Prospect Retrospective: Jake Peavy

by John Sickels on May 17, 2005 1:57 PM EDT in News

Jake Peavy Delivers (AP)

Jake Peavy was drafted by the Padres in the 15th round in 1999, out of high school in Mobile, Alabama. Although scouts liked his long-term potential, most people thought he was going to go to college at Auburn. If considered signable, he would have probably been a fourth or fifth round pick. Anyhow, the Padres signed him, and he emerged as a prospect quickly by going 9-1, 1.17 with a 103/24 K/BB n his first 85 pro innings. Sure, it was rookie ball, but those are awesome numbers. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2000 book, noting that his career was off to an excellent start. He threw just 88 MPH most of the time, but improved velocity would drive him up the prospect lists quickly.

Peavy's velocity did improve in 2000, up into the low 90s. He maintained his sharp command and control, and went 13-8, 2.90 with a 164/53 K/BB in 134 innings for Class A Fort Wayne. In the '01 book, I ranked him at Grade B+ and an "Honorable Mention" on the top prospects list.

Peavy split '01 between Class A Lake Elsinore and Double-A Mobile, combining for a 188/45 K/BB ratio. In 28 innings in Double-A, he fanned 44 men. I rated him at Grade A- and the number 14 prospect in the game.

Peavy began the next year at Mobile, going 4-5 but with a 2.80 ERA in 14 starts. He was promoted to the Majors at that point, going 6-7, 4.52 as a 21 year old. A decent season in '03 set him up for a breakthrough in '04.

For a 15th round pick, Peavy made rapid progress. His minor league track record is marked by strong ratios in all categories, K/IP, K/BB, and H/IP all excellent. He also gave up very few home runs, an underrated statistical marker for young pitchers. There was no deterioration when he reached Double-A, another good sign.

If he had gone to Auburn, Peavy would have re-entered the draft as a junior in 2002. Assuming that he pitched as well in college as he did in the pros, he would have been a certain first-round pick and likely a top ten choice.

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Rotation of the Future..

John,

I remember hearing about him, Tankersley, and Ollie 3-4 years ago and how they were going to be the front of their rotation. Peavy clearly has been the best but Ollie isnt far behind if he can turn things around. So this begs the question, what happened to Tankersley? I guess you could also ask, what is going on with Ollie? Is he experiencing a "dead arm" for logging so many innings in his first full year in the bigs, last year? Inquiring minds want to know! :)

P.s. Thanks for the write-up on Peavy!

by sgsemu on May 17, 2005 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

Tankersley

Seem to recall that he is in KC now, and that he has a "bad attitude/not willing to work" rep that made SC give up on him after a few bad major league starts, and is now contributing to the Royals keeping him down on the farm.

by dcarrano on May 17, 2005 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

SD, not SC

typo

by dcarrano on May 17, 2005 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I love this guy

He's my favorite pitcher in baseball. I'm lucky to live in S.D. and get 140 games on the local cable. He pitches with a "fire-in-the-belly" attitude--Gibson-esque. I do see a Cy Young(s) in his future.

I believe Tank lost some velo--down to 90-92 from his 94-96 days. I think his attitude and stuff petered-out to a certain degree.

by So Cal Bob on May 17, 2005 3:00 PM EDT reply actions

Similar Players

Why no similarity comparisons?

by smokhaus on May 17, 2005 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

Here ya go

not really my place to do it but here

According to Baseball-Reference.Com, the top 10 most similar players through age 23 - a very interesting list.

1. Andy Benes (979)
2. Chuck Estrada (973)
3. Bill Stafford (973)
4. Dennis Martinez (973)
5. Johnny Kucks (972)
6. Stan Williams (971)
7. John Smoltz (968)
8. Don Robinson (967)
9. Bill Parsons (966)
10. Silvio Martinez (965)

by sasquatch83 on May 17, 2005 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

PECOTA comps for Jake Peavy

Here are the top 20 PECOTA comparables for Jake Peavy on his 2005 card (sub. req'd). An even more interesting list.

Don Sutton
Kevin Appier
Pete Smith
Joe Coleman
Clay Kirby
Milt Pappas
Richard Dotson
Josh Beckett
Camilo Pascual
Don Gullett
Arnie Portocarrero
Gary Gentry
Jon Matlack
Herm Wehmeier
Tom Seaver
Javier Vazquez
Art Mahaffey
Reggie CLeveland
Melido Perez
Mike McCormick

by diakron on May 17, 2005 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Observation

John, in all of the Prospect Retrospectives that you've run so far, every single one has received a grade of no better than C+ in their first year. Granted most of the prospects are being graded at the rookie ball level or A-ball at best, but I still find it hard to believe that the best prospects (Peavy for example) can only pull a C+ grading.

Peavy's numbers, to me, would probably garner at least a B- grading, even taking into consideration his age and level of competition. Those numbers are just too strong to ignore.

Then again, maybe that's why I'm just a participant and you're the one evaluating the talent.

by lenred on May 18, 2005 12:21 AM EDT reply actions

grades

Part of this may reflect changes in my own methodology. I'm probably a bit more aggressive nowadays about grading players at the lowest levels than I was back in the 90s.

by John Sickels on May 18, 2005 9:19 AM EDT reply actions

probably...

...the best young right-handed pitcher in the NL...

-peter http://Padres.MostValuableNetwork.com & http://padresrundown.blogspot.com

by PeterF on May 18, 2005 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

The 3rd pitch theory

Jake really became an elite player when he got his changeup to the point where he can throw it all the time. (See Adam Eaton for a guy who should go there more).

He was good before; he's elite now. How many pitchers these days are elite with two pitches? Randy Johnson is the only one I know of.

It's a far cry from earlier in baseball history, like when Steve Carlton (pre-slider) basically just threw fastballs.

For me, I don't think it is very likely that a pitcher can go from above average to great without that third option (and a changeup or similar change of pace). They end up much like Adam or others -- slightly frustrating as you wonder if they will ever reach their full potential.

by Alan @ Minor League Ball on May 18, 2005 5:56 PM EDT reply actions