You're the GM....Giants edition

by z4 landshark on Sep 18, 2005 12:43 AM EDT

Hey JOhn,

Can you think about doing one of these for the Giants next week? I would really appreciate it and I think that it would be very very interesting to do one for the Giants.

Sabean is faced with many many questions this offseason. With this being Bonds possibly last year in 2006, what does he have to do shore up the team and make a run for it? It looks like they definitely need another starting pitcher, like a #2. Who do they target either in trades or FA?? They need more power at the corner infield spots in order to "protect" Bonds (Fonzie and Snow just dont cut it). What does Sabean do? Are Hennessey and Correia worthy of pitching in the Giants rotation? What can you count on from Cain? Will Lowry be able to build on his impressive August? There are many other questions.

With regards to the farm system...the single A team offensively performed very well. Who do you promote? What route do you take with Eddy Esteve, who can hit but cant field?? What about Freddy Lewis? Merkin Valdez remains a mystery, where should he pitch next year? And what about Frandsen?

Though the Giants have usually been very conservative in their draft strategy which route should they go in this upcoming draft? It seems they have a lack of pitching in their system. Should they draft a lot of young, high ceiling pitchers or take polished college pitchers? Do they also need to target more IF's, if so high ceiling players or polished ones?? I am wondering any other people's opinions too...

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Giants GM

This is partly what I would do if I were Sabean, and partly what Sabean might do...

Randy Winn has been a nice acquisition. He shouldn't be leading off, though. Durham should, and Winn should bat second. Durham gets on base very well (.370) and still has some speed. Winn probably won't keep the OPS over 1.000 next year, and assuming he puts up his typical .285/.345/.425 season, he will get on base fairly regularly and steal a few bases too. I'd rather see Vizquel in the 8 hole in this lineup, instead of the 2-hole where he's been fairly frequently.

Bonds should bat third.

The cleanup spot needs to be addressed through free agency or trade. I'd like to see them get a power-hitting 1B or corner outfielder, then slide Feliz into either RF or 1B, depending on the acquisition.

In this example, let's say they do a typical Giants move and trade pitchers Merkin Valdez and Kevin Correia to the Phillies for 1B Jim Thome.

This is the lineup I'd like to see:
1 2B Durham
2 CF Winn
3 LF Bonds
4 1B Thome
5 RF Feliz
6 3B Alfonzo
7 SS Vizquel
8 C Matheny

Then they sign a solid #2 starting pitcher, let's say Kevin Millwood. AJ Burnett and Jeff Weaver are also great options for this team. Less attractive options are Kenny Rogers and Jerrod Washburn.

In a perfect world, Schmidt returns to ace form, Cain builds on his strong cup of coffee (high 3's ERA, K/IP), and Lowry has a breakout year. I really wouldn't be surprised if all three happen. Schmidt will benefit from the offseason rest, Lowry seems to be missing bats more this year than ever before (and a strong second half is never a bad thing), and Cain is looking very impressive.

Rotation:
Schmidt
Millwood
Lowry
Cain
Hennessey

Some think bullpen depth is going to be a big issue, but I disagree. Benitez should be back to all-star form next year, Eyre is one of the best LHP setup men in the league, and Hawkins, when used correctly, is a great righthander for the 8th inning. This Taschner guy could be very good. Fassero and Tyler Walker will be decent mopup men.

As for the Class-A guys, EME, Frandsen, and Ishikawa are three slam-dunk promotions for next year. Arguments can be made for Schierholtz and Jake Wald, and I might give Wald a shot because he's a little older, but Schierholtz needs to prove he's got discipline before I would promote him. Another half year at advanced A might do him good.

In the draft, I'm looking for pitching all the way. This team's organizational depth at pitching is horrendous. I'm more inclined to go for a high-risk high school player than a polished college guy with no stuff.

by limozeen on Sep 18, 2005 1:54 AM EDT reply actions

Alou?

Where do the Alous fit into that picture?

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 18, 2005 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Alou

Hmmm seemed like I was forgetting something.

Alou should play RF and bat 5th, Feliz should start at 3rd over Alfonzo and bat 6th. If someone gets hurt, Alfonzo goes to 3B and Feliz fills the injured position (1B, OF, SS, 2B, etc).

by limozeen on Sep 18, 2005 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Where's the cash come from?

Cause that is on heck of a lot of payroll to add. Schierholtz gets promoted too - a third year in San Jose isn't going to help him.

by irwin @ Minor League Ball on Sep 18, 2005 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I dunno...

... I think you either have to do something like this, or trade Bonds to the AL and rebuild. If Bonds is there, then you have to spend the money to try to win.

I do agree that the guy seems to have forgotten about Alou, though. Which means you have to add the big bat at 1B, and Feliz becomes the supersub. Probably for the best anyway.

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Sep 18, 2005 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

The cash is in Bonds

This will most likely be the last year the Giants have under Bonds' huge contract. When he goes off the books they will have around 20 million freed in salary. That being said, they want to win in his last year, so spending that 20 million a year early wouldn't be out of the question, especially if the Phillies eat a substantial chunk of Thome's salary.

Due for a raise:
Pedro Feliz 1M
Edgardo Alfonzo 1M
Moises Alou 2M (player option)
Armando Benitez 2.5M
Ray Durham .5M (player option exercised)
Jason Schmidt .25M
Omar Vizquel 1.5M
Scott Eyre .5M
Randy Winn 1.25M

Coming off the books:
JT Snow 2M
Brett Tomko 1.25M
Marquis Grissom 2.5M Released
Jim Brower 1.5 Released
Kirk Reuter 5M Released

Total: 2.75 gained. (Note this doesn't include arbitration)

by limozeen on Sep 18, 2005 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

not to mention...

...that they have the cash, they just don't want to sacrifice profit for wins

by losgigantes on Sep 18, 2005 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting...

They do need a LH bat, but I'm not sure Thome is the answer. I'm sure the Phillies will fall all over themselves to dump his salary, but do you want to pay 10+ mill for his bad back? How many more years is on that contract?

Sure, Durham could leadoff, but he's only good for 120 games. Probably could say the same about Alou.

Millwood had a good year. He's surely going to get gobs of money...Counting on Cain/Lowry/Hennessey is folly, but they don't have any options. Hennessey will end up in the bullpen.

Valdez is interesting... had a good year in AA, but went down with a strained elbow. I wonder if TB will deal Gomes for him?

Is Alfonzo under contract for next year? If not, let him walk. Hell, I'd rather have Aurilia at third. At least he knows how to jerk a cheap one down the line in LF once in awhile.

Counting on Cain/Lowry/Hennessey is folly, but they don't have any options. Hennessey will end up in the bullpen.

by losgigantes on Sep 18, 2005 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Unjfortunately.....

Alfonzo is under contract for one more year.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 18, 2005 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Lefthanded First Baseman

I agree the Giants need a lefthanded hitter with some pop at first base. Thome would be swinging for the fences, but he's go a long term, expensive contract and appears to be an injury risk. Not sure you want to lock up that kind of money for that long on a player you might not want to build the future around. Other potential options:

Lyle Overbay
Aubrey Huff
Ryan Klesko.

Another name to think about is Robert Fick. He wouldn't be an upgrade over JT at first base, but he could simultaneously be a lefthanded hitting backup to Mike Matheny at catcher.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 18, 2005 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Starting Pitching

Jarrod Washburn would be a perfect fit in that he balances out the rotation with 3 RHP and 2 LHP. I would also re-sign Tomko if the price wasn't too high. Rotation:

Schmidt
Washburn
Tomko
Lowry
Cain

I don't think you can go into the season with either Hennessey or Correia as even a 5'th starter if you think you are a contender.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 18, 2005 10:08 PM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure about Washburn...

This year: 169.3 IP, 179 hits, 92 Ks, 1.35 WHIP, 4.89 K/9, .278 BAA
Last year: 149.3 IP, 159 hits, 86 Ks, 1.33 WHIP, 5.18 K/9, .269 BAA

Last year looks like a better year in all ratios, except his ERA was 1.29 runs higher. Hmm...

by limozeen on Sep 18, 2005 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions

One Possibility

Well, Washburn is one possibility. So is Millwood. The free agent market is actually a little better for pitchers than for position players this year. Other possibilities include AJ Burnett(expensive), Jeff Weaver, Esteban Loiza, Paul Byrd(has expressed a strong preference for re-signing with the Angels), Matt Morris.

