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Francoeur (again)

Well, Francoeur did it again tonight hitting a home run, a triple and throwing out another runner from the OF, yet the guys over at Baseball Prospectus are calling Francoeur a "fluke", comparing him to Shane Spencer and saying "he's not actually ready to stick in the major leagues."

Ususally this kind of sabermetric stat-head player-hating is only reserved against Jose Reyes and Alfonso Soriano...  Is Francoeur's success threatening to bring down the entire sabermetric revolution??

So, I guess my question is -- how many more awesome nights does Francoeur have to have before the stat-heads remove their eyes from their spreadsheets long enough to see what a great player he is???

0 recs  |  Comment 12 comments

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What he has to do....
Well, JF (and any other batter, but particularly a Brave) should do better than Hurricane Hazle before we can even begin to think of his performance as anything but a fluke.

At this point, he's clearly better than Hazle in that he is significantly younger and thus has more growth potential, particularly with respect to power.

However, Hazle had 18 BB to go with his 134 AB, whereas JF has yet to take four pitches out of the strike zone.  

Hazle struck out 15 times in those 134 AB.  JF is above this rate, but not badly (19 in 105 going into tonight).

Hazle was, well, probably a mediocre OF (I imagine someone could give a meaningful report...I can't other than looking at the stats), but JF appears to be quite good at this point (good arm, at the absolute least).

So, JF's performance suggests great potential, but the current performance is (a) hardly without precedence in the annals of baseball, and (b) does anything but guarantee greatness.

-tmt

by Tom Talavage on Aug 18, 2005 4:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

DiSars
Are you sure you're not BP-hating or sabremetrician-hating more than they are supposedly player-hating.  There are just as many artciles recently at BP talking about the success fo the braves farm system with JF being a prime example.  Tons of people are quick to label BP this or that because of one view or the other.  It's a bunch of independent ideas for starters, and secondly JS isn't hating on Francouer in that DiSars articles.  It's an award regularly handed out at BP for the guy who goes the longest without walking.  

This is not something newly developed to hate on Jose Reyes or Jeff Francouer.  It simply helps to point out the extreme nature of the situation.  What JS has done is look at the success of those who have walked sparingly in the past to see if this type of success is sustainable.  History seems to think not.  That's not to say that it's not out of the realm of possibilities, but he will will definitely be an outlier and a case for deeper study if he does sustain such success without improving his walk rate if his batting average ever dips.

What I also find about BP is that they don't rule out the idea that someone could be a whole new breed.  Just like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, it's almost impossible to find comparables to project future success (or lack thereof).  However, for Jeff there currently are comparables that have come on to the scene similarly to how Jeff has.  It would be silly not to look at them to try to gain some information don't you think?

Personally, I'm a huge Braves and JF fan, but don't want to hear all day about how great someone is.  I can see how great he is.  I want to question his success and learn more.  Because of the track records of people with low walk rates in the past, I'm very excited to see how Francouer's past pans out.  My susupcion is that long term success may require some bit of patience at the plate, but would be thrilled to see him succeed otherwise.  

In fact, I bet sabremetric-minded GM's are pulling for JF, so that, other GM's who think like you do, will throw out the millions of stats and counterexamples out the door because of one outlier.  Thus propagating poor valuations of players who lack patience who, historical have shown they don't succeed nearly as much as those who do.  

That's the thing about BP, it's not about hating.  It's about watching, learning and adding to the pile of information you have to draw upon for better understanding.  Extreme outliers like JF are sure to be a hot topic since I imagine we all will learn something from what becomes of his career.  

While I'm on the topic.  You always hear the scouts vs stats debate.  The odd things is, I rarely hear statheads discredit the value of scouts.  What I do hear (and maybe it's just the Scout's honor guy and Joe Morgan) is scout minded guys discredit statheads.  For the majority of people, the two scouting and searching statistics for patterns go hand in hand, not against each other.  

by rustic on Aug 18, 2005 6:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

strike outs
I can think of a supstar right now that swings at everything hittable and does an amazing job.

