I know there is a lot of work you put into these and they are certainly not easy.  Thanks.

I think the "medium" career path is pretty reasonable and pretty likely.  And Mets fans will still be suicidal.  LOL!  :-D

I can't wait for "Giants Fan" to go bonkers about how Cain is disresepcted again as they have missed the point with the "possible" career paths.  ;-o

As A Rays fan, I'll be happy when he figures out how to get over the early-inning hiccups and gets over the on-again-off-again "Walk" bug he has.

I'm hoping that he gets out of his next start(Vs. Cleveland, unless they close him down) without any arm problems and with the Rays strikeout record.

John, I'd like to point out that it'll be impossible for Kaz to go 10-10 this year, seeing that he only has 1 start remaining.

He only makes it to KC if he sucks. By then our payroll might reach 100 mill, even though the yankees will have a 1 billion dollar payroll, so I guess we still suck....????

You've done a great job, here, John, so I'm not intending this as criticism, but I think I prefer the original format of one prediction.

You must be fairly high on Kazmir, because even the medium projection is fairly positive.  That three year stretch from 2011 to 2013 would have to make him one of the top pitchers in the league.

If there's one thing that puzzles me, it's that in 2013 of your best case scenario, Kazmir wins 25 games with a 2.50 ERA, but in the medium case scenario, he wins 15 games with a 3.09 ERA.  Would a half-run difference really cost him 10 wins?  Maybe it's nitpicky, but I would think that with the numbers you gave, unless the Yankees return to early-90's form, Kazmir would have a 20-win season one of his years in the Bronx.  Maybe two.

Overall, great work, though.  As a Ranger fan(and a Houston-native who fell in love with Kazmir back when he was in high school), I will forever despise the Mets for supposedly nixing the rumored Soriano for Reyes/Kazmir deal.  I won't even bring up the trade that eventually came later.  It's not a good subject for me.

except he's not going to leave after his 24 win season, and leading the Rays' to their third WS in 4 years.  The first two being back to back in 08,09.  He'll sign a long term deal at a slight, first team discount!

I find it interesting that in none of the three scenarios is Kazmir even tried out as a closer.  I've certainly heard discussion from time to time about that being a possible outcome if he is unable to put it all together as a starter.

i think kazmir is greatly overlooked because of where he plays. but i think kazmir is probably the best young pitcher in baseball including felix.  what kazmir has done to me is borderline mind boggling. he has pitched all year for lou pinella first of all, and he accomplished that while he was 21. What pitcher hasnt lou run into the ground while in tampa.  yet kazmir survived the whole yr and excelled. he also pitched in the AL east where most of his starts came against good offenses like NY, BOS, TOR and BALT.  along the way he has posted a sub 4 era and a great strike out rate.  While caos was running rampant around kazmir he never let it affect his performance, he just went out and pitched well. pretty remarkable for anyone let alone a 21 yr old kid.  not to mention he has some of the most electric stuff in all of baseball.

He'd only be 28. Seems pretty young for a Yankee starter :-)