Florida Marlins Top 20 Prospects

Jeremy Hermida in the Arizona Fall League (MLB photo)
The last system report. We will summarize the data tomorrow. Anyone willing to figure up the GPAs, please do so and post in the comments. I'll then take that and make some adjustments and come up with some final farm system rankings.
- Jeremy Hermida, OF, B+
- Scott Olsen, LHP, B+
- Taylor Tankersley, LHP, B
- Jason Vargas, LHP, B
- Chris Resop, RHP, B
- Logan Kensing, RHP, B-
- Josh Willingham, C-1B, C+
- Jason Stokes, 1B, C+
- Yorman Bazardo, RHP, C+
- Eric Reed, OF, C+
- Josh Johnson, RHP, C+
- Brad Davis, C, C+
- Adam Bostick, LHP, C+
- Randy Messinger, RHP, C
- Trevor Hutchinson, RHP, C
- Chris Aguila, OF, C
- Ron Belisario, RHP, C
- Luke Hagerty, LHP, C
- Robert Andino, SS, C
- Josh Wilson, SS, C
Chris Resop is a converted outfielder who owns a mid-90s fastball and a 68/7 K/BB in 42 relief innings last year. He needs more experience, but continued pitching like that would raise his grade. Fellow RHP Kensing was badly rushed last year, jumping from Class A to the Show, where he had no business. He has a good arm but is raw, and pushing him into the Majors so quickly was a big backfire risk.
Josh Willingham is a favorite of statheads due to his power and excellent walk rate. Tradionalists are less sold on him due to defensive questions. I like his bat, but at age 26 and with no track record above Double-A, I gave him a conservative Grade C+.
Jason Stokes continues to impress people with his power, but he hasn't learned the strike zone and is not a refined hitter. I personally believe that he has a good chance of stalling out as a Triple-A slugger, although he's still young enough to prove that wrong.
Bazardo is another live-arm guy, who will move up to Double-A this year. His A-ball record is pretty solid, although his K/IP ratio is consistently below average, despite the fact that he can hit 95 MPH. Because of that I have some concerns about how he will hold up against better competition. Eric Reed has a career .306 average and is a major stolen base threat, but he lacks power and his plate discipline is inconsistent.
Josh Johnson suffers from the fact that his name is "Josh Johnson." If he had a more eye-catching name (Lance Powers, or Noble Valentine, or anything more interesting than "Josh Johnson") he'd get more attention. As it is, he's a 6-7 21-year-old righthander with decent command, a good sinker, and an adequate Class A track record.
Brad Davis is a Long Beach State product drafted last June. He has a good glove and made progress with the stick last year, but there's still some doubt about his bat at higher levels. Adam Bostick is a lefty with a consistently excellent K/IP ratio at the Class A level (163 K in 114 IP last year). He's got a great curveball, but his fastball is erratic (ranging from 86 to 93) and his command waivers.
Trevor Hutchinson and Randy Messenger were in Double-A last year and are looking for jobs. Messenger is more overpowering but is confined to a relief role. Hutchinson throws strikes but his stuff is marginal. Both look like "role pitchers" to me. You can make a case to put them higher on the list, above Bostick at least, depending on how you want to weight their better chance to help compared to the risky upside evident in Bostick's K/IP and youth.
Chris Aguila can hit .250-.270 with moderate power at the Major League level, adequate for a reserve job. Belisario is another guy with a good arm (90-95 MPH) but an erratic track record and weak K/IP marks given his velocity. Rule 5 guy Hagerty (from the Cubs system via trade with the Orioles) is a good bet to stick on the roster for rehab purposes. I liked him a lot before Tommy John; we just need to see how he recovers.
Shortstops Andino and Wilson can handle their positions but have questionable bats. Andino is younger and has better upside to improve. Wilson made some progress last year, but there is still skepticism about his long-term offensive potential, and he projects best as a bench guy.
UPDATE: I answered a few questions at MarlinBaseball.com about the Florida system.
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28 comments
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Kensing
by rferry on
Mar 15, 2005 11:55 AM EST
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kensing
by John Sickels on
Mar 15, 2005 12:09 PM EST
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Wow!
They traded away:
Adrian Gonzales
Travis Chick
Abraham Nunez
Bill Murphy
Denny Bautista
by PeterF on
Mar 15, 2005 12:14 PM EST
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Nunez
by AR44 on
Mar 15, 2005 4:46 PM EST
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olsen
Mike Hinckley, Zach Duke, Dan Meyer, Cole Hamels??
by mrmetaa on
Mar 15, 2005 12:27 PM EST
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Derek Wathan
(Scraping the bottom of the barrel for some hope here)
by rferry on
Mar 15, 2005 12:32 PM EST
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John:
by smt on
Mar 15, 2005 1:01 PM EST
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C+ Grades
by LizardKing51 on
Mar 15, 2005 1:24 PM EST
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Why
by ohad on
Mar 15, 2005 1:41 PM EST
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Because
by LizardKing51 on
Mar 15, 2005 7:34 PM EST
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wrap up
by John Sickels on
Mar 15, 2005 1:37 PM EST
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Question for John
Who is A's prospect Alexi Ogando, and why have i only seen him on BA lists? They said he could be like Vladimir Guerrero.
by ohad on
Mar 15, 2005 1:43 PM EST
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oh boy
by TINSTAAPP on
Mar 15, 2005 2:07 PM EST
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Just a guess
Think the Pirates were hoping the same thing with Randal Simon last year.
by chunkylover22 on
Mar 15, 2005 4:45 PM EST
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ogando
by BJ Birdie on
Mar 17, 2005 3:13 AM EST
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Hagerty
I wish him the best but I wouldn't expect any results from him any time soon.
by waders on
Mar 15, 2005 1:51 PM EST
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Grade point totals
LA 58.67
Oak 58.33
Min 58.33
Ana 57.00
Col 56.33
Cle 56.00
Mil 55.00
Bos 54.00
Tor 53.33
KC 53.00
Atl 52.67
TB 52.67
Sea 52.33
SF 51.33
ChW 51.33
Tex 51.33
Pit 51.00
Hou 50.33
Ari 50.33
ChC 50.33
StL 49.33
NYY 49.00
Fla 48.67
NYM 48.00
Cin 47.67
Bal 47.67
Phi 47.67
SD 47.67
Det 47.00
Was 45.33
by Don2 on
Mar 15, 2005 1:52 PM EST
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hagerty
by John Sickels on
Mar 15, 2005 1:54 PM EST
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Top of the class
12 LA
12 Oak
11 Min
9 Ana
8 Cle
8 Mil
7 Col
7 Tor
7 TB
7 Hou
6 Bos
6 KC
6 SF
6 ChW
5 Atl
5 Tex
5 Fla
5 Bal
5 Phi
4 Sea
4 Pit
4 Ari
4 NYM
4 Cin
4 Was
3 ChC
3 StL
3 NYY
3 SD
3 Det
by Don2 on
Mar 15, 2005 2:30 PM EST
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AA prospects
I don't think a C+ for Willingham is conservative at all. He doesn't really have a position - he's not ever going to be a good defensive catcher, and he's not quite good enough with the bat for an infield or outfield corner. I also think he's too conservative at the plate, passing up pitches that he should be able to drive in search of the perfect pitch. He was the only decent hitter in Carolina's lineup for a large part of the season, with Stokes and Reed both hurt and Joe Dillon leaving for AAA after a month, and he did get pitched around a lot late in the season.
Reed got hurt in early June and missed the rest of the season. During the couple of months that he was healthy, he did demonstrate the ability to sting the ball and to cover ground in CF. He reminds me a little of Juan Pierre, although he swings and misses much more often than Pierre did.
I love to watch Josh Wilson, who works about as hard as anyone I've seen, but John's evaluation is pretty much spot-on.
Hutchinson was hurt last year, too, but even when he was healthy he was inconsistent. It didn't help that he was being managed by a guy (Ron Hassey) who appeared to be clueless when it came to managing a minor league pitching staff. I understand that sometimes you have to leave a guy out there in the minors to get work even when he is being torched, but Hassey always seemed to leave guys in about an inning beyond the point where there were getting benefit from being out there.
Messenger has a chance to be a quality reliever in the majors; he does have good stuff and when he's on good command of it. He is a bit of a head case, though - the Marlins suspended him late in 2003 for "personal reasons", and only reinstated him for the postseason due to injuries (which also forced them to call up a short-season A-ball pitcher named David Marchbanks, who almost had to start the deciding postseason game).
Jason Stokes = Dave Kingman. Seriously.
by MikeE on
Mar 15, 2005 2:42 PM EST
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That should be...
by MikeE on
Mar 15, 2005 3:18 PM EST
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Hey John
(Yes, I know he's not a prospect, but he did spend time with Liv Tyler while he was growing up...)
by MikeE on
Mar 15, 2005 2:46 PM EST
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Joe Dillon
Just getting over a couple of back surgeries myself, so of couse I'm rooting for him. I'd also be interested to hear a scout's perspective on an injury history like his.
by chunkylover22 on
Mar 15, 2005 5:03 PM EST
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Please Repost the A's
In general though, thanks for the writeups. This was one cool project.
by bootsy on
Mar 15, 2005 7:26 PM EST
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RE: A's
All it takes is a little smarts plus initiative. A Giants fan would have found their writeup and not made special requests to make accomodations for just their team.
by TINSTAAPP on
Mar 15, 2005 7:48 PM EST
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re
by bootsy on
Mar 15, 2005 7:27 PM EST
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A's
by John Sickels on
Mar 15, 2005 7:33 PM EST
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