The Puzzle of Jesse Crain

by John Sickels on Sep 28, 2005 10:44 PM EDT in News Comment 27 comments

What do you guys think about Jesse Crain, his 2.35 ERA, and his 25/29 K/BB ratio in 77 innings?

His strikeout rate is horrid this year, and way off what he was doing in the minors. He's still been effective. But can he keep this up? I'd be interested in your thoughts, as I'm trying to figure this out myself.

Poll question in the comments thread.

Poll

Which of the Following Statements is True?

Jesse Crain's strikeout rate will rise next year and he will remain very effective

45 votes

Jesse Crain's strikeout rate will NOT rise next year but he will remain effective

13 votes

Jesse Crain's strikeout rate will rise next year but he will be less effective

39 votes

Jesse Crain's strikeout rate will NOT rise next year, and he will be less effective

21 votes

Jesse Crain will get hurt in 2006 and miss most of the year

2 votes

120 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 27 comments

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Comments

BP

I believe it was BP that listed Crain as comparable to Pedro Martinez. This was at the beginning of the season. So, I need to stay with Crain for atleast one more year.

Resentment is like drinking poison and waiting for the other person to die.

by Goodfella on Sep 28, 2005 11:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't get him at all.

The luckiest god damn pitcher ever, I say.

.210 BABIP, 29 BB, 25 K! His OBP against is higher than his SLG against! 11 wins!

He's an enigma wrapped inside a pinstriped uniform.

I don't get to see the guy on a regular basis, but either he's an amazingly special pitcher, or he's just the luckiest bastard to ever step on a mound.

by Klostrophobic on Sep 29, 2005 12:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

While a .210 BABIP is not sustainable, you have to be very careful when you evaluate the BABIP of relievers. Almost all of the good ones have BABIP that are significantly lower than their teammates.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Sep 29, 2005 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Steroids?

Anyone notice the velocity drop this year? Whenever I saw him (which was rare, I'll admit) he was at 91 and his slider was pretty meh, nowhere near as sharp or hard as reported.

by SenorGato88 on Sep 29, 2005 12:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wang

I don't have an answer, but I thought it was worth pointing out that you could have named it "The Puzzle of Jesse Crain and, to a lesser extent, Chien-Ming Wang," as both players have been effective in the majors with strikeout rates which are less than half of those they posted in the minors.

by amol on Sep 29, 2005 12:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what does crain throw?

Wang throws a power sinker in the 93-95 range and a pretty good changeup so he does rely on the GB more than K's.

Does crain have a similar repertoir?

by PooNani on Sep 29, 2005 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it's a new breed of pitcher

Pitchers are evolving and learning how to get guys out without the aid of the strikeout. Amazing.

Eh, maybe they're just lucky.

by Klostrophobic on Sep 29, 2005 12:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Andersen

Had Crain go from a straighter 4-seamer to a 2-seamer to get more movement on his fastball. That accounts for most of the loss of velocity.

by limozeen on Sep 29, 2005 12:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Min pitching coach overhauled him

Back in June a reader named 'Charon' shared an article from the StarTribune regarding Crain.

here is Charon's post:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2005/6/15/154256/424/7#7

Unfortunately the Star Tribune article he links to has been aged of that website.

Working from my memory that article stated that the pitching coach tinkered with either Crain's delivery or arm action and his pitch repetoire. The pitching coach felt he had plus velocity but that his ball was too straight. He overhauled Crain in hopes of getting more movement on his pitches.

He has been successful this year. Still, I find this overhaul questionable. Why fix what ain't broke. I think you wait and see that a pitcher can't succeed rather than change him to the point where you discard what was previously his best asset. Tinkering is fine but not at the expense of a pitcher's best asset. Other than Santana the Min org seems to go overboard with the whole idea of pitching to contact.

Even if Crain's movement has improved this BABIP is not sustainable. He needs to regain an outpitch or he will regress.

I'm not a Crain hater. The opposite, I was always a big believer. I'm just a little bitter with the direction the big league staff has steered him.

by natsfan2005 on Sep 29, 2005 12:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Defense Behind Crain

Crain has been very fortunate this year. He has been aided greatly by the defense behind him. His Defensive Efficiencty Ratio (DER) has been a very good .797, tops on the Twins by a very significant margin. His Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) is a mediocre 4.60, meaning had he had average defense play behind him, his ERA would have been 2.25 points higher. What is worse is that his Expected FIP (xFIP) is 5.60. xFIP attempts to normalize for HRs/Outfield Fly to predict future ERA. It is still in its infancy stages, so its "projections" have to be taken with a grain of salt.

That being said, it is not unusual for a young pitcher's strikouts to drop a bit when he comes to the majors. However, that is usually seen in starters, not relievers, and the drop is usually not even close to as steep as Crain's was this year. Unless Crain improves those K rates, he almost certainly won't continue this success. He shouldn't be written off; those K rates could improve next year.

J.P.

by bads85 on Sep 29, 2005 1:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Twins D

Hasn't been all that good. It's possible that Crain's stuff allows for lots of weak dribblers that don't get through the infield. This is a signature Crain out from this year. In other words, I think he can control, to a certain extent, his BABIP.

I think he also had a bit of dead arm this year, and should have better velocity next year. He's also been relying on his fastball a lot for a guy who's got wicked breaking stuff. A tired/sore arm would explain why he hasn't been using his curve and slider as much this year than in the minors, which I read was one of the factors that led to his low K numbers.

by limozeen on Sep 29, 2005 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Twins D

>>>Hasn't been all that good.<<<

It's been very good for him -- 12th best in the AL. His DER is .798 as compared to the Twins' overall DER of .703 (4th in the AL). Research shows that defense, like run support, is not "equal" for pitchers on the same team. Research also shows that it is not always consistent from year to year.

>>>It's possible that Crain's stuff allows for lots of weak dribblers that don't get through the infield. This is a signature Crain out from this year. In other words, I think he can control, to a certain extent, his BABIP.<<<

His Line Drive % significantly below League Average, so that helps him control his BAPIP. He also induces more infield flies than average. However, he induces less ground balls than League Average. Perhaps is is getting more than the average amount of dribblers though.

J.P.

by bads85 on Sep 29, 2005 2:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Crain

This is my first post, yet im a avid reader of this extraordinary site! I chose to finally add my own input on crain because he happens to be a long term project of mine and a personal fav. I have had him in my league for 2 yrs. (we have 15 minor keepers) His K numbers were right where you wanted a future closer to be at in the minors. However since his call-up last season he has not produced the kind of K numbers or for that matter K/BB numbers that us as owners would like. Last season he was 27 ip, 14k, 12bb, and 17 H. Since I own him I try to look for reasons why this has happened and hope for a return to his minors k numbers. My personal belief (and take it for what you want) is that since he is in mid-relief and not the closer role he is pitching differently. He possibly is pitching more for the out any way he can get it and not for the k like most closers. I know its a farsighted view because we all know ALL pitchers want K's. But its another possibility and hope for the future!

I know WAY too much for my own good. Ghead pick my brain!

by AZPhillyHybrid on Sep 29, 2005 3:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep, Crain was completely overhauled

natsfan2005 and limozeen mentioned the switch from a two-seamer to a four-seamer. In addition to that, Rick Anderson, the pitching coach of the Twins, is having Crain stand up straighter when he pitches. This, according to the now extinct Star Tribune article, is preventing Crain from getting the same push-off he had in the minors. This was all done in an effort to add more movement to Crain's fastball.

As a result, Crain's velocity is down and his slider isn't as sharp. Despite the overhaul, Crain really hasn't added all that much movement to his fastball, evidenced by his unremarkable 1.11 G/F ratio.

by Sulla on Sep 29, 2005 7:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

its hard

to maintain sucess with that BB/K rate but it can be done. Bob Lemon, Early Winn.

Is Crain going to develop that kind of stamina or be that good? I'd bet not (and so would just about anybody). My bet is he ends up being something like a Todd Worrell. Which wouldn't be a bad career at all.

Wouldn't surprise me a great deal to see the k's go up a little and he pitches 160-180, maybe peaking at 200 innings for couple seasons in his prime. Probably with the Twins in a couple years or so. Then one season at 5.0 ERA where it all catches up to him and fairly effective relief after that.

by roaddog on Sep 29, 2005 9:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You have to account for a couple of factors

Lemon and Wynn were starting pitchers.
They pitched in the 40s and 50s, when pitchers didn't strike out as many batters.

Even if you discount those two factors, Crain (2.92 K/9) still averaged fewer strike outs than Wynn (4.6 K/9) and Lemon (4 K/9).

by Sulla on Sep 29, 2005 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

crain

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't understand why Crain needed to be "overhauled" in the first place!

by John Sickels on Sep 29, 2005 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe...

...Rick Anderson was bored. After all he's got the AL's best pitcher - Santana, a cagey vet (after the 1st inning) - Radke, the perfect #3 starter - Silva, and a shut 'em closer - Nathan. All he should ever say to those four is, "Uh, you kicked a$$ today. Do that again next time. Glad to help out. Call me if you need me to pick up a 6-pack for you." Juan "No, Mom, I'm not on steriods" Rincon might need a pointer here and there, but he's generally on track too. There was no need for him to work on Mays, Lohse, or Romero because they're all gone after this year. So when was there for Anderson to do this season? Naturally, he needed to take a rock-star closer prospect and show the world how he could make him the next Joe Nathan. Oops. Too bad there aren't mulligan's in baseball. This winter Rick Anderson needs to dig out old minor league footage of Crain, get Jesse a comfy chair, and push play on the VCR. In the end, Crain's too good to give up on right now. I think that he's done so well with such poor secondary stats is reason enough to keep the faith.

by Jaerbesan on Sep 29, 2005 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've been saying this since Spring Training

when I first heard about changing Crain. It's mind boggling.

Same thing with Edwin Jackson and that moron Jim Colbert--changed him too and now look at the results.

by So Cal Bob on Sep 29, 2005 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crain + Kolb

2.35 ERA, and his 25/29 K/BB ratio in 77 innings?

It's a repeat of the Danny Kolb experience, and like Kolb it's going to get very ugly very quickly.

Lemon and Wynn did not have K rates greatly out of line with their eras (era in time not earned run average)In 1949 Lemon had a 138/137 K/bb in 280 ip.
That year the league as a whole had 4369/5627 k/bb ratio in 10938 ip. Lemon's k/bb ratio and k/9- both terrible by our standards were actually better than average.

by Johnny Ruin on Sep 29, 2005 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great point Johnny...

Thats (Kolb) a fair comparison but remember Crain has much better stuff.

Whats most puzzling and I dont think anyone has mentioned is that Crain had sick K/9 rates in the minors. I dont know what to make of him.

Julian de Lavalle

by jdelavalle on Sep 29, 2005 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crain vs. Kolb

Kolb started out with better stuff and better k/9 too.

I was also thinking of Nate Cornejo
you see a guy with (reputed) good stuff, good minor league k/9, maybe even good k/9 in his first mlb tour, and the n you see such a dramatic drop off?

I think injury.

by Johnny Ruin on Sep 30, 2005 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Balls in Play

Having watched nearly all of Jesse Crain's appearances this year, I think that there is some basis in the theory that Crain can impact his BIP. As an earlier poster mentioned, Crain really has created a lot of weak ground balls and pop outs this season. Using THT's stats, only Nathan and Romero have substantially lower line drive percentages among his teammates and only Rincon had a lower HR/FB percentage.

Next year, I think his strikeouts will jump considerably (probably double at least) and his performance will stay around its current level.

www.wyoung.net/twins

by WillYoung on Sep 29, 2005 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

curious

Hey, what resource are people using to find Line Drive Percentage (LD%)? Thanks.

by natsfan2005 on Sep 29, 2005 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

lind drive percentage

It's one of the many fantastic stats provided at The Hardball Times.

by WillYoung on Sep 29, 2005 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What if Anderson changed him...

because he needed it?

No one thinks there is a chance he may have been on steroids? It would suck, and I have no idea why I keep bringing it up, but that thought keeps coming into my head.

by SenorGato88 on Sep 29, 2005 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mechanics

All the stories that I have read about the change suggest that Anderson and the Twins changed him because they thought he would break down if they didn't.

I tend to think that Crain will increase is K ratio by a decent margin next year now that he is comfortable with the change and has all offseason and spring training to work on it, but he won't approach the numbers he put up in the minors. In the long run, this change should make him a more effective set-up man.

Minnesota Twins - 2006 World Series Champions

by drjim on Sep 29, 2005 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs