MOD: Chicago Cubs II

by acerimusdux on Jun 1, 2005 2:00 AM EDT Comment 23 comments

I'm taking over as Scouting Director, since Phiago can't make it on Sunday. And I really need some help!

I thought I'd start with a poll of some guys who might be available around pick number 20 in round 1. Also, maybe give me a list of your top 5.

I'll post a couple more questions tomorrow, with some guys we should be looking at in the next couple of rounds.

Thanks!

Update [2005-6-2 16:52:58 by acerimusdux]:
I'm not sure how this will work, but I changed the poll for a kind of runoff of the top 5 candidates. OK - that didn't work. Unsurprisingly, you can't change the poll. So I'll do a runoff below instead.

Update [2005-6-5 1:1:0 by acerimusdux]:
The draft starts at 1:00 PM CST (2:00 where I am here on the east coast.) Teams are limited to 2 minutes a pick, but it looks to me like it will take at least about a minute a pick. I'll be here for the whole thing, and I'll keep this thread open in a seperate window, so I can check on it in case anyone wants to make suggestions here during the draft. I'd guess things will be particularly interesting around 2:20-3:20 CST, as my guess is we'll have three picks in that time (probably within about a half hour). Thanks!

Update [2005-6-5 20:10:17 by acerimusdux]:
Well here's what we got:
1.(20) Jacoby Ellsbury OF 6' 1" 175 L/L Oregon State 9/11/83
2.(68) Trevor Bell OF/RHP 6' 2" 180 L/R La Crecenta HS, CA 10/12/86
3.(100) Jensen Lewis RHP 6' 3" 185 R/R Vanderbilt 5/16/84
3.(108) Ryan Mullins LHP 6' 6" 175 L/L Vanderbilt 11/13/83
4.(130) Brian Hernandez CA 6' 0" 210 R/R Vanderbilt
5.(160) Jemile Weeks 2B 5' 9" 150 B/R Lake Brantley HS, FL 1/26/87 - brother of Ricky

Poll

Who should the Cubs take in round 1?

Matt Torra

4 votes

Cesar Carrillo

1 votes

Mark McCormick

2 votes

C.J. Henry

2 votes

Trevor Crowe

4 votes

Jacoby Ellsbury

7 votes

Taylor Teagarden

1 votes

Cliff Pennington

8 votes

Brandon Snyder

4 votes

Colby Rasmus

5 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 23 comments

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Comments

OK

I know I want Chase Headley at #70.

I like Ellisbury at 20.

by SenorGato88 on Jun 1, 2005 6:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

pick

If Jeff Clement or Ryan Braun somehow makes it down, that's a no brainer. After that...

Crowe, Henry, Ellsbury, Pennington, Teagarden

by slurve on Jun 1, 2005 8:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hmm

No Greene? You atleast have to consider him.

No Pawelek? If he makes it past the Yankees at 16, the Cubs will jump on him even if he is a Boras-advisee. Atleast that's what I think we'd do. We normally take risks on signability and best player available routes.

I voted Carillo. AS mentioned if someone falls b/c of Boras the Cubs will jump on him.

Hansen
Pawelek
Carrillo
Henry
Teagarden

by Ienpw on Jun 1, 2005 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Pawelek

I'll probably grab him if he falls.

I was working off of the BA draft tracker and didn't include anyone over Henry at #18. I probably should have went a bit higher and included Pawelek & Brian Bogusevic as well.

The one guy I really skipped is Mayberry. I don't like all or nothing power hitting 1B prospects. It seems to me there's an awful lot of those guys who are stars in the minor leagues and never make it past AAA. I want a bit more polish on a bat here, or at least some all around tools.

I don't think it's likely anyone will drop too far in the mock draft, so I doubt we'll see Hansen. The real draft is another story.

The other guy in there that I don't care for much is Crowe. He doesn't have much of an arm and he's playing alot of left field. I think Ellsbury may look similar, but I'm more confident of Ellsbury's defense in CF, and I think he has more potential to show at least some power in pro ball.

Greene seems to have fallen alot. BA had him at #40. Not long ago he was considered a sure first rounder. He's another guy who I'm not sure about his bat, but he at least has some interesting tools for SS, and he was BA's #2 prospect in Cape Cod last year.

by acerimusdux on Jun 2, 2005 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shaping up

If a higher ranked guy like Clement, McCutchen, Hansen, or Pawelek falls we take him.

