Another silly poll

by jc3 on Jan 12, 2006 9:58 AM EST

The continuing saga of a member (who shall remain nameless) to try to put Dustin Pedroia atop the list of prospects in the entire league has now reached BJ Upton, who is technically not a prospect, but spent the entire year at AAA last year. For our intents and purposes, we will label him as a prospect.

The poll is, as usual, who will have a better career, BJ Upton or Dustin Pedroia. Now, most people will think this is silly, but I want to see how many people actually think Pedroia will have a better career. For reference, John Sickels lists Pedroia outside of the top 40 hitters, while Upton, if still eligible, I'm sure would reside in the top 10, if not the top 5.

Thanks.

Poll

Better career: BJ Upton or Dustin Pedroia?

BJ Upton

73 votes

Dustin Pedroia

10 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

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Comments

Pedroia

This guy likes Pedroia better.

www.baseballprospects.us/2005/11/20062006_hitting_prospects_lis_1.html

by GregJP on Jan 12, 2006 10:11 AM EST 0 recs

Now, that's a great list!

by jc3 on Jan 12, 2006 10:17 AM EST up 0 recs

Great List

I thought you would like it. :)

I like Carter and Suzuki in those spots. LOL

by GregJP on Jan 12, 2006 10:27 AM EST up 0 recs

More info

Did you read his explanation for leaving Ian Stewart and Delmon Young off of his list? It's definitely an interesting read...

by jc3 on Jan 12, 2006 10:30 AM EST up 0 recs

Wow

When John Jaso is the Rays' best prospect (better than Upton or Young), something's out of whack. Also nice to see that a guy who's never hit above .250 outside of the Cali league (Kila Kaaihue) is 'destined for stardom'...

by Brickhaus on Jan 12, 2006 1:09 PM EST up 0 recs

Kaaihue

... is a good example of a couple flaws I think his system has, both relating to ballparks. Another symptom of these perceived flaws is the extreme number of AZ prospects on here. Not that they don't have some good prospects, but even Lyle Overbay shredded their minor league system, so I'd be extra careful with their prospects. Anyway, back to my two "flaws":

He pans out players with a lot of K's as high-risk. I'm not really clear on what adjustments he makes. Marte and Fielder both cool off the stands a lot, and he has them very high. Kaaihue played in a very good hitting environment and still whiffed 20% of the time as a 21-year-old in A-ball. Stewart was a year younger, injured, and wasn't over 25%, and played in a different park.
I don't know what he's doing for park adjustments. I thought maybe they were highly considered seeing Marte so high, but Kaaihue played at High Desert, where the TEAM batting line was .301/.367/.501. He was above his team average at .307/.428/.497. And, as noted above, he hasn't exactly raked at other stops.

Anyway, I am not anti-Kaaihue or anything. He could be pretty good, but I don't really agree that he's a lower risk than Ian Stewart. Stewart's edge in power at a younger age will allow him to "cover up" other weaknesses in his game and still be a solid-plus major leaguer. And if he improves those weak areas in the development process, look out!

I like John Jaso too. But anyone who ranks him 14th and doesn't rank Delmon Young has to be working the "shock value" angle, I think.

by BobbyMac on Jan 13, 2006 2:54 AM EST up 0 recs

Yes I Did

I think this guy and Luciani must use some of the same methodologies. If Kurt Suzuki has a better career than Hermida I'll............. lol

by GregJP on Jan 12, 2006 10:34 AM EST 0 recs

I know many consider me a wacko

And I don't expect many to believe me, but look with a fresh eye at the #'s over the last 2 years.

Upton is only a year younger.
Upton is playing in a serious hitter's park.

As I have said previously, I trust performance on the field more than I trust scouts.

Upton 305/398/499 78 E (all at AAA)
Pedroia 310/394/473 7 E (mix of A/AA/AAA)

Upton has an edge in power. I believe the difference in level just about washes out against the park difference and Pedroia's lack of prior pro experience. Slight edge to Upton until you consider that Pedroia's numbers are depressed by a wrist injury last summer.

Pedroia's numbers prior to the injury were comparable or better to the best of Upton's numbers to date.

Upton stagnated last year. Maybe the errors are weighing on him or he was just disappointed about spending the year back in Durham. But the reality was that his numbers, considering park were only so so. Add in that he may need to be moved from middle infield, and I would take Pedroia over him.

