Eric Patterson
by So Cal Bob on Jun 17, 2005 3:46 PM EDT
9 comments
I was reading the Daily Dish on BA and couldn't believe what I read. A scout speaking about Eric Patterson said, "He's played three years at a major program, so I'd like to see him face some better pitching, but that's not his fault. I do like his approach. He waits for his pitch, and when he gets it, he goes after it. He can get into a rut where he tries to hit for more power, but when he trusts his hands, he uses all the fields and is much more productive. Defensively, he's good enough but nothing special, and he has above-average speed but is not a burner. So in the end you have a second baseman who can hit for average, but without much power and he plays average defense. That's more of an occasional starter/utility guy for me as opposed to an everyday player for a first-division club."
If that isn't the biggest waste of breath I've read, I don't know what is. How can a guy make this statement after 48 games played (in his 1st pro season) when the production is spectacular? .366/.443/.550 17 SB in 22 attempts 10 2B, 5 3B, and 5 HR's. This is what drives me nuts about scouts.
Anyone else?
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More than stats
Patterson is a good player, but not a great player. As he's in the Midwest League, he's a long ways away from the Majors. He's also 22 years old and spent his collegiate career in a major conference with Georgia Tech.
Do you think he'll be a superstar? I'm not sure how you can criticize this scout who has seen Patterson play. All you did was look at a statistical line. There's nothing wrong with that, but I'd rather have a scouting report than reading into the stats. Anybody can interpret stats.
Are all scouts good? Absolutely not. Are all statheads good? Absolutely not. But I'd rather read a scouting report about a player in Low A ball as opposed to going to Baseball America to see his stats.
by Spooneybarger on Jun 17, 2005 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
what?
And by the way, EP was a 2nd-3rd round projection in the draft and fell to the 8th due to signability and performance. He obviously has skills and was recognized by the scouting community before the draft.
If I used your logic as to his negative background, I take it that you cannot improve once you commit to pro ball? Never improve. I mean he IS 22 years old and came from a college program. So he is fully tapped out at the ripe old age of 22, huh?
My point is that the scout's assessment about his future potential in MLB is WAY TOO PREMATURE. Reading the scouts notes I had a vision of Luis Castillo--with more power and less with the glove. Is he, Luis, an ocassional starter and utility guy? Hardly not. He also owns a World Series ring from a front-line team.
His own words + preformance do not = back-up or ocassional starter at this point. Or do they?
by So Cal Bob on Jun 17, 2005 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
first, the scout made his judgement in spite of his first 48 games obviously, since his first 48 games have been quite good. This could be due to the fact that he is facing similar if not worse competition(I do not know the difference between a high quality baseball conference in college and the minors, so if im wrong feel free to correct me) than he faced in however many years he was at georgia tech, so the production could have been expected, thus not heightening his prospect status and potential in the major leagues.
many prospect are drafted in very high round because they are solid if unspectacular players who can be great utility players or decent starters at hard to fill positions(2b), they tend to be college players who are more likely to fullfill their potential than higher potential picks. So him being projected as a 2nd or 3rd rounder proves nothing of his potential ability at the ML level.
maybe he isn't very likely to improve. You are generalizing far too much. Maybe that was his thing, he had tried hard and gotten most everything he could out of his talent, its happened before, and will happen again. It could also be that scouts were wrong and he will exceed his supposed limits, although its probably less likely to happen than for him to maintain his skill level.
as far as it being too premature to paint this guy as a utility spot starter, i'd have to disagree again. Hes 22 so hes more of of a known quantity than most A ball players. Plus if this was his expected career path, then its certainly too early to predict that he will continue it. Good college hitter, introduced to low minors, hits quite well, moved up and numbers drop, spends another year at AA/AAA to refine his approach, moves up to the MLB at 24-25 and settles into the role of utility guy/starter at a weak position. Not exactly an unheard of career path.
as for what you took from the scouts analysis, obviously either the scout poorly chose his words and thus exagerrated the players abilities to those who read it, and thus the conclusion he drew did not follow from the report he presented, but rather from the way he actually feels about the player overall. Or you could have misinterpreted the level of player he projected him to be, as maybe he would rate luis castillo much higher in some areas. Also, he could have been rating EP against other prospects and not ML talent like you probably were when you made the luis castillo connection.
Maybe EP can and will be great, but your argument for it is definitely flawed.
by bobbsktball on Jun 18, 2005 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
man i wish there was an edit button to fix typos like that.
by bobbsktball on Jun 18, 2005 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
flawed?
Keep in mind he didn't sign until after the season. He essentially is 6 months behind Pedroia who is very well thought of and has similar pedigree. Except his excellent production is at AA after pounding A-ball last year (which Patterson is doing).
Wouldn't a better choice of words been--"I'm not sure on this guy. I would like to see how he handles AA before making an assessment of his MLB potential. He's off to a great start." That would absolutely fit with his assessment of his skills. But no he says--"back-up and ocassional starter" which is completely flawed in it's own right.
by So Cal Bob on Jun 18, 2005 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I'm not mistaken
You are absolutely right in that it's premature to take a definitive stance on a player's potential, especially after only seeing a prospect for a few games and at a low level of organized ball. But that's the way the hierarchy is set up, and that's what scouts are asked to do.
In fairness to the system, remember that Patterson's going to be scouted numerous times as he works his way through the system (one reason why I don't have a problem with the premature assessment). It may well be that his perceived potential will be moved up (or down). In fact, I expect it to change. Repeatedly.
Medea's Child
by medeas child on Jun 18, 2005 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scouts and Eric Patterson
We really do need to see Patterson against a higher level of competition. In 192 AB, his BB/K ratio is 28/42. I'm not real impressed by the number of Ks given that he's a 22 year old in the Midwest League, and I'd be a little skeptical (although not significantly so) of his projected performance at higher levels.
On the good side of things, looks like he's got a plus bat contact-wise, with solid/plus gap power and plus speed. If he continued his development appropriately to the major league level, I could see him becoming a very solid starter for a good team. Not too many 2B can offer a consistent combination of contact, speed, and power to the gaps.
by mrkupe on Jun 18, 2005 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ok
And that is not neccesarily a better choice of words, if the scout felt confident that EP's skill level would not translate in the ML to anything more than utility guy. If he thought he had the potential to be more, and it was a decent chance that he would, he'd probably state that in his report.
by bobbsktball on Jun 18, 2005 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hello,
by Isisaston on Dec 21, 2006 10:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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