Third round pick: Daniel Carte, OF

At the very least the Schoeneweis signing shows that JP will deal will Boras.  On the other hand, whether JP thinks that ANY prospect is worth big bucks considering the inherent risks with prospects is another question.  

Personally, I think the Jays this year need to draft someone with a higher ceiling, even if there is a higher risk.  As I look through our system, I see a lot of guys who could be solid major leaguers, but nobody who has star potential with the exception of McGowan (who is hurt, making him a bad gamble).  So, I don't want to see a Romero.  Everything I've read pegs him as a possible solid #3 starter or so, which is pretty much what I think of Purcey and Jackson.    

And let us be mindful that the Jays' budget was increased earlier this year.  JP was given a boost for the next 3 years, but has not spent the money for this year.  As a result, the Jays do have the money available to plunk down on a guy like Drew, if they think he's worth it.  Drafting a guy like Drew would invigorate the system, and would get some people excited.  Nothing I've read indicates that this is a possibility, but I thought I would mention it.

Anyway, the point of this mock draft is to select for the Jays as we would do it, not try to guess who they will take.  

At this point I'd like to just rank the top players first, and then weight the risk/reward of signing them second.  We very well might drop players because of their perceived bonus demands, but that's getting ahead of things.

Right now, here's my top 10:

1.  Upton
2.  Gordon
3.  Drew
4.  Tulowitzki
5.  Weaver
6.  Zimmerman
7.  Braun
8.  Maybin
9.  Pelfrey
10.  Romero

If you do not agree with the order give me good reasons why someone should be raised or dropped.  

Bump Drew and Weaver off the list please. You have to figure if Boras will not get these two signed before the draft he will be looking for as much or more than what he asked the Angels and D-Backs for. So you really want to pay between $5 and $10 million (major league contract so you have to dump a player of the 40-man roster) for a pitcher that no one has seen play in a game situtation in almost a year? And Drew is battling injuries in the independent league right now and can't even play. Look how injury-riddled brother JD has been.

Pelfrey's status really aren't that good.

1. Upton
   
2. Gordon
   
3. Maybin
   
4. Zimmerman
   
5. Romero
   
6. Braun
   
7. Clement
   
8. Hochevar
   
9. Tulowitzki
   
10. Volstad

1. I'd prefer Craig Hansen to Pelfrey.  One could look at the Jays minor league system and conclude that the last thing we need is another reliever, with Vermilyea and League and Arnold not too far away.  Also, Gaudin and Rosario both might end up in relief.  But I don't see a lot in the major league pen right now that I like.  Also, League is scuffling, and you never know how these guys will end up.  Two personal notes: first, I'm very encouraged by Arnold's move to the pen.  Could he be a poor man's Foulke?  Second, how can a team wise enough to pick up Steve Andrade not give him a legit shot at the majors and bury him in AA.  I'd move him up to AAA right now, and put him on my very short list for a callup when the need arises.
2. I worry about Weaver not pitching for an entire year.  I would like to hear knowledgeable opinions on this, but I recall reading that pitchers can lose some velocity which may not come back when they don't continue to pitch.  It seems an odd thing to say, considering people come back from some surgeries stronger than ever (though sometimes due to improved "parts" so to speak), but I recall seeing it.  Any comments?  To me, this would outweigh any benefits from having a "rested" arm with less abuse on it.  And despite his numbers in college, most of what I have read pegs him as a 2-3 starter, which is not what I'd want to pay 6 million for.

Meditate on this, I will.

1.  Upton
   
2.  Gordon
   
3.  Drew
   
4.  Zimmerman
   
5.  Braun - sleeper among projected first rounders, IMO
   
6.  Maybin - just thinking we already have lots of good SP prospects
   
7.  Romero
   
8.  Pelfrey
   
9.  Tulowitzki- Dropped because "better than Crosby" is all I've heard. Crosby hasn't proven to be the next big thing in my eyes. Plus, all things even, we need 3B more than SS goig forward.
   
10.  Weaver -dropped because of year off.

As far as Boras clients go, Ricciardi has publicly speculated about looking closely at Stephen Drew.  Smoke and mirrors, maybe?  I suspect he'd have little or no interest - even though there's more room in the budget, spending a good-sized chunk of it on a player who may not reach the majors until the end of the team's budget cycle isn't a likely scenario.  The advantage of Drew over someone like Tulowitzki is that even if Drew has to move off shortstop, he's got the bat to carry him.

I think Maybin's got terrific potential to hit homers in bunches, and if he were available I'd like to see him picked.  He should be way higher than 8th, especially since his power potential is probably higher than anyone but Gordon's.

Re Hochevar adding velocity - if he were a young guy, I'd think it were definitely possible.  But he's 22 in September and I think the prospect of him adding much velocity is limited.  I'm not sure that matters; what he needs much more than added velocity is to develop an effective change and get his pitched under control!  He walks way too many guys.

If I had to pick a pitcher, and quite honestly I wouldn't mind, I'd want Pelfrey, who's got big-league size, plus the whole package - he misses bats and doesn't dance around guys as much as Romero.

