Prospect Retro: Carlos Guillen

by John Sickels on Jul 21, 2005 12:25 PM EDT in News Comment 5 comments

Carlos Guillen

Carlos Guillen was signed by the Houston Astros as a free agent in 1992, out of Venezuela. Assigned to the Dominican Summer League in '93, he hit .250/.350/.393 in 18 games. That didn't mean anything, given the small sample size and level of competition. He was a good athlete but so are most of the guys in that league.

Guillen moved up to the Gulf Coast League in '95, hitting .295/.356/.429 in 30 games. Again, the sample was small, but the production was reasonably impressive, and he was starting to get noticed as a prospect. At this stage, he would have been something like a C+ or B- prospect. His main problem was an inability to stay healthy, bothered by knee and shoulder problems.

Another shoulder injury limited Guillen to just 29 games for Class A Quad City in 1996. But he was very impressive in those 29 games, hitting .330/.420/.492, showing improved production across the board as well as solid plate discipline. Grading retrospectively in a case like this is tough: we know how things turned out, and at the time Guillen was getting a lot of praise for his future potential, but the shoulder injury was of serious concern and it was unclear how it would impact his future. Grade B- or Grade B seems appropriate.

Promoted to Double-A Jackson in '97, Guillen struggled. He knocked 10 homers in 115 games, but hit just .254/.327/.377 overall. I gave him a Grade B in the '98 book, commenting positively on his youth and tools and cutting him some slack because of his injury history.

Guillen moved up to Triple-A in '98, hitting .291/.352/.457 in 100 games for New Orleans. He was traded to the Mariners in the Randy Johnson deal, and hit .333 in 10 games for Seattle down the stretch. I gave him a Grade B- in the '99 book, writing that I thought he would have a "pretty decent career" but might get off to a slow start and would need a patient manager.

He began '99 as Seattle's regular second baseman, but blew out his right anterior cruciate ligament and was limited to just 5 games. I didn't know what to make of him at this point. I thought the injuries were likely to inhibit his career and reduced his rating to Grade C+.

Guillen returned to hit .257/.324/.396 in 90 games for the Mariners in 2000. He put up similar numbers in '01, '02, and '03, looking like a decent, solid, but not spectacular player. He broke out after being traded to the Tigers, with excellent seasons in '04 and again this year.

Injuries hampered Guillen's development in the minor leagues. He was young for his levels, and put up good numbers in '95, '96, and '98, but I was never especially confident in how he was going to develop. I admit that I was taken aback by his huge step forward in '04. His career marks entering 2005:

Major League career: .277/.346/.421
Minor League career: .278/.350/.420

Virtually identical.

What do we expect in the future?

Comparable Players to Carlos Guillen, no actives listed.

Dickie Thon
Johnny Logan
Lyn Lary
Jeff Blauser
Gil McDougald
Don Money
Bill Doran
Jay Bell

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA list brings up guys like Roberto Alomar and Ryne Sandberg as possible comps as well. I'm not sure any of those really fit the direction that Guillen may be headed. Hell, I still basically don't know what to expect from him. Any ideas guys and gals?

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Robbie? Ryno?

While I like Guillen, I don't see either of them in his future. Alomar was already putting up gaudy numbers when he was 21, showing great plate discipline and speed.

Average-wise, Ryno makes a decent comparison, although I don't think Guillen will ever break 25 HR in a year. They also align pretty well when you look at things like K/BB, K/AB and BB/AB. Guillen does have good plate discipline, which will help him age better than someone like Julio Lugo will.

None of those comps really do it for me though - a couple of guys (Bell) were much less patient, a couple gone early . . . I think Guillen will put up better numbers than most of these guys.

If he can stay healthy (a big IF), he should put up pretty solid years. Nothing Hall-worthy, but definitely above league average.

by sasquatch83 on Jul 21, 2005 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

See Rich Aurilia

I tend to think Guillen will hit a little better than his first 3-4 years but never again repeat what he did last year. I think a .300 16/75 RBI type line for him could be expected much like Aurilia came back down to earth in 2002 after a career year in 2001. Not comparable players - just using as an example.

I think Guillen is going to be comparable to Edgar Renteria in terms of active SS's offensively. I know Baerga is at 2B and still technically active but his 5 or 6 year stretch in Clevland might be a good comparison as well. How about comps to Alan Trammell? Robin Yount?

by slickwdb on Jul 21, 2005 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Active Comp

If you put aside Guillen's injury history and just look at performance, Michael Young seems like the closest active comparable player to me.

Go ahead and shoot your mouth off, like it might kill the silence.

by ESiegrist on Jul 21, 2005 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

He had TB for most of a whole season [2001, I think], and the effects of that probably carried into the next year

by irwin on Jul 21, 2005 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

'94

Out of curiosity, what happened to Guillen in 1994? Was he hurt or something and missed the season?

If he stays healthy, I think Guillen has a couple more .300 BA/20 HR seasons in him if he stays healthy. With his prior health problems, he strikes me as a bit of a late bloomer. Michael Young works for me as a comp as well.

by delomir on Jul 22, 2005 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs