Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Mar 5, 2005 2:11 PM EST in News Comment 34 comments

Hanley Ramirez, SS, A-
Jon Papelbon, RHP, B+
Brandon Moss, OF, B+
Anibal Sanchez, RHP, B
Jon Lester, LHP, B
Dustin Pedroia, SS, B
Christian Lara, SS, B-
Luis Soto, SS, B-
Kelly Shoppach, C, B-
Abe Alvarez, LHP, B-
Ian Bladergroen, 1B, B-
Andrew Dobies, LHP, B-
Manny Delcarmen, RHP, C+
Jeremy West, 1B, C+
Mickey Hall, OF, C+
Cla Meredith, RHP, C+
Tommy Hottovy, LHP, C+
David Pauley, RHP, C+
Mike Rozier, LHP, C+
Kyle Bono, RHP, C+

This system has improved greatly in a short period of time, due to better drafting and the development of a few holdovers from the previous administration. Hanley took a big step forward last year, and while I think he needs another year to consolidate his progress, I'm much more confident in his future than I was a year ago at this time.

Papelbon and Moss also took major steps forward last year, Moss in particular although some are still skeptical about his long-term power potential. Anibal Sanchez and Jon Lester are prototype members of the risky young pitching demographic. I think Sanchez has the higher ceiling. Grade B is a very conservative grade for him. If he stays healthy he'll be at least a B+ at this time next year.

Three sharp middle infielders slot in at 6 through 8. Lara and Soto have better physical tools and projection than Pedroia, but are also riskier. One or both could move ahead of Dustin if they develop their athleticism. As for Pedroia himself, he isn't a super-athlete but he is one hell of a baseball rat. Hitting .336 in the Florida State League a month out of college, while playing errorless ball at shortstop, has to be respected.

Polished college pitchers like Dobies and Alvarez provide some depth for the farm system, even if they project as "useful" rather than "dominant" at the Major League level. Several college pitchers drafted in the middle rounds last year also had successful debuts. I particularly like Wichita State lefty Tommy Hottovy as a sleeper.

Mickey Hall and Mike Rozier are toolsy high school kids with very high physical ceilings. They're both risky, but have massive upside. They also demonstrate that the New Model Red Sox will take chances on high school kids in the draft, mixing raw guys with more polished college players. I think it is a very effective way to build a farm system. Other interesting prospects who slot in the 21-30 range include LHP Randy Beam, Juan Cedeno, and Brian Marshall, RHP Jose Vaquedano and Beau Vaughan.

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Comments

Rank

John, about where would you rank this system? I think BA has them about 21st, but I'd be curious to see where you slot them.

Also, Brandon Moss, he had a BABIP of .389 last year. While BABIP is a skill for hitters, it is also an extremely flukish stat.

If Moss drops his BABIP last year to .320, which is about the upper limit of what a sustainable BABIP for the best hitters, then his stat line drops to:

.284/.347/.460.

Which while not nothing, is far less impressive, and likely more in line with Moss's actual talent.

If Moss had put up that line, any idea of a grade for him here instead?

by bibigon on Mar 5, 2005 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

One of the things that should be pointed out here is that, while BABIP is indeed a flukish stat, it typically has a very wide range in the lower minors because there are so many pitchers who do not have major league talent playing there. There is no question that Moss very likely will not sustain a .380+ BABIP as he moves up the ladder - but that .380+ BABIP is more indicative of a player who is likely to be in the .310-.320 range when he does move up to the high minors.

Would you agree that someone who posted a .284/.347/.460 line in AA or AAA at age 20 would be a pretty good prospect? (That's not far off Prince Fielder's numbers at that level, FWIW.)

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Mar 5, 2005 9:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what to do with all the shortstops

4 SS in the top-8, and none of them will start for the Red Sox as long as Edgar Rentaria is in Boston. What to do? Trade them or move them to another position?

by mrmetaa on Mar 5, 2005 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Move 'em to another position.

So far as I can tell the Sox are big believers of James' Defensive Spectrum-- you can move the guys from shortstop to another field position relatively easily (allegedly. Doesn't work for everyone).

Obviously it's nice to finally have guys in the Sox system who could be actual trade bait, but I'd like to see them hang on to a number of them. It's been too long since we've had a plethora of actual home-grown talent on our major league squad.

by Boston Fan In Michigan on Mar 5, 2005 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Delcarmen

Bit suprised to see Delcarmen a C+ below Dobies. he had a high ERA last year but he struck out over a batter an inning with almost 4 Ks for every walk. His stuff was back also ive heard.

by Tiimeh on Mar 5, 2005 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

delcarmen

I want to make sure he is healthy. I tend to be very conservative with pitchers with an injury history. In raw talent he ranks ahead of Dobies, yes. and if he stays healthy Delcarmen will move ahead this year.

by John Sickels on Mar 5, 2005 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hall's upside? And Alvarez?

I'm interested as to why you see Hall's upside being so high. I've read that he's already pretty polished and physically mature, which suggests to me that his upside is not quite so sky high.

I'm also interested as to why Alvarez is so low. Well, I mean, I'm sure it's because of his stuff. The thing is, though, he's quite young and he was quite good in AA. I give him a good bit of credit for that - I figured that pitching in AA would be a big hurdle for a guy with weak stuff, and I'm impressed he jumped it.

I'd also second bibigon's question about Moss. I'd rephrase it - Moss' skill set appears to be heavily weighted toward his ability to hit for average, which has been significantly lacking in every year but last. If he loses some BA, he doesn't have the power, speed, defense or the rest to be much of a prospect. Do you think his ability to hit for average is as good as his stats last year?

by Mikael on Mar 5, 2005 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not a good system

I am of the opinion that Pedroia is their number 1 prospect. He's really performed well, although he did come straight from a major college program. He reminds me a lot of Marcus Giles, honestly. I like Moss, too. But that's it.

Hanley Ramirez is hands down the most overrated prospect in baseball. He has no power, and he doesn't walk. I just don't understand why he gets some much hype. Well, I do (because the white haired redsox homer from ESPN pimps him in nearly every article), but I don't. He's got utility infielder written all over him. If he's lucky.

Papelbon had better numbers at A-ball (as a 23 year old), than he did at college. Huge red flag.

by AwfulWaffle on Mar 5, 2005 3:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

stats

look at renteria's minor league stats. he didnt have power or walks either.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/profiles/RE/tbc561.asp

I dont think the entire industry is influenced by gammo. Its the tools. I think we'd all like to see the tools translated into a consistent full-season performance. But to say he'll be lucky to be a utility guy is silly.

free Josh Willingham!

by natsfan2005 on Mar 5, 2005 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Renteria

isn't that good, either. At least not offensively. His OBP has been mediocre for all but one season of his career. His career mark of .346 is skewed by one great offensive season. He's only topped that mark twice.

You can make a case that his numbers are good for a shortstop, and I'd tend to agree. But there's also the fact that Renteria is an outstanding defensive shortstop. If he weren't, he wouldn't be starting.

take away renteria's defense and his fluke year, and you've got hanley ramirez. If Epstein has the opportunity to trade this guy for a legit major league midseason, he needs to jump all over it.

by AwfulWaffle on Mar 5, 2005 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hanley

The reason Hanley is rated so highly is that scouts consistently rate his tools as among the best in the minor leagues. The idea is, basically, that he has great potential to hit for average and power - which he has done in the DSL, GCL, NYPL and AA for a partial season. He is also considered likely to be a plus defensive SS and a plus baserunner.

It seems like you either don't agree with the scouting concensus, or you significantly question its value. Either way, it's certainly not just about Gammons.

by Mikael on Mar 5, 2005 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We'll agree to disagree

the sox do have a great middle infield prospect, but his name is dustin pedroia. he'd have been a top 15 pick if he were 4 inches taller.

I see him getting traded either at some point, and i know the Sox will end up regretting it.

I just don't think Ramirez' stats translate, at all, to the big leagues. I just see too much Jose Ortiz in him.

by AwfulWaffle on Mar 5, 2005 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think the real story here is....

I think the real story here is those Lowell Spinners uniforms may be patriotic but they are ugly.

free Josh Willingham!

by natsfan2005 on Mar 5, 2005 4:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Swindle?

Ha no love for Robert "RJ" Swindle? I went to school with this guy. People were always baffled how he continued to get hitters out with an 80 mph fastball. Looks like he is still finding ways. Any thoughts on him John?

by yondaime4 on Mar 5, 2005 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sox List

I like the list put out. I'm surprised that Alvarez is that low, though, even though his stuff isn't considered as great as that of Declarmen's or Lester's.

by RBooth on Mar 5, 2005 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sox GPA

John, do you have a page somewhere with the GPAs of all of the systems that you have rated? I poked around a bit, but couldn't find one.

by dnramo on Mar 5, 2005 6:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

NM, found it

Sorry, should have waited a few minutes before I asked.

by dnramo on Mar 5, 2005 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

diary

Someone was calculating that in the diaries. I don't think they have updated it recently. Anyone want to volunteer?

by John Sickels on Mar 5, 2005 6:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dave Pauley...

...did pretty well in the Hi-A cal league. By Q&D DIPS, he had a 3.44 ERA in what I understand is a pretty good hitter's league. Why does he get a C+ instead of B-?

Rather, it looks like Lake Elsinore is a neutral park in a 1160 league. Sarasota is a slight hitter's park in a 896 league. In the FSL, that would have been about .8 runs lower, in theory (~2.65). Does he look worse than he is because of his run environment?

by dnramo on Mar 5, 2005 6:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Former Gatemen (Murton/Murphy)

Where would Murton have ranked on this list?
Does David Murphy have any upside and does he rank in the top 30?

by emilmuzz on Mar 5, 2005 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Papelbon question

his numbers in A ball last year were clearly dominant. I'm wondering if he was a little old for that level at 23 and that might have contributed to his numbers, or is he that good? (not a statement, a question)

Also, what kind of stuff does he have, power or finesse?