If the Giants are serious about giving it a run in Barry's last year, they are going to either have to re-sign Tomko plus sign another FA or else they are going to have to sign or trade for two experienced starters. Hennessey and Correia just aren't going to cut it even as a #5.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 19, 2005 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Farm System/Draft

Frandsen, Lewis, and Ortmeier should start at Fresno.

I'm really worried that Eddy M-E may have a fatal flaw with extremely poor fielding exacerbated by a bad right shoulder. The last time I saw him play late this year, he also was showing signs of poor general physical condition.

Schierholtz, Bowker, Timpner, Ishikawa, Jennings, Wald should all go to AA Norwich.

Marcus Sanders, Brian Horwitz, Will Thompson, and possibly Ben Copeland and Mark Minicozzi go to San Jose. Sanders, if he can continue to field the SS position, should be an eventual major league leadoff hitter.

Pablo Sandoval, Antoan Richardson, Mike Mooney, and Ariel Nunez go to Augusta.

The cupboard is almost bare for pitchers. Brian Wilson looks like a potential major league reliever. Merkin Valdez will have to prove he's healthy. If so, he should move up to Fresno.
Jonathan Sanchez looks promising as a lefty starter. He should start out at San Jose. He needs to get more stamina. There are conflicting reports as to what he throws, but he's a big strikeout pitcher. In one game late this year, he struck out 11 batters in 4 innings.
Kelyn Acosta looks like he's bouncing back from TJ better than Foppert did. He has a big time arm and should move up to San Jose. He's only 21 yo. Craig Whitaker may have gotten his feet on the ground in the bullpen at Augusta. He could repeat there as a starter or move up to San Jose as a reliever. He's got a big time arm too. Ben Griffin, Ben Nieto, Sergio Romo, and Paul Lussier are promising names from this year's draft. It remains to be seen how they do in full season ball. There are two more names worth mentioning. Waldis Joaquin and Sharon Martis are a pair of 18 yo's from the Dominican Academy who pitched some dominating games in the AZL. Joaquin is physically bigger and may have more upside, but Martis actually had better numbers. In his last appearance, Joaquin struck out 8 batters in 3 IP. That's pretty dominant. In summary, there's some promise here, but no sure bets.

In the upcoming draft, the Giants should have a fairly high draft pick. They should get the best college pitcher they can get for the first round. After that, go for ceiling. They need to go pitcher, pitcher, pitcher, pitcher, pitcher.

by DrBGiantsfan on Sep 18, 2005 10:29 PM EDT reply actions

A thought

EME went down with a foot injury - could this have been hurting him all year and eventually had to shut it down? This might explain the weight, speed, dh-ing after arm healed, and the alleged lack of hustle.

I would be inclined to see what Richardson can do in San Jose - especially if he had a good instruction league. I suppose it depends on where Copeland and Dyche go.

For accuracy's sake, Lussier was drafted last year.

by irwin @ Minor League Ball on Sep 19, 2005 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Draft.....

I think for right now, the Giants are looking at a #9 overall pick. I personally feel that since the Giants normally do not have this high a pick, they need to utilize it by picking the best pitcher talent wise available whether it be a high school or college pitcher. If Daniel Bard falls to them, they should definitely snatch him. Another reasonability is Dallas Buck or Ian Kennedy. But, if a stud HS pitcher falls to them, I wouldnt be scared away if I were the Giants.

Though college pitchers may make it quicker to the show, the Giants need to draft the most talented pitcher. They have some young arms already at the majors (Cain, Lowry, Hennessey, and Correia) and they should use the draft to stock up their farm system. Put it this way, I will be very very disappointed if Sabean uses this potential top 10 pick on a easily signable college pitcher, but it wouldnt suprise me the least bit. He should do what the Royals did in that they took Gordon, the next best available talent at their position instead of worrying about money issues.

Sabean, stop giving away our 1st round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark on Sep 18, 2005 11:02 PM EDT reply actions