question on BJ Upton

by DavidWrightismyGod on Jan 18, 2006 5:04 PM EST Comment 9 comments

hi, i haven't much lately on what the D-rays are planning on doing with Upton this year. are they still looking to switch his position? is he going to start the year at durham or in the majors? if he plays a full year, what sort of numbers do people think he'll put up? and i'm pretty sure he is still eligible for RoY, am i right in this? thanks for any opinions and thoughts on the topic.

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I think

He's actually not eligible for ROY due to his 159 AB call up in 2004. I think he's earned the right to be this year's starting shortstop. Julio Lugo's bound to be traded given that several teams are still in need of a shortstop and he's the best available option. At a minimum, I'd say B.J. starts the year at Durham and comes up for good when Lugo is flipped at the deadline.

Hey Bartender! I think ol' Jobu needs a refill!

by nothinlikethetown on Jan 18, 2006 5:28 PM EST reply actions

Not eligible for ROY

B.J. Upton is not eligible for the Rookie of the Year because he had 159 ABs in 2004, and I think the max to maintain rookie eligibility is 129. I can't give any links or anything, but my understanding is that the plan is that Upton is the D-Rays opening day shortstop. I think this is the smart move--the Rays have very little to play for this year other than developing young players, so there's no reason not to give Upton every opportunity to play the position where is value is highest. I'm sure he'll make a lot of errors but all the scouts say he has the range and talent to play it, he just makes mistakes on routine plays. I'm guessing by your handle that you're a Mets fan (as am I)--if so, you may remember we had a young shortstop about a decade or so ago that had the same problem--Rey Ordonez. He worked his problems out and became a stellar defender (3 GGs)--I hope Upton can do the same, mostly because I've got him in by Scoresheet keeper league. Just a wild guess as to MLB production this year:

.290/.360/.460--good enough to play anywhere, but fantastic for a shortstop

by martytomlinson on Jan 18, 2006 5:36 PM EST reply actions

d'oh!

Someone beat me to it on the ROY thing, and with all the rumors about Lugo I had absentmindedly assumed he had been traded--I still think he will be...

by martytomlinson on Jan 18, 2006 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

i remember ordonez quite well

if only he was comparable to upton in more ways, he might still be playing.

by DavidWrightismyGod on Jan 18, 2006 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

Upton

I seem to remember reading (i forget where) that the new regime in TB will try to keep him at SS. I think as a hitter he will be very similar to Carlos Beltran; good plate discipline + good speed, with gradually increasing power as he ages. Beltran is a legitamate allstar playing centerfield, imagine getting that from shortstop. I think thats why theyre still making an effort to keep Upton at shortstop.

I think he'll hit .280/.350/.450 next year, and is capable of really breaking out and hitting .300/.400/.500. How much time he gets in the majors depends on when TB trades Julio Lugo.

by sanchez101 on Jan 18, 2006 6:06 PM EST reply actions

upton

beltran is an interesting comp, but they way i remember it, beltran always had the power and speed, and it was the plate discipline that improved markedly as he got older.

upton already hits the ball very hard (and he's just 20, yikes), so i think his offensive ceiling is, if anything, higher than beltran's. it's a real conundrum what to do about him defensively, though. it's just not obvious that the "leave him at short and hope he stops making errors" strategy will work.

by jpahk on Jan 18, 2006 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

Upton

Many seem to be anointing him the opening day starter, however I'm not so sure. I think a lot will have to do with how he progresses this offseason and during ST. Jimy Williams was hired to basically fix him, lets hope it works.

Down in Tampa, the talk from D-Rays' fans is that he most likely will not be the opening day starter. If Lugo is traded, as most expect, then the Rays' will sign a stop-gap. The name thrown around the most has been Royce Clayton. Now,if Upton can cut his errors down to around 35-40 this year, I think he'll be able to justifiably be our SS.

"Chuck Lamar, you're fired"- Stuart Sternburg.

by Tyler on Jan 18, 2006 7:20 PM EST reply actions