I think Pedroia will force his way into the major league lineup by mid-year. If he stagnates this year, I will concede that I have over-rated him. However, I expect to have converts to my line of thinking by this time next year.

by cdamon on Jan 12, 2006 10:40 AM EST 0 recs

park factors

player.....year.......league.....pfactor (runs).....ops (at bats)
Upton......2004.......Southern.....0.91.....0.878 (104)
Upton......2004.......Internat'l...1.11.....0.930 (264)
Upton......2005.......Internat'l...1.11.....0.882 (545)

Pedroia....2004.......Fla State....0.94.....0.940 (107)
Pedroia....2004.......Sally L......0.89.....1.034 (50)
Pedroia....2005.......Eastern......1.08.....0.917 (256)
Pedroia....2005.......Internat'l...1.05.....0.738 (204)

The Internat'l League is something of a hitters league, but competition there, if I recall correctly, correlates more closely than any other circuit (including Japan #s) to the majors. Durham, I don't think, is an extreme hitters park, either.

Here are Szymborski's complete calculations...

1.11 (runs), 1.03 (hits), 0.94 (doubles), 1.11 (homers), 1.00 (walks), 0.99 (ks).

And here's the now-famous link: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/34611/

by Azteca on Jan 12, 2006 11:00 AM EST up 0 recs

Durham

Has a short porch in right and a 'blue monster' in left, and is heaven for right-handed pull hitters and lefties who have power to opposite field. Guys like Matt Diaz, Toby Hall and Midre Cummings have all put up very good power numbers there. Its configuration is almost identical to that of Fenway (it's very old for a minor league park, built in 1938), except that there's a bit more foul territory, but it means that right center is cavernous and that anything hit to left that doesn't hit or go over the wall is almost an automatic out. That being said, while it can inflate some power numbers, it tends to depress batting averages a bit, especially for lefties.

by Brickhaus on Jan 12, 2006 1:17 PM EST up 0 recs

New Park was Built in 1988

Durham replaced the old DAP (Bull Durham fame) with Durham Bulls Athletic Park (DBAP) in 1988.

The facility can play to the strength of some, but watching Upton play there last season I didn't get the feeling that his stats were inflated.

3Rivers, United League of Moderate Gamers | Writer, Minor Details | Writer, Independent Thinking

by rockies73 on Jan 12, 2006 4:08 PM EST up 0 recs

Pawtucket is pitcher's park

according to BP. Factor of .97 and has been in that vicinity for several years. In 2004, BA had it as a .96. It sounds like the 1.05 is a fluke number or a mistake.

A park factor of 1.11 is extreme. Coors Field is 1.12.

I agree that the IL overall tracks to offensive numbers in the majors reasonably well. I consider it somewhat of a pitcher's league, as the pitchers need to be taken down a notch to match statistics.

by cdamon on Jan 12, 2006 1:39 PM EST up 0 recs

I've never seen such excitement over Jody Reed

by TINSTAAPP on Jan 12, 2006 11:04 AM EST up 0 recs

Some problems with this

Upton put up better #'s than Pedroia and he only played at AAA vs. Pedroia at 4 levels. Oh, and he's younger.
Last year at AAA, Upton went 303/392/490 with 18 HR, 44 SB (only 13 CS), and 78 BB. All at age 20. Pedroia went 324/409/508 at AA, then 255/356/382 at AAA, all at age 21. The difference in the Pedroia AA OPS and Upton's AAA OPS is batting average-driven. Upton's iso OBP & SLG are both better. How in the world are Upton's #'s so-so vs. Pedroia?? It makes no sense. I'll give Pedroia an injury pass at AAA for now, but he hasn't proven a thing above AA.
About defense: most people believe that he can play SS at a high level. His errors are supposedly ones that can be corrected. Even if he needs to move, he'd be a premium CF defensively by most accounts.

by jc3 on Jan 12, 2006 11:34 AM EST up 0 recs

Note to John

I was just thinking, we've gotten a rash of polls, mostly for fantasy teams and related fantasy stuff.

Perhaps it would be worthwhile to split the Diary section of the website into a General Discussions list and a Polls/Discussion list, or possibly even a Fantasy/Polls/Discussion list. These are obviously a little more seasonal as there will most likely be less fantasy talk come September than there is right now. It would also be a way to keep more general discssion diaries near the top of the list, and available for immediate reading.

Just a thought.

by lenred on Jan 12, 2006 10:52 AM EST 0 recs