As for the guys I listed, I haven't had many comments, but the board consensus seems to be:

Ellsbury
Pennington
Snyder
Torra

so I'll rank them that way for round one.

by acerimusdux on Jun 5, 2005 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Round 2 - #68

Some candidates (and where they rank on BA's top 200):

Brett Hayes (53)
P.J. Phillips (58)
Ryan Tucker (61)
Anthony Vavaro (62)
Josh Wall (63)
Brian Matusz (66)
David Adams (67)
Jeremy Hellickson (69)
Ryan Mullins (73)
Eli Lorg (75)
Zach Putnam (76)
Austin Jackson (77)
Seth Johnston (80)
Justin Maxwell (89)

The first two probably won't be there, but they're interesting if they are. Several interesting possible high ceiling HS pitchers that could be there, in Tucker, Wall, Hellickson, and Matusz. And a couple of interesting college arms I like in Varvaro and Mulins. Zach Putnam might be more interesting now for his bat, but pitching is always a good fallback. And I always like good pure hitters like David Adams. Austin Jackson has a very high ceiling, though I might want to stay away from anyone that raw. And the last two look like at least good fallbacks - Maxwell seems a bit underrated to me at only 89.

Thoughts?

How about a top 5 from this list (and add anyone I left off who you like)?

by acerimusdux on Jun 2, 2005 1:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Devine from NC State

I really like a guy that is local to my area, Joey Devine from NC State. One main reason is he is a fast-track relief pitcher. He has a fastball sitting in the 92-95 range that can touch 97, with an off the table slider. I like "sure things", and while there is no such of a thing in the baseball prospect world, a player like Devine seems more apt to help the big club soon.

by jonpyardi on Jun 2, 2005 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Devine

Would you take him as high as #20, or do you mean if he falls to #68?

I think he's being projected as a supplemental rounder right now. I doubt he falls. He might be worthy of consideration at 20, but I might have a tough time ranking him over Torra, McCormick, Bogusevic, or Carrillo.

by acerimusdux on Jun 2, 2005 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

devine at 20

Personally, I'd take Devine at 20, again because its a lower risk, high reward pick. That is something that is very rare in the MLB Draft. That being said, for the spot, IF every player pans out like they should, taking Devine that high is probably not the best decision, but as we all know, most players will not sniff the Bigs.

by jonpyardi on Jun 3, 2005 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neighborgall in the 3rd

Another guy that if he falls to the 2nd pick (I wouldn't take him before that) is Jason Neighborgall. I was the pitching coach for an AAU team Jason pitched on when he was 15, we ultimately finished 4th in the nation and Jason was lights out for us back then. I haven't got to see him pitch since he went to Georgia Tech, so I'm not sure where his mechanics are at now, but I know he has it in him to throw strikes. IF he throws strikes, this guy has a million dollar arm. He can touch triple digits and his fastball may not be his best pitch, as he has a filthy curveball. BA had him ranked #100 among pitchers I believe, but with a huge asterisk I believe if he throws strikes. Personally, I'd love for the Cubs to grab Jason.

by jonpyardi on Jun 2, 2005 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The subject line should have said in the 2nd round

by jonpyardi on Jun 2, 2005 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Neighborgall

I like high ceiling arms. Stuff seems to matter more for pitching prospects than polish. With hitters, I like to see more polish and production.

But, as raw as Neighborgall is, I still don't think I'm taking that gamble unless he's there in round 3.

by acerimusdux on Jun 2, 2005 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

3rd round would be good

One thing to consider is Jason previously was represented by Boras, one reason why he slipped to the 7th round out of high school. Luckily, in a mock draft, it's a little cheaper to sign these guys. :)

by jonpyardi on Jun 3, 2005 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

I think this draft will be somewhat stat oriented, so higher ceiling guys who haven't performed could fall a bit. Neighborgall might not be one of them though, simply due to name recognition.

I might be wary of taking too much of a gamble in round 1 or even 2, but if there's a high ceiling guy out there who's falling past that, I could take the gamble. There are an awful lot of guys with good stats who don't have the ceiling to be more than a utility player or middle reliever in the majors. I might take a chance on a high ceiling guy or two in rounds 3-5. I might also look for a good defensive catcher somewhere in there.

by acerimusdux on Jun 3, 2005 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Round #1 runoff:

If one of the top 2 HS pitchers, Pawelek or Volstad, fall, or someone else obvious (surprisingly, Hansen & McCutchen aren't gettting too much discussion on other boards) I'll grab them.

But, for now I'm assuming no surprises, and I'd like to see how everyone ranks the followong 5:

Ellsbury
Pennington
Snyder
Torra
McCormick

by acerimusdux on Jun 2, 2005 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

please don't

take Pennington. The system is loaded with no hit, good glove SS/2B.

