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San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects


Two Interesting Padres, Tim Stauffer and Thomas Merton

  1. Josh Barfield, 2B, B            
  2. George Kottaras, C, B          
  3. Travis Chick, RHP, B            
  4. Tim Stauffer, RHP, B-            
  5. Brad Baker, RHP, B-              
  6. Freddy Guzman, OF, C+            
  7. Tagg Bozied, 1B, C+              
  8. Justin Germano, RHP, C+          
  9. Paul McAnulty, OF, C+    
  10. Sean Thompson, LHP, C+  (grade change)
  11. Jon Knott, OF, C+                
  12. Matt Bush, SS, C+                
  13. Chris Kolkhorst, OF, C+          
  14. Leo Rosales, RHP, C+              
  15. Vern Sterry, RHP, C+              
  16. Chris Oxspring, RHP, C          
  17. Ben Krosschell, RHP, C          
  18. J.J. Furmaniak, SS, C          
  19. Ben Johnson, OF, C              
  20. Wilmer Villatoro, RHP, C
A thin system. I still like Josh Barfield, although a league-average OPS last year and erratic plate discipline have hurt his grade a bit. George Kottaras has received almost no attention, yet I think there is a good chance he will be one of the top catching prospects in baseball a year from now. Keep a close eye on him, his bat could be quite impressive.

Travis Chick, acquired from the Marlins in the Ismael Valdes deal, posted a 167/36 K/BB last year in Class A and is another sleeper prospect. 2003 first-round pick Tim Stauffer overcame shoulder problems to pitch decently in Double-A/Triple-A last year. For me, he projects as a fourth starter. Brad Baker complete the trio of righthanders, looking to use his fastball/changeup combination sometime in the Major League bullpen this year.

Freddy Guzman draws raves for his blazing speed, but he doesn't have much power. For me, he's a reserve guy, but his speed could tempt the Padres into giving him a regular job. I'm not sure he can hold it long-term. Grand Moff Tagg Bozied made progress developing his power stroke last year, but is blocked positionally. Justin Germano was crushed in Major League action last summer, but has a decent track record and will get another chance. Like Stauffer, he looks like a back-of-the-rotation guy to me. Paul McAnulty and Jon Knott have good bats, but like Bozied are limited defensively and are no longer young prospects.

I had Sean Thompson as a Grade B in the book. I must have been in a good mood that day; I think now that C+ is a better grade. He's pitched well in the low minors, but is a soft-tosser and will have to prove out at higher levels.

2004 first-round pick Matt Bush did not play well in his pro debut. He's too young and inexperienced to give up on of course, but I think there is a high risk that his selection could blow up in San Diego's face.

A sleeper I like is Leo Rosales, who had a fine year as a Midwest League closer. He has a decent fastball, a very good breaking ball, and a 66/15 K/BB ratio in 58 innings. Of course, the Midwest League is a far cry from the National League, and he projects best as a future middle man.

Grade C guys are a mixture. Chris Oxspring and Wilmer Villatoro could have futures as middle relievers. Oxspring is already 27, quite old, but is an Australian with limited experience early in his career. Krosschell was a 16th round pick from a Colorado high school last year. He pitched well in rookie ball and has upside, but is a long way from being ready to help. Ben Johnson has great physical tools and good power, but erratic plate discipline and a sketchy track record.  

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Matt Bush
High risk because of his youth or because of his attitude?

When they drafted him, I comforted myself with the fact that the last three high school shortstops drafted were something like A-Rod, J.D. Drew and somebody else who escapes my brain at the moment.

by Dex @ Minor League Ball on Mar 12, 2005 1:07 PM EST reply actions  

both
Youth, attitude, and poor performance.

by John Sickels on Mar 12, 2005 1:11 PM EST reply actions  

What a bad pick
For the first pick of the draft.

by ohad @ Minor League Ball on Mar 12, 2005 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

Stauffer
I still like Stauffer. I think he's a bit better than a back-of-the-rotation type guy, maybe a #3. He fits well in that park, too. (Who doesn't?)

by jeck on Mar 12, 2005 1:52 PM EST reply actions  

I agree with "#3"
But I believe he'll be an upper-tier #3 for the Padres (not an earstwhile #4 filling in at #3).

