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You're the GM! Giants Edition


You're the GM! Giants Edition

Not a great year in San Francisco. You're only five games out, which seems respectable until you remember that the first place team is ONE game over .500. Having your best player on the DL most of the season didn't help of course, but even so you shouldn't be too happy about the way things have gone.

Planning for '06, let's take a look at your position players. Bonds is Bonds, still the best hitter in baseball, assuming he's healthy, but he may retire after next year. Alou can still hit, but is an age and health risk. Durham is solid and should remain so. Vizquel is fading offensively. Corner players Feliz, Snow, Niekro, and Alfonzo all have significant weaknesses. Randy Winn is good. What are your plans to boost the hitting attack?

On the pitching side, you have a very good starter in Noah Lowry. Jason Schmidt can be overpowering but is erratic. Brett Tomko is, well, Brett Tomko, brilliant at times but certainly not someone you can count on for consistent above-average performance. Kirk Rueter? Blech. Do you trust Hennessey and Correia as full-time starters? Is Matt Cain ready to start next year?

The bullpen is as problematic as the rotation. Hawkins and Benitez are hardly stalwarts of consistency. Eyre and Munter did good work in middle relief. Can they handle larger roles?  

Basically, this team has some talent, but is extremely dependent on Barry Bonds, and much of the supporting cast is aging and/or inconsistent. How competitive do you think you will be in '06? Who is on the trade block? What are you looking for in terms of free agents? And what are you going to do with the farm system?

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Bonds
I think you play for next year since it's the last year you have Bonds.  Upgrade the bullpen, look to the minors for some bench strength, and trade the prospects in the low minors for something that can help in 2006.  Plan for 2007 to be pretty bad.

by cunningt on Sep 22, 2005 10:51 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

suggestion for future your the gm!s
maybe put out the teams in the order they are eliminated from the playoffs?  get a sense of what the teams' weakness are from playoff play, and build from there

by forage on Sep 22, 2005 11:00 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Options Aren't Pretty
Go hard after Washburn and Burnett.  Off Schmidt to Florida for Carlos Delgado (and nose around to see if they'll toss in a prospect). If not throw money at Paul Konerko. Let Snow go and RIP. Pick up Winn's option but don't go overboard on a long-term extension. Simply cut Edgardo Alfonzo if you can't pay anyone else to take him.  Put Matt Cain in rotation. Resign Tomko if you can get him cheaply for a year or 2 as your #5 (otherwise try to plug in Hennessy or someone like Matt Kinney).  Sign or trade for one good OF bat who could poach all the non-starts coming from Bonds and Alou (a Kevin Mench type of player -- perhaps even the return of Jose Cruz, Jr. if very little money is involved).  Do NOT let Scott Eyre depart as FA.

Hire someone to pour over the rulebooks to see if there's anyway to annul the AJ trade (or if the Twins feel they got too much out of it and just want to give back Francisco Liriano back as a goodwill gesture, for, say, Kevin Frandsen, Todd Linden, Dan Ortmeier and Merkin Valdez).

Pray the Armando Benitez will luck into another 2004. Pray in general. Enjoy watching the money roll in as SRO crowds cheer on Barry's pursuit of Hank.

by Roger on Sep 22, 2005 11:21 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There are two courses of action
A) Sign free agents for next year (Brian Giles) and try to make one last run with Barry

B) Go the way of the indians circa 2002 and blow it up.

The problem with option B is the Giants don't have the prospects at high enough levels that could be deemed ready by 2007 or 2008.

Also, the veterans we have aren't young like Cleveland's were in 2002 so getting a top prospect is unlikely.

No matter what direction we go in I'd like to see the following things done this offseason;

  1. Bring back Tomko at a similar contract he had this year
  2. Make Hennessey your 5th starter and trade Kevin Correia for a very healthy mule.
  3. Decrease the number of Bats for Pedro "Mr .300" Feliz, especially those in which he hits in front of Bonds
  4. Pray Durham stays healthy and trade him at the deadline if 2006 becomes a repeat of 2005
  5. Make a decision with Lance Niekro, either give him 500 at bats and see if he can play or trade him for a relief pitcher.  With all the depth we have at first base in the system (Ishikawa & EME) option #2 seems likely.  JT's not a great hitting option, but if his price tag stays low (around 2 mil) I don't think he's hurting the team that much.
  6. Let Cain start the season in the rotation.  He deserves it, let's avoid a Delmon Young type problem here.

by sfjg85 on Sep 22, 2005 12:39 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2 Problems
They're locked into players/contracts at so many positions that the only place they could go after a FA is 1b.  That eliminates people like Giles, and really pretty much anyboyd but Konerko, and makes cutting ties with Snow imperative.

by Roger on Sep 22, 2005 1:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Options
If they don't pick up Winn's option then they can get giles.  Durham also has an option but I'd rather get rid of Alfonzo

by sfjg85 on Sep 22, 2005 6:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The sunk-cost fallacy is at work here
It's unrealistic to expect Sabean to let Winn go just like that, because he gave up too much to feel like he got only a few months out of him, and because Winn's done well since joining the team. If Winn has his average season next year, you would be correct in saying that he's not worth the money he'll be given, and I agree that Winn should be let go if we're playing GM from this point on, but he's the CF. Ideally, the Dodgers don't offer arbitration to Milton Bradley, the Giants decline Winn's option, and then sign Bradley to play CF and bat third so Durham can lead off.

by deadteddy8 on Sep 22, 2005 7:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sabean made it clear...
That Winn was not a rental type player.  Winn was a player for 2006 as well as this year.

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 7:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also
he has a player option at 3 or 3.5. I wouldn't be suprised to see him exercise it if the Giants didn't.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 7:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

New Direction
I would fire myself in hopes of the Gigantes hiring a new GM that would draft in the first round, and attempt to grow some hitters in the system.

by dvail on Sep 22, 2005 1:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree....
I thoroughly agree with this statement though with the Giants and from what I have heard, Sabean doesnt really run the draft it is guys like Dick Tidrow and Jack Hiatt that need to be fired.  And please stop giving away 1st round picks in order to sign guys like Michael Tucker!!
Sabean, stop giving away our 1st round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark on Sep 24, 2005 1:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You have to go for it
Barry only comes around once, and they've been going for it since 1994 with him here.  2006 is the last year for Barry, Sabean, and the Barry show.

They gain $2.5M from contracts leaving less raises owed, including picking up Schmidt's option and letting Hawkins go.

They will need to spend more money to win, and the first thing Sabean has to do is show up in Peter McGowan's office and say, "Look.  You wouldn't let me sign Vladi and it cost us a world championship.  You've got to loosen up the purse strings in advance of taking Barry's $18M salary off the books next year."

Assuming he says yes, the first order of priority is a #2 starter.  AJ Burnett or Kevin Millwood would be great.  Then they'd have a rotation of:

Schmidt
New Guy
Lowry
Cain
Hennessey, Correia, Kinney

The dream deal would send Alfonzo to the Mets for Trachsel, who has a $2.5M option.  The Mets seem to like Fonz, but such a deal seems unlikely.

Then you need to shore up the bullpen.  You're stuck with Benitez.  You should resign Eyre, who will take a home town discount to stay.  You can live with Taschner as a second lefty.  You can probably live with Tyler Walker and maybe Scott Munter, but you need to pick up a good mule in the pen.

You need to pick up a solid fourth outfielder to play behind Bonds, Winn and Alou.  This will be a 400 AB guy, because both Bonds and Alou will miss a significant number of games.

Then you need to pick up a real man to play first.  Niekro is not going to take you to the promised land.  You can live with Feliz batting sixth or seventh and playing third.  Vizquel and Durham are set, and, if you can't unload Fonzi, then he can be an expensive backup at second and third.  

The first baseman is the key acquisition.  If you can get Delgado, he would be ideal.  Konerko is probably second choice.  This leaves you with a pretty strong lineup:

Winn
Durham
1st Baseman
Bonds
Alou
Feliz
Matheny
Vizquel

25 Man roster:

Pitchers
Schmidt
New signee
Lowry
Cain
Hennessey or Correia or Kinney
Benitez
Eyre
Taschner
Munter
Walker
New righthanded relief horse

Hitters
Bonds
Alou
Winn
New 400 AB outfielder
New fifth outfielder signee @MLB minimum
New first baseman
Durham
Alfonzo
Vizquel
Feliz
Matheny
New backup catcher @MLB minimum
Niekro

by 3Com Park on Sep 22, 2005 1:27 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Alou has already expressed that...
Next season he is going to return Durham to the 1 hole and slide Winn into a more power hitter's role.  He's been hitting well since he came over, so I like the deal of that.

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 1:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Winn a power hitter?
He's 31 and until this season, he never hit more than 14 HR in one season.  If I was a Giants fan, I would not be happy with Winn being treated as a power hitter.  This season is more of an abberration than anything else.  Even so, he only has 17 HR this season.  That does not scream power hitter to me.  Is Joe Randa a power hitter too?

by count sutton on Sep 22, 2005 1:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well
he isn't a leadoff hitter either. Ideally, he is a backup.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 1:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, not really a huge power hitter...
But the more people in front of Barry we can get to get on base (Durham, Vizquel, Winn) the better.

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 4:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually I thought
he said exactly the opposite, that he'd thought about returning Durham to No. 1 but wouldn't because Winn's doing so well there.  Given Ray's inability to run much anymore, it makes sense to put him int he 3 spot in front of Bonds (the happiest little spot in the whole league).

I'd say you're very optomistic predicting 17 wins for Schmidt. That's in the ballpark of his career best, and he just doesn't seem to be getting better at this point.  

They have to commit themselves to cutting some of the dead wood though.  No matter how much it hurts they have to pitch Fonzie (they might have been able to afford Vladdy if they hadn't pitched 8mil a year overboard on this stiff) and they need to trade Feliz for whatever value he has and that's maybe a decent bullpen arm. And they have to resist the urge to resign Snow.  You can't bring in valuable bats if you refuse to get rid of these space eaters on the roster.

by Roger on Sep 22, 2005 2:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah 17 is very optomisitc...
But I'm saying what I hope he could perform at his best.  17 is very doable, especially if we get a lot of runs next year.

I highly doubt Snow is going to be leaving.  Even if he stays, he probably won't be a starter, but he'll be a defensive input.  I don't know how many times I've seen Niekro botch a ball that Snow would have just gobbled up.

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 4:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Winn's power hitting and what Alou said...
Alou has said that he might bat Durham 1st and Winn 3rd in 2006; he didn't do that this year because he didn't want to mess with success for Winn (see recent article on Winn on sfgate.com's Giants section:  http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/09/20/SPGSSEQNLM1.DTL).

The only reason they are thinking of him in the power position is his unusual spurt of power once traded to the Giants.  He has averaged 20 AB/HR at SBC, 17 AB/HR overall, since joining the Giants.  

Reasons why he's been hitting better and for more power?  Maybe being able to go to his home in nearby Danville and seeing his wife and getting home cooking has really relaxed him and released his potential.  Perhaps newness in the league but I would have to assume that this would quickly be figured out.  I thought this when he started out hot but then cooled off.  Then he suddenly got even hotter.

Sabean thought that Winn was more suited for the NL-style of pitching (see article).  Winn himself said that he hasn't noticed more fastballs in the NL but that pitchers are more aggressive due to their need to keep their pitch count low, in order to stay in the game.  Thus, even if they throw an offspeed pitch early in the count, it is usually a strike.  And being an aggressive hitter himself, that has played into his way of hitting.

It also helped, him moving away from SAFECO, as he had a career 48 AB/HR there, but an OK .284/.364/.395/.759 hitting line despite the lack of homers, I guess he made up for it with doubles and triples that didn't become homers.

Not as scientific but certainly fanatical :^) I went to the Giants website and pulled up Winn's hit chart, which shows the location of each of the balls he hit and the result, whether hit or out, at each ballpark.  Each field looked like they are scaled the same so I pulled up his hit charts for SBC, SAFECO and Tropicana, his three home parks (for some reason they don't allow an option to see all the hits where they landed with a fenceless field), printed them out, and eyeballed them aligning the diamonds together.  

From that admittedly unrobust analysis, I would say that the move from Tropicana and Safeco to SBC would roughly double Winn's homer totals at home.  

For Safeco, he had 14 homers there, and just taking all hits and flyouts that are clearly beyond SBC's fence, I counted 15 additional homers plus about another half dozen or so borderline ones that landed approximately where the fence is; some of them were outs at Safeco.  In addition, for those who think perhaps the tall wall of RF at SBC would bat back some, most of the additional homers would have occurred along the left field wall and his RF homers were deep, he either hit it hard or he didn't.  Based on this, he moves from 48 AB/HR to 23 AB/HR at SBC, or about 26 homers in 600 ABs.

For Tropicana, he had 15 homers there and I counted 10 additional homers, again along the left field fence, plus some half dozen borderline ones.  That moves him from 44 AB/HR to 26 AB/HR, or about 23 homers in 600 ABs.

Both of these are close to the rate he has been hitting them at SBC so far, which is 20 AB/HR currently.  

A hitter who can hit about 25 homers per year would be OK as a 3rd place hitter, especially since Winn hits LHP and RHP pretty much equally well, OPS .777 vs. .761, respectively.  Looking at the change to his SLG with the additional power, it would add about 40-60 points, pushing his home SLG from .416 to about .450-.475, which is pretty good power.  And the outs converted to hits would push his batting average and OBP up about 10-15 points, to about .300 and .360, respectively.  At minimum, he would be a better hitter there than Feliz or Alfonzo or Snow.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Sep 22, 2005 5:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would rather bat
Durham first, Winn second, and Bonds third.  But Bonds wants to bat fourth so that won't happen.  I'd like to go

Durham
Winn
New 1B/Alou
Bonds
New 1B/Alou
Feliz
Matheny
Vizquel

It's that whole getting the new 1B thing that's a bit tricky.

by Nick Schulte on Sep 22, 2005 6:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, better but
...the Giants have been disappointing me in terms of getting impact players like the 1B we all want, so I'm just playing with the players we have on our roster.

And you know Felipe is going to bat Moises behind Bonds.

If it helps, Winn for his career has hit for a higher batting average (.278 bases empty/.296 runners on/.286 RISP) which is what you would want from a third place hitter (well, plus good power).  At this projected homer rate, he could be the third best HR hitter on the Giants, better than Feliz, as the roster exists right now, and Bonds is slotted for 4th and Alou for 5th.

That would be great behind Durham because Durham gets on base so much.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Sep 22, 2005 7:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not many things to do next year....
Our current options....

C:  Matheny
1B: Snow, Niekro, Feliz
2B: Durham
SS: Vizquel
3B: Alfonzo, Feliz
OF: Bonds, Winn, Alou, Linden, Ellison, Ortmeier

Really our depth is at 1B, so I expect one of the three to be gone by next season, most liely either Feliz or Niekro.  Throw in a prospect and get maybe a starter or another power hitter.  Next year's healthy lineup....

Durham
Vizquel
Winn
Bonds
Alou
Snow/Niekro/Feliz
Alfonzo/Feliz
Matheny

Now our pitching rotation if it performs how it could....I could see something like this...

Schmidt: 17 wins
Lowry: 13 wins
Free Agent: 13 winns
Tomko/Cain/Hennessey/Correia/Others: 10 wins a piece for the 2.

Bullpen's not that bad of an area I think if Alou didn't already blow out the arms of Benitez (hasn't had anything but a fastball the past 2 appearances and still no command), Eyre (He's been used in over 80 games), and Munter (he's out for the season with a "tender elbow"), we might be alright.  Throw in Hawkins (who really has been good as a Giant), Accardo (took some tough losses against the Dodgers but bounced back), and Agent Jack Taschner (Our 2nd lefty), we'd have a nice bullpen.

Am I a Giants fan?  Can't tell can you?

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 1:34 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What the Giants should do is...
Trade Bonds to the Angels for some of their highly touted prospects. Kendrick, Wood, Weaver.

But since thats not going to happen they need to get someone to help next year and in the future. And that person is ADAM DUNN. Dunn would hit 50 HR's a year at SBC easy and would be someone to build around and keep the fans coming, plus finally give Bonds some real protection next season.

Trade Jason Schmidt, they should have done it before the trade deadline. And Alfonzo, his numbers have been consistent but not for the 7.5 Million they have paid him every year. He is a bust. Between Schmidt, Benetiz, Hawkins and Alfonzo the Giants are WASTING $25 Mil.

Use that money to sign a real closer. Is Billy Wagner still available? Shore up the Bullpen with solid guys . Then Find a good, inexpensive starter to go with the good young pitching prospects you havent traded away yet. Barry Zito??

I guess it goes without saying...The Giants are screwed, they have spent tons of money on old players, traded a ton of propspects for nothing, and will be in the same position next year and even worse in 2007.

The Indians are a perfect example, or the A's, of how to rebuild quick. Get young fast and restock your farm system with quality prospects and pitching. Luckily, the Giants have held on to a few of their pitching prospects. Personally I think the Giants need a new GM, its time for a change all around.... I would hate to be a Giants fan right now.

by fatfrank on Sep 22, 2005 1:53 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Trade Jason Schmidt
to sign a closer?  Ummm no....  

by kenshin1 on Sep 22, 2005 2:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, your right
Cause the Bullpen, and more specifically THE CLOSER hasnt really been a problem for the Giants.

by fatfrank on Sep 22, 2005 3:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The starting pitching has been much more
of a problem.

Starting ERA: 4.54, 11th in the NL

Bullpen ERA: 4.05, 8th in the NL

And this includes 110.2 IP of 6.26 ERA ball from Puffer, Levine, Brower, Christiansen, and Herges.  Who are now all gone.

The seven guys who could probably be back next year: Benitez, Hawkins, Eyre, Walker, Taschner, Accardo, and Munter have combined for 264.2 IP of 3.54 ERA as Giants this year.

by Nick Schulte on Sep 22, 2005 3:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

First off....
Bonds wouldn't accept a trade.  He wants to finish out his days in San Francisco.  And as a 10 yr 5 yr player, he can reject all trades.  So that's not going to happen.

Trade Schmidt?  Who are we going to get for him, another starter?  Because that's the only way I'd trade him.  We need another starter first.

Benitez will be a "real closer" I believe next year.  This year he came back from a 6 month injury in just a few months, and was throwing with his leg on a walker in a few days after his surgery.  After he came back he wasn't supposed to be thrown into the closer role.  But after Alou overworked Walker and he went down with arm problems, there weren't many options to turn to.  And Benitez has done a terrific job I believe.

But I agree with you on one point...we need a new GM.

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 4:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RE
Go for it while you have Bonds:
To free up 06 money, I would attempt to get Alfonzo, Durham, and Bonds to defer some money [with interest] to 07 and 08. I assume they won't. As such, it looks like the Giants have about 12 million or so to spend.

1.) Left handed bats - preferably a 1B,C, and backup ss/2b.
2.) A LHRP - Eyre is not worth the money he will get from New York. Jack Taschner has performed well, and seems to have the stuff to be more thatn a LOOGY. Eyre was a LOOGY, until this year and I am rather skeptical that it is real improvement. Other than that, the bullpen should be solid. It will be a plus if the Giants yougn bullpen arms continue to develop.
3.) A Solid #2 type starting pitcher to back Schmidt
4.) An offseason of rest and rehab for Schmidt, hoping he control returns.
5.) Continued gains by Cain and Lowry.

Bonds, Schmidt, Durham, Correia, Benitez, Alou, and Munter all have serious health concerns. Alou, Bonds, and Durham have been great when healthy, but clearly need quality backups and consistent rest. Benetiz and Schmidt have serious stuff problems at the moment, but look to benefit from an offseason.  Correia has a shoulder problem [almost certainly the cause of his lousy last two starts] and Munter an elbow problem - both could be use/fatigue related.

Absent something strange happening, the Giants probably don't have the cash to add a Konerko, Burnett, Washburn, Millwood, Wagner, Damon, or Delgado.

Alfonzo should be gone, along with Snow. They provide little help as backups, and hurt you as starters. I have a hard time believing anyone would take Alfonzo w/out the Giants picking up the tab. Snow has slightly more use, in that he can platoon w/ Niekro.

I would target Estrada and Laroche from the Braves to bolster the hitting. Wilkerson is also a good target.

Dunn's name gets floated around, but I suspect the only way the Giants could get him is by accepting Milton as well.

I would try and get creative - sign a Japanese pitcher if a good one is available.

Feliz is ok as a starting third baseman, but he would make a great utility guy if the found a LH 3B and 1B.

Hank Blalock - what would it take to get him? Probably more than the Giants would be willing to give, but Blalock definitely struggled this year and the Rangers need pitching and OF.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 1:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dunn
Again, where would they play him? Can you get Dunn and say, by the way, you'll only be starting 3 times a week.  Alou's not going to sit Alou down, so it's just injuries and offdays that Dunn gets in there, and then he's not backing Bonds up, he's replacing him.

I agree with fat frank, it's not a great time to be a Giants fan (with the exception of watching one of the greatest hitters to ever live) because they've locked themselves into a lot of players and don't have the flexibility they need.  I also agree that trading Schmidt would be a masterstroke.  13 wins and 4 ERA isn't worth $10 mil, and it's much more in line with his career than 2003 and 2004 were.  This is their one chance to turn him into gold because he FA after this.

Any hopes of getting payroll relief from Fonzie are misplaced.  He's worth nothing. People talk about the Mets taking him, but they can't play him at 3rd and he's no longer capable of playing 2nd every day. If they get rid of him they'll have to pay the tab themselves and/or pick up someone else's bad contract.

by Roger on Sep 22, 2005 2:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dunn
If they get him [which I HIGHLY doubt they will], he would play first as he has done frequently for the Reds. He is no Snow around the bag, but won't kill you.

It is also possible that if F.Alou is fired, Moises gets traded. [both unlikely, IMO]

Alfonzo for Matsui would be a salary wash, and gives the Giants a backup SS/2b. Maybe he plays better in SF, maybe Edgordo can play 2nd again. I doubt either will happen, but both players are useless to their current teams.

13 wins and a 4.30 ERA gets you a lot on the free agent market. What team would trade for him and give up the pitching you would need in return? The best case scenario is prospects who are unlikely to help in 2006.  Rebuilding? Sure, trade him at the deadline to a team willing to pay in prospects.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 2:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Felipe fired?
PLEASE SAY IT WILL BE TRUE!

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 4:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bonds to 1B
Given his age and recent leg problems, shouldn't the Giants consider moving Bonds to 1B?

by Arthur on Sep 22, 2005 2:11 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

1b
Would probably hurt his knees more - lots of starting and stopping.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 2:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bonds doesn't have the quickness.
He may have good reactions in the field, but on a hot line drive down the line, do you see him diving for a ball?  Or stretching out trying to get a throw?  I see him tearing a groin and being out for the whole season if he tries 1B.

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 4:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Giants are not that far off, just need tweaks
The Giants have at least $82M allocated already based on current contracts and expected young players but Magowan said that $85M is the budget target:  so you can forget about signing any big free agent unless they have a change of heart and do what they said they might do, which is increase the budget, or somehow unload Alfonzo and/or Durham for salary relief.

I think their main needs are another starter and a power hitting 1B.  Schmidt, Lowry, and Cain make a good three-some; trading any of them would be suicide for 2006 unless you get a better pitcher back.  Lowry has been as erratic if not more so than Schmidt.  Cain has proven that he is ready for the spotlight, Lowry got a starting spot at the start of 2005 with less performance highlights in the previous season.  

About the last two rotation spots, Hennessey/Correia will battle for the 5th spot, leaving a free agent for the 4 spot in the rotation; I expect Hennessey to get the spot, he has been Dr. Hennessey and Mr. Hyde both this season and last, so he has to be given the shot in case he can harness it consistently because when he is good, he has been dominating.  Matt Kinney will probably get a shot as well but unless he's lights out in spring training, I would rather go with Hennessey and give him more experience in the majors.

Positionally, we have players signed (or with options that will be picked up) for every position except 1B.  We have enough minor leaguers to take backup positions on the bench plus Feliz as uber-utility guy.

Random comments on things said above:

I don't see the Giants cutting Alfonzo and his $8M contract but he could be traded for some other team's contract mistake.  

Durham has been great... when not injured and he's been injured too much, resulting in a poorer offense when his replacement is in.  I can see the Giants trading him for salary relief only, the either move Alfonzo to 2B (if he isn't traded) or perhaps let Frandsen get a chance there.