Crowe (I know he's not lsited)
Ellsbury
Torra
Mac
Snyder

Like you said, if McCutchen, Pawalek, or Hansen is there, you need to grab them.

by So Cal Bob on Jun 2, 2005 5:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Some info on each

Info from BA, Brewerfan.net, and InsideThe Park.com.

Jacoby Ellsbury
OF Jr. L-L 6-1 175 Oregon State Madras, Ore. 9/11/83
.426avg 197AB 16D 2T 6HR 20SB

His speed currently is the strongest aspect of his game, as he uses it well in centerfield and on the basepaths. He is a leadoff type hitter with a very good eye at the plate, and he makes good contact from gap to gap. While he doesn't have much present-day power, his frame could offer more home run potential down the road. He is one of the better defensive outfielders available for the 2005 draft.

Johnny Damon lookalike also has tablesetter tools, skills.

The comparisons to Johnny Damon are obvious. Ellsbury has a short, quick swing that doesn't seem like it will generate power once he moves to the pro ranks and wooden bats, but his speed and ability to get on base makes him an excellent leadoff prospect.

Cliff Pennington
SS Jr. B-R 5-11 170 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Texas 6/15/84
.368avg 204AB 13D 4T 7HR 26SB

Pennington combines the physical skills that scouts love with the production that stat-heads crave. A smaller, scrappy switch-hitter, Pennington has the range, hands, speed and arm strength to stay at shortstop. Offensively he doesn't have much over the fence power, but he should hit enough to the gaps while using his speed to accumulate his fair share of doubles and triples.

Scouts love this gamer's combo of tools, savvy and skills

Watching Pennington at shortstop reminds me of Khalil Greene. Both have graceful movements and can make acrobatic plays, and both are smart players with excellent baseball instincts, good arms and good range. Pennington plays hard at all times and has great gap power to go along with speed and savvy that could make him an annual threat to steal 20 bases

Brandon Snyder
C/SS Sr. R-R 6-2 190 Westfield HS Centreville, Va. 11/23/86
.547avg 53AB 5D 2T 3HR 2SB

If he doesn't stay behind the plate, he could be a capable third baseman as well. His bat would play almost anywhere on the field, with one of the best pure bats in the nation. He is a very good overall athlete that like Brandon Inge could be a very good, versatile utility player if he doesn't find a permanent defensive home. Snyder's bat and athleticims has caused his name to rise on most draft boards over the winter and early spring.

Son of a big leaguer has shown aptitude behind the plate

The third-rated catcher in most 2005 draft analyses, Snyder is also a solid shortstop. His future looks like it will be behind the plate, where he is still learning but has the physical ability to be a keeper. His bat is quick and his approach to hitting sound

Matt Torra
RHP Jr. R-R 6-3 225 Massachusetts Pittsfield, Mass. 6/29/84
1.13ERA 88IP 52H 14BB 97SO

Torra is enjoying a breakout junior season in which he is striking out batters, showing excellent control and limiting baserunners overall. He has a very good, strong pitching frame and has been showing very impressive arm strength, working in the 92-94 range with a power curveball. Still a relative unknown, Torra has pitched his way as a possible first-round or supplemental pick.

Better prospect than Bay State's 2004 first-rounder, BC's Chris Lambert

The Red Sox are hoping that Torra - who has been dominant for U-Mass this year, posting a 1.14 ERA in 95 innings with a 111/16 K/BB and only 56 hits allowed - will fall to them at 23, but it won't happen.

Mark McCormick
RHP Jr. R-R 6-2 190 Baylor Clear Lake Shores, Texas 10/15/83
3.48ERA 75IP 50H 41BB 75SO

McCormick harnesses a low to mid-90s fastball and a knee-buckling curve, and probably offers the most impressive 1-2 package of pure stuff of any pitcher, outside of Neighborgall, eligible for next June's draft. His fiery, cocky makeup has had scouts question his character on more than one occasion, but on the flip side he wants the ball in pressure situations and won't back down. His lack of a solid, third pitch may prompt a move to the bullpen down the road where he could shine as an intimidating closer prospect, and with a big spring he could easily be a top 5 pick, if Scott Boras doesn't scare too many teams away.

