometimes he trades off to address his weakness. However, there still may still be some untapped potential with Hank.

"IsoD, IsoP, K/BB, BABIP are weak stats" DrB

by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Vlad same as Miggy
another .360 hitter
"IsoD, IsoP, K/BB, BABIP are weak stats" DrB

by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

hahahaha
Vlad and Barton could barely be less comparable.

by TINSTAAPP on Jan 18, 2006 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Good thing
we're not comparing them, and instead are simply noting that they are in the same club of .400+ OBP producers

Thanks for your thoughtful analysis though

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 10:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure, but
Miggy had 265 AB's to prove his plate prowess (alliteration!)

The guys I'm contending should be thrown out have less than 200...

Still leaves you with Andruw Jones and co

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

i dunno
clearly the power thing is a little rarer, but i think i actually like this list better than the other one.  

by wily mo on Jan 18, 2006 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

.400 OBP list
is misleading due to presence of high batting average hitters. What Vlad and Miggy did has little to do with Barton's performance.

Also, the OBP list has a bias of lower sample size. The Home Run list has guys with larger sample size b/c homers are a count stat rather than rate stat.

"IsoD, IsoP, K/BB, BABIP are weak stats" DrB

by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 9:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Johnson
Yes, good points everyone. Obviously not everyone on the list is a good comparison - I just thought it was worth pointing out how rare it is/isn't to demonstrate that kind of ability to get on base at the AA level.

The one guy on the list that makes sense to compare with Barton is Nick Johnson.

Johnson had insane walke rates so his OBP was quite a bit higher than Barton's, but both players consistently put up those .400+ OBP numbers and both demonstrated similar abilities otherwise. For example, both demonstrated moderate power (~15HR a year) at the same age.

If Barton can be a healthy version of Nick Johnson, he'll have a fine career.

by FI on Jan 18, 2006 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Barton v Johnson
Johnson was 21 when he had his big year in AA.  Barton was only 19 last year, and will more than likely be in the bigs at 21.  Barton was significantly better at ages 18 and 19 than Johnson was, putting up bigger numbers at higher levels.  Their walk rates are actually comparable, Barton has hit for much higher averages.

by vegasbill on Jan 18, 2006 11:11 PM EST up reply actions  

NJ
NJ was a little older but .345/.495/.548 is also far more impressive than Barton's sample sample size AA line.
"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 11:21 PM EST up reply actions  

edit
"sample sample" should be "small sample"
"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 11:22 PM EST up reply actions  

johnson : corrections
Johnson was 20 years old (not 21) in AA and had a full season in AA compared to Barton's half-season. I think it's a fair comparison.

Their walk rates are actually comparable, Barton has hit for much higher averages.

No, Johnson had walk rates between 18%-23% of pa as a 19-20 year old. Barton's been between 14%-17%
Their averages are comparable. Barton has not "hit for a much higher average". Johnson hit .345 during his AA season and .317 in A ball. Barton's been around .315 during his whole time in A/AA.

by FI on Jan 19, 2006 8:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Birthdates
Johnson - September 19, 1978

His AA season was played in 1999, so he was an old 20 for the full season.  Barton was an old age 19 for the entire year in '05.  If he plays in AA all year this year then he may post similar numbers.  But he'll probably be in AAA.

His age 18 year was significantly inferior to Barton's.  His age 19 was better statistically, but he was in A the whole year so the two are about equal.

by vegasbill on Jan 19, 2006 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Database?
Hi FI, where do you get your minor league data for past seasons?

by BobbyMac on Jan 20, 2006 7:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Best Prospect in Baseball
I guess since the Marlin's ownership has turned all the Florida fans sour, Jeremy Hermida doesnt get much credit.  How would you like an outfielder with Delmon's power and Barton's plate discipline?

Hermida had a .225 iso slug in the southern league, Young had a slightly better .246 iso slug.  But Hermida had a significantly higher XBH%, 43.4%, than Young, 33.3%.  Why was that? Hermida hit 29 doubles to 18 homeruns, while Young hit 13 doubles to 20 homeruns.  It seems to me that while Young is 1 1/2 years younger, Hermida may have more growth in terms of power infront of him as more of those doubles go over the fence; his iso slug has been growing for three years running, in 2004 it was only .144, and .109 the year before. And its not as if Hermida doesnt hit homeruns, he hit a homerun every 21.4 ab's, Young also hit a homerun every 21.4 ab's in 2005.  Hermida can also match Young's defensive abilities and is a better baserunner.

Barton has the plate discipline that Young lacks,  but Hermida can match.  Barton walked 97 times with 504 ab's between A and AA, Hermida walked 111 times with 386 ab's all in AA.  Hermida can match Barton's control of the strike-zone; Barton had a W:K ratio of 1.23, Hermida had a W:K ratio of 1.25.

You can compare Young to Albert Belle, or Barton to John Olerud.  Hermida could be like Bobby Abreu, if his power held steady in the .200 iso slugging area.  But if his power continues to grow, as it has significantly every year since he was drafted, he could be good for 35-40 homeruns a year.  Lets see, take that power, tons of walks, solid batting average, plus defense in a corner outfield spot, and a great ability to steal bases.  Sounds a lot like vintage BArry Bonds to me.  That makes him the best prospect in baseball.

by sanchez101 on Jan 18, 2006 11:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Jonathan Papelbon
Jonathan Papelbon is definately the best prospect in baseball. Not only has he shown that he can dominate hitters, but he has a darting fastball that no hitter (except maybe Pujols) can catch up to. On top of that, Schilling is going to teach him a splitter and he's got an above-average/plus slider that will make him not only a horse, but an innings eater. The acronym of TINSTAAP doesn't apply hear. Papelbon is destined for greatness.
when your ERA has letters and not numbers, it's a bad thing- kevin goldstein

by WakeboardJock on Jan 18, 2006 7:51 PM EST reply actions  

Wow
I am a Boston fan, and I love Paps, but... wow...

A fastball that no one but Pujols can catch up with.  Ok.  Excellent.

You're right, a 25 year older starter with one plus pitcher and a couple average pitches is better than 20 year olds playing in AA and AAA and putting up .900+ OPS's.  

Paps is a nice pitcher, a nice three potentially a mid three ERA guy for a few years, but he's not the best prospect on his own team, let alone the game.  

As for the debate at hand, i'm voting Barton over Young as a hitter, but Young a better overall contributor to a team.  

I love performance as much as anyone, but I also recognize that defense must be played, bases must be run, and Young can effect the game in a lot of different ways that Barton could never even dream of.

