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The Merits, or lack thereof, of teams having professional scouts

So I spent the 2nd day in a row at the ballpark, watching the Arizona State Sun Devils take on my beloved Arizona Wildcats.

For anyone who's had a chance to attend a baseball game at ASU's home, Packard stadium, you'd notice an interesting dynamic. The school has knocked out seats beyond First and Third base, and replaced them which huge berms of grass, giving the stadium a spring training look. If you were to watch on TV, you'd see a handful of people amongst empty seats behind home plate, but a pan down the lines would reveal a packed house out in the "General Admission" areas, of families, college students and other picnicking and relaxing while watching a game.

Bear with me, I promise I have a point buried in here somewhere.

So it's this environment that allowed me to pick up three straight games, in the same seat, Row 5 on the Field level, just behind home plate. Right in front of a row reserved every home game for the major league scouts

Last night (Saturday) for an evening game, I counted seven people in that row, all toting Stalker Sport Radar guns. Today (Sunday), I counted nine in all sitting in that row using the same guns. Some were repeats, but about half were different than Saturday night. (I swear the weird oddity of it all, nearly a dozen pro sports teams going in different directions, and every one of them uses the same brand of radar gun).

What shocked me, in the last two days, is how little "scouting", at least to the naked eye of mine; it appeared that any of these guys actually did during a two game set.

All the scouts busted out the radar guns for the 1st inning. If you were to glance over, it looked like a gathering of the Local Motorbike Cops 403. However, after the first inning, the guns went away, never to be seen again.
Just below the scouting row, two other souls plugged away at this task, charting and clocking every pitch of both teams. They could be spotted by their corresponding school colors, one maroon, the other blue.

But those whose job it was to be there that day, seemed to have guns that didn't function after 1 inning. To me, what speed a pitcher's throwing in the fifth inning, is just as important, if not more so, than the first.

In essence, for a group that's been beleaguered by a certain segment of the baseball "family", the last two days worth of scouting the scouts has impressed upon me in all the wrong ways about what's wrong with scouting in baseball.

If I were a team owner, and I were to watch this spectacle, I'd be telling my GM to get out some pink slips on Monday.

Literally the moment ASU's RF Travis Buck came to bat and promptly got out for the second time, two scouts from the Yanks and Rangers got up and left. Keep in mind, both at bats came in the middle of an inning. The 4th Inning that is. Just packed up their stuff and left

Just for the sake of checking, I looked to see if there were any 5A or 4A games going on today in HS sports in town. I can find none. So what's the value in leaving early? Buck, who's rumored by Baseball America to be a possible first round/supplemental round pick, had two terrible ABs. Will either bother to check that Buck absolutely hit the tar out of the ball on his third at bat, only to have it taken away as a hit by a great dive by the UA RF? Will either know that they missed Buck throw a laser nailing someone at home late in the game, when the final score was long decided? Maybe there was a CC game to see. Maybe both have to travel. Or maybe both decided it was 93 outside and they wanted to go back to their hotel room after getting a "good" look at a potential No. 1 pick.

There was a four inning stretch today, where I glanced thru the row, and saw not a single notepad out. I've known some people with great memories, but a whole batch of guys who are observing something and don't find the need to write any of it down? Not writing something is one thing, but not even having the opportunity to do so? Even more noteworthy, during that four inning stretch, the UA lineup batted three times, ASU's twice. A lot of at bats there for guys to watch the approaches, the hits, how they take pitches, etc. Guess that's not key in the whole scheme of things

Two scouts I saw had stopwatches timing guys. One spent 1 1/2 innings arguing w/ his wife about something their daughter did the night before. Another was talking to his son for a solid 10 minutes. Two more spent quite a bit of time comparing wrist grips from that morning's golf game at the Raven in Scottsdale. I know which course because they wouldn't stop talking about what a great desert course it was. One on the end couldn't get enough flirting w/ the cute blonde co-ed who was bringing drinks to the whole Field Level section.

All of this happened right in front of me, for about 8 hours the last two days. I get one more go of it tomorrow.

If I've ever wondered what a crapshoot the major league draft is, the idea that every one of these guys will play a major hand in shaping it for billionaire owners and millionaire players, just blows my mind.

I was essentially dumbfounded, and if I was leaning towards the Stats side of the great Stats v. Scouting debate, this little escapade has pushed me strongly towards the Stats side, never to return.

The only tags I saw on guys, was that one wore a Rangers shirt, one a Royals hat, one had a Yankee logo on his radar gun, and another had a Brewers bag he was toting.

Anyone else who's witnessed the opposite, or has something else to contribute please do so, because this was an eye opening experience indeed.

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Scouts
I went to a Cal League game late last year.  There were a bunch of scouts in the stands with their radar guns.  I was trying to figure out who they were watching.  I think it was Brooks McNivan of the San Jose Giants.  There were trade rumors at the time about the Giants acquiring Jose Mesa from Pittsburgh and I think McNivan was the bait.  Anyway.  They worked in pairs with one guy holding the gun and another guy taking notes.  They appeared to be quite professional.  I know that's a different situation than scouting college and HS before the draft, but you'd think they'd be on their toes this close to the draft.

by DrBGiantsfan on May 17, 2005 8:42 AM EDT   0 recs

Scouts
With two high profile schools like you mentioned, it may just be a case of being the only game in town that day.  Most area scouts spend the early part of the season taking in college games as they get an earlier start than the high schools.  It may be a case where they have seen Buck etc. numerous times and were there basically because there was a game in town but their evaluations on those players were mostly complete.

by PolkCountyRay on May 17, 2005 9:02 AM EDT   0 recs

Judging?
This close to the draft, the majority of the scouting is probably done and these guys are more than likely cross-checking the information produced in earlier scouting reports.

I doubt that any team that is looking Buck would be seeing him for the first time this past weekend. They are looking for something new, something to gain. And Buck didn't impress a couple of guys at all. A couple of my friends tried out for the Cincinnati Reds and I went along just to get a feel for the experience and was talking to a couple of the scouts and they said that within 5 minutes of starting drills they knew the players that had a chance. Then you hone in on those players, obviously nobody was exciting them at the ASU-AU series.

As to the McNivan situation they are in tandem just like you use three guys to scout high school football. You have limited time and opportunities to see a player when a deal is offered so you use the extra set of eyes to get as many chances to see him play as possible.

by rockies73 on May 17, 2005 9:08 AM EDT   0 recs

Scouts
Agree with what has been said. Any four corners scout who NEEDS to sit and watch Buck hit four times  in Mid May has obviously not covered their area completely. At this point in the year with the exception of senior signs and D&F's it is more or less out of the hands of the area guys with Crosscheckers, national guys and scouting directors coming in.

While it is easy to assume what these guys weren't doing please remember what they could have been doing.

I gather from your writing that you saw the team on Sunday which is typically regarded as a less exciting scouting day as you tend to see #3 starters and/or underclassmen and thus one inning with the radar gun may have sufficed.

The scouts who you said left right at the time of Buck's AB more than likely went down the line to see Buck hit from his open side and either stayed down there for the remainder of the game or went home and worked on reports as writing guys up and keeping in contact with the home office is a full time job in itself not to mention being on the road away from your family for over 200 days a year.

As for the question about pro coverage. I cover the Cal League so more than likely I was at that game last summer. It is very rare for extra scouts  to be brought in to evaluate a player for a trade during the summer, at least I never saw such a scene at the 115 games I scouted at last summer.

 I imagine what you were seeing was the San Jose players charting McNiven (the one player using the gun and the other charting gave it away). Most teams have professional scouting staffs that cover    minor league and big league teams for trade and free agent purposes. After the draft most teams will send their Area scouts out to do pro coverage as well to get a second look at the players the pro staff has already scene as well as give the amatuer scouts an opportunity to gain a sense of perspective by seeing more and better players.

Hope this sheds some light.

by CalLeaguer on May 17, 2005 11:29 AM EDT   0 recs

Scouting Brooks McNivan
I saw the guys who were working with the Giants. They were signalling back and forth with Trevor Wilson.  There were at least 3 other sets of scouts.  Maybe some of them were just very intense fans or freelancers like yourself.  BTW.  I really like your website.  Anyway, there were at least 5 or 6 speed guns in the stands that night and they only seemed to be out when McNivan was pitching.  Now, I wouldn't think McNivan would be the type of pitcher that would attract a scouting convention.  The only thing I could come up with, and this is pure conjecture on my part, was that there were a lot of rumors swirling at the time about the Giants trying to acquire a closer by trade and that McNivan was one of the minor league pitchers that they were willing to part with.

by DrBGiantsfan on May 17, 2005 8:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

great discussion...
...I agree with all the replies, and would only add that if the scouts put away their radar guns in the first, either:

a) they had seen the pitchers before and just wanted to confirm that the velocity hadn't changed

b) or they were looking at someone new and most likely weren't impressed with the velocity.  

