Top 20 Review

by John Sickels on May 13, 2005 3:17 PM EDT in News Comment 22 comments

Huston Street as a Texas Longhorn

Oakland Athletics Top 20 Prospect Review

I want to start reviewing the Top 20 lists I did a couple of months ago, take a snapshot of where these players are right now. We'll start with Oakland, which was the first Top 20 list I did.

Dan Meyer: Pitching poorly in Triple-A, now out with a shoulder injury of some sort. Reportedly not serious but who knows?
Daric Barton: Hitting .254/.363/.333 at Stockton. This is not nearly as good as expected, but appendectomy recovery may be limiting his strength.
Huston Street: Pitching well in the majors.
Nick Swisher: Out with a shoulder injury.
Joe Blanton: ERA looks good at 3.22, but I'm worried about the K/BB of 13/12 in 36 IP.
Omar Quintanilla: Hitting .285/.309/.423 for Double-A Midland. I'd like to see his OBP come up; his plate discipline has been disappointing this year.
Richie Robnett: Hitting .257/.329/.392 at Stockton. Like Barton, he is underachieving.
Jairo Garcia: Pitched brilliantly in Double-A, now in Triple-A.
Dan Johnson: Hitting .305/.396/.527 at Triple-A Sacramento. He's ready. Can he find a place to play?
Kurt Suzuki: Hitting .305/.398/.448 at Stockton, doing very well, as expected.
Javier Herrara: Hitting .238/.338/.413 at Kane County. Biggest problem is steroid suspension.
Danny Putnam: Hitting .303/.364/.459 at Stockton, doing very well, as expected.
Brian Snyder: Extended spring training, rib cage injury.
Landon Powell: Injured knee. Out for season.
Tyler Johnson: Returned to the Cardinals under Rule 5.
Andre Ethier: .402/.455/.669 at Midland. On fire, pushing his way up the prospect ladder rapidly through the development of power.
Brad Knox: Extended spring training.
Jason Windsor: 4.71 ERA at Stockton, but with an excellent 43/6 K/BB ratio in 36 innings.
Brad Sullivan: Extended spring training.
Ryan Webb: 3-1, 2.84 ERA with 25/5 K/BB in 32 innings. Doing well.

Stock Rising:
Garcia, Suzuki, Putnam, Ethier.
Stock Dropping:
Meyer. Want to wait a bit longer before worrying about Barton and Robnett.
Keep an Eye On:
Brant Colamarino, 1B
Dustin Majewski, OF
Vasili Spanos, 3B
Dallas Braden, LHP
Kevin Melillo, 2B

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Barton projection

Limited data with the Daric Barton entries, but here are the results.
At Modesto, 83 games, 259 at-bats, .337 BA, .448 OBP, .562 SLG, 14 homers, 53 walks, 41 strikeouts.
There weren't enough clear entries for a Double-A projection.

Got my nats tickets. Lousy Seats: opening night(D'backs), 5/14(Cubs). Good Seats: 6/2(Braves), 6/9(A's), 7/5(Mets)

by natsfan2005 on May 13, 2005 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my takes

Meyer's struggles are indeed troubling, but last year his AAA rate stats were pretty pedestrian after the callup. His ERA was deceptive, he wasn't really ready for prime time. Now that he has to deal with adversity for the first time, we'll see. Not inspiring in any case.
The other MLB ready guys, Blanton, Street, Swisher and Johnson look good. Swisher was making good adjustments when he went down, still needs to learn on the job, but his power will play.
Barton will be fine, when you watch him you just know. Robnett looks like he has a lot more to work out in his hitting approach, his tools are indeed impressive. Putnam is a very polished hitter, will more of his line drives go for extra bases? He can play LF, but must eventually show power. Suzuki is tiny, he looks great, but is hard to see how he'll get much more power from that frame.
Perry and Quintanilla both got off to horid starts in Midland and have responded well. Perry especially has cut his K rate down.
Garcia has filthy stuff still, AAA walk rate will be the biggest thing to watch.
Rheinecker, Etherton, Watson, and Cust though not prospects are doing very well to keep themselves in the mix for future roster slots.
Ethier has made the leap, it will be fun to watch and see what he can do the rest of the season.
Rouse is my pick for the sleeper prospect in their system, much more so than e.g. Colamarino.
Majewski is a very good fielder, he won't need to hit as much as the other guys to earn a role for himself. I'd like to see him replace Ethier in AA mid-season.
Melillo can hit, clearly.
Braden will be really fun to watch, his 24th round status makes a great story. We'll all get to see if he can stay a starter and avoid being anointed the next Mecir.
Ryan Webb sounds like he has a really soild head on his sholders. Sounds like his dad is really his coach.

by jakarta on May 13, 2005 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Defending Mecir/ Braden comparison.

