ALL QUESTIONS ANSWERED THREAD

Krynzel is hard to project. He's a good athlete and has a good glove, but his batting record is erratic and he hasn't been handled particularly well. My guess is that he winds up as a reserve outfielder down the road.

He could be a Jeter-type down the road if he develops as expected and cuts back on the Ks.

Housman has some weirdness in his record. He allows a very large number of unearned runs. Some of that could be due to bad luck obviously, but he's very dependent on good defense to survive.

Garrett Mock in Arizona? J.P. Howell in KC? Bill Bray in Washington? You have to find the right combination of an advanced pitcher with a team that sucks.

I put out a top 50/50 list in my book. I will update that at various points in the season. Most of the time that will just be for newsletter subscribers (hey, I have to make a living) but I'll probably post a mid-season update here.

Upside: Eric Karros.

I imagine he will start the year in Class A, but given how aggressive the D-Rays are with promoting prospects, a fast start could get him into Double-A quickly. That may depend on how he adjusts with the glove.

Either way, Stewart will have the job by 2008 at the latest, by '07 quite possibly, and maybe by September '06. There's no real need to rush him with Atkins and Baker available as options. Let one or the other of those guys get some value established so you can trade them when Stewart is ready.

Robnett: power/speed guy who came out of nowhere at Fresno State last year. In Billy Beane's dreams, he's a cross between Kirby Puckett and Jimmy Wynn. Might happen...might not. But an interesting prospect.

Street doesn't throw as hard as Wagner, but has superior control.

Again, with Jackson I think there is a good chance of a rebound as long as he remains healthy.

The good news for Pickering is that he has an option left, and the Royals do seem aware of his talents as well as his weaknesses. If he doesn't make the team, it seems unlikely that they would just cut him. Rather, he'll go back to Omaha and wait for Sweeney to get hurt.

I think what you see is what you get with Phillips. His true level of talent is between 2003 and 2004, about his career numbers.

Toonces and Spot are fine. Spot's diabetes is under control with insulin shots. Toonces is very frisky and spry for a cat who turns 13 this year.

Arnold has really slipped. He's lost the zip on his fastball, has had some health woes, and can no longer be considered a top prospect. I think he peaked too early.

Hudgins is a better bet. There's some risk of Justin Wayne/Jeff Austin-Polished-Stanford-Pitcher-Who-Doesn't-Develop-As-Expected-Syndrome, but he's still a better bet than Arnold or Jenks at this stage.

Doubt: Let's see. Discouting pitchers who are unpredictable, big mistakes include Ruben Rivera, George Arias, and Brandon Phillips (so far). Gabe Gross needs to get things in gear fast too.  

Certainly, the Red Sox drafting has improved over the last two years.

Personally, I think the most effective way to build a farm system is to do a mixture of high school and college talent, leaning to the college side, but not being afraid to mix in the occasional high school player. A system that does nothing but draft college guys runs the risk of ending up with a bunch of Grade C+/B- prospects, but with no real impact prospects. A system that drafts nothing but high school guys may end up with one or two hot prospects, but a whole bunch of guys who are good at football or track but can't play baseball. If you screw up a tool-oriented raw-high school draft, you really screw up.

I think the potential of the Big 12 is immense since the merger of the Big 8 with the various Texas schools. The Big 10 is handicapped more by the weather.

He's close to ready and in my opinion deserves the first shot in the rotation. He doesn't have Durbin's pure velocity, but is more efficient and less likely to have some sort of spectacular blowout/meltdown/injury.

I'm not sure she's really into the steroid type. I think she prefers natural beefcake. Her favorite lustbunny is Rick Springfield, the pop star from the 70s and 80s.

Johnson vs. Hatteberg: Johnson would hit more home runs, would draw about the same number of walks, would strike out more and have a lower batting average.

1. I like Papelbon a lot. The only negative I see is his age-relative-to-league in the Florida State League last year, although that is forgivable since he had less experience pitching in college than many guys in his age group. He could be a number two/three starter if everything works out.
2. Murphy has been a major disappointment, partially due to injury but even when healthy he has not hit as expected. Grade C until he proves differently.
3. Surprise players...well, if I really knew it wouldn't be a surprise! Actually I think at least one of the college pitchers drafted by the Sox last year in the middle rounds will break through faster than expected and do well in Double-a this year.

I want to see some actual in-season performance before getting too excited about instructional league reports.

Peavy wins the most games in his career.

If his velocity doesn't slip further, I see him as an effective inning-eater, not an ace but a solid pitcher.

Ruiz: 26-year-old catcher, hit .284 with 17 homers last year in Double-A. Good glove, had never hit that way before, and will have to prove it wasn't a fluke. Possible reserve catcher down the road.

If they let him play he could hit .250-.275 with lots of steals, but his true value will depend on how good his OBP is.

That and $3.57 will get you a cup of coffee.

Remember when coffee was 50 cents and didn't have candy in it?

Wright otherwise.

If Mauer's knee is OK, him. I think Upton has a higher physical ceiling than Wright, but I wouldn't turn any of them down. Put a gun to my head and I think I'd say Upton but it isn't slam dunk.

I think Kendrick is the best athlete of the group, Lewis the most polished. Best bat Kendrick. Best glove. . .Lewis right now but Nix isn't bad and Kendrick should be good with more experience.

Original Trek is campy sometimes and the sets are dated. But it was the best television show produced in the 1960s, with outstanding characters and, at it's best, top-notch writing. All other Treks owe everything to it.

Wait until my book about Romulans comes out in April.  

SEC is obviously strong. Pac 10. ACC and Big 12 are underrated. Then you have other strong programs scattered in weaker conferences (Wichita State for example).

Sheffield is also outstanding. Thomas at his peak was one of the top 10 hitters in history.

I'm not a stat-fundamentalist...I recognize that there are difficult-to-measure factors.

Buck has the firmest hold on a job right now so he'd be first given current data. Molina doesn't have the same kind of bat. Closser's value may be inflated by Coors. Snyder probably has the best bat of the bunch but his defensive skills are sketchier and he may not be a catcher ten years from now. Quiroz is a wildcard on offense, could be good, could be awful, has a mixed track record.

Buck is the safest bet. Snyder has the most hitting upside. Coors will help Closser.

Kirstie Alley in Wrath of Kahn jump-started my puberty.

1. Don't trust anything said by either side.
   
2. The guy will either sign or he won't.

But then, if my son becomes a prospect, I wouldn't let him sign with Boras. There are other agents who get top dollar without being antagonistic.

Anyway, he's got awesome command/control but, you know the score, we need to see if his finesse game will work at higher levels.

.270-.280 with doubles and decent OBP if he plays.

Pinto is further away but has all the looks of a sleeper to me...good stuff, good statistics. Needs better control but the K/IP is very sharp. I'd expect to see him in the second half some time. Upside: Sabathia.

Another example of how even the best pitching prospects carry a very high risk. That's, what, example 556,987,330,104?

And I have Marte at #1 right now. So that should answer your question.

I like infielder Brendan Harris.

First baseman Larry Broadway should be ready late in the year. He has impressive power.

I saw Foppert hit 96 MPH in Triple-A before his injury, so I know it is possible. But he hasn't been the same since 2002.

no.

Even with the best pitching prospect in the game, which Felix is, the odds are against him.

50 homers? Well, maybe. Let's see if he can handle a Double-A curveball first.

Willingham:   .241, .352, .430, 15 homers.

Ask the guys at the USS Mariner website...they may have some useful speculation for you. It could be random, but there are some systems that do seem to do a better job keeping their pitchers healthy.

Kazmir: Hmm....well, future ace if his command gets better.

I like McDougall and he does deserve a chance somewhere.

With the injury to Kubel, Barton has the best bat but is most limited defensively. Aybar is flashy and will hit for average and play good D, but he won't have the power of the other guys. Morales, who knows? The Cubans are tough to project.

Long-term value: Kubel
Best trade value for 2005: Aybar in a non-stathead league, Barton if you're in a league with a bunch of statheads.
Morales is a high risk either way.

I don't see Swisher as Lenny Dyktra. He doesn't run that well. The others look OK as possible best-cases.

I'll have ROY projections at the appropriate time, like a few days before the season starts.

I loved Foppert before he got hurt. If his arm is OK I still think he will have a "good career" but that can mean a million different things. We'll have more data six months from now.

How about a "players to watch" feature in each league when the season starts?

say that a lot with pitchers.

The hitting talent is much less impressive.

I wouldn't want to give you travel advice until we see the 2005 Arkansas roster. It could be worth the trip if they are playing the right team. There should be good talent in the Texas League.

There are some interesting pitchers to watch though. Adam Kown, Dallas Trahern, and Anthony Tomey are sleepers who could surprise.

They have to be put on the 40-man roster right away, which means they start burning options quickly. But they don't start accruing time towards arbitration and free agency until they are on the 25-man roster.

For college guys like Humber, it's not a big deal but high school guys who get major league contracts often burn up all their options before they are ready to play, leading to roster problems, loss on waivers, etc.

Bowman: Good athlete, not sure about his bat. He has some power and is young, but his plate discipline needs a lot of work. He's interesting and I should have put him in the book, but there's been a lot of hype about him lately that may be misplaced. We will see.

Hernandez is one of my favorite low-level prospects and I think he could break through into elite status this year.

Joe Mauer has Hall-of-Fame potential....but the young catcher demographic is very, very risky.

David Wright if he ages well. Upton. The usual candidates...very talented young players. But who knows what will happen over a 20year career??

As for how they are handled, perhaps they will be more cautious. Perhaps not. They will likely let Billingsley's own progress determine how quickly he is advanced.

Gotay has a strong bat and is making a bid to take over 2B this spring ahead of schedule due to good hitting and improved defense. I like him.

Phillips and Peralta...they both look like .260-.270 hitters to me, with Peralta having a touch more power. Phillips has been a disappointment but it is too early to give up on him.

Billingsley
Nelson
Petit
Morales
Aybar
Verlander

Note that Morales is a real wild card since we have no North American data for him.

Honel: impossible to say until we know if he is healthy or not. There are also confidence issues with him.

First, college boy Glen Perkins looks great to me. I saw his last start in the Midwest League and he was very impressive. He should move quickly, which helps take some of the pressure off the high school guys.

Of the high schoolers, just from looking at their statistics, reading reports, and watching video, I think Rainville has the best raw stuff, Swarzack has the most current polish, and Waldrop has the most future projection. All of them could turn into very impressive pitchers.

IF THEY STAY HEALTHY. And keep their heads on straight. Given historic injury attrition, probably only one of the group will turn out as the Twins hope. Which one, I don't know. But the Twins usually do a good job keeping their young pitchers healthy, which will help.

I like all of these guys. I probably have the most confidence in Quentin among the hitters. Nelson is too far away to be certain although he certainly projects well and I have a good intuition about him. Encarnacion is underrated and could break through this year. Drew, who knows?

I'd rate Billingsley a notch above Cain and Guzman due to injury concerns.