Vizquel's late season fade has hurt their offense since he has batted 2nd all season.  But he was outstanding in the first half, so it must be age or the cold SF weather (or both) getting to him late in the season.  Or it could be the depressing circumstances that the team has been in until lately (when it turned to just being glum :^).

And while I want a new 1B, I want to say that Snow's overall power has been severely hurt by SBC so if we get a lefthanded power hitter, he could be neutralized too.  His road HR rate has been consistently in the 25-30 AB/HR rate during his years at PBP/SBC until this season, with one blip during one bad season, in 2002.  Not too bad, about 20-25 HR season at that rate.  For his career though, his SBC HR rate is 50.5 AB/HR, cutting his power in half.  

Bonds and Alou are old; luckily Winn is young enough and fast enough to cover a little for them in CF.  Also, Linden and Ellison should make good backups for them plus Feliz will usually take over LF when Bonds get a rest.

Tomko is looking for a payday like Kent Benson, $7M/year, he essentially said so in the past offseason, refering to those contracts and saying that he knows he is being underpaid in 2005.  I expect him to be like Aurilia, asking for big money and settling for scraps when no one bites.  

Eyre has said that he wants to return (though David Bell said the same as well) and, unlike other relievers, have talked very positively about his experiences with Alou.  I expect him to sign before he officially becomes a free agent, both sides have indicated they wanted the other.  He has not been used as a middle reliever or LOOGY as much this season, he has been one of the main set-up relievers, with Hawkins, since the early parts of the season, once Brower and Herges flopped and were dropped.

Bonds has said that he wants to return for 2007 and pursue Aaron.  I expect the Giants to restructure his contract via an extension in order to free up budget in 2006, but it won't free up enough for a top or good free agent starter or 1B unless the Giants also push the budget to $90M.  At $18M in 2006, Bonds will probably want something in the $10M range for 2007 (Aaron and all), resulting in $14M each year, saving only $4M.  Can't even get Tomko for that.  :^)

I think the bullpen will be good enough overall.  Benitez will have his good moments, more than most closers, once he is fully recovered from his injury in 2006.  Hawkins, I believe, was affected by the racism he experienced in Chicago and the arm problem he had early in the season.  He had been lights out in July and August with only recent difficulties.  Eyre should be re-signed and with Munter and Hawkins round out the set-up men roles.  Fassero (another re-sign) plus minor leaguers, probably Accardo and Taschner, will probably fill out the rest of the bullpen, unless Kinney takes such a role.  He could be in the rotation if they cannot sign a better one for a reasonable salary.

If everyone had been healthy and performing to career norms and excluding Bonds, the Giants offense should have been good enough with our pitching to stay close enough to the division leader until Bonds returned in 2005.  But all the injuries and poor performances, both hitting and pitching, took a toll.  

Luckily, the other West teams have also been hit by significant injuries.  Columnists have been mocking the West but the Dodgers lost Drew, Gagne, and Bradley for long stretches of time, the Padres lost Greene, Hernandez, some starting pitchers, Loretta, for long stretches of time, plus Burroughs disappointed them, plus the Giants injuries too.  Another blog said that St. Louis lost Rolen and Walker and did OK, but they have a strong lineup up and down, most teams don't have that lineup depth to lose a couple of key hitters and survive, let alone do well, and they didn't lose anyone significant in the pitching corps, unlike any of the NL West contenders.

The comment was made above that the team is old and inconsistent - it was that in 2003 and 2004 as well but did well.  The key, obviously, is Barry Lamar Bonds.  If he is there, the team will be fine, if he is not there, they will struggle.  If they would've signed Vlad like I was writing about back then, then they wouldn't be in this pickle, but they didn't and are.

On trades, obviously players in the farm system will be trade bait as usual.  Alfonzo and Durham are probably the top players the Giants are looking to trade to free up budget space; Alfonzo could be gone, as I noted above, for some other team's mistake, I don't think Durham has done bad enough for the Giants to do that, they will probably bring up Frandsen to take his place if he does DL.  But he could go to get budget relief.

The farm system is better than advertised.  There were several players who came up from the minors (or didn't have a full season experience) and contribute significantly to the team:  Lowry, Munter, Taschner, Accardo, Cain, Hennessey, Correia, Ellison, Niekro, Linden.  Plus some farm products were traded for other players who will contribute in 2006:  Jerome Williams, David Aardsma, Jesse Foppert.  

Judging from comments that I read on the Giants farm system, they had a lousy farm system.  But a lousy farm system would not have had so many prospects come up and play key roles and perform good as well.  Only Lowry and Cain of that bunch were given much hope of contributing significantly, plus some thought Aardsma or Valdez might be able to contribute as well.  

I think the Giants also have a number of players getting ready to come up in the 2006-2008 timeframe:  Kevin Frandsen, Fred Lewis, Dan Ortmeier, Brian Burres, Pat Misch, Merkin Valdez, Alfredo Simon, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Nate Schierholtz, Travis Ishikawa, Clay Timpner, Mike Mooney, Marcus Sanders.  I also like Joe Bateman for some reason.  Not all of them as starters, and certainly some of them took a step back this year, but a number of them should be good enough to be at least a supporting player in the near future.  I particularly like Frandsen, Ortmeier, EME, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, and Sanders for greater roles in the future.

I don't know how this compares with other teams, but it is probably as good a bunch of prospects, even without the players who are currently playing for the Giants now but were prospects at the start of the season, that the Giants has had in the past 15 years and one of the best since I've been following them, almost 35 years now.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Sep 22, 2005 2:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Budget
You may want to check on this, but I believe the Giants have more money to spend than you think. Lots of the contracts have deferred money.

I think they are committed to around 76 million at this point.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 2:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

$76 Million
I believe this is correct.  This is assuming all the options are excersized (Schmidt, Alou, Durham, Winn) and any empty spot on the 25 man is filled with minimum wage players.

by Nick Schulte on Sep 22, 2005 2:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Addendum and budget
Ooops, forgot to mention Tyler Walker for the bullpen, my bad.

About the budget, I see where some of the differences probably are.  First, I made a mistake on Hawkin's salary (that is also an option year as well, need to add to your list).  Second, I'm including $1M that was deferred for Rueter.  Third, I've noticed lately that most articles refer to Bonds' salary as $18M for 2006 but my spreadsheet had it at $20M (I got this from the old Blue Demon contract site).  Fourth, I included Eyre at $2M in 2006 as either we will resign him or get someone of equivalent skill for setup.

However, once I made the correction for Hawkin and added all the players, with prospects filling the final spots, I still get around $82M.  Adjusting downward, I get $80M if Bonds is only paid $18M, $79M if you take out Rueter's deferred amount, $77M if you replaced Eyre with a minimum wage player.  So I guess we are pretty close if your list don't account for things as I have it.

I'm willing to accept that Bonds is paid less, but I think we need to account for Rueter's deferral and our bullpen needs Eyre or someone like Eyre as the setup man.  I don't think Munter is ready for that, especially since his arm went out this year, whereas Eyre likes and wants the extra work, and Walker probably should go back to being between middle relief and setup, he didn't do that well while in the closer role.  

With this logic, that would put the total committed to $80M, leaving only $5.3M to acquire a #3/4 starter for the rotation (depends on whether you think Cain is a 3 or a 4).  Remember, pitchers like Tomko got more than $5.3M last off season and we were hoping to upgrade on Tomko.

Hopefully Giants management will open up the special "Maddux" fund (mysterious money that was suddenly available when there were trying to sign Greg Maddux and just as mysterious disappeared after that failed and he signed with Chicago) and allow the Giants to get a premier ($10M) player, whether starting pitcher or 1B.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Sep 22, 2005 6:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm counting Hawkins
I just forgot that it was an option.  I'm not counting the $1M for Rueter and I'm not counting Eyre.  Rueter pushes it to $77M.  I didn't want to count Eyre because I didn't think it was clear he was coming back and I wanted just a starting figure with guys we knew for sure.  And then we could theoretically go from there.

The biggest discrepancy we have is Bonds.  He will be paid only $13M next year with $5M deferred.  We will be paying him $5M/year from 2007 to 2011.  That wouldn't explain all the differences though, so I'm not sure where else we're off.

by Nick Schulte on Sep 22, 2005 7:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We're close enough
Take off Eyre and I got $78M and you got $77M.  What's a $1M between friends?  :^)  We are probably off the $1M because I don't count $300K for all young players, I tried to estimate their salary raise for 2006.  I also remembered that I've seen a lower figure for Alfonzo's salary for 2006, I got $8M total, but I think I've seen lower lately as well.

FYI, according to the last CBA, a team can only deferred a total of $2M immediately but must fund anything above that in an accrual account, so they already have to "pay" $3M immediately by putting that aside in a deferment account.  Plus, as the payment date approaches, you need to fund the deferred accounting by some accrual formula.  That's why I include Bonds full deferment as the Giants have to fund the $3M for this year plus some amounts (not sure exact amount)for past deferments as the payment date approaches.  I figure the $5M is close enough.

That's fine about Eyre, I guess that is what one of the things I think we need to do then, is to get Eyre resigned or his replacement, I don't think we have anyone internal who we can rely on deliverying like Eyre.  Munter has been a nice surprise (sort of, the Giants were high enough on him to put him on the Arizona Fall League last year) but we don't know how he will do next season;  hopefully just as well, but I'm not familiar with how "automatic" a sinkerball pitcher is vs., say, a changeup or slider specialist, but from Lowry and Hennessey's examples, you can lose either "touch" easily.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Sep 23, 2005 3:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

CBA
I'd never heard of this rule before.  I guess I need to find out more about it.  Does this mean that they had been paying out at least $3M of the deferred money each year starting in 2002?  How much will he actually get paid from 2007-2011 then?

by Nick Schulte on Sep 23, 2005 4:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dunn to 1B
I was actually thinking Dunn could play 1B mostly and spell Bonds in LF on his days off...

by fatfrank on Sep 22, 2005 2:17 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My 2 Cents
I agree that you do have to go for it while you have Bonds.  

OF is pretty set with Bonds, Winn and Alou.  Middle IF is also set, but as others noted, Niekro, Snow and Feliz are not ideal first basemen.  I wouldn't pursue any of the weaker FA's/players who can be traded, like Millar, Hatteberg, et al.  I'd go hard for Aubrey Huff, personally.  

Huff would give you a nice emergency OF and 3B, and be a good everyday 1B.  Slide Feliz over to 3B and make Fonzie a backup or at least platoon them somehow.  But God knows what it would take to get Huff in a trade.    

Pitching really is the issue, and if teams are smart, they'll give Millwood some good money this offseason - certainly not 8 million a year, but good cash.  I think Millood is going to end up too expensive for the Giants if they take on a hefty 1B contract - i.e trade for Delgado, sign Konerko long term.

Huff and Millwood together would be at least 10-11 million (Huff is due a little less than 5 I think), and I think that's really not too bad if the Giants are trying to contend next year.

Schmidt is troublesome, but I do like the young arms.  At this point, you do have to hope Armando fully recovers.  I'd go to the Jays and see if any of their young starters are on the market - the Jays are going to spend big this offseason, and there's a chance they'd also be willing to trade a young pitcher or two.  If Ted Lilly is all they'll give you . . . eh.  He's at least not expensive.  

As others have already noted, there are more injury issues in this lineup than you can shake a stick at.  The Giants don't have the minor league depth to bring up rookies if their veterans falter, like the Braves did this year.  

It's a huge risk to go for it next year, only if the lineup is already old, and Bonds' contract is a killer.  But Bonds is Bonds, and as long as the Giants think they can get contributions from Bonds and Schmidt for the majority of the season, they should go for it.

by sasquatch83 on Sep 22, 2005 2:18 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Definitely get Huff...
Package Correia/Feliz for Huff.  Huff is a good LEFT HANDED BAT that will be a 25-30 homerun man for the Giants.  He can be counted on for around 100 rbis too and would cost a lot less than Konerko (in FA) or Dunn (in a trade).  

I remember that earlier, it was rumored that the Drays were asking for Rich Hill and some other prospects for Huff.  I am not too familiar with Hill, though I know he racks up k's but is a bit old for AAA ( i think 25). From my knowledge, and I may be wrong, I dont think he is a great prospect so it seems that the Drays are willing to deal him.

Feliz would fill a 3B spot for the Drays as well as give them a possible starter.  Lamar seems as if he really wants to deal Huff and i think the Giants would be a good fit.

Sabean, stop giving away our 1st round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark on Sep 24, 2005 1:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The D-Rays
Have been known to make rediculous demands for their talent.

by irwin on Sep 24, 2005 5:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Alfonzo as a backup?
Paying 7.5 Mil for a guy to sit the Bench? THAT IS THE GIANTS WHOLE PROBLEM! Thats why they dont have any money! Thats why they arent good!

by fatfrank on Sep 22, 2005 2:30 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Once again...
would you rather play a crappy player because he has a huge contract than play a better cheaper one and sit him on the bench?  (And for the seemingly endless supply of Sabean detractors, the Sacrosanct Billy Bean desperately wanted to sign Alfonzo the year the Giants did)

by kenshin1 on Sep 22, 2005 2:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sabeans good moves?
Can you point out some of the Good moves that Sabean has made in the past couple years?

Signing Michael Tucker? Instead of paying that first round draft pick? Or maybe siging Ruben Rivera? Or how about Angel Chavez? OR maybe you liked the trade of NATHAN and LIRANO for A.J.???

As far as Beane he gets too much credit , he's made some bad trades that everyone seems to forget about. Like sigining Arthur Rhodes to be the closer...
But the A's are fighting for a playoff spot IN A REBUILDING YEAR, with injuries to some of their starters, so its hard to argue against the success.

Two different teams going in two COMPLETELY different directions.

And as I mentioned before, Cleveland with the Wild Card lead and a $41 Mil. payroll...

by fatfrank on Sep 22, 2005 3:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just this year....
The Torrealba and Foppert for Winn trade.  

Torrealba I was sad to see go, but I'm glad he might get a starters role now.  He was due it after Santiago left, but then AJ was signed, then Matheny.  He was trapped.  Foppert I wasn't all that impressed with.  Not this year after the surgery, sure he's not going to be good.  But I remember a few years back when he was healthy, I never really liked him.  I never thought he could make it and be a big impact.

Winn on the other hand seems to be a very good pickup.  He's sparked our offense, and perhaps sparked our winning streak.  Sure, when Bonds came back the winning streak got better, but Winn first turned it around.

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 4:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What about Thome?
With the emergence of Howard, the Phils will be trying to shed Thome's final three years. I've read where they might be willing to pay up to half his salary in order to move him.

A deal that included them taking Fonzie to off-set the first year, then throwing in some cash for the second year is something I could see Sabean doing. Maybe the Giants throw in a prospect or two.

It would be a risk, but a healthy Thome hitting with Bonds and Alou could be a huge reward. Let's face it, the only way Snow is a Giant next year is if the Giants signed a premier RHH 1B (Konerko), and Snow was strictly a LHH backup. They will not endure another year of a slow, slap-hitting defensive specialist as their primary 1B.

A deal like this would also be relatively cheap for next year, enabling them to get a solid SP. I would prefer Morris in this category. I think with Burnnett and Millwood on the market, maybe you can make an early offer (Sabean special) to Morris and get him at a decent price. (4/36).

So here's my roster.. (assuming Thome is proven healthy)

Winn - CF
Durham - 2B
Alou - RF
Teh Lord - LF
Thome - 1B
Feliz - 3B
Vizquel - SS
Matheny - C

#1 - Schmidty (Hopefully rested and ready)
#2 - Morris
#3 - Lowry
#4 - Cain
#5 - Hennessy/Kinney/Correia

Benitez
Hawkins
Eyre - (2 year/ $6M)
Walker
Taschner
Munter
Accardo

Bench - Linden
Bench - Ellison
Bench - Knoedler
Bench - Niekro
Bench - FA middle IF

by mxmob33 on Sep 22, 2005 2:40 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thome would be great
But I think they would have to give up a lot to get him, if the Phillies are going to eat part of his contract. His health is a serious, serious doubt. Back injuries....

The Alfonzo idea is nice, but with the Phillies in contention I doubt they would be willing to take the hit next year.

Morris has had both TJ and at least one shoulder surgery. A 4/36 contract might end up worse than the Alfonzo deal. I wouldn't go more than 2 years for him.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 2:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually
I kind of like this idea, if only because David Bell is one of the few starting 3B worse than Edgardo Alfonso.  I can't think of too many other teams with which that would be the case.

by sasquatch83 on Sep 22, 2005 5:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good idea
I like the idea too but if we have to give up a prospect, they have to take back that lemon we got in the F-Rod trade, last name is Alfredo Simon.

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Sep 22, 2005 6:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bold idea
I think the Phils fans are falling in love with Ryan Howard and wouldn't mind seeing Thome dealt.  Getting rid of Alfonzo at the same time would be sweet!

Bonds isn't going anywhere, not because it won't make the team better and not because he won't do it (though both are true), but because he is ticket sales in the bag while he chases Aaron.  And I'm glad, because he's a thrill to watch.

Unlike the Braves fans, I am willing to trade a great prospect (Marte) because he has nowhere to play.  EME has long been called a hitter who can't play the field, and Casey Kotchman has been called a guy who the Angels aren't going to keep, so swapping them works for me.  Use Lance Niekro as a corner IF backup.

I also admit I am holding out hope for Dan Ortmeier to continue to develop.  A little power-and-speed guy on the team would be good.

by achiappanza on Sep 22, 2005 10:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

*Flashes Gang Sign*
Obviously you go for it while Bonds is around. That's a no-brainer. The first thing to do is assess the state of his knee at the end of the season, and see how it's responded to the play so far. Then you can talk about moving him to first. Personally, I believe he will be moved there.

Rotation-wise, Schmidt, Lowry and Cain are there. If possible, resign Tomko cheaply as the fifth starter. That still leaves one pitcher needed.

I have been kicking around in my head the idea of trading for Manny Ramirez - something like Alfonso + Durham + EME for Manny + (something). Then you give the last rotation spot to Hennessey, and make up for the weak pitching staff with the formidable 3-4-5 of Manny, Bonds, Alou.

by Salemicus on Sep 22, 2005 6:05 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That trade won't net Manny
What would the Sox do with Alfonso?  They won't give up Manny unless they get an impact player in return.  

In the scenario above, the Giants would probably require the Sox to pick up some of Manny's contract.  Otherwise, the Giants will be paying almost $40 mil (about half their total money) to two players.  So the Sox would be stuck with a dud (Alfonso), an injury prone 2B (Durham), and an excellent PROSPECT (EME), while paying Manny to play elsewhere.  They would rather keep Manny's bat and put up his crap.

Besides, where would Manny play?  Bonds has LF and he cannot play first.  He is not quick enough. Manny cannot be hidden anywhere else on the field.

by count sutton on Sep 22, 2005 6:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They'd give up Manny
if anyone was crazy enough to take on that insane contract. The Red Sox gain a LOT merely by virtue of the salary dump. They didn't make a trade this year because the their trade partners wanted to package Kelly Shoppach, and that was too much, even for the Sox. Manny trade talk is now moot for everyone except the Yankees and Mets, anyway, because when this season ends, he'll be a 10-5 guy.

by deadteddy8 on Sep 22, 2005 7:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

DH in the NL?
Because that would be the worst outfield ever

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 6:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

isn't it hard to write
out all these lineups when Bonds will be the DH for the Los Angeles Angels?  LOL!

by So Cal Bob on Sep 22, 2005 6:26 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Next Year
There isn't a whole lot that can be done with the roster for next year. I think the major activities will be trading away Alphonzo and signing/trading for 1SP and a 1b. The bullpen is going to be fine with the current players returning. The few who flop can be filled in from the crop of young arms in the minors and the guys that miss out on the 5th starter spot. Everything else is pretty much set.

Alphonzo will be shipped somewhere for someone elses contract mistake or we will pay for 3/4 of his salary for him to go away. I picture the same kind of deal we did with Livan. I could see us sending him to Cincy for Milton if Cincy picks up some of Milton's contract. I think he was destined to fail in that ballpark and he would be much more effetive in SF. Although SBC is more suited to RH flyball pitchers.

For the SP vacancy I think Tomko is gone. I would like to see sabean spend most of the available money here. If he cannot get Millwood or Morris then look into trading for another SP.

For 1b we need to find a cheap platoon partner for Neikro. He has shown that he can hit RH and I think he has a chance to hit lefties as well. Although for next year we cannot depend on him turning it around. I would love to see Sabean trade for someone like Ben Broussard. I know the Indians have been hard up for some RH power so I could see them being willing to trade Broussard for Linden. Linden's 4th OF spot could be filled by Ortmier or a cheap FA who can hit RH pitching. If we can't get a young LH 1b then we should start looking for cheap LH vetran options.

The extra spots on the roster should be filled with players making the minimum. Ellison should be the 5th OF and a utility IF can be found to replace Alphonzo and the other IF possitions. Here is how I envision the roster.

OF
Bonds
Winn
Alou
Linden/Ortmier
Ellison

IF
Durham
Vizquel
Feliz
Neikro
Broussard
UT to be filled by Chavez/Dallimore/Frandsen/FA

C
Matheny
Knoedler/Haad/FA

SP
Schmidt
FA/Trade
Lowry
Cain
Hennesey/Coriea/Kinney/Cheap FA

BP
Benitez
Hawkins
Eyre
Taschner
Walker
Final 2 spots to be filled by Munter/Accardo/losers of 5th starter position.

vs. RH
CF Winn
SS Vizquel
2b Durham
LF Bonds
RF Alou
1b Broussard/LH Bat.
3B Feliz
C  Matheny

vs. LH
CF Winn
SS Vizquel
2b Durham
LF Bonds
RF Alou
1b Neikro
3B Feliz
C  Matheny

by malarky on Sep 22, 2005 6:30 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

*Gang Sign* (The Dodgers Are Evil)
I skimmed through, so it may have been said, but what no one has yet mentioned is that Giants season ticket licenses are up for renewal this offseason. Thus, THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL Bonds won't play for the team next year, unless he retires. This little detail also forces the GM's hand in that Sabean must go for it all yet again; he cannot tell prospective season ticket buyers that they might have to watch two or three years of rebuilding right from the start.
On to the players: Y'all have identified the needs well. It seems that dumping Alfonzo, handing Feliz the 3B job, and getting a 1B is the order of the offseason. Dunn is the ideal solution. The Giants have a few chips to play with, but unless the Reds are willing to pay handsomely in present-day gains, the chips aren't worth trading. Would you trade Cain for Dunn? Dunn's awesome, but... Cain is so shiny. Would the Reds accept Valdez and Hennessey? Correia? Tyler Walker? Or -- gulp -- Lowry? Some combination of the above? If you're the Reds, why wouldn't you simply reduce Griffey's playing time somewhat in the name of injury prevention, and sub in Wily Mo Pena for another year while you've still got Wily Mo under your collective thumb? Or trade Kearns? I think the Giants are going to have to go elsewhere.
Other teams with "extra" players include the Padres, who aren't likely to trade with a division rival. So, that means Nady and Klesko are out. An intriguing possibility is Mike Piazza. The Mets have their own 1B issues, though, and he didn't exactly look like a Gold Glover in his games there. Besides, he's probably too expensive for the production he'd bring. Might they instead trade Cliff Floyd to make room for Victor Diaz? Is Phil Nevin D-U-N? Millar? What would it take to land Ryan Howard? Is Thome done? How much money would the Yankees pay to unload Giambi? (Would Bonds allow the team to bring him in?)
Ultimately, I think the course the Giants should take, because of cost issues, is to let Snow leave, keep Niekro as a lefty-masher, and roll the dice on Calvin Pickering as a platoon partner. He'll be inexpensive on a one-year deal, and the upside is considerable. Barring a can't-refuse offer for a top-tier 1B (Delgado, Dunn), I don't think the Giants can do much positive in this department.
As for pitching, I think only one signing is in order, because a lot was done this year to settle the bullpen. Hawkins/Eyre/Walker/Munter/Taschner setting up for Benitez looks promising, Walker and Eyre's potential for burnout notwithstanding. For the same reasons Bonds will be with the team next year, there's no way in hell Schmidt won't be with the team. So, Schmidt, Lowry, a free agent, Cain, and whoever doesn't totally suck among Hennessey, Correia, Jerome Williams, and Foppert (no, I'm not bitter). According to mlb4u.com, Ted Lilly will be on the market and could be a solid number 3 if the top names prove too expensive or getting a top 1B precludes spending lots on money on pitching. Since we're only going for one or two years here, Steve Trachsel may also be an option and wouldn't cost too much because the Mets will view his departure as addition by subtraction. And from the I Can't Believe He Has Great Stuff File, Jamey Wright could follow in Brett Tomko's stellar... um... interesting footsteps.

by deadteddy8 on Sep 22, 2005 6:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Trachsel
Mets have a 2.5M option on Steve Trachsel.  If they pick it up, he becomes a 10/5 guy.  So, he would have to want to go to SF for the Giants to be able to acquire him.
"Remember, no matter where you go, there you are." Pigkiller, Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome

by finman on Sep 23, 2005 10:11 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's just one thing.....
All of you are counting on Cain, putting him at 3 or 4 in the rotation.  I don't exactly trust him yet.  It's his first time around the league and all the tearms are going off of are the scouting reports.  Sure he's going to get them for a while, but anyone remember William VanLandingham?  No?  That's because he was a huge prospect, made it up to the majors, and then just dissappeared.  Don't know what happened to him at all.  I feel he might be a good #5 this year, but I don't want to have to count on him.

by WalrusMan on Sep 22, 2005 7:29 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cain
Is one of the top-five prospects in baseball - Vanlauchingpad never was. [he couldn't throws strikes is what happened]

But you are absolutely correct, he will still be an unproven commodity. It would be nice to have contigency plans in the event he needs more AAA time.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 7:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also
it would be quite beneficial to have a inning eater to allow Cain's worload to be limited.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 7:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

give Cain
30 starts in the #5 spot and keep his pitches under 110.  He racks up 180 innings with 10 wins with an ERA around 3.80 and everyone is happy.  That would be a great #5.

He should no way make 33-34 starts and rack up 230+ innings.

by So Cal Bob on Sep 22, 2005 7:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

but he will
especially if he pitches well.

by irwin on Sep 22, 2005 8:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What the Giants Should Do
First, if I'm Brian Sabean, I'd resign because I'm a terrible GM.

This offseason:
Sign some veterans to 1 year deals (Jose Cruz, Tomko, etc.)  Hope you make a run because this is will be your last chance at a WS for a while.

Next offseason:
Durham, Bonds, Alfonzo, Feliz, Schmidt come off the books.

  1. Sign Adam Dunn for 6 years $85 million (if he's not a FA, then trade for him and immediately extend him)
  2. Make a big push for Barry Zito
  3. Get rid of Felipe
  4. Bring in a young manager
  5. Trade for Joey Gathright
  6. Play prospects
  7. Hope you don't lose 100 games
  8. Sign a bunch of cheap veterans (w/o giving up draft picks and hope that some of the prospects will be ready in the next year or two)
  9. Egg Sabean's house for leaving you with an almost empty farm system, an old team, and some bad contracts
Zito
Cain
Lowry
-----
-----
  1. Gathright CF
  2. Vizquel SS
  3. Dunn RF
  4. Martinez-Esteve LF
  5. Dmitri Young 1B
  6. Russell Branyan 3B
  7. Spivey 2B
  8. Matheny C
Since Bonds will be the gone there will be 3 new attractions:
  1. Dunn
  2. Zito
  3. Branyan's chase for 200 Ks

by UncleMiltie on Sep 22, 2005 8:55 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gathright, et al
The lineup you've got there has exactly ONE guaranteed top tier hitter (Dunn) and ONE more guaranteed "professional hitter" (Young). That's not good enough for the payroll bracket the Giants occupy. If anything, the Giants' recent strategy of signing older players and eschewing draft picks has provided a level of certainty that teams relying on younger players don't have, even the successful ones such as the A's. Why sign Michael Tucker? Because we know within a pretty narrow scope what he's gonna do. Going for Joey Gathright, I think, would be folly, unless he's going to be the fourth outfielder or eighth hitter, and Matheny occupies that slot. If you're gonna trade for Dunn, and you also need a CF, why not figure out a way to work Ryan Freel into the deal? He's a prototypical leadoff hitter, if a few years older, and he provides positional flexibility should some other options come up later on. If we're relying on EME as the four hitter in 2007, I think there's a bit of a problem, since Dmitri Young won't be a three or four hitter by then.
Oh, and don't you mean Branyan AND Dunn's chases for 200 strikeouts? :)

by deadteddy8 on Sep 22, 2005 11:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Represent!
Ideas I've liked so far:

Schmidt for Delgado.  Good for the Fish because it takes his contract off the books and gives them someone to replace Burnett.  Good for the Giants since they get a hitter who can actually hit the ball out of the park.

Alfonzo plus a top prospect (Valdez, EME) for Thome and cash.  Gives Philly some salary relief and clears a spot for Howard.  Give SF that bat they need, but risky because of Thome's health.

Alfonzo, Valdez and a B prospect (Burres, Mazone) for Dunn and Milton.  Sure Milton sucks, but he could rebound at SBC and that's the price you pay for Dunn.  He has never in his career had a season this bad, so I think a bounceback is probable.  At least Alfonzo's contract is gone and of course, Dunn fits the need for a home run hitter.

by The Balls of Summer on Sep 23, 2005 2:18 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why would the Reds make that deal?
I would rather overpay for a crappy inning eating SP than a guy who will make $8 Mil and sit on my bench.  Where would Alfonzo play?  And why would they ever throw in Dunn for that?  I can only imagine the offers the Reds were getting for Dunn at the deadline.  I am sure the offers were better than an overpaid utility guy, a propsect with an injured arm, and a B prospect.

Yes, the Reds want to deal Milton.  I could even see Alfonzo straight up for Milton as just a bad salary swap that the Reds get to cut loose on a bad contract a year early.  But they will not just throw in Dunn.  He has a lot of value and they can get quality players in return for him.

by count sutton on Sep 23, 2005 10:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Milton
Still has a 3rd year on his contract that the reds probably want to get rid of. The deal would save them 8 million or so in 07, and be a wash in 06

by irwin on Sep 23, 2005 1:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's my point
I can see a Milton deal.  But they will not throw in Dunn. He has much more value than that proposed deal.

by count sutton on Sep 23, 2005 1:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thome...
Hello everyone,

Thome might not be a bad option for SF and Philadelphia would probably be willing to trade him, but the real question is, will Thome be willing to go to SF?  He has a full, no-trade clause.  If he doesn't want to go, he's not going anywhere.  That's why Philadelphia is stuck - Howard would be the easier one to trade, but he's the future, Thome is not.

Also, Thome does have back problems, so you would be risking him not being in the lineup for long periods of time.

Plus, Thome has a tendency to swing for the fences, which results in a lot of strikeouts and missed opportunities with men on base.  Being that he's playing with Bonds and McCovey Cove is in right field, I can see Thome trying to pull every ball he can to see how many he can "splash-down" - this will likely result in a ton of strikeouts and many runners left on base.

In fact, I could see Thome challenging 200 Ks a season - I believe he has gone over 170 or even 180 before in his career once or twice if I remember correctly.  

In short, I'm not sure if he will provide as much of a boost to the SF offense as you think he will.  He'll probably put fans into the seats, but I really don't know how much the Giants themselves will improve.

Plus, between Bonds and Thome, I think many pitchers will still walk Bonds to get to Thome because Thome is not the pure hitter Bonds is.  

Just look at the pitch Bonds hit for a homerun off John Patterson on Wednesday night - could you see Thome hitting that pitch?  I can't - he'd probably strike out on it (and it wouldn't surprise me if he chased it, especially if Thome was in a drought - he chased some bad pitches in Cleveland when he was in some of his long droughts.)

So, overall, Thome might bring fans to the ballpark and help boost ticket revenue, but I really don't know how much offensive help he will really bring you, between his health and his high number of Ks and leaving runners on base.  Plus, he has to agree to come to SF first - not exactly a given.

I'm certainly glad Shapiro DID NOT resign him - or the Indians would have been tied down with his contract and would likely not be making the playoff push they are making right now (as they would never have been able to sign Millwood, who has been big for us despite his deceiving record - he receives the lowest amount of run support in the AL; plus, it might have been troublesome to get both Hafner and Thome at-bats if both of them couldn't play 1B.)

Also keep in mind that Philadelphia's current push for the Wild Card really started after Thome went out for the year and Ryan Howard was inserted into the lineup.  

Just some points to consider on Thome.  