Mecir is great person to be compared to in my mind. I think (us A's Fans in particular forget how good he truly was.)

1998 3.11 ERA in 84 IP
1999 2.61 ERA
2000 2.97 ERA in 85 IP And was a HUGE reason A's made playoff's.
2001 3.43 ERA

Now injuries (2 club feet and all) really have limited him in recent years but to have stuff like Mecir means you will be a top flight set up man. Even last year when A's fans got frusterated with him he had a sub 4 ERA. And this year he is at 3.11

I think everyone would be estatic if Braden was another Mecir.

by novaoakland on May 13, 2005 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree that becoming another mecir is great

become valuable to any team, make lots of money, deserve it, great out of a 24th round pick.

and my point is that Braden has shown enough that he could legitimately already be a prospect to be another mecir. But that to become another Fernando (to pick a high K, lefty screwballer that surged quickly to big things as a starter) is a more fun dream, and a projection that though far, far away, would make him a great prospect.

by jakarta on May 13, 2005 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meyer

So where does Meyer rate now? I assume he's not still the #1 prospect in the system. I don't know if re-doing the rankings is too much work, but if not, I think I'd find it really useful.

by adesai on May 13, 2005 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

rankings

At this point I don't want to redo the rankings significantly....the sample sizes are still small.

In Meyer's case we need to see how serious his injury is.

by John Sickels on May 13, 2005 5:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

garcia vs. streets

Who looks more like the long term closer there? I have been impressed watching Street this season, but Garcia sounds like he has the tools to close as well.

by franchise on May 13, 2005 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

both

Either could close. Garcia is more of the classic power closer type, but Street is hardly a soft-tosser. I'd probably go with Street in the medium term since his command is more reliable.

by John Sickels on May 13, 2005 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re

Jairo's pitches have much less movement. Street's fastball is practically a screwball with the run, and his splitter is nasty. Not that Jairo is chopped liver. Street is just special.

Why didn't Mabeus make the top 20? I know he's on the DL, but I've always read that his stuff is good, and his control looks fine.

by bootsy on May 13, 2005 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Probably a really bad comparison

But keeping it in terms of A's closers:

In my mind Jario is a Dotel type great stuff but can get wild.
Street is a foulke type guy. decent stuff, good location, Clutch!!!.

Both make good closers but my weak heart and graying hair perfer Street.

by novaoakland on May 13, 2005 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jairo is not a dotel type

He IS Dotel.

Dotel: 6 feet, 210.
Garcia: 6 feet 164

by ohad on May 13, 2005 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK that is a tad freaky

Nice one

by novaoakland on May 13, 2005 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On Garcia...

...I don't think I've EVER seen that grip before....does anyone know what that is? Looks kind of like a palm ball designed to slide a bit or something...

by Brickhaus on May 14, 2005 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think thats his changeup

Which is basically a palmball...

by ohad on May 15, 2005 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just wanted to point out

That Quintanilla started terriblly. Just horrilby.

And also that Jeremy Brown: .250 .405 .432 with 3 homers, 15 rbi's 5 doubles and unbelieveably 1 triple in 105 PA's. He has 17 walks, 6 HBPs against 19 K's. Lets see, thats a walk once every 6 PA's.

Possibly restoring prospect status?

by ohad on May 13, 2005 7:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wither Herrera?

I see that you don't list Herrera as either dropping or rising or worth keeping an eye on. Now that the steroid thing is behind him, do you think he will not live up to his B rating? Or is it just too soon to tell?

by FunWithHeadlines on May 13, 2005 9:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

too soon

Too soon to tell.

by John Sickels on May 13, 2005 10:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't suppose....

...you'd like to comment on Jeremy Brown for all us Moneyball readers...

by superpriebe on May 14, 2005 1:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

as this page fades away

it looks like Barton and Herrera are picking it up a bit, both had been in slumps.

Since John's post Friday Barton has gone from .254/.363/.333 to .266/.391/.387 after today. A week or so ago Barton was hitting in the .230s

Herrera has gone from .238/.338/.413 on Friday to .263/.345/.474 after today's game. A week or so ago Herrera was hitting .196/.281/.357

by jakarta on May 16, 2005 1:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Garcia/Dotel: Seperated at birth?

Jairo Garcia IS similar to Dotel in some ways. But there are differences. Jairo's fastball is faster (94-98 mph) than Dotel's (90-94) has been this season. It's also not as straight. His slider has a sharper break as well (and unlike Dotel he uses it often). Garcia also has a decent changeup to battle left-handed hitters. Dotel often will walk lefties because they look for a fastball in to sit on and he'll rarely come inside against them. If Garcia's command continues to improve he'll definitely give Street some serious competition in the A's future closer competition.

by FabulousG on May 16, 2005 2:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs