Community Hardy Projection

by John Sickels on Mar 9, 2005 6:06 PM EST in News

J.J. Hardy

Minor League Ball Community Proj: BA: .258 OBP: .322 SLG: .406 10 HR
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projt: BA: .268 OBP: .328 SLG: .437 15 HR
Baseball Forecaster 05Projection: BA: .264 OBP: .337 SLG: .411 12 HR
ZIPS Baseball Think Tank Project: BA: .252 OBP: .347 SLG: .397 15 HR
John Sickels Experimental Projec: BA: .256 OBP: .330 SLG: .396 12 HR

Not as much interest in Hardy compared to the other players we have projected; we had only half as many projections. Either readers are losing interest in the project, or Hardy just isn't that interesting for most of you.

As you can see, the Community Projection is very similar to what other systems are showing once again, although the Community is a bit more pessimistic about his on-base abilities. I have normalized the home run totals for the theoretical 450 at-bats in the projection.

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Comments

project

I think the lack of interest was probably due to Hardy and not to losing interest in the projections project. Very interesting experiment you're doing here.

by eastin on Mar 9, 2005 6:56 PM EST reply actions

no rookies

I think we should not do rookies (especially rookies ethat play in Milwaukee), but guys that are are young and may have breakout seasons (Joe Mauer, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Alexis Rios)

by mrmetaa on Mar 9, 2005 7:48 PM EST reply actions

I like the experiment

but really had no interest in Hardy. The next one will probably turn out better.

by Megawatt @ Minor League Ball on Mar 9, 2005 8:10 PM EST reply actions

Hardy

I think its a combination of a tough projection (due to injury) and a team that doesn't attract attention from non-fans. I know that I am recording my own projections for later checking, just out of curiosity...but saying I "nailed" JJ Hardy's 2005 projection isn't particularly exciting, even it might show that I'm actually good (or bad) at it...

by joeficarra on Mar 9, 2005 9:47 PM EST reply actions

BTW

love the "Hardy Boys" picture. Used to have an almost complete (at the time - don't know if its grown since then) set of their books, including an original copy of the 9th one...don't know if its in my parent's attic, or lost to posterity...

by joeficarra on Mar 9, 2005 9:51 PM EST reply actions

JJ

The lack of interest probably stems from the fact that he's a Brewer prospect, as joeficarra notes above. Except for diehard Brewer fans and prospect-o-philes like me, I'd bet that most people don't even know who he is.

I see the Brewer prospects a fair amount, because of the Huntsville affiliation. Hardy is going to be a good player eventually, but I think he'll need an adjustment period before that happens.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Mar 10, 2005 9:30 AM EST reply actions

Brewer isn't the problem

I don't think it's that he's a Brewer's prospect.
Most people are very excited about Fielder and Weeks, and if we do this next year for one of those guys there will be lots of interest. Hardy is just sort of a blah prospect. He looks like he'll provide good defense and pretty average offense especially his rookie year.

by eastin on Mar 10, 2005 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

More Hardy

For a prospect to get noticed outside his own organization, he typically has to be either a high draft choice (Weeks), have a compelling story line (Fielder and his dad), or put up eye-popping numbers somewhere along the way. Hardy hasn't done any of those. But at this point, I wouldn't bet against him having a longer career than either Weeks or Fielder.

Interesting comparison, offered just for the heck of it:

At age 21, playing in Huntsville, Miguel Tejada hit .275/.345/.458 in 128 games (the OBP is estimated by the Baseball Cube, since they didn't have HBP or SF data). At age 21, playing in Huntsville, JJ Hardy hit .279/.368/.428 in 114 games.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Mar 10, 2005 11:44 AM EST up reply actions

Brewers + Injury

Other than Weeks & Fielder, I think there's kind of a "who cares" aspect to the Brewers farm system, even though by 2007 there will be plenty to pay attention to.

With Hardy in particular, I suspect that had you done this exercise last year it would have garnered more interest since the injury makes him a tough one to figure. He may not play at all.

by gardibolt on Mar 10, 2005 12:16 PM EST reply actions