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Around SBN: Missouri Crashes The Top Line After Kansas Win

Jorge Cantu - boom or bust?

Cantu had a nice 2 HR performance tonight to give him 9 on the season.  Going into the game, the 23 year old had the following vitals:

AVG: .306
OBP: .326
SLG: .475
K/BB: 30/4

The big red flag reveals itself in the last category, which also shows up in the OBP.

The question is this, what does the future hold for Cantu?

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Poor Mans Soriano
Doesn't walk much, that obviously needs to improve, but he also doesn't K much.  I think if he hits .300, which he is now, and did in the time he spent up last year, he will naturally develop better plate dicipline.  Will never be great, but he's a good hitter.

My guess is he can be an above average hitting second baseman for several years.  I would expect that he could keep up his current numbers, raising his OBP during his prime to around .350, not great, but good enough.

Bob Abreu for Kevin Stocker....I'll take it-Chuck Lamar

by Tyler on Jun 18, 2005 12:34 AM EDT reply actions  

Sandberg
Not saying Cantu will be Sandberg but Ryne's career OBP was .344 and I think his career could be considered "great"

by PolkCountyRay on Jun 18, 2005 12:41 AM EDT reply actions  

Depends on position
If he's really the 3B of the future then he's going to struggle to be adequate.  As a second baseman, he'll be useful his entire career with that power.  As a third baseman, he'll be average.  I agree with those who expect the plate discipline to improve, so I don't think a team will ever be hurt by putting Cantu in their lineup, regardless, but he could be among the elite offensive second basemen in the game if he sticks at the position.  The Soriano comp is a good one, though Soriano strikes out more.

by jhelfgott @ Minor League Ball on Jun 18, 2005 2:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Cantu
Cantu is a keeper.

by Goodfella on Jun 18, 2005 9:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Harsh...
The guy is 23 years old and way ahead of the curve for someone his age.  He will not turn 24 until after the season.

What kind of a question is this?  He will probably be below average in K/BB for his career.  Isn't it obvious already this guy can hit?

Let's not let ourselves get too carried away here.

Nice remark above about Sandberg and his not so great OBP.

by stjp5 on Jun 18, 2005 9:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Some stats
A few things to pass around:

Ryne Sandberg - Age 23 - 158 games

AVG: .261
OBP: .316
SLG: .351
K/BB: 79/51

Ryne Sandberg - Age 25 - 153 games

AVG: .305
OBP: .364
SLG: .504
K/BB: 97/57

Jorge Cantu - Age 23 - year to date

AVG: .309
OBP: .329
SLG: .502
K/BB: 31/4

Omar Infante - Age 22 (last year) - 142 games

AVG: .264
OBP: .317
SLG: .449
K/BB: 112/40

There's a tendency to label any 2B prospect with poor plate discipline and good pop "the next Soriano"... just like any RHP who doesn't burn the radar guns but relies on control is dubbed the next Maddux.  

Personally, I can't even mention Cantu in the same sentence as Sandberg and Soriano.

by okbluejays on Jun 18, 2005 10:37 AM EDT reply actions  

okbluejays relax...
No one said he was as good as Sanberg or Soriano.  In response to your observation/question people said "poor mans Soriano" and above average secondbaseman.

Of course if we were to put too much stock into OBP and stats we would see that Cantu's numbers are much better than Sandbergs.  Not that anyone would say Cantu is better.

I did not see anyone say he was the next Soriano or Sandberg.  Anyway..the guy can hit regardless of his OBP in MLB at age 23.

by stjp5 on Jun 18, 2005 2:55 PM EDT reply actions  

reply
Whoa!  I wasn't being nearly as critical as you think... and I can see that nobody said he was as good as either of them.  I've just noticed a tendency to always compare certain types of players to guys like Soriano... or Maddux... you see it a lot.  That doesn't make it wrong, just common.  

I don't think he'll end up nearly as good as either Sandberg or Soriano... And, regardless of his high batting average and strong HR numbers, I'm not yet convinced he will succeed as a major league hitter over a long period of time.  If he does this for the rest of the year, and then for the first little while of next year, I'll be singing a different tune.  but even still, these numbers out of a 3B are pretty average.  In that respect I agree with one of the other posters.

by okbluejays on Jun 19, 2005 12:12 AM EDT reply actions  

No offense meant
okbluejays.

Sometimes subtlety gets lost in the real of e-mail and my own clumsy articulations.  Point taken about comparisons.

As a third baseman we will have to see if enough power develops.  He would look better as a seconbaseman.  However for now he is 4th in slugging and OPS for those that qualify for 3B in the AL.  3rd in the same categories for 2nd basemen.  As you note his OBP is low (.328).  Even though it's early, he still has superior numbers, especially for a 23 year-old.

I wonder what John or BP says is a large enough number of ABs to begin to feel comfortable a player.

by stjp5 on Jun 19, 2005 9:45 AM EDT reply actions  

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