That said, you can't go wrong with either

by Jgaztambide on Jan 18, 2006 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Sarcasm
I suspect Wakeboard might have been SLIGHTLY sarcastic with his post.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Well
I sure hope so, but you never know.  I've seen dumber things come out of a fellow Boston fans mouth, and i've seen dumber things on this board, so ya never know

by Jgaztambide on Jan 18, 2006 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

minor correction
Papelbon's already throwing the splitter.

by FI on Jan 18, 2006 8:25 PM EST up reply actions  

stupid
Your stupid! Or this is a joke.

by Shamus on Jan 18, 2006 10:18 PM EST up reply actions  

"Your stupid!"
No, it's my stupid!  Give it back!

by limozeen on Jan 18, 2006 11:52 PM EST up reply actions  

right
had to look at it for a second before I saw it. Did not look funny at the time.

by Shamus on Jan 19, 2006 12:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Upset?
It wouldn't make me upset if my 5 year old cousin believed the moon was made of cheese, it's a ludicrous suggestion.  Just like Daric barton being a better prospect than Young, and especially suggesting that Barton 'kicks his butt'.  Not to be mean, but I almost peed myself laughing when i read that.
First of all, you're completely ignoring that plate discipline can be learned, 20 yr olds aren't expected to have great plate discipline, if they do, it's a great bonus, but by no means a deal breaker.  I would bank more on Delmon's plate discipline improving than Barton's power.
Second of all, you're comparing the same level at the same age.  This is good.  You're ignoring though that while the Southern league is a good pitchers' league, the Texas league is a GREAT hitters league.  Barton's numbers are going to be slightly inflated and Young's are going to take a hit.
Third, Barton has better plate discipline, sure.  But Young makes better contact, has more power, has a lot of speed.  You're basically handing top prospect status to Barton because of his plate discipline and an assumption that his power will increase, meanwhile ignoring Delmon's edge in speed and contact ability.
Finally, Delmon Young plays this little thing called 'Defense'.  Barton is best suited to DH.  He's a liability on the field.  He only plays half the game.  I don't care how well a guy hits, if he's as bad in the field as Barton is, I couldn't possibly call him the best prospect in the game.

Daric Barton has a great command of the strike zone, but Delmon Young is simply a better prospect and a better player and it's not close.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 8:06 PM EST reply actions  

Learning plate discipline?
I take exception to your assessment that Plate discipline can be learned.  TO a certain extent, yes, it can be learned, but to an extremely limited degree.  I would think that it is the single skill (IsoOBP) which changes the least from level to level, year to year.  

I can't think of a ton of hitters who have suddenly become more disciplined hitters to any substantial difference.  Sure, there are a few, but the list is MUCH smaller than the list of people who develop power, who increase their average, etc.  

For the purposes of this discussion, I think we should assume that Delmon Young is not going to be a very patient hitter.  At best, MAYBE league average IsoOBP (around .060)

by Jgaztambide on Jan 18, 2006 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

As far as Texas league,
Barton's worst year came in it hitting wise, and he's still a 20 year old at AA.

Barton will be a fine 1B... Chavez wasn't supposed to be a great defensive guru, either. Neither were various other GG players. Defense is far more easily learned than good discipline. Plus, he's already rated as "average" at first base (at age 20) so I'm not sure where your comments of "he's a liability on the field" come from....
The rest of the ill-conceived points in your logic have been taken care of (discipline can be learned etc.)
Why would you bank on someone becoming more intelligent instead of someone lifting more waits/maturing physically? I'd argue Delmon is almost finished maturing, whereas Barton will continue for another couple years.

As far as speed, unless he can add an entire base to what Barton would do (happens rarely enough that Barton's far-better OBP probably outdoes it) and unless he can steal successfully 80% of the time, speed is almost worthless (except for Young's position. Barton plays a position that doesn't require speed anyway, so the point is moot).
Delmon's edge in contact is small, to the point that it might fall lower than Barton's because of his less-than-stellar place discipline (swinging at those outside sliders tends to cut the ol' AVG down)

Please keep arguing though

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Foolish
Was that due to playing in a hitters league (unlikely) or the fact that he was facing better quality pitching (more likely)
Honestly, i knwo you're looking to stir up debate, but Young v. barton is absolutely ridiculous.  Why not proposebarton is a one dimensional player.  Barton isn't even in the same class as Young.  I'd not only take Young over him, i'd take Wood, Marte, Milledge, ermida and probably a few others over him as well.  his ceiling simply isn't as high as the others.  Great command of the strike zone is handy, but it isn't everything.  Just ask Keving Youkilis.  Or Jeremy Giambi, Kevin Millar, etc...

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Let's ask
Youkilis after this year, since this year will be his first chance to consistently start without looking over his back, mmmkay?

As far as trying to stir up a debate, it's only a debate if there are sides to both arguments. If you'll read the thoughtful posts of others (pro-Young and pro-Barton alike) or make your own stat or otherwise thoughtful analysis, I'll listen to your arguments (since what you argue here is essentially that SLG + defense is more important than OBP... Except in the rarest of cases (of which Young is not one) this argument has been disproven statistically as far as runs created per nine innings/VORP etc.

Don't forget, the main issue in this comparison is that Young plays OF whereas Barton plays 1b. Therefore, our argument becomes restricted to hitting mostly since the defensive requirements for each are very different. As is, I would argue that there are no reports on Barton that are conclusive as to his defensive potential. Defense (which is what I assume you're talking about when calling Barton one dimensional) can be taught. Eye cannot. 25-30 HRs and a .410 OBP with a .450 SLG is simply better than a .350-.360 OBP and a .500 SLG. It's statistically proven.

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Proof
2+2 can be proven, it is a fact, what you're suggesting, is not factually 'provable'.
As far as stats go... you quoted them yourself.  Delmon Young hits for a superior average (.336 in a pitchers league/park v .316 in a hitters league/park), hits for WAY more power (in spite of playing in Pitchers' parks v. barton's time in Hitters' parks).  Oh and it should be mentioned that Young has been in pitchers' leagues and parks throughout his minorleague career not just this season, while barton's High A and AA stops have both been in Hitters' leagues.
As far as repots on Barton's defense... here's a report for you, he got moved to DH for a reason and it wasn't so he could work on his cross-stitching while the other team was at bat.
OBP is a good stat, and strike zone judgement is a good tool, but obsessing over it, as you are in using it to homerize barton over Young, makes you look ridiculous.  You're leaning on OBP, ignoring the league context and dismissing defense.  Sounds like a recipe for a team that can't win a post-season series.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

He was moved to DH for 2 reasons, BUT
Neither are what you hint towards.  He was moved to DH primarily because he was born with an extra muscle in his throwing arm which he had surgically removed in the offseason.  He DHed the first month of the season so that he wouldn't have the stress of throwing the ball on the arm.  He actually was used as a catcher last spring training and had someone else throw the ball back to the pitcher.