One of draft's hardest throwers, but some makeup questions remain

So far McCormick has been sporadic in living up to his potential, and 2005 has been no different. At times, he looks brilliant (12 K in 6 IP against Missouri on May 20th), but then he'll melt-down, as he did on May 13th against Texas A&M (7 ER, 2 BB, 0 K in 2.2 IP).

by acerimusdux on Jun 2, 2005 6:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Local Talent

Brian Bogusevic

Like Aubrey, Bogusevic has a very smooth swing from the left-side of the plate that produces line drives to all parts of the field. While his power is more from gap to gap at this point in time, his natural swing path and strong stature is expected to produce more home runs as he matures as a hitter, which also may be aided if he devotes his time solely to hitting. Unlike Aubrey and even Head, Bogusevic is a great natural athlete, and will see his fair share of time playing CF and leading off for the Green Wave this spring. At the pro level he probably projects best in RF, with plenty of range and a good arm. On the mound he has a similar fluid motion, and while he's not over-bearing, he can pitching in the high-80s and mixes in a nice breaking ball and good changeup.

Since this was written, it seems more teams are considering him as a pitcher. But BA says he could still go in the first round as an outfielder as well. At the plate this year, he had a .432 OBP, but only a .389 slugging %, with no HR, a sharp falloff from a year ago when he had 10 HR and slugged .559. Apparently a hamstring injury was partly to blame. Bogusevic, from Oak Lawn, Illinois, should be in the mix at #20.

Michael Bowden

Well built northern righty from Illinois that has a strong, workhorse frame and a polished overall repertoire. He sits in the 88-91 range with his fastball from a over the top delivery, and he can touch 94 on occasion. He has a very promsing power curveballball and his fastball shows good, late life. He works well down in the zone, and shows an advanced knowledge of his craft. He has committed to play for Arizona State.

Bowden has been rising up draft boards, and we probably won't get a chance to take him as he'll go somewhere between our #20 and #68 picks.

Michael Broadway

Broadway is the second of two talented, prep righties from the state of Illinois, joining Michael Bowden. Broadway is taller and leaner than Bowden, with greater projectability but without the polish. He throws in the 88-91 range with the size to add more velocity as he grows and matures. He could stand to clean up his mechanics, and his secondary offerings could use refinement.

We will have a chance at Broadway; he might be a good pick in round 4.

Chris Robinson

Robinson hails from Dorchester, Ontario in Canada, where he was named Ontario's player of the year in 2001 coming out of high school. He was drafted by the New York Mets in the 30th round of the 2002 draft. While Robinson doesn't have one tool that really stands out, he is solid across the board. Probably the best aspect of his game is his true catching ability, as he has good leadership abilities and handles the pitching staff well. He also displays good footwork, overall technique and a strong throwing arm. He also has been extremely durable behind the plate, starting 51 of 55 total games his sophomore year. He has also been very productive at the plate for the Illini, leading the team in batting average (.359) and slugging percentage (.541) in his second season with the team. He stands to be drafted in the top two to five rounds of this June's draft, and probably will be drafted closer to the second than the fifth given the need for solid catchers at the professional level.

He had similar numbers to that this season, as of May 23, a .360 average with 10 doubles, 2 triples, and 8 HR in 164 AB. Another one that might be a good pick around round 4.

Should we favor the local talent at all, especially in the later rounds?

by acerimusdux on Jun 4, 2005 1:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Round 3 & 4

It looks like we have 3 picks pretty close together, # 100, #108, & #130. I'll probably get three guys ranked in the 95-140 range.

Since it looks like we'll most likely get a bat in round 1 (that seems to be the preference of the board anyway), and I have a good idea I might like a bat in round 2, I think I might go for some pitching here if there's anyone there left that I like. But if a higher ranked bat falls, I'll take it as well. I probably won't take a slap hitting SS or CF type here, though there are a couple of toolsy SS types that might be too good to pass up if they fall. But if it's a bat it's probably one with a decent ceiling, but also some polish at the plate.

And I'd like at least one college arm in these three picks. I may take a catcher, but I might save that for the last pick (#160). I also could take a lower ceiling polished college bat at #160 , or a good defensive SS, if I've gotten the higher ceiling guys I want in the earlier rounds and think I could use some balance.

This could change depending on what's available, but I probably will lean towards HS bats, then college arms.

Any suggestions?

by acerimusdux on Jun 5, 2005 12:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Should I take Jay Bruce????

I don't really want him, but he could be there.

by acerimusdux on Jun 5, 2005 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Round 1 - Ellsbury

We got Ellsbury.

by acerimusdux on Jun 5, 2005 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just Thought You Should Know

I hate you guys for taking Jensen...

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

by ESiegrist on Jun 5, 2005 6:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Glad I didn't wait!

I wasn't going to chance him falling to 130, but I might have waited until 108. But, the other pitching I liked was mostly gone, and I had taken bats in the first 2, so I figured I bettter grab him. He was the one pitcher I didn't want to miss.

by acerimusdux on Jun 5, 2005 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs