Community Projection: Sean Burroughs

Next up: Sean Burroughs. I think this is an interesting projection since he has yet to show any sign of developing real power. He's big and strong, but where are the homers?
Project batting average, OBP, SLG, total HR, assume 145 games played. Also a yes/no question: will Burroughs ever hit 20 homers in a season? Please include all of this so I can use each entry.
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36 comments
Comments
Burroughs
No, he'll never hit 20 homers (assuming he remains in San Diego), though I do forsee a year where he desperately tries to hit for power and ends up in the toilet as far as his beneficial statistics.
by silv on Mar 22, 2005 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sean
No, maybe never 15 in a season.... unless of course he ends up playing a season in Colorado.
by simsypoo on Mar 22, 2005 12:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
I don't think he will ever hit 20. I projected this over 145 games, but I think he'll hit the bench and the Padres will get Xavier Nady in at third.
by count sutton on Mar 22, 2005 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burly
Yes. He's only 23. This season, his slugging will go up from all the doubles he'll leg out and the fact that the Pads are playing day games again.
by Dex on Mar 22, 2005 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
by ohad on Mar 22, 2005 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
.302/.364/.413 with 6 HR
For more on the Padres check out:
http://PadresRunDown.blogspot.com
by PeterF on Mar 22, 2005 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sean
Yes, he will hit 20.
by Megawatt on Mar 22, 2005 1:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
No. He only had 23 doubles last year anyway, and didn't hit much better on the road, either. I think he'd have to hit nearly .320 in order to be really valuable at this point.
Funny, I just looked at his Similar Batters through Age 23 at baseball reference; Three hall of famers on that list, but two of them never hit 20 home runs in a season.
by chunkylover22 on Mar 22, 2005 1:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
PeterF has it right:
> Are we talking carreer home runs? ;-)
Only way he gets to 20 HR is by hitting 12 of them inside the park.
People have been saying the power will come for Burroughs since he was 18. Haven't seen it yet.
And what a strange list of comparables (to age 23)!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burrose01.shtml
by cohengulko on Mar 22, 2005 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
20 HR in a season - Nope, not unless they bring the Petco fences in about 40 feet
by NFA Brian on Mar 22, 2005 1:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Really hard one
.275/.336/.428 11 homeruns (9 road). No he won't ever hit 20.
He'll start trying to yank some (with limited success), so the average will go down and the power will go up (but not enough to make him good). The BB rate will stay shitty. Padres will bench and move him in 2006, possibly prematurely.
His ultimate future is hard to forecast. With that body and swing, something has to be really screwed up for him not to develop power, but it's hard to imagine that a guy hitting 2 homeruns in 570 PAs isn't massively screwed up already.
by bootsy on Mar 22, 2005 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
I believe he'll probably hit 20 at some point, he's still young and has a chance to continue to develop power.
Of course if he tries overly hard to hit homers he may end up adversly effecting the rest of his game.
by MartinLutherBraveJr on Mar 22, 2005 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking, 2003 Adrian Beltre-esque numbers
by usdsoo on Mar 22, 2005 3:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
I think he presses to provide more power this year lowering his average and OBP, but slightly raising his SLG. Still don't think he'll hit a lot of HRs though.
by joerote on Mar 22, 2005 3:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
.290/.340/.360/5 HR ... not even close to 20 HR
by imhoff2 on Mar 22, 2005 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Projection
He's only 24, so it's hard to count him out for 20 homeruns at some point in his career.
by RT on Mar 22, 2005 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
burroughs
by tonyd on Mar 22, 2005 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
TotalMinors Projection
4 HRs
No, he'll never hit 20.
GH
by GForce22 on Mar 22, 2005 4:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
good season, but powerless
It doesnt look good for a third baseman to have a higher onbase than slugging
by mrmetaa on Mar 22, 2005 6:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
Yes, he'll have one season of ~25 and a couple more seasons at or near 20.
by cconley on Mar 22, 2005 6:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
I'd say he can hit 20 HR atleast once.
by BSR on Mar 22, 2005 6:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
it probably doesn't help ...
by usdsoo on Mar 22, 2005 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ah hell...
He's at an age at which improvements become dramatic. He'll start hitting a few doubles, getting XBH in more like 7 or 8% of his ABs.
He'll need to play a full season during his prime to get to 20 HRs, but I see no reason why he couldn't. I'll guess 26 as his career high.
by Milligan Tawny on Mar 22, 2005 6:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
I think he'll hit over 20 once or twice, but not for the Padres.
by padfan on Mar 22, 2005 7:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
OBP .360
SLG .420
HR 12
20 hr in a season? Yeah, he'll do it soon, maybe even this season.
by coreyt on Mar 22, 2005 7:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
jeff's boy
obp: .355
slg: .415
hr: 7
ab: 460
regards
by ralu25 on Mar 22, 2005 7:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
not sure why, but
by asinwreck on Mar 22, 2005 7:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yes
He will hit 20 one of these years, but wont do it consistently. He will turn out as a much worse version of wade boggs i think-same general skill set, althogh the batting avg and walks not as good
by big ben on Mar 22, 2005 8:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This guy gets no love
I'm not looking before I post, but I can see the post prior to mine. Big Ben and I are close, but I think Burroughs hits a few more doubles it looks like.
.315/.388/.461 11hr
Yes, he gets 20hr in one year
by splitter on Mar 22, 2005 8:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
cautiously optimistic
.304/.367/.419/ 9 HR's Yes
He'll hit 20, maybe even as many as 25, sometime between ages 26 and 28.
by joeficarra on Mar 22, 2005 8:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Improves
.320/.390/.440, 15 HR, YES he gets 20 once or twice, probably after leaving San Diego.
by delomir on Mar 22, 2005 9:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
.290 / .335 / .420 / 11 HR
by thomsirveaux on Mar 22, 2005 10:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs
.267/.319/.389 with 7 HR
That's if he plays 145 games, which I don't know that he will. I figure an intelligent (or safe) projection would have him continuing about like he is or maybe raising his doubles, but I'm going to go low on Burroughs.
He might hit twenty if he catches on with the Rockies.
by SC on Mar 23, 2005 3:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs projection
No, never 20 home runs
by JRIG on Mar 23, 2005 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
forget about power
dont think he'll ever hit 15 homers a season in MLB. 10 may even be a stretch. He had 2 homers last year over 523 at bats. I'd say on the days (two is plural) he hits one out you can go and buy yourself a lotto ticket.
by Bobo2 on Mar 23, 2005 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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