You're the GM! Colorado Rockies Edition
You're the GM! of the Colorado Rockies.
The following questions were submitted by reader DavidRoxFan17 in the suggestions thread. I thought they summarized the decisions that the Rockies have to make pretty clearly.
-Do you keep Todd Helton and trade Ryan Shealy, or trade Helton and keep Shealy?
-How long do you keep Atkins and his 7 homers at 3B? Do you push Stewart for a mid-season promotion next year (like Francoeur?)
-What do you do with Jeff Baker, with it appearing that Holliday and Hawpe have the OF corners? Or do Holliday and Harpe have the OF corners?
-Do you keep Bigbie in CF for next year, or give the job to Jeff Salazar, who hasnt shown much since his promotion to AA last year, and is struggling at AAA?
-What is to be become of Jason Young? One moment, he will have a dominate streak, then the next, he will struggle (like he has his last 3, before that was doing well).
-Do you give Chin-Hui Tsao the closers job when he returns, or allow Fuentes to keep the job?
On the macro level, is there a particular strategy that you need to adopt to succeed in Coors Field long-term?
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Not a colorado expert but
-Can't be an all rookie team and hope to win, hopefully you can outslug them eventually.
Atkins, Rest of the year, every 5th day give someone else back to back starts at the position.
Bigbie isn't a long term solution, if you got money to spend, get some cheap power hitter that can strive at coors (cruz jr?, sosa might be available)
Jason Young, Pray, or try to get someone to overpay.
Fuentes keeps.
Move the fences back to Salt Lake city? (Why haven't they moved the fences yet?)
by Justise on Aug 16, 2005 2:23 PM EDT 0 recs
Is Helton moveable?
Otherwise I can not figure COL out.
by novaoakland on Aug 16, 2005 2:43 PM EDT 0 recs
Tough
2.) I keep Atkins at 3B until Baker or Macri is ready. Are there still questions about Stewart's defense? Plus, even discounting his early struggles due to injury, he hasn't exactly torn up a hitters league.
3.) I wouldn't say Holliday or Hawpe have the OF corners locked up
4.) I wouldn't put much stock in Young as a starter, I might see what he can do in long relief.
5.) Fuentes keeps his job based on the don't mess with success principal. If Tsao works out, you have two good relievers to use as necessary.
Long term strategy? My goal would be to turn the games in softball games. When acquiring players, I would look for players whose weaknesses can be ameliorated by Coors [say Preston Wilson or Mike Cameron], instead of players whose weaknesses aren't affected [say Juan Pierre].
From a player development standpoint, I would be more inclined to overlook strikeout problems and go for more athletic player. My goal would be to start 3 CF's.
From a pitching standpoint, I would try to limit the starters to 180 innings or so. I doubt any specific type of pitcher will be successful long-term at coors - the team would also need several relievers that can pitch long relief. I would experiment [especially at AAA CS] with having pitchers start half the year and relieve half the year to limit total innings.
by irwin on Aug 16, 2005 2:47 PM EDT 0 recs
Three CFs
I never could figure out why they signed Benny Agbayani several years ago and what they were going to do with him. Unless they wanted minor-league filler, that was one guy who never stood a chance of accomplishing anything in that huge pasture.
by Flynn Blake on
Aug 16, 2005 4:17 PM EDT
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3 CF's
While there's going to be a lot of balls flying over the wall, it's critical for the sake of the Rockies pitching staff to minimize extra base hits whenever possible. Seattle minimized extra-base hits extremely well in 2001 which help lead them to winning 116 games, making replacement-level pitchers like Aaron Sele and Ryan Franklin look spectacular. Circa 2004, when they scrapped the defense-first strategy, Franklin went 4-16 and the team lost 99 games.
Minimizing extra bases will definitely improve their winning percentage.
by overmanb on
Aug 17, 2005 4:09 PM EDT
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Baseball Cannot Succeed a Mile High
You just can't. It is a sad situation as the people love the team and the park is great, but realistically, your staff just cannot last and keep it going. It takes too much of a toll physically and they literally have to change their pitching styles home and away.
You cannot move the fences back further as they are already pretty far back. It should be noted that US Cellular Field, Wrigley Field, and Bank One are all higher on the list of park factors in terms of homeruns only this year. The fences being too far back allow so many singles drop in that should be outs since the oufielders have to parol more ground.
In the end, I doubt there will be a succesful franchise there because it just messes with their pitchers way too much. Maybe if they put together the perfect Mile High staff, they have a shot and though they have made the playoffs before, that playoff team was amazing offensively.
by themetros on Aug 16, 2005 2:57 PM EDT 0 recs
Coors
The major problem is the effect of altitude on the player thru 162 games. If the team is willing to spend a million dollars on a Desi Releford or a Dustan Mohr, then why couldn't they throw a couple bucks at some smart scientists in oder to come up with some legal ways to help the players through the season. The Olympic training center is right down the street from Denver and they have all kinds of info on the affects of high alititude training. That would be a nice place to start.
mark
www.roxhead.com
by roxhead on
Aug 17, 2005 3:25 PM EDT
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The only thing that "worked"...
I think you have to move Helton. They've got next to nothing around him that is ready, or even near ready, so sitting on Helton during this period is a waste of money (from a competitive standpoint, but I'm sure he puts butts in the seats, so it's not a complete waste from a business standpoint).
atkins' homer total isn't such a problem, as long as the team is banging them out enough. If he can push his OBA closer to 400, then he's ok.
Baker, Holliday, Hawpe, Bigbie, none of these guys seem to have franchise player potential, so in the long term, I'm not sure it matters.
Anyway, I'd move anyone you can right now, Helton, Jason Young, whoever. Get bats coming back. Be patient with Stewart, Young, and whoever. Try to get back to the old slugging days of Helton, Bichette, Castilla and Walker
by beastball on Aug 16, 2005 2:59 PM EDT 0 recs
here it goes
Atkins stays and keeps the position warm for Stewart. And Atkins learns to play LF as he is a much better hitter than Holliday. Stewart starts next year in AA and comes up for good at the AS break.
Baker, Holliday, Hawpe, Piedra, etc. can all go in trades or maintain back-up roles.
Quintanilla plays 2B next year and Barmes holds down SS until Nelson is ready. Closser catches with Ianetta coming in '07.
Young will never amount to anything in this environment. Tsao will pitch in a set up role as Fuentes has found a way to close in the Rocky Mountains.
As for an organizational change in strategy, here's what I would do:
- move the fences IN and grow the grass HIGH. Let the HR's fly out like they always do, but take away the singles and gappers as there is too much ground to cover and the IF plays like astro-turf. 330 down the lines, 375 gaps, and 400 in center. A "Wrigley" cut on the IF grass.
- invest almost nothing in starting pitching. When Kevin Ritz and Shawn Estes are about as good as it ever got in Coors, sign lots of guys in similar parts of their career. Find FA's and non-tender guys to go 5 or 6 with 3-4 ER.
- build a massive, position player oriented farm system. Get Helton's or Stewart's at every position to outslug and outscore teams in Coors and away from Coors. Spend heavily in free agents as I would build a premium position player team.
- focus on the bullpen--find the guys like Steve Reed and Fuentes who can pitch in Coors. And then load up on 'em.
- pray that the rest of the division remains as crappy as it is today.
by So Cal Bob on Aug 16, 2005 3:04 PM EDT 0 recs
totally agree
by DavidWrightismyGod on
Aug 16, 2005 5:17 PM EDT
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Rockies
Push Stewart. If Atkins can't hit in Coors, he just can't hit. Try out Baker at 3B and see how he does - it can't be worse than Atkins.
You can't promote a guy that's struggling. Bigbie stays in CF for lack of another option.
Tsao moves to setup a la Guillermo Mota.
Macro level - if pitching at a high altitude is tiring on your pitchers, employ a 6-man rotation. This will give the pitchers more time to recover and last throughout the year. Otherwise, expand your bullpen and plan on your starters going no more than 4/5 innings every time out. Final straw is to try to convince the owners to retrofit Coors with a pressurized dome.
by lenred on Aug 16, 2005 3:29 PM EDT 0 recs
Trade Francis
To that end, Jeff Francis is a luxury the Rockies can't afford. Although he's pitched better at Coors so far than on the road, that's probably an anamoly. They need to deal him before Coors messes with his head and his trade value goes down. Francis should yield 1 or 2 high-OBP, good power types.
Other than that, just try to concentrate on pitchers who throw strikes. Walks are deadly at Coors, moreso than other places. Get hitters that draw them, and pitchers that avoid them.
by Steve F on Aug 16, 2005 3:29 PM EDT 0 recs
Here Goes
On Atkins same as Sheely. He's an ok player who looks better because of the Coors effect. Trade him to somoeone for a real prospect or some pitching. Baker had adequately fill the position until Stewart is ready, then flip Baker like you did Atkins. In fact the Rockies should try to take advantage more often of trading mediocre players who's stats are inflated in Coors. Most teams are smart enough to figure it out, but there will always be Bowden's out there who won't figure it out.
I'm not sure of a sure fire strategy in Coors, but I think you certainly need some good defensive outfielders. The 3 centerfielder suggestion is a good one, but not Pierre centerfielders. You need outfielders who cover a lot of groung, but can also take advantage of Coors like a Mike Cameron. The Rocks need to build around real hitters. Guys like Helton and Stewart who hit for power and get on base. Stay away from Vinnie Castilla's who look good in Coors, but kill you on the road.
Is part of the problem with Rockie's hitters the fact that on a long homestand they get used to breaking balls that don't have much break, then head out on the road where all of a sudden curves and sliders have a lot of bite? I know Coors is a good hitters park, but some of the home/road splits are just incredible. Has to be something more here.
As for pitching keep working with the young guys. I'm not sure a certain style of pitching is whats needed. I know the Rocks have tried change-up pitchers or sinkerballers. Maybe just focus on pitchers who throw strikes. All pitchers are going to give up homers in Coors, but they've got to pound it into their pitchers heads to not give up a lot of walks. Much better to give up 2 or 3 solo shots than a couple of 3 run homers. It's a tough situation, but it can be solved. It's going to maybe take some thinking out of the box though.
by eastin on Aug 16, 2005 3:32 PM EDT 0 recs
Rox
Todd Helton's trade value may not be as high as the organization thinks due to his contract and his sudden decline in numbers. This decline will undoubtedly be linked to steroid use without any proof due to the timing involved. This should open the door for a deal involving Shealy to help bolster their pitching staff. This deal would most likely be to an American League club to maximize Shealy's bat and minimize his time on the field due to his poor movement.
Atkins can stay at 3B until Ian Stewart moves him out of the lineup. There is no rush on moving Atkins or pushing Stewart because the process of putting a winning team on the field will take more than the 2006 season.
It doesn't make sense to lock down the corner outfield spots at this point. Hawpe and Holliday appear to have an inside track but competition from Baker and the countless others that have logged innings over the last two seasons should improve the overall production out of the corner outfield spots.
Bigbie appears to be the winner by default at this point. He could be involved in a deal with the Red Sox in the offseason due to Epstein's man crush on him that almost landed the Rox Shoppach at the trade deadline. Barmes may be an option as well once Tulo, Nelson, or even Quintanilla provides the proper defense at SS.
Young will continue to be a wild card. He may require an extended opportunity for management to make a decision on his future. This will have to fall in line with a seemingly dismal 2006 that is awaiting the club.
Tsao shouldn't be handed the closers role but should be given the opportunity to set up at the very least. Fuentes has done a good enough job to retain the role until it is earned by another reliever or at a point in which he is no longer effective.
by riktermiller on Aug 16, 2005 4:10 PM EDT 0 recs
Hmm
A Hardball Times article (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/winning-in-extreme-environments/) discusses playing in extreme environments, and while it's not exactly conclusive, I'm pretty sure moving the fences in isn't an option either.
I like the idea of looking for toolsy outfielders. I like the idea of pushing Ian Stewart. I'd keep Helton, if only because I don't think I can get good value for him.
But I think the Rockies should definitely invest in pitchers. And I think they should also revise their usage strategy.
I personally think there is a way to fix pitchers - don't let them pitch in both environments.
While obviously you can't have a road staff and a home staff, why couldn't you take a guy like Francis who only pitches well in Colorado, give him some extra throwing time in Colorado, and designate him a Colorado only pitcher?
It would be like a different version of the LOOGY - instead of a lefty one out specialist, try to make a specialist who only excels at high altitude. Also designate a pitcher a road specialist.
12 or 13 man pitching staffs are ridiculous anyway - why not try to experiment a little?
1 Coors starter, 1 road starter, 4 other starters, 2 lefty relievers, 2 righty relievers, 1 setup man, 1 closer
Of course, all this is next to impossible due to scheduling, but what if someone could work it out on the schedule? Would it help solve the Coors effect?
by sasquatch83 on Aug 16, 2005 4:11 PM EDT 0 recs
In Order
- If you can find a taker for Helton you have to move him. I doubt he's movable though.
- Atkins was never going to be anything more than a temp anyway. Leave him there and hope he gets hot enough to increase his trade value before Stewart's ready. There's no reason to rush Stewart -- if he's got nothing left to prove next July bring him up, but there's no sense having a set timetable right now.
- Holliday is also a temp. If Baker can handle LF, great, but he also seems more like trade bait to me provided Stewart pans out (and I think he will).
- Bigbie is not a CF, especially in Coors. He can be packaged up with one of the 3B if necessary, but he seems like a better LF fit to me. Honestly, a healthy Preston Wilson was almost the prototype for a Rockies CF (assuming you can't find the next Willie Mays somewhere) -- good speed, defense and power, and the holes in his swing are masked by the park. I'd target Chris Young in an old fashioned challenge trade -- Kenny Williams seems inclined to part with him in the right deal, so maybe a Baker for Young swap is doable.
- Young's just a guy at this point. A Rockies GM can't afford to get too attached to any pitcher -- not Jason Young, not Tsao, not even Francis. I think the ideal staff for the Rox would be five starters, five swingmen and two short relievers. Fuentes and Tsao can fill the last roles well enough. Which one closes only matters if you're trying to boost their trade value.
by ESiegrist on Aug 16, 2005 4:34 PM EDT 0 recs
First things first
After that is settled I would build the team in the following manner:
- Trade Todd Helton, paying up to 60% of his salary, to the Mets for Mike Cameron, Aaron Heilman, and a low level prospect.
- Sign Jacque Jones for 3 years and $19.5 million
I like the idea of three CF's roaming the outfield, but with Cameron in CF and Jones in RF, we'll get by with Matt Holliday in LF. Improving defense is the long term goal. College pitchers and athletic high schoolers would be important to the future. Drafting "toolsy" players that can run, field, and throw is important, but the players also need to have the fundamentals to bunt, hit and run, and play small ball.