The 2nd reason he played DH the first month of the season is that he was learning 1B before or after games with the coaches and he focused on only hitting during the games by DHing until he felt comfortable at 1B.  After the first month he rarely was the DH, and even played OF for a game.  There has even been whispers from the organization that he might be moved to the OF or back to C.  I really think he will be adequate where ever he fields, and Ron Washington will make sure of that.  I can't think of any of his infield students who ended up being below average fielders except Olmedo Saenz whose eyes had nervous twitches worse than a kids first visit to the principal's office.

by LizardKing51 on Jan 19, 2006 12:35 AM EST up reply actions  

ga
i'm sorry, he was born with WHAT?

by wily mo on Jan 19, 2006 12:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Yep
This quote is directly from Barton's mouth in a face to face interview with AN:

"Blez:  (noticing a scar on his right elbow)  Did you have surgery there?

Barton:  Yeah, I had an extra muscle that I had to have taken out."

From what I've read the arm didn't really bother him batting, but when he had to throw with any frequency, it became sore.  That was the primary reason for the move to 1B in 2005.  Like I said before, in spring training he was catching, and having someone else throw the ball back to the pitcher.  Since you can't really do that in a game, the move to 1B was sort of necessary.  There has been whispers he might change back to catcher or to LF, but I am sceptical until it happens.

By the way, I feel his pain.  I am a lefty with a pretty good throwing arm (for football).  I can't throw many reps because my elbow is "double jointed."  My arm doesn't lock when straight out at the fully extended position, it continues until it is about 10-15 degrees past straight.  My arm looks disturbing to some people when I fully extend it.  It is totally fine when I limit the use, but if I throw about 40-50 balls hard my elbow becomes unbearably sore and it has actually stiffened to the point where I can't even move it for several hours using force from the other arm when I continued to throw through the pain too long.

by LizardKing51 on Jan 19, 2006 1:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Here we are
saying Barton isn't a "superfreak"

Let's see how many baseball stars were born with THAT puppy!

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 7:17 AM EST up reply actions  

"it's proven"?
What exactly proved it... you bolding the words?  Show me the proof that plate discipline "cannot be taught."  That seems totally off to me, both because of things that are proven (that among comparable players, the low-walk/fast guy will generally age better than the high-walk/power guy -- i.e. young players' vs. old players' skills), and because of things that just make sense (that plate discipline has more to do with experience than with God-given gifts, and thus can be learned.)  I think plate discipline, along with power, are the exact things you can expect to improve in a young player.
and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Jan 19, 2006 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Plate discipline
If plate discipline is learned with age, why hasn't Carl Crawford after 3 full MLB seasons posted an OBP greater than .331?

Ted Williams (know of him?) never had a season below an OBP of .400 until he was 41. Wouldn't you expect the reverse to be true if discipline can be learned?

Jimmy Rollins, in 5 MLB years, has yet to post an OBP above .348 (in his 2004 career year... he regressed right back to .338 in 2005, when he should have done better by your logic)

One case which might work for you (Bernie Williams) only disproves your point.

Bernie, after some great OBP years in the minors, posted .333 in his first full season. The next year, .384 OBP. The years after were similarly great. Now, at the age of 35 when he should know everything in the game, his OBP has declined. Regardless of his age, the signs that he would have great plate discipline were always there, minors to majors.

Do you have any examples of players who never posted good OBPs at minor league levels and then got into the respectable range of .350-.360+?

Show me the proof that discipline can be taught.

The reason Ted Williams only hit below .400 OBP in one year? He had some of the best eyes in MLB history. You can't teach eyesight. Just like you can't teach natural intelligence, just like you can't teach a guy how to not swing at a pitch he thinks will zoom right over the plate yet instead veers off to the right.

The baseball player has a nanosecond (exaggeration) to make a decision. Can someone really be taught to change a nanosecond's reaction? The pathwork in the brain is laid for a certain response to a certain situation. Either the pathwork is there, or it ain't. If you want me to go into further detail, I've got a good deal of neurology under my belt too to explain exactly why habits like swinging at bad pitches are so hard -- to the point of impossibility -- for players who are dug in deep.

As far as your preference of the low-walk/fast guy over the high-walk/power guy, unbelievable. You're telling me you'd rather have a player get on base once every 3 plate appearances and (if he's one of the best basestealers of all time) steal second successfully 80% of the time than a guy who gets to first bace around once every other plate appearance and who has the potential to go yard every 20th AB? And who'll get doubles even more often? Are you sure you're serious? Unless a player steals successfully 80% of the time, he is a detriment to the amount of runs that can be scored.

And as far as OBP being more valuable than speed/SLG, read any Baseball Prospectus article on the topic, any Bill James article on it, heck read Moneyball for all I care. Whether you believe in this stuff or not, the stats don't lie. Mathematically, OBP gives you more runs than SLG or a guy who never gets on base but when he does has a pretty small chance to get to second (and if he doesn't costs his team the most valuable thing in baseball -- an out).

Any and all of the aforementioned sources prove it better than my emboldened words ever could.

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

wow
I have no idea where you get off being so condescending; you seem awfully proud of knowing things that are very obvious.  Yes, I've heard of Ted Williams.  Yes, I understand that OBP is more important than SLG and speed.

Have you heard of Bill James?  Because he says:

All players lose speed as they age; thus, speed-related skills are young player's skills.  As a player ages, power increases as a percentage of value, not in every case but in most.  Thus, power is an old player's skill.  As a player ages, he will tend in most cases to draw more walks.  Thus, drawing walks is an old player's skill.  As a player ages, his batting average will almost always decrease.  Thus, hitting for average is a yong player's skill.  As a player ages, he tends to drive in more runs and score fewer.  Thus, runs scored are a young player's skill, and RBI are an old player's skill.

All players tend to follow this pattern to one degree or another, and all players are finished when they reach the point at which the gains in power and strike zone judgment can no longer offset the losses in speed and batting average.  It makes sense, then, that the further along in this progression the player is (regardless of age), the closer he is to the end of his career (or, conversely, the earlier he is in this progression, the longer he can be expected to play.)