1. Since the J.P. took over the Jays, they have been very hesitant to pick high school products early in the draft. During the past three drafts, the highest-drafted high school player picked by the Jays was in the 9th round. Plus, as you all know, J.P. subscribes to Billy Beane's theory of drafting college players early that have a greater likelihood of having an impact in a shorter amount of time. Maybe the Jays would pick a guy like Maybin if he was there, but I doubt it. Therefore, I would drop any high school players from immediate consideration.
2. The Jays also do not have a very big budget. Therefore, it could be difficult for them to sign a guy represented by Boras (Pelfrey, Hochevar, and Hansen are examples). I think that players with signability concerns should also be dropped in the rankings.
3. The Jays have some depth in the middle infield (Hill, Adams, etc.), so that is probably not a concern. Despite some solid pitchers in the minors, they do not have a guy that could end up being a stud.
4. Also, I would not mess with Weaver or Drew if they are back in the draft.

Here's my top 10:

1. Upton (he will not be there, but I'm sure the Jays would give him a look if he was)
   
2. Gordon
   
3. Zimmerman
   
4. Romero
   
5. Braun
   
6. Maybin
   
7. Clement
   
8. Pelfrey
   
9. Hansen
   
10. Matt Torra (signability pick)

Upton
Gordon
Pelfrey
Romero
Maybin
Hochover
Zimmerman
Braun
Drew
Weaver

And I'm personally against taking Boras clients, but they're on the list in case JP can afford them this year.

1.  He said players already in the organization will have no impact on the player selected (I think the exact phrase was "we'll take shortstops first every single frickin year if we like them the most").  So if you're arguing for or against a particular player don't use that as a reason.  The player selected will be the 'best player available'.
2.  Unless a HS player is as close to a no-brainer as possible (like Upton) bossman isn't interested.  There's been an emphasis on college players in the first three drafts and it's worked well so far, so there's no plan to change it now.
3.  Boras clients are in play at the moment (Bob Elliot, for whatever it's worth, said in today's column that there's talk that both Drew and Weaver are a consideration).

Updated rankings:

1.  Upton
   
2.  Gordon
   
3.  Drew
   
4.  Zimmerman
   
5.  Braun
   
6.  Pelfrey
   
7.  Romero
   
8.  Tulowitzki

1.  We put feelers out to Boras on Stephen Drew.  If he re-enters the draft he'll want a $6 million, major league contract.

A simple yes or no - assuming that contract, is Drew worth taking?

2.  Pelfrey - he wants a contract similar to the Rice pitchers last year (who went #3 and #4) and is willing to hold out to get it.

Another simple yes or no - Is there enough of a difference between Romero (who we'll assume will take slot at #6) and Pelfrey that we'll want to go the extra mile with Pelfrey knowing that he might not sign in time to pitch this year?

Yes on Drew. Assuming that's not 6 mil for all one year, committing that figure to - for instance - three years of service is worth a gamble. Of course, I'd try to finagle him down a bit since he has a lot less leverage now but that's acceptable.

No on the pitchers. That's insane. I take Romero easily in that scenario.

On a related note, I wonder what the Jays' brass think of Vernon Wells now?  He never walked enough to make me feel comfortable about his future prospects as a hitter, though his defence does seem as good as advertised.  And I do recall him showing up to camp lighter after his (to-date) career year and he hasn't been the same since.  Maybe he should hit the weights again! (I'm not going to perpetuate the unfounded rumours)

Anwyays, these are things that we don't really need to discuss, they were just on my mind.  

I wouldn't draft Tulowitzki because we have two better-hitting SS in the system, and Tulowitzki may not have a bat good enough to move off short.

I hate losing out on Jed Lowrie, which we're going to do because he won't be there at 88.  Them's the breaks... I think a lot of Lowrie, and I mean a lot a lot, but I don't think I can advocate him this high.

The two questions...

1. I hate giving anyody a major league deal.  Hate hate hate.  I hate it so much that I'd pass on Drew if he insists on one.  The money, $6 million, is fine ad I wouldn't be fazed by it.
2. Pelfrey isn't worth that dough.  If he doesn't want to sign for slot money at #6 where he's arguably being overdrafted, forget him.

#6
#88
#118
#148

Ask yourself this, wouldn't you rather have Huston Street coming on to preserve a lead in the 8th rather than our current options?  Sure, there's an argument that the Jays shouldn't be going for relievers so early - that we should focus on more premium positions that will provide a greater benefit over the long run, but we're assuming the better hitters are gone, and nobody is blown away by any of the top SP.  Hansen has a lower risk as well, which is worth considering.

I just want his name in the mix... I'm not going to argue for him as a top 6 or top 8 in this post.

We should hear about Drew and Weaver soon enough.

On another note, I'm looking forward to watching Gaudin pitch.  That trade (for Cash) was a good one for JP.

Ok, Drew and Weaver are out.

It sounds like the consensus is that Tulowitzki isn't as high as my initial ranking, and Pelfrey is too worth the trouble since he and Romero are similar enough.

I'm not comfortable with a reliever or a catcher at #6 so Hansen and Clement are out.

Updated rankings:

1 Upton
2 Gordon
3 Zimmerman
4 Braun
5 Romero
6 Tulowitzki

Barring any changes between now and Sunday I think we'll go with this ranking for the first pick.

The picks after that are:
#86 (round 3)
#116 (round 4)
#146 (round 5)

(I just realized yesterday that this was 5 rounds)

I did a thread on college hitters the Jays may consider with the picks after the first round over at Batters Box.

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050524195823490

A similar thread will be out on pitchers tomorrow.

Feel free to throw some names out.

1.  Upton
   
2.  Gordon
   
3.  Tulowitzki
   
4.  Zimmerman
   
5.  Romero
   
6.  Braun