He doesn't have plus velocity, but he does have plus maturity/intelligence and great command. He'll do just fine.

-peter

by PeterF on Mar 12, 2005 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Stauffer...
...I'm what's referred to as a stathead, not much inside info on minor leagues other than what I see in the stats.  Stauffer's K/9 seems a little low but he did manage to move through three levels in his first year out of college.  One stat that would be helpful but hard to find is ground ball/fly ball ratio.  

Chick is a ways away from the bigs but if he puts up ratios at AA this year like he did last year at A ball he will be hard to ignore.

by alstl04 on Mar 12, 2005 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

like Sickles, I blend the 2...
Stauffer was regarded as a #2-3 coming out of college and only a little loss of velocity (he still touches 90-92 - but pitches more around 88) is all that seperates him from that previous evaluation.

He'll be a gem.

-peter

by PeterF on Mar 12, 2005 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

interesting...
...obviously any pitching prospect with a chance to pitch in this ballpark has to get your attention, not unlike Seattle.

Congrats to Sickels for creating this site.  This is a gem.

by alstl04 on Mar 12, 2005 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Billy Killian
I was just wondering if the Padres 2nd pick in the 2005 draft was considered for the list. I know he didn't put up great numbers but he's still young with potential.

by Mike McBride on Mar 12, 2005 2:59 PM EST reply actions  

killian
I gave him a Grade C. Too early to tell beyond that.

by John Sickels on Mar 12, 2005 3:01 PM EST reply actions  

Interesting ranking from...
...GM Kevin Towers:

"Kottaras might be the best position prospect in the organization," Towers said. "He's a good defensive catcher and makes more contact than the other catchers. His power will come as he matures.

- from the North County Times (San Diego)

Interesting unbided priase. I had wondered how the organization viewed Barfield in light of last season.

Barfield is a mixed bag, but Kottaras seems to be universally praised.

-peter

by PeterF on Mar 12, 2005 3:03 PM EST reply actions  

Bozied
His power spike this past year before his freak injury was huge.  Something like half his hits were for extra bases.  Was he projected to have that much power, or did he change his stance/conditioning/outlook on life or what?

by sasquatch83 on Mar 12, 2005 4:05 PM EST reply actions  

Tagg is a big boy ...
Tagg Bozied is a big boy ... http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/tagg_bozied.shtml ... says 6' 3" 210 lbs ... he looked bigger than that when I saw him play for the Beavers last year ... I seem to recall he hit 12 HRs in the AFL a couple of years ago (last year's leader had 8) ... he slugged .694 @ USF in 2000 ... so I think he's been projected to be a power hitter all along ... and, as a Padres' fan, I'm rooting for him to pick up where he left off last year (and by that I mean "hitting home runs", not "blowing out his knee" :-).

by LynchMob on Mar 12, 2005 5:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Travis Chick
This kid looks like the top guy in the Padres system to me (up with Kottaras...Barfield....eh...).  It looks like the Pads are treating him as a "special" prospect, whereas the Marlins kept bouncing him back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation, possibly shaking his confidence a bit, which I think is usually a good sign for further improvement...

Any truth to the reports that his fastball increased a couple (more) mph over the offseason?

by Brickhaus on Mar 13, 2005 12:35 AM EST reply actions  

Where would Dave Pauley have fit in the system?
Seems odd that Pauley was a throw-in from the Pads to Boston in the Dave Roberts deal given the thin/weak SD system.

Where would Pauley have fit?  Thoughts?

by conig166 on Mar 14, 2005 1:24 AM EST reply actions  

Brad Baker
seems to have great stats-- combined 1.48 ERA in 67 innings with 42 hits allowed, 85 strikeouts, 28 BBs, and 34 saves between Double-A Mobile Bay and Triple-A Portland.  Haven't heard much excitement about him though.  Anyone have more info, seen this guy?

by ibmcginty on Mar 14, 2005 2:28 PM EST reply actions  

baker
Baker: fastball 89-91 MPH, sometimes a bit higher, sometimes a bit lower. OK curveball. Best pitch is an excellent changeup.

by John Sickels on Mar 14, 2005 3:12 PM EST reply actions  

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