Thanks

by alstl04 on Mar 5, 2005 10:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Papelbon

He has power stuff, and yes, he is absolutely old for the league.

by bibigon on Mar 5, 2005 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Papelbon

He's old for his league, but he has very little experience pitching. I think I read somewhere that he pitched more innings last year than he had previously in his entire baseball career -- professional and amateur.

by chris p on Mar 6, 2005 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Papelbon

Also, what kind of stuff does he have, power or finesse?

Papelbon has power stuff -- mid-90's (92-98) heat with what have been described as, at times, a plus slider and a plus change. Apparently someone set him up with Roger Clemens' offseason conditioning program this year, so 2005 should be very interesting.

I wouldn't worry about Papelbon's age. He was old for his league, but age isn't nearly as important for pitchers as it is for hitters. Apparently he never pitched in H.S., was recruited to college as a hitter and only took the mound there as a reliever out of necessity. He was less experienced than most H.S. pitchers when he was drafted, so if you want to gauge his success, think of him as a 19 year-old coming off his first full season of pro ball. He has a little bit less projectability than a 19 year-old would, though, meaning he's not likely to add another 5mph on his fastball or anything like that. If he's already hitting 98, though, that shouldn't be a problem.

by dnramo on Mar 6, 2005 2:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Age

I think you're downplaying the age factor a bit too much.

By virtue of having physically developed more, by virtue of already throwing 98mph, he's got himself an advantage over most of the other prospects in A ball.

Not that he's nothing, but there are legitimate concerns about his age.

by bibigon on Mar 6, 2005 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

98 mph is 98 mph

The one thing young age gives pitchers is "projectability." If you take 98mph as the max that Papelbon will throw, you've accounted for it, perhaps overly so. A pitcher is little more than 1) a collection of pitches, 2) knowledge of how to use those pitches, and 3) endurance.

changes more with experience than age. Age can increase velocity as a pitcher gains strength, but experience increases pitch quality and, in theory, command.
this is pure experience.
This is age-related. Older, stronger pitchers can throw more pitches at lower injury risk. Papelbon's prospect rating has nothing to do with endurance he may or may not have, and being older should help him w.r.t. injury risk.

I don't think age can be downplayed enough in evaluating minor league pitchers, where age can be separated from experience. I don't think experience can be over-emphasized, though, as that is the primary means for a pitcher to improve.

by dnramo on Mar 6, 2005 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

plans for this year?

any idea whether they plan to use him at AA or skip it and move him to AAA this year?

by alstl04 on Mar 6, 2005 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Charlie Zink, Knuckleballers

John--
First I should say that I've long enjoyed your commentary dating back to your work on ESPN.com. Any comments on Charlie Zink? What else does he throw besides a knuckleball? I hear he's a hard thrower---how hard is his fastball and where would he fit on your list of prospects? Also, I heard that Boston recently converted a catcher or outfielder? into a knuckleballer. Know anything about him? Thanks.

by GoSox05 on Mar 6, 2005 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

zink

Zink pitched so badly in Double-A last year that I don't think he's worth worrying about at this point. 5.79 ERA, horrible K/BB ratio.

I haven't heard about the recent conversion of someone else. We have lots of red sox fans around here. . .anyone know about this?

by John Sickels on Mar 6, 2005 11:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sox and Knuckleballs

I don't have the link at hand but I remember reading last year the Sox now give failing prospects (whether hitters or pitchers) a chance to try a knuckleball. I think Zink was just the first attempt.

by yerfatma on Mar 6, 2005 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sox and Knuckleballs

Joe Rogers

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/rogers-joe.htm

by spike on Mar 6, 2005 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes!

I sent an e-mail to Voros McCracken proposing this very idea about three years ago...

I think this is one of the best ideas the new front office has implemented.

by bibigon on Mar 6, 2005 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Knuckleballers

If 1 in 20 failing prospects can become a mediocre knuckleballer and you teach two kids every year, that's an extra valuable prospect every decade from what otherwise would have been a cut list of minor league free agents. It's a good idea, hopefully it works out once in a while.

by Ed on Mar 7, 2005 4:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hanley

"He's got skills, man. The guy has some unbelievable skills," said Red Sox slugger David Ortiz. "He just has to stay on top of his game and I bet you he's going to be a superstar."

Captain Jason Varitek has spent enough time with Ramirez this spring to see a possible star in the making.

"He's grown up a lot [since last year]," said Varitek. "He's gone from a little boy to a man. He's special."

by Goodfella on Mar 7, 2005 7:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs