Crystal Ball: Jason Kubel

by John Sickels on Sep 29, 2005 10:31 AM EDT in News

Assumptions:
1) the knee injury heals properly and does not pose a problem in the short or medium terms, in the sense of hampering his performance.. However, he doesn't age particularly well and is vulnerable to nagging problems. Not everyone has a super-long career.
2) he begins 2006 in Triple-A and needs most of the year to shake the rust off.
3) he is given a regular job in 2007.

I will be gone most of the day on family business, so rip away at this Crystal Ball. Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

Have a bit of fun and pick out injuries, contracts, and transactions.

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2006

The Twins need Kubel on the scene in 2006, not 2007, and they need him in a big way. The good news is that he will be playing ball in the offseason, and I hope he does well enough there to earn a trip to the bigs in 2006.

Based on his minor league numbers, I think he may have a bit more power than your crystal ball. He hit a good number of home runs and had a ton of doubles. I wouldn't be surprised if he topped 30 home runs for a few seasons during his prime (assuming Minnesota has finally wised up and fires Gardenhire and Ulger). If Gardi stays, then I fully expect him to hit the league, hit .250 w/ little or no OBP and lose a tremendous amount of power cause he keeps beating grounders into the turf or shortening his swing.

by diehardtwinsfan on Sep 29, 2005 1:52 PM EDT reply actions

Kubel

That projection reminds me a lot of Rusty Greer's career- short, but very productive in his few peak seasons.

by RCCook on Sep 29, 2005 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

greer

I had Greer in mind. Also Mike Greenwell.

by John Sickels on Sep 29, 2005 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

2010

Between Kubel's .295/29/100+ and Liriano's 19-7, that 2010 Twins team seems like it should be fun to watch.

(Not to put you in a 'hey look Bill James picked Jeff Bagwell to win the NL batting title as a rookie' pickle, but I just thought it was interesting.)

by dwintheiser on Sep 29, 2005 3:53 PM EDT reply actions

I think it is a stretch...

to predict no short or midterm effects of his knee injury. He completely shredded it (I believe the unhappy triad) and destabalized the joint.

by kenshin1 @ Minor League Ball on Sep 29, 2005 5:38 PM EDT reply actions

I think he will get more ABs in 2006

Scouting report from his rehab says that his swing's back and mechanically where it was. He's been crushing BP and the knee has held up to fairly intense training. I think he'll wind up DHing for the Twins (Jones will not be resigned) and Hunter, Stewart, and Ford will comprise the outfield.

When Stewart's contract expires after 2006, Kubel will take a corner OF spot, assuming his knee holds up. I can see your 2007 season happening next year if he has a good offseason and spring training. Then again, who knows how much rust there will be?

by limozeen on Sep 30, 2005 12:18 AM EDT reply actions