Vlad Does not take pitches and can hit anything.

I know it is rare to be able to succeed like that, but just maybe Francoeur has the ability to make contact like Vlad.

I am not a Braves fan nor have I seen much of Francoeur play but from the highlights he seems to have great ability to hit the ball.

by jbg3004 on Aug 18, 2005 10:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Vlad
Vlad never hit < .314 in the minors and hit .360 with a .600+ SLG in AA at age 20. Francoeur hit .276 earlier this year in AA with a SLG less than .500.

Basically, if the Vlad comparison is that swinging at everything does not necessarily mean you will fail - then I'm OK with that.

But if you think b/c Vlad swings at everything and posts a .950 OPS that Francoeur can too - thats where I have a problem until Frency has more of a track record b/c his minor league #s don't come close to comparing to what Vladdy was doing at the same stage of his career. Vlad is a beast.

by natsfan2005 on Aug 18, 2005 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

VLAD
Yes all I am saying is that just because he swings at eveything does not mean he will fail.

I am in know way saying he will have the career Vlad has had.

Vlad is a once in a liftime player and it is not fair to put those expectations on any young player.

I once say Vlad at bat were they threw a pitch out to catch a base runner stealing, Vlad reached out and smacked it for a single up the middle. That is just amazing bat control to even make contact.

Francoeur definitely has a lot to prove and i would never recomment swinging at everything to a youngster but it does work for a select few.

by jbg3004 on Aug 18, 2005 11:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nomar
Is another player who swings at everything, though he didn't even start playing pro ball until he was 21 and didn't make it to the bigs until he was 23 so comparisons are tough.  He hit .295 in 105 A ball AB's at 21.  Then .267 in AA (513 AB's) the next year.  Finally in 1996 he hit .286 in a very brief stint in RK at 23 as well as .343 in 172 AAA ab's and .241 in 87 MLB AB's.  For the next 4 years he was one of the best 2 or 3 SS's in baseball, winning a couple batting titles (he never hit .357 or .372 in the minors) before his career started to derail due to injury (or potentially other factors).
Francoeur was a career .285/.333/.476 hitter before this year.  Nomar was a .289/.353/.471 hitter in the minors.  Nomar's plate dsicipline was certainly better in the minors, but considering the differenece in their ages  Ithink that's something which can at least partly be attributed to youth.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Aug 18, 2005 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Vlad Comparisons
Living in Atlanta and watching Francoeur has been very fun, and I have heard the Vlad comparisons several times.  Saying that Vlad does not let any pitches go is untrue, Vlad has consistently drawn about 60 walks a year throughout his major league career.  I really don't think Vlad and Francoeur are comparable players at all.

Francoeur is excellent defensively, but I have to agree he is probably not ready offensively long term.  Next year starting in right field, I expect Francoeur to post an OPS around .750, maybe lower, with a too low OBP

by miserlou on Aug 18, 2005 11:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comparisons
Yeah you can be successful while walking very little if you an extreme ability to make contact like a Vlad, Nomar, Gwynn, Ichiro. The thing is though as pointed out earlier there is nothing in his minor league career to suggest that Francoeur will hit for a high enough average over his career to balance out his lack of plate discipline. If his average goes below .300 he's suddenly an out machine.

by MindRevolution on Aug 18, 2005 9:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nomar
There was nothing in Nomar's minor league stats to suggest he'd hit .372.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Aug 19, 2005 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Counts
I've only seen 6-7 of Frenchy's at bats, and he didn't get to a 3-2 count on any of them.  That said, I did see an AB in which he got to 2-2 and fouled off a couple of good pitches.  

I'm too lazy to do the research - what's his P/PA right now?  

by sasquatch83 on Aug 19, 2005 10:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

3.32 p/pa
Which is Jose Guillen/Shea Hillenbrand territory.  Vlad sees 3.29.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Aug 19, 2005 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At long last...
the wait is over. The Padres intentionally walked him in the sunday night game a few minutes ago.

by BoydsOfSummer on Aug 21, 2005 11:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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