(1987 Bill James Baseball Abstract, p. 66, my emphasis)

He then does a study indicating that this is true; that among players who had comparable value as rookies -- obviously not comparing Rickey Henderson to Rob Deer or Albert Pujols to Roger Cedeno, but, comparable -- the "young skills" players played 33% more career games than the "old skills" players.  When he concentrated solely on speed, he found that fast players played 43% more career games than otherwise comparable slow players.

The point is not that BA/speed are more valuable than power/walks, but that the latter can be expected to develop with age and the former can't as much. (Which of course is not entirely bad news for Barton, since one of his relative weaknesses right now is power.)

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Jan 19, 2006 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

See?
if you'd posted that, I wouldn't have taken offense.

Still, James isn't talking about major changes here, and the shift in power is greater than the shift in OBP.

Sorry if I came across as condescending, but often times the best way to get good counter-arguments is to be a total asshole ;-)

Plus, the point of the whole thing is that OBP is more valuable than SLG, which is statistically proven, just as these old player/young player skills are proven by James.

Thanks for the good post!

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

OK, hold on one second
Let us make one thing very clear.  A high OBP does NOT equal discipline.  Discipline is the ability to take walks, to work counts, etc.  HIgh OBP's can be reached through having a high average

A Hitter with a .400 batting average and a .410 OBP is NOT a patient hitter whatsoever.

Plate discipline is best characterized by Isolated OBP (Ob Base minus Batting average), and if possible, isolated from HBP (which can contribute a large portion to OBP, like Biggio or Carlos Quentin)

So if we're going to look at how plate correlated with a player's age, we should look at how IsoOBP goes through a players age.  

by Jgaztambide on Jan 19, 2006 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I use the term OBP
loosely to mean plate discipline, but you're correct and far more accurate than I am in calling plate discipline IsoOBP

Thanks for the clarification

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 7:22 PM EST up reply actions  

"total a-hole"
Is this diary better than a fantasy baseball diary? no doubt. But can you possibly tone down the self admitted "total a-hole" angle a bit? I don't think I can read a diary series where one guys intentionally tries to be a prick in 30 of the 100 posts.
"I may not be a class act, but I'm an American." Ron Artest on wanting to play for the Olympic team

by natsfan2005 on Jan 19, 2006 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha sure
as long as I'm sure I'll get responses

And I really am sorry for coming across that way... I guess the idea came from "Miracle" in taht I wanted to make sure there was a response

I promise I'm not really an asshole

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

cool
No harm done, and I learned something myself (thanks to FI for the interesting link.)
and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Jan 20, 2006 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Clarification
I think we need to discuss something important here.  When James says that "older players will tend to take more walks", he doesn't mean that a prospect at age 21 will learn to take walks.  he's talking about a player past his peak (say, 31 or 32 years old).  

For this reason, James' point is important but irrelevant to the discussion of whether or not Young will learn discipline.  Can he learn it when he's 31?  Sure.  But that is so far away that it's a point not even worth making.  The question is whether or not he'll learn it in the immediate, foreseeable future, and I think the answer is no.  I think what we've seen out of Delmon, in terms of discipline, is not likely to vary much one way or another.  

by Jgaztambide on Jan 19, 2006 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

walks
No, player's ability to take walks generally increases from age 21 to the late 30's http://www.tangotiger.net/agepatterns.txt I find this is *especially* true for guys with power, so I think Delmon will be o.k.

by FI on Jan 19, 2006 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

hmm
interesting, thanks for sharing that.  I'm not entirely certain I read it correctly, but the increase in walks in undeniable, I think.  

I wonder what this says for Barton's future plate discipline.  Is there a "discipline ceiling" that hitters reach?  Could Barton post a .130 or higher IsoOBP in the majors?  Just thinking out load here

by Jgaztambide on Jan 19, 2006 7:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I like
the sound of that one.

See guys?! This is much better than fantasy questions. I'm perfectly willing to post a diary such as this on a regular basis making ridiculous generalizations and playing devil's advocate (I do love Barton, though).

If you guys want, that is... This kind of stuff having so many responses shows that htis site doesn't have to be about stupid fantasy questions. Minor league prospect debate is far more exciting. Any ideas on who to compare next? I'm thinking something involving Joel Guzman and perhaps one of the Angels' young studs? Interest?

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Barton isoOBP ceiling
Good question.

The only guys who get a 20%+ walk rate at the MLB level are the ones with great plate discipline and a SLG% over .600 (Bonds, Thomas,Thome in their prime). These are the guys who get pitched around and can feature isoOBP over .150
There are other guys who don't have quite that much power and can still walk in 17%-18% of their plate appearances (think Abreu or Giles). I think it's more fair to compare Barton to these types of players. I think Giles' 2005 season serves as a reasonable ceiling for what Barton's potential isoOBP could be - somewhere between .120 and .130

I don't think he's going to be as good as Giles or Abreu so I don't think he'll get his isoOBP quite that high, but it's a possibilty...

by FI on Jan 20, 2006 2:03 AM EST up reply actions  

johnson again
Actually, the Nick Johnson comparison might work here, too.

In 2003, Nick Johnson managed to post a .138 isoOBP
So Barton's ceiling got a little higher in my opinion. I would guess he could consistently have an isoOBP around .100 and have a couple peak years where it's as high as .130 or .140

by FI on Jan 20, 2006 2:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Delvolping Defense
How can you say he will learn to play better defense.  I suppose someone could have said the same about Manny Ramirez, Jose Offerman, Alfonso Soriano or Jason Giambi, but none of them ever did become great defensivly.

Maybe Barton will continue to devolp some power, but Delmon Young (who already has more power) should continue to his power as well.

by thedude on Jan 19, 2006 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I can say that
because all the above players DID develop defensively, just they were so bad that they developed to a subpar level. Giambi, I would argue, was league-average or just slightly below average at Oakland. Barton will develop defensively because that's what all of Oakland's players do due to their fielding coaches. See: just about every homegrown player on the Oakland roster.

Barton is also far more athletic than the above players. See the comment regarding his basepath time being in the top 5 or so for Cali league top prospects...

As far as Young's power, sure he might get more, but I'd say Barton has far more frame to fill in than Young, and Barton's compact swing will require less pure weight since he'll apply force closer to the point of rotation and the bat will therefore go more quickly and will therefore need less pure energy to apply the same force... That's the gist of it at least, if there are any real physics buffs in here to elaborate, please do (I'm only a sophomore in HS so only one year of physics under my belt)

And yes, Young will add to his power. He will probably not add to his discipline. Barton's OBP will be significantly better than Young's, and OBP is more important when we consider the fact that according to numerous A's sources Barton made significant strides by the end of the year at 1b after his surgery and therefore defense/arm strength/athleticism become moot points.

That's the crux of the argument. You have to counter that, not Barton's defense. The real thing you should be saying is: is Barton's OBP going to be so much better than Young's that any difference in power will be more than made up by Barton's knack for getting on base and above average power?

Try that tack. Do some research, find out the runs Young creates vs. the runs Barton creates and if they're incredibly huge then Young might have an edge. Maybe. Barton will still develop power, Young most likely won't hit .600 SLG in the majors (though it's clearly possible)

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm no physicist,but I stayed at a Holiday Inn....
But I am pretty sure you have the whole compact swing thing backwards as far as power generation goes. A longer swing should leave the bat head traveling faster. It also coincides with experience, in that the longest home runs seems to come from tall guys with long arms and big muscles. [probably a good question for your physics instructor] So, as far as power potential goes, you have to like Young frame a whole lot more. Also, when you factor in Young's big-time arm [90+ as an amateur] and speed and you have to give him a big edge there now and in the future.

I think a Billy Butler vrs Barton comparison and discussion is a far better comparison, as both look like future DH's. THey are about the same age and have put up numbers of similar value, but Butler with power and Barton with walks. How many major leaguers have high walk rates without power?

As a side note, I think Baseball Prospectus looked  at future predictors of success and found that Isolated power was the best indicator of futute success, if given only one stat.  Sorry to cite something without a link, but I couldn't find it with a quick search.

by irwin on Jan 19, 2006 9:05 PM EST up reply actions  

awesome
Your analysis makrs sense, I'll ask around!

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Some high walk, moderate power guys
You could also say that few people who have good eyes don't develop power.

Looking at the top 30 in walks last year, I see Wilkerson, Johnson, Counsell, Jeter and Zaun, none of whom are true power hitters.

At the high end, you have people like Wade Boggs, who drew many walks with very little HR power.

Does anyone have examples of people who had good walk rates in the minors with little or no power and could not draw walks in the majors? I don't think that drawing walks is as dependent on power as some traditionalists would have you think.

by cdamon on Jan 19, 2006 11:33 PM EST up reply actions  

To clarify
My point wasn't that Barton wouldn't continue to draw walks in a good number, it just that his rate is likely to drop from his great level if he doesn't have significant power [~20 hrs per year].

Youkilis is a good example here: yes, he still draws walks, but his rate has dropped significantly and hurt his value. I would expect the same with Barton, unless he adds power. It's possible, but I don't know if I would call it likely or a sure thing.

I suspect he will be a good player, possible all-star, who averages 130 games a year. He seems to be fragile, but I would love to see him shake his injury concerns.

by irwin on Jan 20, 2006 1:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Injury concerns?
What such concerns? I know he had surgery to remove an extra muscle in his arm at the beginning of the year -- this was discussed earlier (although perhaps lower down) in the thread... Apparently, it hurt his throwing, but didn't affect anything else very much. He fully recovered by midseason (approximately the time he became the full time first baseman)

As far as eventually developing power, Barton is a big guy, and contrary to popular belief he is pretty athletic. He already has an OK SLG... is .500-.550 in the majors really that far off, given his current stats and the ability to pick and choose which pitch he wants to hit...

Plus, as far as physics, while a tall body does provide more leverage and more force, I think a smaller one allows the bat to move more quickly through the zone (though I'm not sure about this one so take it with a grain of salt)... If he can draw walks and get the bat through the zone quickly, his average should remain around .300, which would give him a greater opportunity to get doubles/HRs etc... Perhaps he'll be a .300-.430-.500 player? That's still pretty good.

by mroak89 on Jan 20, 2006 7:19 AM EST up reply actions  

drop off in Youk walks?
What are you basing that on?

His major league numbers are too early to say that much about but he walked 13.3% of his PA in 04 and 14.7% in 05.

Nor has his AAA numbers been going down (but are unsurprisingly better than his ML numbers)
14.2% 10.5% 18.7%

I see little argument for a decline there. 2005 was his best walk rate in MLB and his best walk rate in AAA.

by cdamon on Jan 20, 2006 9:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Not close
Delmon Young by a mile... the only thing Barton can do better is draw walks. Power, speed, defense, arm strength, and overall athleticism are all dominated by Delmon. Plus, he hits for average just as well (if not better) than Barton. It's really not close.

You seem to think that it is a forgone conclusion that Barton will hit for power, when I haven't seen many reports that say he will. And, it's not like Delmon doesn't KILL Barton in the power department. It's really not close at all. Delmon has 50 HR potential and Barton will be lucky to average 25.

Barton's not a top 10 guy, so it's hard to compare him to the #1 guy.

by jc3 on Jan 18, 2006 8:09 PM EST reply actions  

One comment
"...speed, defense, arm strength, and overall athleticism are all dominated by Delmon."
All of those things are overrated. Power, Delmon has. That's the only thing that Delmon really has that's valuable that Barton is less likely to develop (and it's not outside the realm of possibility that a guy with his discipline hits 30 a year or so... but most of his power will be from gap doubles etc)

Speed, unless it's utterly game changing (Podsednik, maybe three-five other current MLB players) is more prone to reducing your team's long-term run count than it is to increasing. Barton doesn't need arm strength. Barton's defense will get better under some of the best infield coaches in the Majors (see the transformation of Chavez, Eric, and Crosby, Bobby, and Hatteberg, Scott, and Ellis, Mark... need I go on? Even Giambi was OK under the Oakland defensive tutelage)

Athleticism in baseball is less than important. After all, is Mark Teixeira the most athletic of players? Albert Pujols? Aren't they the guys that you'd want most? With Young's power, why is speed important anyway?? When he's banging out 50 HRs like you expect (though ~40 sounds more plausible at the peak of his career) why need to steal? Wouldn't you trade that for good discipline? His stealing has to be successful a huge portion fo the time to actually help his team, and most major leaguers simply don't have that kind of success rate.

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Importance of speed
You don't need to steal bases to have your speed help you. It helps your range in the outfield. It helps overall baserunning, unless you have no baserunning instincts, which hardly seems to be the case with Delmon Young. Players with baserunning skill and the speed to go with it have a lot more value on the bases than a slow guy (even with skill), obviously.

You're right, athleticism is not necessary to be a great player in baseball. But, it doesn't hurt. See Bonds, Griffey, A-Rod, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Abreu for examples of great athletes who complement their skill for the game with their terrific athleticism. Would Abreu be the same player if he had Barton's athleticism? No.

As far as defense is concerned, there's no guarantee that Barton will be a decent 1b. Believe me, as a Yankee fan, I've seen Giambi at 1b, and he's not decent. I seriously doubt that he forgot how to play defense after he got to NY. Delmon has all of the tools to be a great RF with plus range and a plus arm. There's no way Barton can compete with him defensively until there is great improvement.

by jc3 on Jan 18, 2006 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Re:
I'd say Giambi did forget a bit how to be a good defensive 1B guy. Not that he was stellar in Oakland, but when he got to NYC, the focus was on hitting rather than fielding since he'd trot out to DH a lot as well.

Regarding Abreu, as a Phillies fan he does have OK athleticism, but because of it he tends to slide along and not give his all. Players with small physiques to overcome, I'd argue, would have to work hard day in and day out to become successful. I think Barton has shown that ethic so far from the reports I've read about his conditioning and defensive improvements at first base. Will he be a top defensive 1B? Probably not. But I'd argue his hitting would more than make up for it.

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

HIGH-larious
"...speed, defense, arm strength, and overall athleticism are all dominated by Delmon."
All of those things are overrated.

Oh come on, get your nose out of your Moneyball gospel.  Tell Dave Roberts and the Red Sox that stolen bases are overrated.  Why need to steal when you're banging out 50 hr's?  because speed can win ballgames, not just via the stolen base, but also being able to run the bases quickly.

BTW, take a look at your poll, 81% of voters think Delmon is better than barton.  81%!  That's not even close.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

To:
Dave Roberts and the Red Sox:
Stealing is overrated
So is bunting

Which is why the Red Sox were below average in both categories except for a few occassions

And it's only 78% now ;-)

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 7:18 AM EST up reply actions  

well
i'd go with my boy lastings over barton but thats neither here nor there

i like your argument that bartons strengths traditonally maintain while delmons are very volatile and there is some merit to that thought...HOWEVER, power does NOT always develop if its not there (like you said) and having read scouting reports stating that barton's swing creates a topspin on the ball that limits loft and keeps balls in the park, quite frankly i will not give him the benefit of the doubt (like i would to a more toolsy guy, maybe some like lastings?)

and i'd take that "physical freakiness" of delmon's that you mentioned, anyday of the week over barton's unathletic build...while his baseball skills are tremendous, i can't get that excited over a player who not only lacks a position but the typical superstar build...95% of the really great players are superfreak athletes (see pujols & arod)...and while some non-athletically gifted players do succeed (puckett, etc.) im not willing to label barton as the next kirby

by Rob Castellano on Jan 18, 2006 8:35 PM EST reply actions  

exactly
it's simplistic to say Barton just needs to lift weights and he'll hit 30+ homers. Strength helps you hit for power but your swing still needs loft, backspin, and unless you've got super brute strength and bat speed you've gotta forgo the predominant inside out hitting style Barton is reported to have and pull the ball more.
"IsoD, IsoP, K/BB, BABIP are weak stats" DrB

by natsfan2005 on Jan 18, 2006 8:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd take issue
with those reports labelling Barton as having a "topspin"

Physics wise, force on ball is more important than torque/spin. Barton lifts weights, gains 20 pounds, no reason he shouldn't hit around 30 dingers (or at least large double totals)
Was Babe Ruth a superfreak athlete? I don't know -- I always thought he was kind of fat...

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

barton ain't ruth
sorry, im not buying the "babe was fat" argument...you were right when you said that babe was a "superfreak" but only because he didn't need the athletic build to dominate...obviously there was a much weaker talent pool back then so maybe he could dominate despite his build...either way, barton is no babe ruth

by Rob Castellano on Jan 18, 2006 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

That isn't
the comparison I'm making

Just saying that physically the Babe wasn't mister muscle

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 9:46 PM EST up reply actions  

ok, i gotta ask.

"power develops if it ain't there", full stop?  
what about pokey reese?  where's his power?  

and if delmon has power now, doesn't that mean he's going to develop even more power?  

by wily mo on Jan 18, 2006 8:44 PM EST reply actions  

oh and my vote
neither!  billy butler!  all right now it's on

by wily mo on Jan 18, 2006 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Butler's good
I like him fine, no lengthy arguments here

(Barton's better ;-))

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Well
Reese did not have Barton's hitting talent...

Power tends to catch up to plate discipline (more often than the reverse at least... Jason Kendall is an example you'll want to use against me though obviously I have a counter argument ;-))

Young probably has filled most of his body out, and won't physically develop much more. If he does, his speed, defense, strength, and durability fly out the window. Barton can grow without sacrificing any of that (especially speed since he has little of that ;-))

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

power development
by the way i'm a huge barton fan, i'm not trying to hate on him.  i actually do consider him a top 10 prospect.  just not ahead of delmon.  or butler.

but you can't just assume that everybody with a .410 OBP in AA and chunky thighs is going to grow up to hit 30 home runs.  doesn't work that way.  barton's just not that tall.  that makes a difference.  

by wily mo on Jan 18, 2006 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

wow, chuncky thighs?
where did that come from. . . he's hardly chunky

by SoCalSoxFan on Jan 18, 2006 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

i'm not calling him fat
just looking for some way to distinguish him from pokey reese.  maybe that wasn't it.

by wily mo on Jan 19, 2006 3:10 AM EST up reply actions  

I think
I think he was referring to an idea that Bill James proved / believed, that is that the more patient hitters will develop power due to their pitch selectivity.  For example, Jason Giambi was not exactly a masher back in the minors.  but he was incredibly selective, and he did hit for a lot of doubles, and that combination eventually manifested itself in the form of Home runs in the majors.

Of course, he might have had some "Other help" in achieving those home runs, but Giambi was only an example.  

Another example would be Conor Jackson, who has fantastic plate discipline and has hit plenty of doubles, but has not hit too hit many homers in the minors so far.  Yet many still project him to be a home run threat in the majors.  Maybe not 50 homers, but still a threat.  

by Jgaztambide on Jan 18, 2006 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Young
Young's better, simple as that.  Even if Barton ends up a better hitter, Young has a better all-around game.