That is the major change I make. If you get a dome or move the team, you change the gameplan. I leave the fences where they are and turn Coors into a pitchers park.
Youngsters like Stewart, Baker, Shealy, Barmes, Hawpe, Closser, Seth Smith, Iannetta, Atkins, etc. get a chance to prove themselves over the next three years. Any of them that can play above average to great D and can hit .265 get a chance to stay. Anyone that can't play D gets moved on for pitching prospects, regardless of hitting ability(Unless one of them is the next Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, or David Ortiz).
Until the conditions are regulated, a six man rotation should be enforced. Francis, Jennings, Cook, Wright, Day, and Heilman fill the rotation. I would keep them limited to 5-6 innings per start, and have 4 long men in pen each ready to pitch 3-4 every three days. Add Tsao and Fuentes as co-closers, giving each of them 2-3 days as closer than an equal amount of rest. That should keep all the arms fresh for the course of a season.
Once the team is moved or the dome is added, the farm system should be stocked with multiple high level prospects and the return to "normal" baseball begins. A conventional pitching staff, above average D, situational hitting, and solid team play would be the calling card of this franchise.
by gatling on Aug 16, 2005 7:32 PM EDT 0 recs
Enough of the gimmicks.
Name one pitcher who was a genuine, ace starting pitcher whose career was destroyed by playing at Coors Field. Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle were not aces. In fact, name one true ace starting pitcher who has ever played for the Rockies. You can't.
How exactly does switching to a six-man rotation help the Rockies? Giving the starting pitchers an extra day so that they won't be as sharp when they take the mound? The Rockies really should be run like any other major-league ballclub. Coors Field can give average hitters good stats; the problem is that the same thing tends to happen to opposing hitters when they come to Coors Field, and the average hitters become just that when they play on the road. Moving the fences back would serve to wear out the outfielders even more than they already are by forcing them to cover even more ground.
I keep Helton and trade Shealy. Shealy is going to be a good hitter, but the whole point of trades is to fill holes. Helton is still a very good major league player who isn't getting pitches to hit because, well, teams would much rather pitch to Garrett Atkins than Todd Helton. Not to mention, I'm not exactly fond of the idea of running a team out there where the oldest everyday player, Brad Hawpe, will be 26 on opening day 2006, with a little more than a year of major league experience under his belt.
I see what I can get out of Baker before I push Stewart -- remember, he's closer to being major-league ready, and even had a cup of coffee with the big league club in April. I don't see Stewart being in Colorado before 2007, though he could be a September callup next season.
Holliday and Hawpe do have the corner spots locked down for next season at least. I give Baker a shot in spring training at third base next season, and see what I can get out of him in a trade if it's clear that Atkins is the guy for next season.
Bigbie will have some trouble covering center field at Coors, but I'm not that high on Salazar. Realize that the Rockies have other options there -- Cory Sullivan, Tony Miller (who can hit for some power; statheads love him.)
At the very least, I give Jason Young an audition for the #5 starter in 2006. I'd probably give him a callup this season and see what he can do. It's not like the Rockies are going anywhere.
If and when Tsao is healthy, I'd move him into the eighth-inning role and keep Fuentes as the closer until Tsao shows me that things should be otherwise. Fuentes has been good in that role this season, and it's my opinion that you shouldn't mess with a good thing.
The only "gimmick" I can think of, and it's really not a gimmick, would be to move the triple-A and low-A franchises. The last thing the Rockies need is for their minor-league clubs to be playing in hitter-friendly ballparks, where hitters can develop bad habits that often won't show up in their stats and the pitchers lose confidence due to high ERA's and homer rates.
by Tcs5384 on Aug 16, 2005 9:03 PM EDT 0 recs
Not a Rox fan, but...
Out of curiosity, after reading this fellow's challenge to name an ace who got ruined at Coors, I went out and did a little sampling. Here is the combined line of Randy Johnson, Jason Schmidt, Roy Oswalt, Mark Prior and Tom Glavine at Coors Field between 2002-2004 (Thanks to ESPN's splits)
100.2 IP, 30 ER, 2.68 ERA, 98:22 K:BB, 1.06 WHIP
Talent is the answer. Todd Helton has been the only bonafide star there for quite some time, consistently surrounded by mediocrity. The so-called 'Coors Effect' has simply masked this fact, making any number of mediocre players appear to be above-average (e.g. Castilla, Bichette, Hammonds, Neifi, EY, even an aging Larry Walker).
That said, I actually DO think it is probably more realistic to concentrate on putting together a superlative offense. If you must spend on free agents, get bonafide mashers. Unfortunately, the rediculous Helton contract, combined with whatever money is still owed to Hampton/Neagle/Preston/CJ will probably severely limit them.
However, at the end of the day, if I'm the GM, I don't waste a lot of time thinking about the altitude. Any time spent researching that problem is time/energy/resources removed from the problem at hand: Talent evaluation and development.
by superpriebe on
Aug 17, 2005 12:58 AM EDT
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Thanks.
