Crystal Ball: Scott Kazmir

great job John

I know there is a lot of work you put into these and they are certainly not easy. Thanks.

I think the "medium" career path is pretty reasonable and pretty likely. And Mets fans will still be suicidal. LOL! :-D

I can't wait for "Giants Fan" to go bonkers about how Cain is disresepcted again as they have missed the point with the "possible" career paths. ;-o

by So Cal Bob on Sep 22, 2005 6:17 PM EDT reply actions

job

They are fun to do, but they are also very time-consuming.

by John Sickels on Sep 22, 2005 6:41 PM EDT reply actions

It'll be the Best or Medium-Case Scenario

As A Rays fan, I'll be happy when he figures out how to get over the early-inning hiccups and gets over the on-again-off-again "Walk" bug he has.

I'm hoping that he gets out of his next start(Vs. Cleveland, unless they close him down) without any arm problems and with the Rays strikeout record.

John, I'd like to point out that it'll be impossible for Kaz to go 10-10 this year, seeing that he only has 1 start remaining.

by The Rocc on Sep 22, 2005 6:47 PM EDT reply actions

oops.

I thought he had two starts left. My bad.

Easy enough to fix.

by John Sickels on Sep 22, 2005 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

pain

Actually it would be a big pain to fix it after all. The stats are done in .gif files, and I'd have to go through and correct each file and reload it on the website. Pain in the rear.

by John Sickels on Sep 22, 2005 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions

mets fans won't cry too hard

i believe it doesn't matter what case it is, the Mets know they most likely made a mistake. in 2012, the Metswill probably give far more to him than he probably deserves to make up for thier mistake.

#269

by mrmetaa on Sep 22, 2005 6:55 PM EDT reply actions

I agree

if he shows any level of talent, the Mets will throw a TON of money to undo this mistake. Once the Met Channel launches, the Mets are going to start doing things "yankee-style".

Will we Met fans respect ourselves in the morning?

Eric Hillman, where art thou?

by akk99 on Sep 22, 2005 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Ouch.....

He only makes it to KC if he sucks. By then our payroll might reach 100 mill, even though the yankees will have a 1 billion dollar payroll, so I guess we still suck....????

by royalslfr on Sep 22, 2005 7:24 PM EDT reply actions

Win Totals

You've done a great job, here, John, so I'm not intending this as criticism, but I think I prefer the original format of one prediction.

You must be fairly high on Kazmir, because even the medium projection is fairly positive. That three year stretch from 2011 to 2013 would have to make him one of the top pitchers in the league.

If there's one thing that puzzles me, it's that in 2013 of your best case scenario, Kazmir wins 25 games with a 2.50 ERA, but in the medium case scenario, he wins 15 games with a 3.09 ERA. Would a half-run difference really cost him 10 wins? Maybe it's nitpicky, but I would think that with the numbers you gave, unless the Yankees return to early-90's form, Kazmir would have a 20-win season one of his years in the Bronx. Maybe two.

Overall, great work, though. As a Ranger fan(and a Houston-native who fell in love with Kazmir back when he was in high school), I will forever despise the Mets for supposedly nixing the rumored Soriano for Reyes/Kazmir deal. I won't even bring up the trade that eventually came later. It's not a good subject for me.

by Ian Miller on Sep 22, 2005 9:33 PM EDT reply actions

wins

Actually, the win total was deliberate....he had a TON of run support in the good year...team context makes a difference. :)

by John Sickels on Sep 22, 2005 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

First senerio

except he's not going to leave after his 24 win season, and leading the Rays' to their third WS in 4 years. The first two being back to back in 08,09. He'll sign a long term deal at a slight, first team discount!

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Sep 22, 2005 10:37 PM EDT reply actions

I was wrong

The Rays' are trying to make sure he follows the third path. They are moving McClung back so Kaz can get two more starts in. I guess they want to make sure their 21 year old stud gets to 200 innings this year, after his previous career high was 134. He's going to throw almost 70 more innings this year than he did last year. That's just irresponsible. They should be shutting him down. If anything, they should be shutting him down, not trying to get him extra innings.

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Sep 22, 2005 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't go that far, Tyler

If he doesn't pitch well in his next start, I think the Rays will shut him down.

I think that he's a smart enough kid where he knows how much he has in his arm and will tell Lou and the trainers if he feels any discomfort, only old vets lie to their managers on whether they are tired or not. 21 yr olds aren't dumb when they are still playing for the contract that they signed out of HS.

by The Rocc on Sep 23, 2005 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Kazmir in the bullpen

I find it interesting that in none of the three scenarios is Kazmir even tried out as a closer. I've certainly heard discussion from time to time about that being a possible outcome if he is unable to put it all together as a starter.

by BERSMR on Sep 22, 2005 11:51 PM EDT reply actions

Well

I personally think he's answered the can he be a starter long term question. The only thing I see pushing him to the pen would be injuries. I know his walks are still high, but he's doing well in spite of that, so I see no reason that his numbers will be worse.

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Sep 23, 2005 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions

overlooked

i think kazmir is greatly overlooked because of where he plays. but i think kazmir is probably the best young pitcher in baseball including felix. what kazmir has done to me is borderline mind boggling. he has pitched all year for lou pinella first of all, and he accomplished that while he was 21. What pitcher hasnt lou run into the ground while in tampa. yet kazmir survived the whole yr and excelled. he also pitched in the AL east where most of his starts came against good offenses like NY, BOS, TOR and BALT. along the way he has posted a sub 4 era and a great strike out rate. While caos was running rampant around kazmir he never let it affect his performance, he just went out and pitched well. pretty remarkable for anyone let alone a 21 yr old kid. not to mention he has some of the most electric stuff in all of baseball.

by taggartd on Sep 23, 2005 1:30 AM EDT reply actions

re: great strike out rate...

Just wanted to throw this out there as its overlooked by most. Kazmir's mediocre/bad (albiet improving) WHIP helps boost his strikeout rate. Why? Because allows more baserunners per inning he faces more batters. The more batters you face the more strikeout opportunities you have. A more accurate measure (i.e. apples to apples) of strikeout rate is K/36bf.

by natsfan2005 @ Minor League Ball on Sep 23, 2005 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Great job, but the Yanks in '12?

He'd only be 28. Seems pretty young for a Yankee starter :-)

3Rivers, United League of Moderate Gamers | Writer, Minor Details | Writer, Independent Thinking

by rockies73 on Sep 23, 2005 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

fav

I love this feature and the career paths adds more intrigue and debate.

I personally think the middle ground one looks acceptable, but then again, it is the middle ground.

What, no Cubs at the tail end of his career? I also notice the Yankees get their fair share of these guys when free agency comes around. Whatever happened to loyalty?!?!?

by ScottAZ on Sep 23, 2005 3:01 PM EDT reply actions