Barton is underrated by a lot of people, who seem to think that a .200+ ISO is a pre-requisite to be a premier hitter, ignoring that a .170 ISO with a .300 avg and .400 obp is pretty freaking good.  He doesn't have the complete lack of power that a lot of failed OBP prospects had.  A good chunk of "top" prospects don't make it, but Barton seems about as safe a bet as can be.

by vegasbill on Jan 18, 2006 8:47 PM EST reply actions  

See guys
isn't this much more fun than "who should I take next" questions?

By the way, I just took Barton of Young in round 384 of my 18th semi-keeper dollar dog league ;-)

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 9:05 PM EST reply actions  

ha
even though i don't agree with you, very nice post...im getting tired of the lazyass fantasy advice questions

i still can't believe you took barton first though...

by Rob Castellano on Jan 18, 2006 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

haha
well the point isn't to be serious as much as it is to get a conversation going... Would I pass up on Delmon for Barton???
Eh, let's just say it's a win-win situation and a choice I wouldn't want to make for fear of being fired five years later for making the wrong choice

Being devil's advocate is always fun though, especially if you don't believe what you're saying

Though I do believe Barton in his own way is right up there with Young

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Barton vs Young the war is on!
Just kidding but I've researched the issue...I've seen Barton swing the bat...I waould like to see more osf young doin' that (Anybody knows of a video link of Young swingin' or Fieldin' let me know)... lets control ourselves here. Offense is getting guys on and moving them homeBarton looks like he'll be good at both and Young looks like he'll be okay at one and possibly GREAT at the other...

See Barton turning around a Volquez fastball at Cal Leaguers.com and tell me he won't hit for power

Jaun Gonzalez, Dave Winfield guys like that...not exactly who I think of for plate discipline but superstar run-producers

Barton looks to me like Brian Giles at first-base. Maybe a better pure hitter

Young sounds like Dave Winfield to me...maybe Albert Belle...Jaun Gonzalez

Notice anything about these comps?? They are all great ballplayers!

Here's a Q? Has anyone of note really suggestion that Delmon Young was going to really make a great impact with base stealing or defense? I can hardly find anything about his glove sooo...what am I to assume...average LF

I know who I'd take...Narton batting 2 and Young batting 3

casedog

by casejud on Jan 18, 2006 9:51 PM EST reply actions  

Nice job case..
Except Young is a RIGHT fielder.

"With virtually no chinks in his armor, it's easy to see why managers tabbed him the Southern League's best batting prospect, best power hitter, best outfield arm and most exciting player."

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jan 18, 2006 11:46 PM EST up reply actions  

haha
great analysis, that's what counts

by mroak89 on Jan 18, 2006 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

My thoughts on the topic
These are the hitters I rank above Barton:  Young, Hermida, Wood, Drew, and Quentin.  That puts Barton 6th among hitters.

I am amazed how many people are down on Connor and Daric, because of their homerun totals, but adore tools guys who have yet put up any worthy stats in the minors.  I am fairly confident both Barton and Jackson will be successful power hitters in a couple years.  Many of the current major league power hitters didn't put up huge homerun totals when they were 18-20.  Barton is at about 35 2B, 15 HR, .480 slugging currently.  There have been 49 players to hit 30+ homeruns in 2004 or 2005.  Here are the players from that 49 player list who put up comparable or worse power numbers at age 18-20 or their first full minor league season if they went to college: Thome, Edmonds, D. Ortiz, Vlad, Alou, Finley, Sosa, Castilla, Rolen, Cabrera, Wilkerson, Blalock, Helton, T. Batista, C. Lee, C. Jones, Cameron, Valentin, Hafner, Bay, Dye, Giambi, and Ensberg.  That makes 23 out of 49 recent 30+ homerun hitters that started off with comparable or worse power than Barton currently has.  It is a fact that power develops slower than other skills for many, many future power hitters.

Barton is not a base clogger.  He looks and acts fairly athletic and he isn't pudgy at all which some have suggested.  Sam at Calleaguers has timed most of the players in the league multiple times to get their speed from home to 1B.  He attends about 120 games in the league every year, and saw Barton 25 times before he was promoted.  He times Barton at 4.47.  Here are some other prospect times recorded by Sam over the last couple years:  2005 Ianetta 4.52, EME 4.63, Butler 4.48, Kottaras 4.52, Kendrick 4.40, Wood 4.42; 2004 Nelson Cruz 4.43, Connor Jackson 4.49, Quentin 4.43  As you can see, he isn't a stolen base threat but he is far from the base clogger many suggest he is.

by LizardKing51 on Jan 19, 2006 2:44 AM EST reply actions  

Great analysis
This is the type of counter argument I can't counter (but maybe later when I have some time I'll try anyway of course)

haha, these stats are really good stuff

thanks man

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 7:20 AM EST up reply actions  

It's really hard for me to see 6th
If I was starting a team tomorrow, I wouldn't take him over Fielder, Marte, Alex Gordon, Ian Stewart, or Chris Young, either. Now, you add in guys like Butler, Guzman, Conor Jackson, Lastings Milledge, and Nick Markakis, and you could argue that each one of them is a better long-term prospect than Barton.

You may say he's 6th, but I'm wondering if that is homerism. Until he shows power and/or defense, he's not that high.

by jc3 on Jan 19, 2006 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Hitters
I think the comment was comparing them strictly as hitters.  At the plate, Barton is one of the very best in the minors.  
  • I would put Young and Fielder above him.  
  • Butler's about even.  Probably has higher upside.
  • Would like to see more out of Drew and won't make a judgment on Gordon yet.  
  • I don't think Wood is going to hit for a high enough average to outweigh the huge OBP edge.
This is strictly at the plate.  Other prospects move ahead of Barton because of position, defense, etc, but give him his due as a hitter.  Very few hitters have displayed his skillset at such a young age.

by vegasbill on Jan 19, 2006 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Comments
He made comments about Barton that did not refer to his pure hitting ability, so I assumed that he was referring to him as a baseball player, not just a hitter.

I respect Barton as a hitter only, but those other prospects are at least a good a baseball prospect as Barton.

by jc3 on Jan 19, 2006 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Hermida
Totally forgot Hermida, who is also better at this point.

by vegasbill on Jan 19, 2006 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Hermida?
I know he's older, but he seems to have both of Young's and Barton's good points.

by smt on Jan 19, 2006 9:51 AM EST reply actions  

yep
I would rather have Hermida over either of these guys.  not a popular opinion, of course, but whatever.  I think the kid is going to be one of the most productive players in our generation.  

Getting ahead of myself?  What're you talking about?

by Jgaztambide on Jan 19, 2006 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Hermida
is someone Oakland fans have been drooling over for a while (many proposed shipping Zito for Hermida as the basis of a deal) so that isn't off base at all. Hermida is clearly in the same ballpark as both Young and Barton. I just chose Barton to make the discussion more vehement

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Athleticism
I enjoy reading how in some circles, athleticism is considered a negative as would have to believed on this board that given two equal players, many people would choose the less ahtletic one.  Is this to prove a point to traditional scouts or possibly a deep rooted disdain for athleticism they never possessed.

Anyhow, on the Barton v. Young issue.  I don't think I would take 40-60 BB's over more power, pedigree, defense, speed, arm etc.

by PolkCountyRay on Jan 19, 2006 10:00 AM EST reply actions  

not a negative, but...
I don't think anybody considers athleticism as a negative. However, I think a lot of people see the 'athletic' adjective and instantly think 'overrated'.

by FI on Jan 19, 2006 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Interesting theory
"Is this to prove a point to traditional scouts or possibly a deep rooted disdain for athleticism they never possessed."
I'd first answer with: is this a question?

If it really is, and you're really serious, then I would say that no, it is not a deep rooted disdain for athleticism because they don't have athleticism (I'm assuming you're making an indirect statement that people who support Barton are unathletic/nerdy?)
Billy Beane might choose Barton over Young. Billy Beane was drafted first round specifically because of his physical prowess/5 tool talent.
As for myself, as a sophomore HS I'm already on one varsity sport (baseball) and probably two (soccer) by the end of junior year. Regardless, your post is so... ridiculous... that I shouldn't be offended... but I am. Nearly everyone here is posting coherent, stat-backed arguments to their decisions. You arbitrarily say "I don't think I would take 40-60 BB's over more power, pedigree, defense, speed, arm etc." Why, when we've basically said that the latter three don't matter in this discussion of players playing completely different positions? And what the hell is a pedigree? How many players with "pedigrees" have failed?

And no, we're not trying to "prove a point to traditional scouts." We're trying to make an objective argument that goes against conventional wisdom (which is clearly in favor of Young) because A) it's a legitimate argument, B) it's fun, C) it's better than all the draft questions, and D) Just to make you angry, I'm doing this entire diary specifically to prove a point to traditional scouts.

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

If...
Billy Beane takes Barton over Young, he's not nearly as smart as you guys seem to think he is.

by jc3 on Jan 19, 2006 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Why not?
and do you think BB isn't smart? Why not? Other than perhaps John Schuerholtz (who competes against a bunch of idiot GMs in the NL East and has a solid market otherwise) is there a GM who has succeeded more in his tenure than Billy Beane (win/loss wise)?

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 5:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Well...
it depends. Most people who root for the A's think he's infallible. I think he's good, but not nearly that.

If he didn't take Young for Barton, he wouldn't qualify as good anymore.

by jc3 on Jan 19, 2006 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Arguable
but why don't you think he's as good as us A's fans do?

by mroak89 on Jan 19, 2006 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Because no one is that good
See, the way I look at it, it doesn't matter what he does. He's always right. If someone else had signed Loaiza to that deal, he'd get killed. Personally, I don't like the deal, but A's fans defend it. Because Billy Beane did it. Period.

Milton Bradley. A ticking time bomb. Don't worry about him, because Billy Beane got him. He'll be fine. Right. All they had to give up was Ethier. A steal! Yeah, because no one is smarter than Billy. Those average OPS and decent defensive numbers will do us good!

That Hudson trade. Dan Meyer will work out. You'll see. Because Billy Beane wanted him. Atlanta never knows what they are doing.

Daric Barton is the best prospect in baseball. Because Billy Beane wanted him. I have actually seen that written here.

That Jermaine Dye signing... we all forgot about that. Scott Hatteberg? Trading for Jason Kendall? Don't worry, he'll be better, because no one on Oakland ever declines. Billy Beane wouldn't allow it.

Mark Kotsay for Ramon Hernandez? Good trade or bad? Iffy on that one, although he did rid himself of T. Long. Did force a move to get Kendall, though.

Is Eric Chavez worth the money? So far, no.

Traded Nelson Cruz and Justin Lehr for Keith Ginter. Nope.

Traded Michael Barrett for Damian Miller. Nope.

Traded Aaron Harang for a couple of months of Jose Guillen. Nope.

Check out the "Moneyball" draft 1st rounders. Yeah, they got Swisher, Blanton (both overrated IMO), and the ever average Mark Teahen, but where are the contributions of John McCurdy, Ben Fritz, Jeremy Brown :), and Steve Obenchain? Let's see, he could have had Matt Cain instead of Blanton, Greg Miller instead of McCurdy or Fritz, and Jon Lester instead of Brown or Obenchain. Oh that's right, drafting HS pitchers is a bad idea.

Where's that elusive playoff series win? Don't worry, he's still better than any GM that has won the WS in the history of the game.

I could go on, but I'm tired, and I'm probably forgetting things.

Now, sure there are plenty of deals that have worked out well, including the Mulder deal. He is an excellent GM, probably one of the top 5 in the game. But, he's not God, that's for sure, and that is the way he is treated. Just my take.

by jc3 on Jan 20, 2006 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Good post on Beane
I admit, even though I'm not an A's fan, I have to check myself sometimes from viewing A's moves through rose-colored glasses.  That said, I thought Loaiza was a bum coming into 2005, and that maybe he'd do well in Washington - being a bum in a big park.  He did.  I still think he's a bum, but the A's have a small foul area and a good defense - so he might do well again.  Still I like the Cardinals move of giving a non-guaranteed (very cheap) contract to Ponson.  This move seems a lot better, in terms of GM moves this off-season.  He's a bum too, but at least he's 5 years younger.  

Back to Barton... I have to admit, I thought he was a fascinating prospect before the 2004 season, and thought that he became one of the best prospects in the game when he was at Peoria.  The move off away from catcher lowered his value, as did the Cardinals "giving up" on him.  I'm not going to say anything more about my current views on him, as I've written elsewhere, and since I've realized these past few weeks that "Daric Barton" are fighting words on this board, and likely to cause the next Holy War to erupt.  But I really liked him as a prospect BEFORE he received the golden Beane touch.  

by BobbyMac on Jan 21, 2006 12:31 AM EST up reply actions  

HOLD ON!
Did someone say Daric?!

Get the torches...

by mroak89 on Jan 21, 2006 1:00 AM EST up reply actions  

That was "Derrek"
as in Lee.  Really.  And yes, I burn if you set me on fire.

by BobbyMac on Jan 21, 2006 1:16 AM EST reply actions  

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