Fortunately, Wilson, CJ, Hampton, and Neagle all come off the books this season, so the team will finally have some money to spend. Helton's contract was not ridiculous until this season, and you can certainly make an argument that he's having such a poor season (by his standards, anyway) because he's surrounded by mediocrity and thus isn't seeing pitches to hit; he has an OBP over .400 despite batting under .300 for much of the season.
Your stats about the aces are good, though to play devil's advocate for a bit none of those guys ever played a full season at Coors. The altitude certainly hinders the Rockies a bit in acquiring premium starting pitching, so that's something that needs to be developed from within (and the Rockies don't really have a lot of guys that I'm excited about, particularly in the high minors.)
by Tcs5384 on
Aug 17, 2005 7:59 AM EDT
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go look at the aces
I disagree that Hampton was not an ace. He certainly was before coming to Colorado and Daryl Kile was an ace as well.
It's certainly a talent problem, but it's a "Home Field Effect" problem too that lingers over a whole season. If you don't acknowledge that dilemma too, then it's just plain foolish.
by So Cal Bob on
Aug 17, 2005 12:20 PM EDT
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Hampton
I have no idea to whom you're referring on the Blake Street Bombers; the guys from 1995-98 look little different from the guys the Rockies trot out every five days now. The best pitchers in that bunch were Billy Swift (one really good season in San Francisco, but a work-a-day guy most of his career) and Darryl Kile (too many walks.) The 1995 team that went to the playoffs had a starting rotation of Kevin Ritz, Swift, Marvin Freeman, Armando Reynoso, and Bryan Rekar. They got Bret Saberhagen late in the season.
by Tcs5384 on
Aug 17, 2005 5:47 PM EDT
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we obviously disagree
My other point was to look back at the '96-'99 teams and view how the aces of that period fared pitching against a great hitting team in Coors. To use the stats of aces today when the Rox trot a bunch of crap makes no sense. To use numbers of aces pitching in Coors today is not a solid argument because of their lousy team.
by So Cal Bob on
Aug 17, 2005 7:12 PM EDT
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Obviously
Maddux, etc. have been pitching for a while and probably pitched at Coors during the '96-'99 period.
by Tcs5384 on
Aug 17, 2005 7:51 PM EDT
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Word to the Wise
Roe is a 6'6 slender/lanky, long framed 18 year old with a lively FB to go along with a very sharp breaking ball. He is very mature for his age and could have been drafted as a SS out of high school. Height and frame allow him a lot of room to fill out physically. Very poised, athletic. I've seen him pitch on several occasions at Lafayette HS in Lexington. FB touched low to mid 90's with armside run.
Patience is the key with Roe. Sky is the limit. Hard to project due to age and physical immaturity.
by Grind4Mine on Aug 16, 2005 11:42 PM EDT 0 recs
"Other" Options
While alot of the above ideas make general sense, the single biggest problem the Rockies face is not lack of talent or Coors Field. Yes, they need more talent, and they are growing some. Yes, Coors Field is unique, but both teams have to play there. What both teams DON'T have to do, is repeatedly transition from high altitude to sea level and back and forth.
Every time the Rockies hitters go on the road, it takes them several games to adjust to the sharper breaking pitches and thicker air that doesn't carry as well. Every time the Rockies pitchers come home to Coors Field, they have to live with the fact that their pitches don't have the same movement as on the road. They get maybe 1-3 starts to try and adjust. It often can't be done. Of course, when you add in the confidence factor that most players perform better when their confidence is high, and the constant changes hammer away at a players confidence, it snowballs. While a player may be able to overcome this occasionally in any given situation, overall it wears you down, and in the long run, the constant adjusting just can't be consistently done. MANY veteran visiting players have commented that they are glad they don't have to go to Coors but once or twice a year for this very reason. The transition messes you up.
There have been a couple solutions proposed to address the altitude adjustment problem, but they are controversial and/or expensive.
- Use a dead ball. Not popular as it alters the game. Oddly enough the humidor for the balls was banned despite the fact that it was actually effective and it only made the humidity for storing the balls the same as sea level (not sure what the "altering" part of that was but....)
- Move in the fences AND raise them up. Put up Fenway type walls or screens. Reduce the number of singles and doubles by moving in the walls. Reduce homers by making all those line drives be singles and doubles. Unfortunately, this is apparently expensive to make the alterations, and expensive to losing various seats and revenue due to the alterations.
- Building an entire underground hyperbaric facility like the Astrodome or Metrodome. The entire facility would be pressurized to be the same as sea level. The idea would be that before the Rockies go on the road, they can use this facility to adjust to sea level. Then they don't have to use the regular 3-4 games to adjust. They can "hit the ground/road running." Of course the starting pitchers scheduled to pitch at altitude come back a few days early to adjust before they start. This idea has actually gotten serious consideration by ownership but it will cost about $300 million to build it. Ownership hasn't decided to bite the bullet on that one yet.
by gb5hof on Aug 16, 2005 11:58 PM EDT 0 recs
Winning at altitude
-I'd trade Helton if I could get fair value for his talent, but I don't think it's happening. Any deal involving him would basically be us paying him to beat us every year. So Helton goes, Shealy gets traded for a decent young pitcher.
-Atkins is fine right now. There's no way we'll be playing games of consequence for 3 years anyway. I'll let Stewart dictate his own promotional pace; if he rocks at every stop, he gets promoted quickly, if not, then more slowly. No sense rushing him.
-As with Atkins, Bigbie's fine for now. I'm not hugely impressed with Salazar. He figures things out I'll give him a job over Bigbie, but not until then.
-I'll wait for Young to get on another hot streak and trade him for a live arm or toolsy 16 year old.
-Tsao goes to AA for a bit to get his mechanics and confidence in order(or as much so as can be reasonably expected). After that, he goes into low-leverage innings until he proves he can handle that, then gradually give him more important situations. He's still the closer of the not-too-distant future, but as long as Fuentes is doing well there's no sense rushing Tsao back into a high-leverage role.
The big picture:
I'd focus on sucking pretty thoroughly for the next few years. Seriously, play the low-cost, medium-upside guys on hand, the Atkinses and Hawpes we already have around, don't try to resign anyone, and pile up a bunch of high draft picks. I'd use all the top ones to draft a slew of good hitters, like Helton, who'll be above-average hitters at sea level as well as at altitude. Guys who have a lot of range in the outfield(or could be moved there, a la the Uptons) would be preferred, but I'd just make sure to grab a bunch of disciplined hitters who paste everything in the zone(basically I want Sheffield types instead of Adam Dunn types. My theory is that take-and-rake guys are more thrown out of whack by going from altitude to sea level than line drive hitters). Stewart, Nelson, and Tulowitzki are a good start, in line with what I'm looking for.
In the mid-later rounds I'd focus primarily on high-upside arms from every level. It wouldn't be as set in stone as taking hitters in the first round, but the "quality" approach to developing pitchers hasn't worked yet(Young, Francis to date), it's time to try "quantity." I can also package hitting prospects to bring in young studly arms that are closer to if not in the majors.
I don't entirely agree with the philosophy advocated by some of just trotting out a bunch of minimum-wage warm bodies to pitch, loading up on offense, and trying to win every game 12-10, but I think it's important to press the advantage given to us by our ballpark instead of trying to work against it. Defense is a plus, and an outfield of Beltran types would be ideal, but I don't think it's worth it to go after guys like Jaque Jones for the defense. I want a team that can be above average offensively on the road first and foremost. On the pitching side, I want quality starters, but it's not worth spending high draft picks or huge free agent contracts to do it. I'll try to get them through my own development system as I described before. The bullpen needs to be run on the cheap, and must also be free of specialists. Everyone has to be able to pitch over an inning at a time, and if possible it'd be nice to have two swingmen around to compensate for short starts, so as to counteract the extra fatigue caused by playing at altitude. The idea is to only use 3 or fewer total pitchers in any game.
On the general development front, I'd set up my minor league affiliations such that Rookie through AA levels are in neutral or slight pitchers' parks and leagues, with AAA staying in Colo. Springs. I'd generally promote hitters straight from AA to the majors, while making every pitcher go to AAA first(barring emergency) to get used to pitching at altitude.
by delomir on Aug 17, 2005 12:48 AM EDT 0 recs
Pitching at Coors.
Breaking balls just don't break and sinkers just don't sink in that thin, dry air. On the other hand, velocity and location should not be affected at all.
I knew when they signed them that Kile and Hampton would be disasters. They both had great curveballs, a practically useless pitch in Coors.
If they want to do something in the FA market to jump start the team, AJ Burnett, Jarrod Washburn, and Brett Tomko would be good investments.
by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 17, 2005 2:31 AM EDT 0 recs
Hang on here..
'00 Hampton(NYM): 218.2IP, 151/99 K/BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (roughly)
'97 Kile (HOU): 255.2IP, 205/94 K/BB, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP (roughly)
Are you telling me that if you could sign either of those guys, you wouldn't consider them aces or #1 pitchers??
I'm pretty sure we won't be seeing Clemens, Oswalt, Pedro or RJ (in their prime) pitching 1/2 their starts in Coors, but if they did something tells me they'd turn out the way Kile and Hampton did. Neagle was just a terrible signing all-around. He's a #4 in his prime, at best. They were overpaying just to get pitchers there.
But the most inaccurate statement was saying "Washburn and Tomko would be good investments." I'm sorry, but a guy with a 4.67 ERA/1.4 WHIP and GB/FB ratio of 1/1, that has been demoted to the bullpen and sports a 5.38 road ERA (Tomko) doesn't sound like a good investment.
Washburn has been on the DL more than the mound the past 3 years, is a flyball pitcher (career 0.73 GB/FB) and throws fewer K's than Gil Meche, Scott Elarton and Jason Jennings. (Sorry DrB, but I had to refute those suggestions.)
TCS was on the right track by saying that they haven't had the best talent, but they did sign 2 of the better pitchers in baseball (at the time) and neither one of them could really do anything at Coors. Surething HOF'ers are once in a rare, but when you get a chance to sign some of the best and they don't work out, you have to look at other solutions.
