The most you can get for Matt Riley is Ramon Nivar?!

by delomir on Mar 30, 2005 6:23 PM EST

Just saw the line on ESPN.com... The O's traded Matt Riley to Texas for Ramon Nivar. My immediate reaction is that no, they weren't going to get an elite prospect in return for Riley at this point, but to get nothing but a guy whose offensive value is tied 100% to his batting average, which he wasn't able to sustain for an extended period in the PCL... ACK!!

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Terrible, Terrible Deal

I agree completely. Nivar is not and will never be a legit major leaguer. He wasn't a prospect before his fluky year in 2003 and his regression in 2004 proves it. He has no power, is a terrible baserunner, and isn't even all that great a defender.

I was hoping the Os could trade Riley for a project type prospect, someone whose organization had soured on him a little but who still had promise. Someone who had a track record of success but who had a down year in 2004 would have been perfect. Nivar, however, is not that guy. It's not just that he had an off year in 2004 -- he was never any good before 2003 either. So he's had one good year in the minors which was, as you say, completely driven by batting average.

The Orioles screwed up here. They weren't going to get a great player for Riley, but if Nivar was all they could get, they should have held onto him. Nivar is AAA depth at best.

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Mar 30, 2005 8:05 PM EST reply actions

A good question is:

How much longer this Beattie/Flanagan duo is gonna last? I think 3 years is the longest a GM has lasted here with Angelos. These guys have not proven that they should hold on to the job.

by DolemiteGK on Mar 30, 2005 8:58 PM EST reply actions

The most you can get for Matt Riley is Ramon Nivar

Nothing for nothing makes nothing. Twenty-five years ago -- more or less-- someone described a hockey trade involving someone's Dog for someone else's Cat to former Flyer GM Keith Allen who immediately opined:"Now there's a trade that hurts both teams!" This is another in the series. It happens every year.
Matt Riley is left-handed; he has no real apparent additional positive attributes. His maturity level within a game has been lacking for years and, based upon published reports about his off-field behavior last year, he remains a very unfinished product and a lousy employee. You would think someone would gain something from the rehabilitation experience after Tommy John surgery. It doesn't seem to have happened here.
The Rangers are getting someone who in two or three years may be starting games in an independent league, mainly because he cannot find employment elsewhere. Riley joins Rick Ankiel (another Tommy John guy) as a huge disappointment; an arm attached to a head that didn't have the capacity or will or maturity to apply its talent on the field. Don't shed a tear that he's gone; shed a tear for the waste he represents.

zzard (Arlington, VA)

by zzard on Mar 30, 2005 10:08 PM EST reply actions

Except I don't think Riley's "nothing"

His career minor league k/9 is over 10, and his major league rate is nearly 8 (in all of 85 IP, I know, but it's worth noting). Yeah, he walks too many people, but last season he allowed home runs at a rate nearly 3 times that which he did in the minors, including his 2004 time at Ottawa. Just a regression in the norm in that department ought to shave his ERA down some. Basically, a reasonable outlook for him would have him having Kazuhisa Ishii's career, which while not exactly a ringing endorsement, is still worth at least a decent backup catcher. Plus there's still a chance that he shaves the walks down to a more acceptable level, gets back to allowing .37 HR/9, and becomes quite a pitcher.

I understand if he's caused one too many headaches and the organization simply doesn't want to deal with him any more, but I find it hard to believe that they couldn't have flipped him for someone else's high-upside, low odds project(Ankiel maybe......), as a previous post suggested. Sure, it might not work out, but at least there's a risk worth taking. You're right, the biggest issue is the fact that Riley's in a position where he's being dumped at all, rather than being handed a fat contract befitting one of the better pitchers in the game. But as I said, I think there's enough evidence to suggest that even with the baggage, he's worth more than a 24 year old who put up a .664 OPS in the PCL last year.

by delomir on Mar 30, 2005 10:42 PM EST up reply actions

You're right; he's not "nothing."

I should have said he's currently a "below replacement level" pitcher. Nivar is, of course, his equivalent as an offensive player. Neither is so competent at the competitive level of the Major Leagues that they can best the likes of R. A. Dickey or Alex Sanchez. It's sad.
I've seen Riley pitch a half dozen times at Bowie. Yes, there was (and may still be) raw ability. But he's still raw, and he'll be turning 26 in August! He's not a kid anymore, but he won't stop behaving like one. So let's agree to disagree about what he could be, because unless and until he takes control of whatever talent remains, he won't come within spitting distance of 36 career "Wins," which is where Ishii-san currently sits.

zzard (Arlington, VA)

by zzard on Mar 30, 2005 11:20 PM EST up reply actions

AAAA

Riley is a great 4-A player. That's about the best you can say about him.

by IBCCommish on Mar 31, 2005 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

Whoa! - You all are way out of line on this

First off, both Riley and Nivar are professonal athletes playing at a very high level already. Give them that respect.

Second, none of you really know what's going on with either of these players or the organizations to make such harsh comments.

Both players have talent and both players need some work.

Nivar is extremely fast and can hit the ball hard. He needs to work on his plate discipline and his base running skills. These are areas that can be worked on and if corrected will result in a very good Major League center fielder. You also have to remenber that Nivar switched from 2B to CF which makes him a possible utilitiy guy as well. So there may also be a future for him as a utility bench player that can play any position, pinch run for you and hit with some pop.

Texas was going to lose Nivar through waivers because he was on the 40 man roster and they needed room for other players on the 40 man roster (odd man out).

Baltimore, on the other hand, might be a great fit for Nivar giving him the environment to progress into the Major Leagues.

Riley is a talented left handed pitcher that may benefit from Orel's coaching in Texas. Not to belabor Riley's attributes (previously discussed), but he could end up being very effective out of the bullpen and/or a number 4 or 5 starter.

In my opinion this is a win/win deal for both the organizations and the players.

I do not know what the future will be for either player, but this deal makes sense - and to be honest is not a killer for either club if it does not pan out as all parties hope.

by kmcsql on Mar 31, 2005 11:21 AM EST reply actions