Another silly poll
The continuing saga of a member (who shall remain nameless) to try to put Dustin Pedroia atop the list of prospects in the entire league has now reached BJ Upton, who is technically not a prospect, but spent the entire year at AAA last year. For our intents and purposes, we will label him as a prospect.
The poll is, as usual, who will have a better career, BJ Upton or Dustin Pedroia. Now, most people will think this is silly, but I want to see how many people actually think Pedroia will have a better career. For reference, John Sickels lists Pedroia outside of the top 40 hitters, while Upton, if still eligible, I'm sure would reside in the top 10, if not the top 5.
Thanks.
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Pedroia
www.baseballprospects.us/2005/11/20062006_hitting_prospects_lis_1.html
by GregJP on Jan 12, 2006 10:11 AM EST 0 recs
Great List
I like Carter and Suzuki in those spots. LOL
by GregJP on
Jan 12, 2006 10:27 AM EST
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More info
by jc3 on
Jan 12, 2006 10:30 AM EST
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Wow
by Brickhaus on
Jan 12, 2006 1:09 PM EST
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Kaaihue
- He pans out players with a lot of K's as high-risk. I'm not really clear on what adjustments he makes. Marte and Fielder both cool off the stands a lot, and he has them very high. Kaaihue played in a very good hitting environment and still whiffed 20% of the time as a 21-year-old in A-ball. Stewart was a year younger, injured, and wasn't over 25%, and played in a different park.
- I don't know what he's doing for park adjustments. I thought maybe they were highly considered seeing Marte so high, but Kaaihue played at High Desert, where the TEAM batting line was .301/.367/.501. He was above his team average at .307/.428/.497. And, as noted above, he hasn't exactly raked at other stops.
I like John Jaso too. But anyone who ranks him 14th and doesn't rank Delmon Young has to be working the "shock value" angle, I think.
by BobbyMac on
Jan 13, 2006 2:54 AM EST
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Yes I Did
by GregJP on Jan 12, 2006 10:34 AM EST 0 recs
I know many consider me a wacko
Upton is only a year younger.
Upton is playing in a serious hitter's park.
As I have said previously, I trust performance on the field more than I trust scouts.
Upton 305/398/499 78 E (all at AAA)
Pedroia 310/394/473 7 E (mix of A/AA/AAA)
Upton has an edge in power. I believe the difference in level just about washes out against the park difference and Pedroia's lack of prior pro experience. Slight edge to Upton until you consider that Pedroia's numbers are depressed by a wrist injury last summer.
Pedroia's numbers prior to the injury were comparable or better to the best of Upton's numbers to date.
Upton stagnated last year. Maybe the errors are weighing on him or he was just disappointed about spending the year back in Durham. But the reality was that his numbers, considering park were only so so. Add in that he may need to be moved from middle infield, and I would take Pedroia over him.
I think Pedroia will force his way into the major league lineup by mid-year. If he stagnates this year, I will concede that I have over-rated him. However, I expect to have converts to my line of thinking by this time next year.
by cdamon on Jan 12, 2006 10:40 AM EST 0 recs
park factors
Upton......2004.......Southern.....0.91.....0.878 (104)
Upton......2004.......Internat'l...1.11.....0.930 (264)
Upton......2005.......Internat'l...1.11.....0.882 (545)
Pedroia....2004.......Fla State....0.94.....0.940 (107)
Pedroia....2004.......Sally L......0.89.....1.034 (50)
Pedroia....2005.......Eastern......1.08.....0.917 (256)
Pedroia....2005.......Internat'l...1.05.....0.738 (204)
The Internat'l League is something of a hitters league, but competition there, if I recall correctly, correlates more closely than any other circuit (including Japan #s) to the majors. Durham, I don't think, is an extreme hitters park, either.
Here are Szymborski's complete calculations...
1.11 (runs), 1.03 (hits), 0.94 (doubles), 1.11 (homers), 1.00 (walks), 0.99 (ks).
And here's the now-famous link: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/34611/
by Azteca on
Jan 12, 2006 11:00 AM EST
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Durham
by Brickhaus on
Jan 12, 2006 1:17 PM EST
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New Park was Built in 1988
The facility can play to the strength of some, but watching Upton play there last season I didn't get the feeling that his stats were inflated.
by rockies73 on
Jan 12, 2006 4:08 PM EST
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Pawtucket is pitcher's park
A park factor of 1.11 is extreme. Coors Field is 1.12.
I agree that the IL overall tracks to offensive numbers in the majors reasonably well. I consider it somewhat of a pitcher's league, as the pitchers need to be taken down a notch to match statistics.
by cdamon on
Jan 12, 2006 1:39 PM EST
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Some problems with this
- Upton put up better #'s than Pedroia and he only played at AAA vs. Pedroia at 4 levels. Oh, and he's younger.
- Last year at AAA, Upton went 303/392/490 with 18 HR, 44 SB (only 13 CS), and 78 BB. All at age 20. Pedroia went 324/409/508 at AA, then 255/356/382 at AAA, all at age 21. The difference in the Pedroia AA OPS and Upton's AAA OPS is batting average-driven. Upton's iso OBP & SLG are both better. How in the world are Upton's #'s so-so vs. Pedroia?? It makes no sense. I'll give Pedroia an injury pass at AAA for now, but he hasn't proven a thing above AA.
- About defense: most people believe that he can play SS at a high level. His errors are supposedly ones that can be corrected. Even if he needs to move, he'd be a premium CF defensively by most accounts.
by jc3 on
Jan 12, 2006 11:34 AM EST
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Note to John
Perhaps it would be worthwhile to split the Diary section of the website into a General Discussions list and a Polls/Discussion list, or possibly even a Fantasy/Polls/Discussion list. These are obviously a little more seasonal as there will most likely be less fantasy talk come September than there is right now. It would also be a way to keep more general discssion diaries near the top of the list, and available for immediate reading.
Just a thought.
by lenred on Jan 12, 2006 10:52 AM EST 0 recs