6-man rotations to allow guys adequate time to recover and save their energy for the whole season, and adding a dome are about the only places left to turn for their pitchers. You could turn to guys that might not give up a ton of flyballs (Webb, Westbrook, Hudson, Halladay, Lowe, Mulder), but then you go back to relying on sinkerball pitchers, and we know how well that turned out for Hampton.
by lenred on Aug 17, 2005 12:47 PM EDT 0 recs
Hampton and Kile
Rockies pitchers will always have high ERA's due to a number of factors. But I don't see anybody clamoring to alter the parks in Cincinnati, Texas, or Philadelphia. Heck, the Phillies have put together a pretty solid pitching staff despite having one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.
by Tcs5384 on
Aug 17, 2005 5:54 PM EDT
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Hindsight is 20/20
If you have no pitching and are an infant ballclub, you have to sign it. It's not like they were in a position to go and trade prospects to get a Pedro or Kevin Brown. They tried what they thought would work & greatly overpaid for what appeared to be the best pitcher available at the time. Just looking at the top 20 pitchers (in ERA) from 2000 that were available as free agents, you had Mussina and Hampton. Hampton sure seemed like a good choice at the time since the Yankees were going to sign Mussina no matter what. Not $120 million worth of a good choice, but what else were they going to get?
I don't think people know yet what to make of the ballparks in Cincy or Philly as the stadiums are so new. The one in Cincy is curious because it has interesting air currents coming off the river. Cincy is slightly different than Colorado in that their biggest pitching acquisitions have been Ramon Ortiz, Paul Wilson and Eric Milton. Not exactly the best pitchers in baseball, even on the level of Hampton in '00.
Between Cincy and Colorado, if you can figure out one, you might be able to figure out the other. Until then, I still say 6-man rotation and dome are the best options.
by lenred on
Aug 18, 2005 10:48 AM EDT
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Basic Physics
What doesn't change at altitude is velocity and location. In fact, you might find an extra 1 or 2 MPH at altitude because resistance is what slows a pitched ball down. You need pitchers with great velocity. Tell them to forget about their breaking balls and sinkers and practice their changeups and location, location, location.
I think it's pretty obvious why Burnett would do well at Coors. His 98 MPH heater becomes a 100 MPH heater there.
Washburn never throws breaking balls. His whole game is altering speeds and location. He's not going to do any better at Coors, but the dropoff will be a lot less than for a sinkerballer or a guy who depends on breaking balls. Who cares if you give up a few solo HR's in Coors anyway?
As for Tomko, he also throws about 80% fastballs. Again, he won't do better at Coors, but the dropoff will be less than other pitchers. A 4.67 ERA may not look to good at SBC park, but it doesn't look too bad at Coors now, does it?
So, I stand by my premise and your arguments in no way refute it.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Aug 17, 2005 11:16 PM EDT
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ok
by lenred on
Aug 18, 2005 10:56 AM EDT
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a rotation
Burnett
Oswalt
Prior
Randy
Zambrano
those are the type of guys that the Rockies need...
by DavidRoxFan17 on
Aug 18, 2005 1:43 PM EDT
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well...
Strong armed kids. One's like we have coming up through our system now: Morillo, Jimenez, Morales, Deduno, Lindsay, Roe, etc.
I am not saying you have to have those 5. It was a comparison to similar pitchers needed.
David
by DavidRoxFan17 on
Aug 18, 2005 6:41 PM EDT
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It's hard enough for teams
by gatling on
Aug 18, 2005 6:57 PM EDT
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Of course...
That is what the Rockies need to win long term. If they dont, they wont win. Its not that it is easy to develop those guys, but it needs to be done.
David
by DavidRoxFan17 on
Aug 18, 2005 10:11 PM EDT
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Willis and Penny weren't brought up in the
by gatling on
Aug 18, 2005 11:48 PM EDT
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I know
I was just using an example of how a dominate rotation can be built.
David
by DavidRoxFan17 on
Aug 19, 2005 2:52 AM EDT
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Burnett
by DrBGiantsfan on
Aug 18, 2005 10:05 PM EDT
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Rox
A. Reincarnate a new version of the Blake Street bombers. These hitters should not only be bashers, but they must steal a base or two, also.
B. Have a serviceable starting rotation that is developed from the farm system. Nothing spectacular needed. Size is important, though... big kids that can handle the wear and tear of 81 games at Coors.
C. Kick "A" bullpen. The most important element for success in Coors is a good, deep bullpen. Sign as many guys as you can.. righty, lefty, don't matter.
The idea of a pressurized dome is whacky and fun but anyone who has lived in Colorado and seen games in Coors would never allow such a prank. The views and the weather in Denver in the summertime are incredible.
The hyperbolic chamber idea is already in place for Olympic high altitude training in Colorado springs. It's a solid idea that should be explored more.
Player moves (I'm hesitant to trade players with our current GM in place and my following views reflect that)...
1. Todd Helton should stay but current ownership will probably push for a trade at some point. Keep Shealy around. Too bad for him but the Rox have control over him for a few years more. He'll just have to play AAA baseball for a while.
If you did move Shealy for prospects and some big spending eastern team wanted Helton bad enough to take on the contract, then you could move Garrett Atkins over to first, which solves that 3rd base logjam.
2. Atkins is a nice player with a good swing to all parts of the park. He is lacking power but that may come with time. Does he fit the "Bomber" need as mentioned above? No.
Jeff Baker is a Major League player in waiting. However, he may just have to play in AAA another year like Shealy. Again, too bad for him.
---Maybe O'Dowd could package Baker and Shealy for something, but again I don't trust O'Dowd to get a good return.
- Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe are the corner outfielders for the next ten years. And yes, they both fit the Bomber image mentioned above. Brad Hawpe is a future All-Star. The man just needs major league at bats. Holliday is a stud. Let him play, he may be a step below Hawpe when its all said and done, but he'll be a star here in Denver soon enough.
- Centerfield is a toughie. Probably a spot where a big bat free agent could be signed when the team is looking like its ready to contend (in 2008?). Until then, any of the players and scenarios mentioned in this forum is fine.
- Jason Young isn't worth the space to chat about. Just another AAA arm. Give him a token shot in spring next year, I guess.
- Tsao is too injury prone to count on. Stick him the bullpen where lots of bodies are needed. Fuentes looks like a keeper. Why mess with it?
by roxhead on Aug 17, 2005 1:16 PM EDT 0 recs
point 3?
If you want to build your team like the Blake St. Bombers, those aren't your guys.
Didn't you have Bichette and Walker?
by So Cal Bob on
Aug 17, 2005 1:45 PM EDT
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Counter point
Larry Walker was one of the best ball players in the game and if injuries wouldn't have dogged him, then he might have been considered right up there with the all time greats. Therefore, it's unfair to compare Hawpe with Walker.
Have you watched Holliday and Hawpe play? If so, then you wouldn't question the projection I made.
by roxhead on
Aug 17, 2005 2:35 PM EDT
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Over his career with the Rockies
by gatling on
Aug 17, 2005 2:48 PM EDT
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Holliday
Also, he is twice the fielder that Bichette was... even though I wouldn't say either player is or was average at best.
by roxhead on
Aug 17, 2005 3:01 PM EDT
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roxhead
These guys are no Walker and Bichette. If you want to hang your hat on that one, it's all on you.
by So Cal Bob on
Aug 17, 2005 4:25 PM EDT
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SoCalBob's right
Walker 1.172 OPS at Coors
Hawpe and Holliday are way off from these guys.
by gatling on
Aug 17, 2005 4:41 PM EDT
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please don't miss my point
by So Cal Bob on
Aug 17, 2005 4:55 PM EDT
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Wow..
There's noway you could compare them to Walker. There's noway to compare anyone in the system to Walker for he is a border line Hall of Famer.
Bichette's another story and I already made my point on that. Anyone who says that Holliday cant be as good or better than Bichette after only 700 at bats is just being stuborn and unrealistic.
All I'm saying in that the right way to go for the team is to have home run hitters with some speed on the bases and I believe Hawpe and Holliday will both develope into the type of players the Rox need to get there. In other words, those two spots are done. Time to worry about the other 5 or six spots in the field.
Yeah, sure it would be nice to put some already established guys out there but that just being stupid. You have to at some point say, "Hey, we are going with this group come hell or high water." Hawpe and Holliday should be two of that eight spot group.
by roxhead on
Aug 17, 2005 6:49 PM EDT
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You're Right
I think people are baffled as to why you'd think that's an indispensible building block for a successful franchise.
by ESiegrist on
Aug 17, 2005 7:35 PM EDT
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I read your post.
You compare them to the Blake Street Bombers, but the only one they come close to is Bichette, the guy I would put 4th behind Walker, Galarraga, and Castilla. Not a bad player, but not the best either.
by gatling on
Aug 17, 2005 7:44 PM EDT
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Can't argue
Conclusion... Both players will be playing in Coors for a long time, folks.
Another set of evidence can be found in the minors to support my projection about Holliday and Hawpe. Where are all the top outfield prospects getting the majority of the time in the field?
That's right... Centerfield.
Jeff Salazar, Tony miller, Joe Gaetti, Matthew Miller, and Dexter Fowler are all playing CF. The Rockie front office knows that the corner spots are taken, so the word is being sent down to work a select group in Center.
mark
www.roxhead.com
by roxhead on
Aug 17, 2005 8:17 PM EDT
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Fan bias
Nothing objective that they've accomplished has them pegged as anything special. Subjective scouting reports, similarly, don't tell the story of two guys who will be carrying the Rockies to glory with the might of their bats. Holliday especially looks like he'll become worthy of a starting job, but not good enough to be one of the top three or four hitters on a winning team. Of course, you might not even need to be a "winning" team to make the playoffs out of the West, but that's a different story.
by yeoldejaco on
Aug 17, 2005 8:49 PM EDT
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