As far as the stats/scouting debate, Oakland started ignoring the scouts in '02 and the chickens are coming home to roost.

By the way, is where do most scouts learn their trade?  Is there a school they attend or is it just experience?  I'm retired and wouldn't mind doing some of it.

by alstl04 on May 17, 2005 1:04 PM EDT   0 recs

Scouting School
Hi know MLB runs scouting schools out of the Dominican and i think Florida.

here is a fantastic series from MLB.com i think you will all enjoy if you are just looking for some insight on what scouts are taught in Scouting School.  

ok! ok! Blue Jays! Blue Jays! Lets! Play! Ball!

by BJ Birdie on May 17, 2005 1:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Also in AZ
There is also one in Arizona that I know a writer from Baseball America (I think) attended a year or so ago and did a feature story on what they learned.

If you are really interested in scouting (as a hobby) I'd contact a local college and talk to them about their recruiting efforts and if you can help them. Most colleges (especially the smaller ones) have limited budgets and would love the help.

Doing it professionally could be a tough egg to crack. These schools will train you for what you need to know, the 20-80 scale for instance, and give you an idea on how to spot a good player. What is a good time for catcher release to second, time to first, etc. But to actually land a gig is tough and takes some luck. So if you could show that you've done a good job scouting at the college level it can only help the resume.

by rockies73 on May 18, 2005 1:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I can share a personal story
about how quirky the scouting game can be.  My sophomore season of JC ball, I was heavily recruited.  Also, I was draft eligible.  My dad videotaped my at bats so we could view them later on that night.  As I was in the on deck circle a scout came over and asked me "to run it out real good" so he could get a time to first on me.  Well, I hit a HR this at-bat and ran hard out of the box making the turn as I was unsure if it was going out.  After crossing the plate and coming back to the dugout, the scout leaned over at the fence and told me, "You ran real good!  Good job."  I laugh about it as I have this on video--did he notice I hit the ball out of the park?  Did he notice I made a turn as if I was going for a 2B?  That was not a legit time to 1B as I didn't run straight through the bag.  Needless to say, I've been an advocate of a more stats based approach.  :-)

by So Cal Bob on May 17, 2005 1:07 PM EDT   0 recs

whoa there...
I used to be more weighted towards a statistical based approach until my eyes were really opened to how easily misled one can be by the way we compile our statistics.  i've posted this before, but it incapsulates my new found thoughts on the matter.

________________
A friend really got me thinking...if you are evaluating players largely based on statistics, is there more to account for the difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter aside from talent?  This was born out of him trying to convince me that past performance is not such a big indicator of future performance (he had a hard time convincing me).

While i know park factors are virtually mainstream considerations now including "environmental"  factors such as thin air and turf, the issue was posed to me framed in a major league instance, though it can be looked at from a draft perspective as well:

if i were a gm looking to sign a bat, should i not consider a .270 hitter from a weak AL East team on par (or close to) with a .300 hitter from a weaker division, let's use the AL central.  His thinking was that the .270 hitter would have to face the likes of Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Roy Halladay and other less notables but still well above average pitchers more often because of the weighted schedule whereas the .300 hitter from the AL Central won't have to face such extraordinary pitchers (beyond Johan Santana) in their most heavily weighted group of teams in their sched (i guess that would include Sabathia, Buehrle, Bonderman)

Over time, especially when you consider deep rotations in NY and Bos (arguable perhaps), shouldn't more attention be given to this line of thinking?  I mean the difference is just 16-18 hits over an entire season.  For instance, the .275 hitter might see RJ, Schilling and Halladay an extra 2 times each, which might result (~4ab per game) in 24ab in total.  I realize that wouldn't account for 16-18 extra hits, but it could potentially make a big dent in that number.

I can imagine instances where the level of opposition pitchers is even wider.  And then the same artgument can be made for pitchers who are in the same division as great hitting teams.

This applies to any kind of statistic you can compile, OPS, Sec avg etc.

I think Rob Neyer has touched on this in the past, and i wouldn't be suprised if Bill James has.  I really can't get my head around it and has made me far more cynical in valuating statistics.

I'd love to hear thoughts on this
________________

i'm lucky enough to work with ball players at an amateur level as they become eligible to be drafted or more likely begin considering US College scholarships.  So, naturally i feel scouting capabilities are very important, moreso now than ever.

Radars and Clipboards all have their place.  But often is the case that scouts go to see a certain player (especially this time of year) and are looking for certain things.  There is a huge difference between seeing a player for the first time and say the fifth time with some context.

Furthermore, let's use our favourite Moneyball whipping boy Jeremy Brown.  Yes, he was a very good college player, but scouts were confident there wasn't much ceiling left to reach for, which when you consider the level of talent between college and the show is huge, exemplifies why scouting capabilities are so important.  Statistics don't do a good job when it comes to projectability...and isn't that the name of the game when it comes to drafting?

ok! ok! Blue Jays! Blue Jays! Lets! Play! Ball!

by BJ Birdie on May 17, 2005 1:57 PM EDT   0 recs

I don't get it?
In your "case study" aren't you going deeper into statistical analysis of a given player, i.e. the .275 hitter versus a .300 hitter?  The rationale on why a .275 hitter may be a better player in a different division?  That is not a subjective (scouting) analysis at all.  That is merely a statistical dive.

Jeremy Brown is a solid player.  He was never mentioned as Johnny Bench.  And he fit the "mold" for what Beane and DePodesta were trying to convey.  And the stats showed that Brown was a good and patient hitter.  Well, the average hasn't been as high, but he has controlled the strike zone as his stats projected from college.

Obviously both sides are needed as their are too many subjective factores to weigh for each and every player.

by So Cal Bob on May 17, 2005 2:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes - too many subjective factors...
what i was trying to do was open the door to the need for further more concise statistical analysis should statistics be given greater weight.  Indeed, it wasn't meant to portray subjective analysis, but more the absense of legitimate value in the statistics we base many of our valuations on (i'm not saying throw out the statistics we use by any means however).  In short, subjective analysis will always hold a certain value for each director.  I'm not sure i can convince any of the readers here to change their valuation of subjective analysis.  But i think the value of statistical based analyses is far more up for discussion, and as i am sure many professionals would agree, has far more room for advancement.  This statistical phenomenon is a fairly new area of study when you look at baseball's grand history.

Don't get me wrong, statistics are important and in a grander sense, an integral part of why we love baseball.  I was more responding to the the last few readers' seeming aversion for scout-based analysis, thereby becoming more of a believer in statistically-based analyses.  

Furthermore, i would probably be one of the more staunch supporters of Beane's moneyball draft.  I think lost by some over the argument regarding that draft was that Beane had far too many high picks to draft straight up given his budgetary constaints.  Obviously he needed to get creative and draft guys who are willing to sign within the budget slots he had established.  My point on Brown was  more geared towards how some had valued Brown as an upper echelon prospect because he excelled in certain statistical areas.  Shoved somewhat into the background was exactly how translatable those numbers would be to MLB competition.  Scouts could see that he was willing to stroke basehits and was patient just like his college numbers suggested.  But they would likely have argued translating those abilities to MLB would be far more difficult than some statistcally-based analyses might have predicted.

agreed, both sides are needed, but that is just my dime's worth on why subjective analysis shouldn't be dismissed as quickly as some seem to.

ok! ok! Blue Jays! Blue Jays! Lets! Play! Ball!

by BJ Birdie on May 17, 2005 4:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I get your point now.
Agreed.  If you don't have both sides of player evaluation, then something is missing.

by So Cal Bob on May 17, 2005 4:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

but...
the factors you mention in your example are quantifiable things.  There is enough information available and there are enough smart people around that the quality of pitching faced can be evaluated statistically.  A stats-based evaluation that doesn't include them is simply incomplete.

On your larger point, however, I think it's foolish for anyone to think that you can evaluate talent solely with either approach.  There's a middle ground somewhere, and it may take a while to find.  It's an exciting time to be a fan of this game.  I just wish there wasn't so much unsavory sniping from both sides (something I'm glad not to see much here, by the way).

by creynolds on May 17, 2005 3:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It's kept track of
Baseball Prospectus keeps track of a stat called "Batter's Quality of Pitchers Faced."  Questions like these don't invalidate stats, they merely expand the range of stats that are valuable to look at.

I'm a big fan of stats, but I also recognize their limits.  Stats tend to do well at explaining what happened, but can do very little to answer why it happened.  If a player suffers a sudden spike in production, or a sudden dip, it's scouting that is better equipped to explain it.  

by jhelfgott on May 18, 2005 1:35 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

stats vs scouting
Stats vs. Scouting.

it is not an either-or thing. You need both.

by John Sickels on May 17, 2005 3:59 PM EDT   0 recs

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