Justin Upton

by GregJP on Jan 14, 2006 11:59 AM EST

It's looking like John is in the minority when it comes to Justin Upton. John has him ranked 14th among hitters, which would probably put him around 20th overall.

Bryan Smith says he would put him 4th overall, and Deric McKamey has him 2nd behind Young. I'm anticipating that BA will also rank him in the top 5.

I just recently passed on Upton to go with Billingsley in the 2nd round of my draft, and am now kicking myself.

What do you guys think? The consensus is that he is a better player than his brother.

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Upton

John is known as being conservative and I'm sure he is just waiting to see him play this year.

It's ok for guys like us to hear a report that he is better than his brother and draft accordingly.

But John runs a paid service and is too professional to rank a guy on hearsay.

just my opinion.

by pedrophile on Jan 14, 2006 12:03 PM EST reply actions

He has the talent sure & I wont bet against him, but I have a hard time putting a guy who has yet to have an AB above the high school level in the top 20 let alone top 10 of prospects, I think John nailed it.

by goalieguy on Jan 14, 2006 12:09 PM EST reply actions

upton

I tend to be conservative, yes, about guys like Upton. I am more willing to take risks on college guys like Alex Gordon, who have proven themslves at a higher level of competition.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure that Upton is a terrific prospect. But until I get some objective pro data to look at along with the high school scouting reports, I can't rank him as high as some experts do.

by John Sickels on Jan 14, 2006 1:20 PM EST reply actions

re

It would be interesting to see where these people all had Chris Nelson last year. I know Upton is considered more talented than Nelson was last year, but everyone was incredibly high on Nelson. Thus far, he hasnt exactly fufiled those expectations.

http://www.as-future.blogspot.com/

by blee1134 on Jan 14, 2006 1:42 PM EST reply actions

Nelson

He did get over-hyped last year, partially because of the "Coors factor" but I think he'll turn it around. Maybe not quite as good as everyone was saying, but he still has a great chance to be a very good player. Interesting question w/ where some of these people had Nelson last year, but I really don't see Upton turning into the next Nelson. Nelson was given very high praise, but didn't draw the comps to ARod/Griffey that Justin is, which is a big difference to me.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Jan 14, 2006 3:20 PM EST up reply actions

McKarney

Had Nelson in his Top 5 last year.

by 3Com Park on Jan 16, 2006 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

Actually...

he was #13 last year.

by jc3 on Jan 16, 2006 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

Last year...

BA had Chris Nelson at 26; Jim Callis had him at 23rd with two other writers having him at 29 and another at 30th (from the BA handbook); on-deck 28; and I guess Sickels had him at 12th among hitters, so you can see why Sickels is being cautious, though I very much doubt Justin bombs like Nelson did.
http://www.attheplate.com/2005/05_rookied.htm

by ultxmxpx on Jan 17, 2006 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

Upton

In addition to McKamey, BA's Jim Callis recently said Upton is #2 overall on his list (behind Delmon).

by rhd on Jan 14, 2006 8:22 PM EST reply actions

I don't see

how anyone could rate Upton #2 overall. C'mon, he still hasn't registered 1 at-bat in the pro levels. He has the tools to quickly become the 2nd or 1st best propsect but there's no way I'd put him above Wood(101 XBH at the SS position is ridiculous) or Hermida.

by albo4lyfe on Jan 14, 2006 9:23 PM EST up reply actions

The knocks

on Hermida include that his ceiling may be somewhat limited and while Wood's accomplishment of 100 XBH's is impressive, striking out once a game in A-ball is not. If the scouts are right that he is as talented/advanced as ARod/Griffey were when they were drafted, then he absolutely belongs ahead of them. Callis is one of the most knowledgeable prospect experts out there and talks to scouts all the time. I aint gonna argue w/ him.

"Second guessers are guys that could have never gotten it right the first time." - Tommy Lasorda (for guys that have no other defense for their actions.)

by slurve on Jan 14, 2006 9:35 PM EST up reply actions

Callis

Especially after he got the first 18(!) draft picks correct in his projection. I may not agree with what he writes all the time but you've got to give him some credit for this.

by William K @ Minor League Ball on Jan 15, 2006 12:37 AM EST up reply actions