Cubs Top 20 Review

Brian Dopirak
Chicago Cubs Top 20 Review
- Brian Dopirak: .239/.282/.384 for Class A Daytona, with a 8/25 BB/K ratio in 138 at-bats. He's cut down on his strikeouts, but his production is down across the board.
- Felix Pie: .355/.404/.638 at Double-A West Tennessee, with 13 steals. Looks like a breakout season, putting his tools together.
- Billy Petrick: 1-3, 4.50 in 7 starts for Daytona, 22/15 K/BB in 32 innings. Mediocre performance, he is capable of better than this.
- Angel Guzman: Still struggling with shoulder problems.
- Reynel Pinto: Recently demoted to Double-A after poor performance in Triple-A, due to command problems.
- Jason Dubois: Slugging .574 for the Cubs, albeit in limited action.
- Bobby Brownlie: 5.59 ERA with 23/16 K/BB in 37 innings for Triple-A Iowa. Looked very bad when I saw him back in April.
- Carlos Marmol: 4-1, 3.02 in 8 starts for Daytona, with a 42/22 K/BB in 45 innings. Doing just fine.
- Ryan Harvey: .280/.344/.500 for Class A Peoria. Good power so far, plate discipline still shaky (5 walks, 25 strikeouts in 82 at-bats).
- Sean Marshall: 2-1, 1.85 in 6 starts for Daytona, 31/11 K/BB in 34 innings. Pitching well.
- Matt Murton: .403/.481/.590 in 36 games for Double-A West Tennessee. Excellent performance, showing sound strike zone judgment.
- Ricky Nolasco: 2.06 ERA, 6-0 record in 8 starts in Double-A, 48/14 K/BB in 48 innings. Doing well, destined for Triple-A soon.
- Mark Reed: Horrible start at Peoria, (.135 in 14 games), now at extended spring training.
- Grant Johnson: Extended spring training.
- Matt Craig: hitting .280/.344/.488 for Double-A West Tennessee.
- Brandon Sing: Hitting .342/.467/.739, 10 homers for Double-A West Tennesee. Fine performance.
- Bear Bay: Traded to the Indians, is 4-1, 2.63 for Class A Kinston.
- Jermaine Van Buren: 2.55 ERA, 22/11 K/BB in 18 innings for Triple-A Iowa. Has had some bouts of shaky control but still in line for a middle relief job.
- Jon Connolly: Made 1 start on April 10th in Double-A, but hasn't pitched since.
- Richard Lewis: Very disappointing, hitting .203/.288/.254 through 37 games at Triple-A Iowa.
Status Slipping: Dopirak, Reed, Pinto, Brownlie
Keep an Eye On: Sean Gallagher, 4-1, 0.37 with a 55/10 K/BB in 49 innings, 20 hits allowed, for Class A Peoria. A 12th round pick from a Florida high school last year, Gallagher made my 2005 book as a Grade C prospect, albeit with a "sleeper" notation. I'd say he has woken up.
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40 comments
Comments
Thanks John
I've had an eye on Pie for a couple of years now, really for no reason other than that he was a notable prospect at such a young age. Good to see him taking a step foward. How do his skills compare to Corey Patterson's? Less power, more speed?
by D O on May 18, 2005 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rich Hill
by jonpyardi on May 18, 2005 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hill
by John Sickels on May 18, 2005 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
West Tenn
by Ienpw on May 18, 2005 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Grant Johnson
by Cabbage on May 18, 2005 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Johnson
by John Hill on May 18, 2005 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Felix Pie
by slugggo on May 18, 2005 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Felix
by hybrid on May 18, 2005 6:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pie
Von Joshua, the hitting coach at West Tenn, said that Pie most reminds him of this guy, for what it's worth.
by John Hill on May 18, 2005 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
For example, I know Hermida has much better plate discipline, but he has k'd 32 times in less AB's.
by hybrid on May 18, 2005 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strikeouts
He has made improvements, but he needs to make further improvements. He won't be able to rely upon a batting average on balls in play above .400 in the long term, speed to first base or not. Once he starts to face more advanced pitching and defences, those balls in play will start getting turned into outs at a much more normal rate, and his average will nosedive. Right now he's a natural .270 to .280 hitter, and that's even after the improvements he's made in the strikeout department this year. Combine that with a Corey Patterson-like walk rate and he's not going to be much use to anyone in the long term as a lead-off hitter. In fact, he's becoming to look more like Corey by the day now that he's showing all this power.