Take care and have a good day.

by indiansfan on Sep 23, 2005 2:36 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thome
If:
  1. Thome's elbow and back are healthy
  2. the Phillies are willing to pay a chunk of his salary
  3. Thome is willing to play elsewhere
I would take a chance on him.  He does strike out a lot, but he hit 89 home runs for Philly before this year and has a career OBP of .408.  I think the Giants would be crazy not to at least inquire about his health and availability.
"Remember, no matter where you go, there you are." Pigkiller, Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome

by finman on Sep 23, 2005 10:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thome
I'd be scared to death of his back, that seems like the type of injury that can keep coming back again and again.  If he was healthy he could be a HUGE addition to the Giant's lineup.  He would bat third, in front of Bonds, and Alou would bat fifth.  So your worry about leaving runners on base wouldn't be as much of a concern.  With a guy that takes that many pitches in front of Bonds pitchers would have a tough dillema.  You can't serve it up to Thome but you DON'T want to walk him with Bonds on-deck.

by Nick Schulte on Sep 23, 2005 11:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

MY 2 Cents
I get a headache every time I try to figure this one out.  Too many unknowns and longshot options.  The Giants situation is unique in that they have the best hitter in the game for one more, possibly two more years, but he's hurting big time.  They have very little wiggle room for next year, but after Bonds, Schmidt, Durham, Alfonzo and Alou's contracts go off the books, it's wide open.  

The one thing they absolutely can't do is sign more 40 yo players to 3 year contracts.  Anyone new that they bring in has to fit into long term plans or be for only 1 year or 2 at the most.

By my calculations, assuming they pick up the options on Winn and Hawkins, they are committed to $76 M for next year.  

Peter Magowan has signaled that he might be willing to raise payroll for one year to make a last run with Barry.  That's doable since so many big contracts come off the books after next year.  If they are serious about this, they are going to have to go up to around $100 M.  Here's what I'd do:

  1. Re-sign Scott Eyre.  He's already signaled that he will take a hometown discount.  I don't see them getting anyone better for less and I don't see them competing without a lefty of his caliber in the pen.  Probable cost: $2 M. Might be able to get away with $1.5 M for next year with a multiyear deal.
  2.  Sign Brett Tomko to a multiyear deal as long as the price isn't too high.  $3-4 M/yr would be reasonable.
  3.  Pick up Schmidt's option.  I would have liked to see him traded at the deadline, but now they have to pay him $3 M to leave.  You're not going to get a better pitcher than him for $7.5 M. I wouldn't sign him to a long term contract.
  4. Sign a FA starter.  My choice is Burnett.  He's a bit of a risk, but the upside is huge.  He's the one guy out there who could absolutely change the balance of power in the NL West.  It would obviously take a long term deal, but he could then assume the #1 role after Schmidt leaves for FA after next year. Other guys who I wouldn't be unhappy getting if Burnett doesn't work out include Jeff Weaver, Jarrod Washburn, Kevin Millwood,  Matt Morris.
  5. Acquire a lefthanded hitting first baseman with some pop.  I'd prefer Delgado to Thome, but neither one is probably realistic.  Other possibilities include Lyle Overbay, Ryan Klesko, or Cliff Floyd. Overbay would be my choice if Delgado isn't doable.
As for the farm system/draft:

Kevin Frandsen takes over at second base when Durham's contract is up.

They are in much better shape with position prospects than a couple of years ago, but probably no superstars in the making.  It will be interesting to sort out which ones are keepers.  They will have to get their next superstar from outside the organization.

Pitching is very depleted. Cain is a stud but there are no other sure fire major leaguers in the organization.  Joaquin and Martis look promising, but that's at least 3 years off.

The 2006 Draft needs to be Best player available, pitcher, pitcher, pitcher, pitcher and then more pitchers.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 23, 2005 8:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah but...
Quick comments:
  1.  Magowan said in recent San Jose Mercury that he was reiterating that the Giants will have a 2006 budget similar to 2005's, which was $85M.
  2.  Tomko said last offseason that he knows he's underpaid for 2005 and then referred to a couple of pitchers similar to him who got $7M/year contracts, like Kent Benson.  So he might pull an Aurilia and insist on a higher amount and Sabean will have moved on by the time he realizes that no one is paying him that.
  3.  I would resign Schmidt if we can get a good hometown discount plus restructure his 2006 salary to move some of it out to future years, like we did with Rueter's last contract.
  4.  I agree that the Giants probably will have to get their next superstar from outside the system but I still think there is still an outside chance for a few of our prospects in the farm system, if they continue to develop:  Fred Lewis, EME, Nate Schierholtz, Travis Ishikawa, Marcus Sanders.  Again, very low odds, but I think there's at least a chance for one of them, they've all shown a good potential in one area or another.  
Lastly, I don't see how your 2006 draft is any different from their past drafts.  Even in the last couple of years where they start off picking position players, pitchers outnumbered position players by a good margin.  

by biasedgiantsfanatic on Sep 23, 2005 4:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Probably true...
to all of your comments.  

If we are truly stuck with an $85 M payroll, I don't see any way of making any significant upgrades unless we can find a way to dump Alfonzo.  

I agree that Tomko may well have in inflated opinion of his value, then again, with some of the contracts given out last year, he might not.  It just seems to me that he would be better off settling down with one team for awhile, but I know that's an old fashioned way of thinking.

If we can get 2-3 solid starters out of our current position players and 2-3 reserves, I'll be happy and our farm system will have served us well.  Probably a longshot for any of them to be All-Stars let alone superstars.  I was excited about Pablo Sandoval until I saw his picture in BA this AM.  My God, that kid is fat!  I'm excited about Martis and Joaquin, but they have a long ways to go.  Watch for a breakout year from Kelyn Acosta next year.

  1. Ortmeier and Lewis in rounds 2,3.
  2. Schierholtz and Jennings in rounds 2,3.
  3. No first rounder.  Eddy, Timpner and Bowker drafted high. I think Will Thompson and Frandsen too.
  4. Copeland first player picked.  
While there may have been a few more pitchers drafted, the upper rounds have had more position players in recent years than in early Sabean drafts.  Right now, we need more high ceiling pitchers than position players, but if we could get a future All-Star position player with the #1 next year, I wouldn't turn it down.  After that, all pitching.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 23, 2005 9:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just a Thought
I think many people are overstimating Edgardo Alfonzo's trade value.  It will be very difficult for the Giants to move him and most likely they will not get much value in return if they do.  The goal in trading is to free up money, not acquire talent.  Hopefully, by freeing up the money they can sign someone.

I just don't think the Giants can get someone like Manny, Dunn, or Thome in deals where the best guy they are giving up is Alfonzo.

by count sutton on Sep 23, 2005 10:55 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I doubt they can even unload his contract
I think the only way he gets moved is if someone else with a way-too-big-contract is coming back.  I wouldn't be surprised if he's a Giant next year.  But in fairness, most of these trade suggestions are including him as a sort of "cash" coming back to the Giants part, and not so much a "player to be aquired" part.  But I agree that people are overestimating his value.

by Nick Schulte on Sep 23, 2005 11:39 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RE
Thome = way too big contract

I think the Phillies will practically give him away, if they can.

But, yeah, the back injury is a great reason to stay away from Thome.

I am still hoping for Wilkerson.

by irwin on Sep 23, 2005 1:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wilkerson
He seems a lot like a younger JT Snow with more speed, which might be a good option for the Giants.  I want to find out if all the injuries he had this year will affect him next year, or if an offseason of healing will bring a little more power back to his bat.

by Nick Schulte on Sep 23, 2005 1:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re
Yeah, the injuries.

But Wilkerson has more power than Snow ever did, and can play the outfield well. I think his versatility would be a huge plus on a team with 3-4 players who should be limited to 120 games.

In fact, I think versatility should be a hallmark of the Giants 06 roster.

by irwin on Sep 23, 2005 1:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

lol...
I have more speed than JT.  I would prefer any 1st baseman who at least occasionally hits homeruns ;-)

by kenshin1 on Sep 23, 2005 5:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah
The speed part goes without saying.  I just meant that a young JT Snow did hit the occasional HR and got on-base at a good clip, similar to Wilkerson.  

Wilkerson's versatility also would be helpful on this old team.  Between him and Feliz they can cover most of the positions on the field.

by Nick Schulte on Sep 23, 2005 5:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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