Spring Begins, and the Great Corey Patterson Experiment

by John Sickels on Mar 4, 2005 10:04 AM EST in News Comment 72 comments

I officially declare that March 3rd, 2005, was the beginning of spring.

It was 66 degrees yesterday here in Lawrence, KS. We even had an afternoon thunderstorm roll through town, a nice garden-variety storm, lasted 5 minutes, not severe or anything but with several bursts of thunder and lightning and some brief heavy rain.

In Florida and Arizona, spring training games got started in earnest. My favorite time of year has officially begun.

Discussion topic for today: a projection experiment. Give your prediction/projection for Corey Patterson's BA, OBP, SLG, and stolen bases this season. I will cut-off predictions at 8 AM on Saturday morning, at which time I will average everything out and see what the aggregate prediction is. At the end of the year, we'll see how close we get, and how we compare to the output of other models (PECOTA, Baseball Forecaster, Bill James, etc.).

Some ground rules: you are allowed to look over Corey Patterson's statistics from previous seasons, but please do not check out PECOTA or what other models are predicting.

0 recs | Comment 72 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Patterson Projection

I'll open the bidding with:

.270/.370/.470 with 20 stolen bases.

by PhillyBooster on Mar 4, 2005 10:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

.261/.325/.433 with 12 SB in an injury plagued season.

by NFA Brian on Mar 4, 2005 10:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

C-Pat

.289/.333/.473

31 stolen bases.

I see improvement over 2004, not quite to the level of 2003 other than plate discipline, which he seems to have improved in 2004.

by mjb39618 on Mar 4, 2005 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

.282/.345/.475, 28 steals

by rwperu34 on Mar 4, 2005 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

.285/.335/.450 w/ 29 SB

This is probably as good as it gets, unless he gets an eye transplant from Barry Bonds.

by simsypoo on Mar 4, 2005 10:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

my guess

using the sophisticated projection program found in my gut--.284/.338/.484 34 sb

by nwroyal on Mar 4, 2005 10:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

His eye has progressively gotten a better.

I'll say 290/340/485 with 34 steals and 66 extra base hits.

by ohad on Mar 4, 2005 10:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

.285/.320/.517

Stolen Bases are tough given Hairston's arrival and not knowing 100% where Patterson will bat. His OBP screams poor leadoff man and potential power puts him in the middle of the order. Given that uncertainty, I have him at 25 SB. With Sosa and Alou gone, I think Dusty Baker will have him run more.

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Mar 4, 2005 10:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

.257/.307/.513 with 23 steals.

I just have a feeling he's going to regress a touch on the discipline while consolidating his power.

by Arthur on Mar 4, 2005 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Projecting Corey

.274/.331/.475 with 24 SB's....

by rhodehead on Mar 4, 2005 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson's line

Put me down for:

.267/.319/.440 w/ 24 steals. I don't see Patterson making any great strides forward, but I don't see much of a backslide either.

by RVachon on Mar 4, 2005 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson Projection

.275/.335/.475 - 30 SB

by Trader J on Mar 4, 2005 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

whooomp there it is

Patterson: .269/.328/.495 27hrs 24sbs

free Josh Willingham!

by natsfan2005 on Mar 4, 2005 11:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson Projection

.275/.340/.495 with 28 SB

"As long as they don't test for Little Debbies, I'll be fine." -Todd Jones

by cheheret on Mar 4, 2005 11:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

.285/.335/.485, 31 sb

by Edman85 on Mar 4, 2005 11:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

.275/.325/.450 22 SB

by kannc6 on Mar 4, 2005 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

.260 / .325 / .470 w/ 18 sbs

Torri Hunter like #s.

by shaftr on Mar 4, 2005 11:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

i'll take the bottom position...

Key factor this spring is Patterson's considerable regression in the 2nd half last year; he finished with W/K barely better than 1/4. Little reason for optimism here.

.246/.320/.435, at best.

by reviser273 on Mar 4, 2005 11:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

My predictions: 285/345/495/28 SB

by AaronMullen on Mar 4, 2005 11:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bullish

.300 .380 .500 35SB

He's toolerriffic.

by Cabbage on Mar 4, 2005 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Anti-Bullish

.260, .310, .431, 20 SB

by JeffersJV on Mar 4, 2005 11:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

I'll take a flier with:

.281 .338 .456 26 sb's

Elton

by esims on Mar 4, 2005 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Question about players' ages

Put me down for .270/.335/.475 30 SB.

I have a question concerning players' listed ages. The Baseball Cube uses October 1 as the cut-off (per email notes I've exchanged with Gary at that site) while Baseball-Reference.com uses (I believe) July 1 as their cut-off date. In today's article at BaseballAmerica.com age as of opening day is mentioned.

For example, Corey Patterson played 2004 as a 24 year old according to Baseball-Reference.com and as a 25 year old according to the Baseball Cube. I like the stats on Baseball-Reference for major league numbers and use the Baseball Cube to check on minor leaguers' stats and noted Daric Barton on the Cube is shown as only five years younger than Patterson as shown at B-R, when he is actually six years and three days younger.

Is there an accepted standard in baseball for determining a player's age for that season?

by socalcardfan on Mar 4, 2005 11:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ages

I'm curious about this as well. Does anyone have a good answer?

Patterson: .278/.334/.481 with 34 SB

by Nick Schulte on Mar 4, 2005 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Corey Breaks Through

My, not a lot of Corey supporters here.

.303/.367/.512 with 32 SB

I'm going with Corey's June and August splits from 2004 as a more accurate prediction of his upcoming performance this year. During these two months, he hit .332/.388/.580.

In addition to these two strong months, Corey also turned in 4 stinkers during 2004. I say the ratio flips from 2/4 to 4/2 during 2005 as Corey settles into the new, Sosa-less lineup.

I also think Garciaparra will be a positive influence as he challenges for the NL batting title. I think Corey struggles when he tries to hit the long ball (he is no Sosa). With a line-drive, multiple batting champ example hitting near him in the lineup, he may finally put it all together.

by cmckeil on Mar 4, 2005 12:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Meh

Let's go with .280/.345/.510. I see a small growth in power, but nothing revolutionary. Only about 25 steals though...

by JM Barten on Mar 4, 2005 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Breakout

This is Patterson's breakout year. He wore down towards the end of the year after rehabbing from major knee surgery in the off season. 23 of his 32 steals came after July 1st. I'll say this is the year he joins the 30/30 club.

.290/.350/.510 w/ 38 SB

by geosrhen on Mar 4, 2005 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

I'll go with a hitting line of .260/.310/.450 plus 25 SB.

by tradewind on Mar 4, 2005 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

eh

Nothing too far off base here:

.270/.340/.480 with 25 SBs

by jhelfgott on Mar 4, 2005 1:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bearish on Patterson

Call it .285/.323/.490, 25 steals

The Future Is Now - Jeff Francis, #26, Colorado Rockies

by Franchise26 on Mar 4, 2005 1:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson Projections

.260 Avg
.310 OBP
.460 Slg%
30 SB

I didn't look any anyone else's projections, so any duplications are merely coincidence. Really.

In a perfect world, I'd have been able to play there forever, and me & Mark & Barry would always be the Big3. But it ain't a perfect world...It's a busi

by rmv130 on Mar 4, 2005 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Projection

.278/.326/.463 with 30 SBs

by calig23 on Mar 4, 2005 1:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

CP

.261/.308/.453 - 21 SB

by jte87 on Mar 4, 2005 1:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

K-orey

Oh, boy, do we have to? The Chicago Tribune on Feb 23 reported that Corey was "considers himself a No. 3 hitter but is willing to sacrifice some RBIs in a return to the leadoff spot." Lovely.

.275/.320/.475 and 20 SBs. He's getting to the age where he'll start to be worried about longevity, so he won't take as many stolen base jumps and only run when they tell him to.

by backward k on Mar 4, 2005 1:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

good method

I remember reading some study or something that said the best predictor for something is the average "guesses" by a whole lot of people. The more people, the more accurate. I wonder if this method would work with stat prediction. Instead of having all these PECOTA etc. prediction algorithms, just ask lots and lots of qualified people.

by sabernar on Mar 4, 2005 1:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

theory

That's why I'm doing this. I want to see if this theory holds up, at least in this case.

The idea is that each "educated guess" posted here is, in fact, an output of a specific computer model if you will. None of us are running the exact same software, of course. More on this idea later.

by John Sickels on Mar 4, 2005 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here goes nothing...

.275/.333/.480 w/ 35 steals

by ConorGlassey on Mar 4, 2005 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

see The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki

Yes, this theory would predict that the average of all our predictions will turn out to be quite accurate. As the thread lowballer thus far, this makes me think maybe I should take Patterson more seriously...but 1/4 W/K...ugh...

;)

by reviser273 on Mar 4, 2005 1:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

.288/.350/.535 35 SB

The only problem with this is no one has any idea where he'll bat in the order. When they moved him to lead-off, he was great for a while then fell off a cliff. I think he should bat 3rd or 5th.

by slurve on Mar 4, 2005 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My guess

.280/.345/.497 37sb

Thought Patterson was a bit overrated coming up through the minors, but he's actually made some progress with the strikezone. He's still not great with the bb/k ratio, but he's heading in the right direction. I'm a believer now.

by eastin on Mar 4, 2005 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Arghin

.285/.350/.490 and 25 SBs.

by ultxmxpx on Mar 4, 2005 2:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

it could happen

.274/.342/.530 22SB

by asinwreck on Mar 4, 2005 2:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Korey

.270/.370/.470 with 20 stolen bases.

.370 OBP? 50 point increase?

.290/.330/.490 34 SB 150 Ks 27 HR
Gold Glove maybe

by Ienpw on Mar 4, 2005 2:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm Game

.258/.322/.477 with 28 stolen bases, 123Ks along with 29 homers

and a partidge in a pear tree

by Maverick on Mar 4, 2005 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson Prediction

281/327/466 and 31sb's

Go A's!!!

by Lodgeman on Mar 4, 2005 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

John

Meyer made his Debut in ST just now. He got lit up for 7 runs over 2 innings. He got behind in the count a lot. Started well. Then out of nowhere in the first inning with two outs Prince Fielder hit a home run. The Brewers got 3 in the first, then 4 in the second after Carlos Lee's three run jack and a double or something.

by ohad on Mar 4, 2005 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson

Hmm, let me guess something like:

.300/.360/.520

by bibigon on Mar 4, 2005 4:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Its just not his year....

I will go with.....

.260/.305/.370

by Hotwheelz on Mar 4, 2005 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Patterson AKA C-Pat

.275/.335/.485 with 35 SBs.

by FuriousB on Mar 4, 2005 4:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

best guess

.272/.330./.465/26 steals

by joeficarra on Mar 4, 2005 5:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Corey Patterson 2005

I will predict:

AVE. .271
OBP. .325
SLG. .445
HR 20
SB 25

by redsox2005 on Mar 4, 2005 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Inconsistency

He was way way too inconsistent last year. He had a good June and August. From what I saw of him it looked as if he had a problem over getting "pull-happy" against righties, but stayed in well against lefties and shot it the other way. He actually hit lefties better. So there is some hope for optimism in that.

by Ienpw on Mar 4, 2005 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

CP

.258/.335/.441/27

I'll say his production dips a bit this year in the year before the contract year, but that his walk rate increases (as it has been). He always seems to be in a slump for longer than he's hot...

by Brickhaus on Mar 4, 2005 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs