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Free Jonny Gomes

pondering the erstwhile D-Ray

Star-divide

Why is Jonny Gomes not playing in Tampa Bay?
Where does he fit into their plans?
What kind of defense does he play?
Can he play first base?
What kind of splits does he have?
What kind of MLB averages could a team expect in 2005 (assuming neutral park)?
What kind of offensive averages could a team expect in 2008 (age 27)?
What would it take to obtain him in trade?

Background: I am a Twins fan, looking for a DH and 4th/5th OF and possibly a back-up 1B.  I am disappointed in LeCroy and not willing to take on Sweeney.  Gomes looks to me as good as most of the alternatives in terms of offense (average, discipline, power), let alone price ( salary and talent given up).  Also, he might fit into future plans when Jones and/or Stewart are gone.

I was thinking of trading Boof Bonser for Jonny Gomes.  Is this a realistic trade?

0 recs  |  Comment 32 comments

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Kubel?
Does this mean you're not counting on Kubel to be able to replace Jones next year?  

by Gudy2Shoes on Jun 9, 2005 1:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Roto?
Is this for a Roto league or some kind of sim league?  Sadly, i don't see the Rays giving Gomes much of a shot any time soon.  They already gave his lineup spot to a 30yr old career minorleaguer in spite of the fact that Jonny was one of their best producers at the time.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jun 9, 2005 1:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Free Jonny Gomes
This is not for a Roto or sim league.  I'm just a GM-wannabe like some others on the board.

It seems Gomes should be starting in an OF corner or DH.  He appears to be a good and undervalued asset.  I know nothing about his defense or make-up.

I am certainly not counting on Kubel to replace Jacque Jones next year.  He might be able to replace Shannon Stewart next year -- the OF who should DH.  We have no assurance that Kubel can run the bases or play the field next year.  He will be coming off a year without picking up a bat.  Kubel may start the year in Rochester.

by lonestar on Jun 9, 2005 2:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Answers / hypothesis
Why is Jonny Gomes not playing in Tampa Bay? Presumably so they don't toll his arbitration clock, if rumors are true and Stu Sternberg is basically calling the shots at this point.

Where does he fit into their plans?  He should be the right handed power bat next season.  They're already spending money on Eduardo Perez for now, and they envision him having that same kind of role.

What kind of defense does he play?  Not bad really.  Not a great arm, above average range for a corner OF, doesn't botch easy plays much, can fill in in center in a pinch.

Can he play first base?  As far as I know, he never has.

What kind of splits does he have?  MUCH better against righties than lefties, but his walk rate is about equal against both.

What kind of MLB averages could a team expect in 2005 (assuming neutral park)? Depends on whether they platoon him.  As a full-time player, probably something in the .250/.350/.520 range.  If he's purely a platoon player, then more like .300/.400/.650.  He can really mash lefties.

What kind of offensive averages could a team expect in 2008 (age 27)?  Probably about the same.  It seems like he's taken a step forward with the batting average this year, but keep in mind that every season he's been a hot starter but his rate numbers drop considerably after the all-star break.

What would it take to obtain him in trade?  Hard to say at this point.  If I'm right about his future role with the team, they may actually not want to trade him.  If he's traded, it makes the most sense to package him with one of the other Rays' players on the block (Baez, Lugo, Huff) for them to get the other team to pick up more salary on whomever they're trading away.  However, pitching, catching and 3rd base prospects / young major leaguers are the Rays' areas of need.

by Brickhaus on Jun 9, 2005 2:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Correction
I meant to say much better against lefties than righties, not the other way around...

by Brickhaus on Jun 9, 2005 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey Brickhaus
Where you been hiding, I see you all over the internet but not at BtB, ha

by Marc Normandin on Jun 9, 2005 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Work...
Been really busy, so I have time to write in 3 minute spurts, but not time to actually write a full article :-/

I'll try to get something new up there soon...

by Brickhaus on Jun 9, 2005 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Brickhaus is right on the money.  The only thing is I think he will have a BA closer to .270.  Not major, but I think he'll have a little better batting average.

by Tyler on Jun 9, 2005 4:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gomes
Jhonny Gomes is Tim Salmon. Just look at his minor league numbers. They're mirror images.

Lou Pinellapee needs to be fired for putting himself in front of the team.

by Goodfella on Jun 9, 2005 5:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Salmon
His minor league numbers are identical.  That's remarkable.  He is one of the best prospects in baseball.  BA didn't rank him because the organization hasn't thought much of him, but he should be the Rays' future DH.  Baldelli, Crawford, Young, Gomes.  That's a really good OF.  If Upton and Bankston develop, like I'm almost sure they will, this team can compete by 2007, at the latest 2008.  With a couple good trades of guys like Huff and Baez bringing good pitching prospects; the Rays' could be on there way.  That is, if Sternburg takes over, and Lamar is fired.
Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jun 9, 2005 5:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

right
You're right on with Jhonny Gomes, Tyler.

I've been talking about the Tim Salmon comparison since before this season started.

by Goodfella on Jun 9, 2005 6:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I read that
From you a while back.  I looked it up and it really is uncanny how similar their numbers are.
Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jun 9, 2005 6:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gomes
Hope the Salmon thing is true, have seen Gomes live on a couple of his cups of coffee and was overmatched by fastballs high, of course small sample size as we like to say. Other thing if had value wouldn't they have traded him for someone as well.
I would like the Rays to give him a shot to see what he can do.
As far as the Abreu/Stocker thing it's not like they would have kept him any way with his salary, but maybe they would have received s/t in return.

by flajoe on Jun 9, 2005 6:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

True?
Jhonny Gomes' first 450 professional games and 1,600 at bats show a mirror image to Salmon's first 450 professional games and 1,600 at bats.

That should be enough to mitigate any floundering about whether Gomes is Salmon's equal.

Some team needs to call Tampa and take Gomes off their hands.  

by Goodfella on Jun 9, 2005 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Salary
Abreu wouldn't have commanded a huge salary when the trade happened.  Also, the Rays' were spending like crazy then.  They gave Stocker a 3 year 8 million dollar contract.  35 million to Wilson Alverez.  A bunch to Crime Dog, Canseco, Castillo, and Greg Vaughan.  They also gave 10.2 million dollar signing bonus to Matt White, largest ever.  Bobby Seay got 3 million.  None of his investments worked out(well Crime Dog wasn't bad, just no one else was any good).

Heck, they have money now, they just don't spend it.  Rumor I hear is Sternburg is in control of the money, and he won't invest anything until he gets his guy's in there, i.e. Lamar's gone.  I hear he's trying to basically force Namoli out.  Then hopefully the will become competitive.

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jun 9, 2005 7:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i'm just amused
... that so many people are calling him "jhonny" gomes. as far as i know only one person in the history of the universe has been named jhonny (i'm sure this is untrue, but ... i only know of one) and it's jhonny peralta of the indians.

this gomes is jonny gomes, which is also a slightly unusual spelling but not that unusual. in the strange universe of prospectheads, is jhonny now a more normal spelling than johnny? :)

question: is gomes so good a prospect that they need to worry about starting his arb clock? i don't think so. he seems to me like the kind of player that they can use now (while he is the 2nd-best hitter on the team) and then will probably be squeezed out of playing time once young/bankston/dukes are ready, with crawford and baldelli already in place.

by jpahk on Jun 9, 2005 7:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Right
Right....Johnny Gomes......Thanks.

Question: Do you really think Bankston and Dukes will outperform Gomes?

by Goodfella on Jun 9, 2005 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is a really good question
which deserves more than a glib answer.

Gomes:
Age 20, 291/392/597 for Princeton (R Appy)
Age 21, 276/431/572 for Bakersfield (A+ Cal)
Age 22, 249/348/441 for Orlando (AA Southern)
Age 23, 257/368/532 for Durham (AAA Int'l)
Age 24 (now) 340/470/715 for Durham (wow!)

Dukes:
Age 19, 245/338/366 for Charleston (A- Sally)
Age 20, 288/368/423 for Charleston
Age 20, 332/416/540 for Bakersfield
Age 21 (now) 291/351/472 for Montgomery (AA Southern)

Bankston:
Age 18, 301/346/569 for Princeton
Age 19, 256/346/405 for Charleston
Age 20, 289/390/513 for Charleston
Age 21 (now): see below

bankston repeated at charleston because they moved him from the outfield to 1B; as you can see, he didn't do badly the first time around but laid the smack down in his second year there. this year he missed some time at the start of the season with a wrist (i think?) injury, hit 387/513/629 (!) for a month in the cal league, and was called up to montgomery a week ago.

a direct comparison here is tough since these guys didn't spend the same age at the same level, but it looks to me like both dukes and bankston are a little bit ahead of where gomes was at the same age. whether they'll maintain the same level of production (or increase it) when they reach AAA and/or the majors is another question. but certainly from what we have seen so far, i think bankston is a wonderful prospect, better than gomes, and dukes is at least as good if he can harness his temper.

by jpahk on Jun 9, 2005 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i should perhaps add
that obviously what you see here is performance analysis only. i don't have much to add to the general wisdom on their "tools" or whatever. i think the consensus is that dukes has the most upside because of his athleticism but i wanted to focus on just their ability to hit thus far.

i also would like to add, as an A's fan, that it would be great to have outfield prospects like this. i'm not yet sold on ethier, and we have nobody else in the high minors doing anything at all. maybe next year putnam and robnett and herrera will be worth watching. oh, and i guess also buck.

by jpahk on Jun 9, 2005 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One more thing
Just to mention also -

Charleston is a severe pitchers park in a neutral league
Bakersfield is a neutral park in a hitters league
Montgomery appears to be a hitters park in a pitchers league, but I haven't seen any data; Orlando was also a hitters park
Durham is a severe hitters park in a neutral league

As for "Jhonny", that's the spanish spelling.  When he was playing Mexican winter league (which he dominated), the Mexican Newspapers kept reporting his name as Jhonny, so I think that's where the extra h came from...

by Brickhaus on Jun 10, 2005 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice
That's an excellent post. You've enlightened me. I didn't realize they were that good. Thanks.  

by Goodfella on Jun 9, 2005 10:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Dukes
Dukes has talent, but has a lot of problems.  I don't think he will pan out, not because of talent, but outside factors.  He has a lot of anger problems.  John said, "He makes Milton Bradley look calm."  He's been arrested for assult before.  I hope I'm wrong but that's how I see it.

I agree with the Bankston assesment.  He's the reason I'm advocating trading Huff.  Bankston's the future.  The Rays' will mash if they can keep their prospects together.

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jun 10, 2005 12:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I love Gomes and
if we want to talking about freeing somebody - the same can be said for Todd Linden.  

I said this once before as a joke but Gomes must have been the guy that told Schilling "this is why we lose 100 games," earlier in the year.  There is no other reasonable explanation as to why he is not getting a chance to play in the big show!

by slickwdb on Jun 10, 2005 8:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree
About the Schilling comment, I've thought the same thing many times.  Schilling and Piniella had their war of words at the end of April, Gomes last played on May 1.
I don't think starting Gomes' arbitration clock is much of a factor.  The Rays are absolutely loaded in the OF.  They've already got Baldelli and Crawford with the big club.  Gathright and Gomes at AAA, then Bankston, Dukes and Young in AA.  Even if you plug one of those guys in at 1B and one at DH, that's 7 guys for 5 positions

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jun 10, 2005 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade bait
To be used by a compitant GM.  Hopefully.
Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jun 10, 2005 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would hope so
Though from what I've heard, there doesn't seem to be much interest in him in a deal.  I guess he'll just have to keep crushing the ball.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Jun 10, 2005 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Organization
I talked to someone who works for the Rays' and he said Taylor was called up because he gives Lou more flexiblity playing in the NL.  He said Milkshake(Sanchez) will be DFA and Gomes will be up Monday.  I hope he's right.
Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jun 10, 2005 9:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Dukes
Isn't Dukes the guy who's been arrested like 3 times in the last year and small change?

by mrkupe on Jun 10, 2005 11:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yah
He's been arrest 3 times in the past year and a half.  One of those was dropped though.  Here's a link to a newspaper article right after he got drafted.  I gives a little insight into where he came from:

http://www.sptimes.com/2002/06/05/Columns/Draftee_chance_to_get.shtml

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jun 10, 2005 11:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

WOW
That Dukes fellow has had an up hill climb. Hopefully, he can iron things out and stay on the straight and narrow. Thanks for the link.

by Goodfella on Jun 11, 2005 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

more on gomes
gomes was profiled in BA's daily dish friday. here's what he had to say:

"I steal bases, I hit for a high average, I hit home runs, I play all three outfield positions, I DH," Gomes told the St. Petersburg Times. "Every time they send me down, they don't tell me anything to work on. I'm down here confused by the silence. I don't think I have anything to prove down here. The only thing I have to prove is being consistent in the big leagues. And it's hard to do that from here."

sad. i'm sure he's bummed about reggie taylor being recalled instead of him.

i'd like to believe the rays have a plan (as Tyler suggested) but i don't think they do. alex sanchez has been just about their best hitter this year; they won't discard him.

by jpahk on Jun 11, 2005 12:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sanchez
His hitting RAA is +7, but his fielding RAA is -4.  I can think of at least 4 games off the top of my head where Sanchez misplaying a ball to center cost the Rays the game.  That kind of thing really grates on Lou, and he's been playing Sanchez significantly less lately.  With Rocco coming back in the next few weeks and Hollins hitting even better than Sanchez, it makes some sense to DFA him...

by Brickhaus on Jun 11, 2005 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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