He's extremely young though, and he has enough time and talent to improve and become the prospect a lot of people think he is. But I hope we don't see Pie in Chicago before 2007. The Cubs should have learnt their lesson with the way they rushed Corey Patterson to the majors. Corey's only now learning the lessons that he should have been learning five years ago, and it's for that reason that so far he's been a pretty big disappointment (though I still think he'll eventually break out, this year or next).
by John Hill on May 19, 2005 6:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Strikeouts
What I was merely saying was that I don't think his K's are so much of a big issue as much as him not walking more. He is striking out less, which is good, but his walks are on the same pace as before. A quick look at Hermida's numbers show 32 K's which is more than Pie, but he also has 36 BB's which tend to make the K's a non-issue. He just needs to learn to be more patient at the plate.
I believe the Cubs will leave him at each level for a year, which is the best way to go. Obviously they rushed Patterson and it's done nothing but harm him developement, hopefully they realize their former mistake.
I've never seen Pie play more then a game or two so it's hard to really judge him to Patterson. Corey though still tends to swing at everything, he is lucky he has great bat speed which reduces his K's. Felix from what I gather is one of those raw hitters that likes to hit and doesn't like to walk, it should get better ... but I don't see him as a traditional lead off hitter.
by hybrid on May 19, 2005 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pie
by Ienpw on May 18, 2005 6:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not that relevant, but interesting nevertheless...
Pie, age 20, 142 AB, 359/410/655, 8 HR, 12 BB, 28 K
And those other hitters you mentioned and how they fared at Double-A...
Vlad, age 20, 417 AB, 360/432/612, 19 HR, 51 BB, 42 K
Sosa, age 20, 273 AB, 297/338/458, 7 HR, 15 BB, 52 K
Abreu, age 20, 400 AB, 302/372/530, 16 HR, 42 BB, 81 K
So that's Vlad's power and Sosa's strikeout rate!
by John Hill on May 18, 2005 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
West Tenn
by OldStyleCubbie on May 18, 2005 7:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Murton in the bigs?
by lenred on May 18, 2005 7:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm still disappointed
by So Cal Bob on May 18, 2005 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mitre
Mitre's a good pitching prospect. Solid control, decent strikeout rate, and by virtue of a nice sinker, he keeps the ball in the park and churns out groundballs. He's refined his changeup and so in the long run he should be able to get left-handers out (that was his only real problem last year). Given all that, and since I don't have any concerns about getting right-handers out, he projects as a major league starter. Whether or not it'll be with the Cubs is another matter, since he's not only blocked but in the process of burning his third option year this year (so he'd have to be protected on a 25-man roster next year or sent through outright waivers), but at the very least he's good trade bait. Certainly he'll never be an ace, but that's not the be all and end all. Look at the amount of money major league teams lavished on non-ace starting pitchers this winter.
If you have a problem with anyone because Sisco got away, it should be John Koronka, who Hendry actually chose to protect over Sisco, probably because he'd have been a minor league free agent. Hendry then outrighted Koronka off the 40-man roster after Spring Training, so either something changed over the winter, or Koronka just never was any good in the first place. Or both, because the latter is definately true.
That said though, I suspect Sisco was left unprotected for non-baseball reasons (and not because the Cubs liked Koronka more). The Cubs back in November were still in the process of performing their exorcism of clubhouse cancers. Sisco last year reportedly had attitude problems, he was allegedly lazy and disruptive (he had a fight with Jae-Kuk Ryu, the Osprey prospect) and he allowed his weight to balloon well over 300 pounds (from his normal 265). I suspect that the Cubs were trying to shock Sisco into changing by not protecting him, gambling that since he'd never pitched above A-ball and had had a relatively disappointing year at Daytona nobody would select him, or if they did select him they certainly wouldn't keep him. The gamble's so far backfired.
Sisco's not been as good in May as April though - 8 G, 6.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 HR, 10 BB and 9 K. We'll see what happens and if the Royals still stick by him if that kind of form continues.
by John Hill on May 19, 2005 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Koronka outrighted?
The Cubs recent manuevers seem to indicate that there's no room on the 40 man roster. I say this because they had to put Chad Fox on the 60 Day DL to sign Enrique Wilson. I believe you can only place a guy on the 60 day DL to free up 40 man roster space if there's no room left on the 40 man roster. If Koronka had been removed from the 40 man roster, I think that would have left a spot open and thus no need to transfer Fox to the 60 day DL. Also with the recent injuries, the Cubs have only been promoting players on the 40 man roster such as Novoa, Leicester, Mitre, Fontenot, Cedeno, Wellemeyer when they could have POSSIBLY promoted Jermaine Van Buren or Nolasco if a 40 man spot was open.
Basically I'm just wondering if you have a source that Koronka was outrighted indeed.....
by robg on May 19, 2005 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Koronka
I may have just taken Arizona Phil's word for it. So don't take my word for it. In fact, assume that he's still on the roster, my bad.
Either way though, on or off, Koronka's still not very good, and the Cubs aren't ever going to need him.
by John Hill on May 19, 2005 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what you have been watching...
Here are his AAA numbers 2-4, 5.31 era, 39.0 ip, 44 h, 12 bb, and 29 k's. Hardly a prospect as you alluded to.
I would rather have a kid who is 20-21 years old who throws 95-97 mph from the left side as opposed to that--cancer or not. The goal of the minors is to develop kids whether they have attitude probs or mechaincal flaws. Development--period.
Hanley Ramirez had an "attitude" prob and now he's no longer even mentioned with any issues. The red Sox handled him flawlessly and got through to him. These players are kids and need time to mature and figure things out.
by So Cal Bob on May 19, 2005 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sisco and Mitre
I completely disagree that Mitre hasn't got a single quality major league pitch. Sinker, slider, changeup, all are now solid enough offerings for him to have success at the major league level (that wasn't the case with his changeup a year ago, and so, more specifically, he got shelled by lefties, not just shelled by everyone).
And I'm not sure where these four starts fit in with him being shelled "consistently"...
04/10; 7.2 IP, 2 R/ER, 5 H, 0 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
04/21; 6.0 IP, 0 R/ER, 4 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
05/09; 6.0 IP, 3 R/ER, 10 H, 0 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
05/15; 6.0 IP, 3 R/ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Total; 25.2 IP, 2.81 ERA, 25 H, 1 HR, 8 BB, 16 K
That's four of his nine major league starts to date. Not a great ratio at all, and he was hit hard in the others, but that's what happens when you try and go through an order three times with two pitches (as I said, his changeup was poor back then, since refined and improved).
On top of that, quoting his minor league numbers as a whole so far this year is deceptive. Firstly, his peripheral numbers are a lot stronger than his ERA, especially when you consider that four of the five home runs were given up at altitude (Albuquerque and Colorado Springs, which both make Coors look like a pitcher's park) and that five of his twelve walks came in one game when he just didn't have it. Secondly, it's mid-May, and he's thrown just 39 innings, which isn't a particularly meaningful sample size. To say he's "hardly a prospect" on the basis of that is ridiculous. What says it all for the sample size is that this year it's the right-handed hitters giving him trouble. He's never had trouble with them before, and that won't last.
And it was never a choice between Mitre and Sisco. Never. So I really don't know what you're harping on about.
by John Hill on May 19, 2005 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your first sentence in rebuttal was...
I told you my problem with him being protected over Sisco. It could have been a number of other players too, but he is one that stands out to me. I think he stinks and was never really good and doesn't have it in him to be a quality major leaguer. Sisco is 6'9" and throws 96 consistently with a track record of decent success.
You tried to sell me Mitre and I am not buying. My "hardly a prospect" comment is based on what I have seen of him on tv and in person. He doesn't throw strikes because he knows his stuff is not quite good enough. And his strikes when thrown aren't quality--they are center-cut. And given the light of his less than stellar stats, I don't think he's worth a lot. Just my opinion.
We agree on the Sisco unprotected issue. Disagree on Mitre. And Koronka is a disgrace for Hendry to screw up like that--agreed.
I'd love to hear your take on the Juan Cruz for Andy Pratt/Rich Lewis trade?
by So Cal Bob on May 19, 2005 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's his major league number.
60.1 ip, 86 h, 24 bb, 40 k, 1.82 whip .337 avg against, 6.86 ERA
by So Cal Bob on May 19, 2005 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed
I can also list you dozens of pitchers that have struggled in their first 60 major league innings (and a lot more) and become a lot better than that. For instance, which pitcher started their career off like this...?
186.2 IP, 225 H, 20 HR, 85 BB, 121 K, 5.59 ERA
Yuck. Hall of Famer? I don't think so!
by John Hill on May 19, 2005 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Low Opinion
by John Hill on May 19, 2005 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand
I conveniently used Mitre because, as you stated, I have a low opinion. He has never shown "star" material but rather a pedestrian organizational roster-filler player with a tiny bit of upside. That's certainly not the case with Sisco who made numerous top 100 lists if not top 50 lists after his first 2 years.
That's why we have great forums like this--to discuss our opinioins.
Are you a Cub fan?
by So Cal Bob on May 19, 2005 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do I always have to think of subject names?
Sisco's the better prospect.
Also, Sergio's answer to you calling him "a pedestrian organizational roster-filler player" was 6 scoreless innings last night (to outpitch Matt Cain). He allowed 5 hit and 2 walks and struckout a season-high 8 batters. I think he's trying to say he doesn't appreciate what you're saying and that he will see you next Tuesday in the big leagues!
By the way, the 186.2 IP, 225 H, 20 HR, 85 BB, 121 K, 5.59 ERA I listed above, that's how Greg Maddux started out his major league career. Now I'm not comparing Mitre to Maddux at all, because there isn't a comparison in terms of talent, but it just goes to show that judging a player upon the basis of their first few innings in the majors is a ridiculous way of going about things, and that, to an extent, is what you're doing.
by John Hill on May 20, 2005 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what?
I've seen him on tv and in person. The stuff just isn't there. Couple the lack of stuff as I've seen with my own eyes with the league average or below numbers, I can't call him a prospect. Maddux had excellent stuff and breezed through the minors as a dominant force, so I don't understand the use of him as an example. They are not similar, nor were they ever ranked as similar.
Obviously you have some Mitre stock. LOL! As a Cubs fanatic, I hope he becomes Maddux as I would like nothing more.
As for last night, even a blind squirrel finds a nut. Just kidding and hope you can see some humor in these posts.
by So Cal Bob on May 20, 2005 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
So why post his major league numbers then?
"Couple the lack of stuff as I've seen with my own eyes with the league average or below numbers, I can't call him a prospect."
Ah, you mean like...
2001 at Boise (Short-Season A-ball, aged 20)
91.0 IP, 3.07 ERA, ? HR, 18 BB, 71 K
2002 at Lansing (Low-A ball, aged 21)
168.2 IP, 2.83 ERA, 7 HR, 27 BB, 96 K
2003 at West Tenn (Double-A ball, aged 22)
145.2 IP, 3.34 ERA, 6 HR, 41 BB, 128 K
2004 at Iowa (Triple-A, aged 23)
102.2 IP, 2.98 ERA, 9 HR, 39 BB, 95 K
Total going into 2005
508 IP, 3.05 ERA, 22 + ? HR, 125 BB, 390 K
That's all of his minor league numbers going into this year (so I've not left any out), and that includes him often being young for his league and taking a double promotion effortlessly in his stride (and Triple-A is also an extreme hitting's park). Sorry, but the only unimpressive numbers Mitre has put up so far are in the majors (the ones you're claiming you're not using to evaluate him) and a small sample size at Iowa this year which is inflated by two starts at altitude.
"Maddux had excellent stuff and breezed through the minors as a dominant force, so I don't understand the use of him as an example. They are not similar, nor were they ever ranked as similar."
Yes, and I'm not saying they're similar. What I am saying is that if a pitcher as good as Maddux can struggle terribly at first, what chance do mere mortals like Mitre stand?
by John Hill on May 20, 2005 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you struggle reading my posts
John, why has he never been a Top Prospect? Why have the League Managers never given him a Top Prospect nod? The history book are filled with guys who have good seasons in A-Ball and AA. And for the record, he was not and is not "young" for his leagues. He signed out of a California JC in San Deigo and went to the NWL which is a college league. Then went to Low A as a 1st year player--like most players his age. Cubs bumped him in year 3 to AA. Right in line with top college propsects from his draft. After a good season, AAA was next. So, he was on a natural path, never rushed or young.
And I trust my eyes and judging of talent to know he'll never make it as anything more than a journeyman. You continue to look into numbers and miss the real fact that his stuff isn't very good. 88-92 with marginal control, a loopy curveball and a change that is below average in command and deception does not make for a prospect. Sorry. That's what my eyes have consistently seen from his big league days.
We beg to differ about Mitre. It's cool. I hope you are right and I am wrong as I want the Cubs to win the World Series every year and do it with players from their farm system.
by So Cal Bob on May 20, 2005 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't struggle at all
He's never been a top prospect because he's never going to be an ace starting pitcher. Prospect lists are all about upside, normally, and Mitre doesn't have much of that. What he does have, in my opinion, is the ability to be a league average starting pitcher.
The changeup you speak of has been refined since the last time he spot-started for the Cubs to the extent it's a much more effective pitch (he's actually been tougher on lefties than righties at Iowa so far this year, ironically), and he throws a slider, not a curve, by the way. And you won't find that many two seam fastballs faster than 92, and Mitre's has enough movement that he's able to churn out groundball after groundball. Also, I struggle to comprehend how you walk as few as Mitre does with only "marginal control" and "below average control" of two of three pitches. When I've seen him, he's always been able to spot his pitches well enough.
I take your point about him not being that young (as in Felix Pie young or something), but the average AAA prospect still isn't 23. It's a contentious enough point though that I'll willingly retract it if you retract your judgment of him having "league average or below numbers", which overwhelming isn't the case. When I provide the evidence of that, for you to say then that I can't look beyond the numbers is a bit ridiculous.
Anyway, all the best, Bob, agree to disagree. We'll see on Tuesday when Mitre will most probably be pitching against the Astros.
by John Hill on May 20, 2005 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
to answer your question
I guess I base most of my opinion in watching him throw and given his career MLB 1.82 WHIP. He just hasn't thrown strikes consistently and his stuff is average at best. So, I'll come off the point that his numbers in the minors and say they are average or slightly above.
I would question the "slider" you refer to. When it starts out at the hitters head and drops into the dirt at 74-76 MPH, that's a loopy curve. I have seen this on TV numerous times. I don't know how you can dispel this. And if he has come up with a change.
And if you saw the game yesterday, then you saw what a real prospect looks like--McCarthy is what I would like to see brought up instead of the Sergio likes.
Glad to see your passion for the Cubs. Again, I hope Mitre wins 20+ for the next 10 years. My thought is he won't ever win 5 in one season. Here's to hoping he proves me wrong.
by So Cal Bob on May 23, 2005 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Juan Cruz Trade
by John Hill on May 19, 2005 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Patterson...
by So Cal Bob on May 18, 2005 7:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dopirak
by grunts on May 18, 2005 10:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dopirak slow starter
by robg on May 19, 2005 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nolasco
What's Nolasco's projection? Middle of the rotation starter? Or better?
by scooter on May 19, 2005 6:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
from my observations
by So Cal Bob on May 19, 2005 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs













