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Chicago White Sox Top 20 Prospects

Brandon McCarthy (AP)

  1. Brandon McCarthy, RHP, A-        
  2. Gio Gonzalez, LHP, B+            
  3. Brian Anderson, OF, B          
  4. Ryan Sweeney, OF, B            
  5. Josh D. Fields, 3B, B          
  6. Francisco Hernandez, C, B      
  7. Tyler Lumsden, LHP, B-            
  8. Chris Young, OF, B-              
  9. Ray Liotta, LHP, B-              
  10. Sean Tracey, RHP, B-              
  11. Jeremy Owens, OF, C+
  12. Casey Rogowski, 1B, C+          
  13. Kris Honel, RHP, C+              
  14. Wes Whisler, LHP, C+              
  15. Mike Spidale, OF, C+            
  16. Pedro Lopez, SS, C              
  17. Adam Ricks, C-2B, C              
  18. Paulino Reynoso, LHP, C          
  19. Dennis Ulacia, LHP, C          
  20. Antoin Gray, 2B, C              
Some good quality at the top, but the system thins out quickly.

Brandon McCarthy doesn't get the same sort of attention as other pitching prospects. But he should. The guy posted a 202/30 K/BB ratio last year, and he isn't a soft-tosser.

Gio Gonzalez is a risky high school guy. He also posted a 3.03 ERA and 27/13 K/BB in 33 innings in the South Atlantic League three months out of high school. He needs to sharpen up his control, but his pro debut was very impressive and I think he will emerge as a top prospect this year.

I'm less impressed with Brian Anderson than some people are. I mean, I think he's a good solid prospect. Has some power, some speed, has hit .307/.386/.494 through his first 130 pro games, although his production did tail off after his promotion to Double-A. The White Sox are high enough on him that they were more willing to trade Jeremy Reed. But there's just something about Anderson that makes me think he's as good now as he's ever going to get. I can't prove that, of course. But the feeling is there, and sometimes these "intuitive feelings" are actually subconscious pattern recognition. Sometimes.

Ryan Sweeney held his own in the Carolina League at age 19. He hit .283/.342/.379, which isn't that hot. But he was VERY young for the competition, and I think he will improve significantly with more experience.

Josh Fields needs to cut down on his strikeouts (74 in 66 pro games) but he has good power, and enough athleticism to be a fine defensive third baseman with more experience. I don't think he'll be ready until 2007, but by that time the Sox should be thoroughly tired of Joe Crede.

Francisco Hernandez is another overlooked prospect, a Dominican catcher with a career .311/.393/.465 line in the low minors. If he continues to develop, he will be among the elite prospects in the game a year from now.

Ray Liotta and Tyler Lumsden are 2004 draftees, power-armed lefties who will move quickly if their command holds up. Chris Young is a tools outfielder, producer of 24 home runs and 31 stolen bases last year in the Sally League. He also struck out 145 times in 135 games, so he is far from a sure thing.

Sean Tracey owns a 95 MPH power sinker, but has struggled with his command and control. He made progress last year, but Double-A will be a challenge for him.

After that you get into a big group of C+/C guys. Jeremy Owens, recently acquired from the Nationals, has potential as a leadoff man due to his speed and surprisingly good plate discipline. Rogowski has big power and plate discipline, but was a league-repeater last year and has to prove himself in Double-A. Honel was a major disappointment last season, and has to prove that he is 1) healthy and 2) confident. Both are questions. Whisler has a great arm but no refinement. Spidale projects as a useful fourth outfielder. Lefties Ulacia and Reynoso could earn LOOGY spots eventually. Lopez, Ricks, and Gray all have potential but are too far away from the Majors to be sure of at this point. Ricks has the best bat of the trio.

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McCarthy Timetable?
Does he only come up this year if one of the White Sox current starters gets hurt?  Does he need more time in AA or AAA or is he ready right now?  The appearance vs. the Rangers yesterday was impressive even in the spring.

by joerote on Mar 11, 2005 1:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Looking like...
He might get the call this year even if they don't get injured.  Not that one of Duque or Contreras (also known as the Buena Vista Social Club...or at least they're probably just as old) WON'T get injured, but McCarthy looks strong in the spring, and when midseason rolls around and the ChiSox are in the hunt but underacheiving for the umpteenth year in a row, they might as well call up the guy who's probably already the #3 starter on their staff.  

by Brickhaus on Mar 11, 2005 2:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

mccarthy
After their bad experience with rushing Jon Rauch, perhaps the Sox will be a bit more patient with McCarthy?

Perhaps or perhaps not.

I'd give him some more time in the minors if it was up to me, but I tend to be conservative with young pitchers.

by John Sickels on Mar 11, 2005 1:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Young pitchers
I'm inclined to agree with John. I think it's a good idea to be conservative with young pitchers, and that unless they are dominating a level of competition (as in huge K/BB ratios and K/9 ratios) it makes sense to keep them down a level. I also think it's a good idea to be aggressive with young hitters. Oddly enough, many teams take the reverse approach, which I think leads to injured pitchers and hitters who don't develop as well as they can.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Mar 11, 2005 2:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Anderson vs. Sweeney
I definately lean more to the stat side than scout side, and one thing I know to look for is age-related performance. With that in mind I consistently rank Sweeney ahead of Anderson. Am I the only one? Anyone else...???

There's really no glaring weakness in Anderson's game, but Sweeney's candle just burns brighter in my book...

Please respond.

-peter

by PeterF on Mar 11, 2005 2:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

anderson
I can see Sweeney ahead of Anderson because of age reasons, yes. It's certainly a close call.

by John Sickels on Mar 11, 2005 2:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Just out of curiosity
Do oddball factors that only go into play for one person get reflected in the grades / rankings?  For example, we all know that Gio Gonzalez has a psycho mother, and that she's caused him problems in the past (getting kicked off the HS team).  While the consequences really can't be held against him because it wasn't his fault, does knowledge that someone comes from that type of a controlling environment come into play, especially considering whether the organization as a whole coddles the players or not?

BTW, I hear that Ray Liotta's brains are tasty...

by Brickhaus on Mar 11, 2005 2:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

factors
Yeah, Gonzalez has a weird family environment. The only "good" thing about it is that it kept his arm from being abused, but it will be very interesting to see how he adjust to being away from home.

I didn't factor it into the grade too much. Without knowing more details than we do, it is hard to make any sort of concrete judgment when dealing with psychological factors. Witness Ankiel.

by John Sickels on Mar 11, 2005 3:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What should i infer....
What should I infer from the Brandon McCarthy photo? Is his delivery faster than the speed of light?
free Josh Willingham!

by natsfan2005 on Mar 11, 2005 3:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sweeney vs. Anderson vs. Rowand
Good stuff, John.  I was looking forward to this one.

How do the Sox's young outfielders compare to Aaron Rowand?  I didn't hear much about Rowand as a minor leaguer, but he's gone on to be a productive outfielder.  Conversely, I've heard plenty about Sweeney and Anderson, which makes me nervous.

How well did Rowand project in comparison to Sweeney and Anderson at their ages/levels?

by JCM on Mar 11, 2005 3:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

rowand
Hard to compare Rowand with Sweeney, given that Rowand was in college at the same stage that Sweeney is.

Rowand compared to Anderson: Rowand showed superor power to Anderson at all levels, but his plate discipline was not as good. He's been able to develop and overcome/improve that.

by John Sickels on Mar 11, 2005 3:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

McCarthy
As a Twins fan, I can say that I'm not looking forward to the day when Brandon McCarthy earns a spot in the rotation.  He's got some really good stuff.

by Megawatt on Mar 11, 2005 3:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

System ratings
Where is the page rating the various systems by GPA? I know I saw it, but I can't seem to find it now. As a suggestion John maybe that can be posted in a more accessible place on the website.

by bhoov on Mar 11, 2005 5:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Great website!
Oh yeah, great website John. I've been lurking ever since you started and finally decided to post after you posted my favorite team. Thanks!

by bhoov on Mar 11, 2005 5:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You know...
From people like BA and such, McCarthy is arguably the most underrated prospect in baseball.

A 6'7 RH who throws in the low 90's already and at 180 and only 21 years old, he's got lots of room to grow and get more velocity.

He's got great command, he's dominanted every single level in his periphials K'ing 10.4 and walking less than 2.

How could a guy this good across the board, and still very projectable, barely get into BA's top 50?  And BELOW guys like Homer Bailey and others who have barely played pro ball.

And Gio Gonzalez will be my guy (besides Gaby Hernandez) from the 2004 draft to watch. Short lefties who go before the 2nd round make me happy.

 

by SenorGato88 on Mar 11, 2005 6:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

pitchers
where's arnaldo munoz? i can't imagine he's not in the top 20.

also, what about felix diaz? he got utterly bombed in his cup of coffee last year but had pretty impressive stats in the minors. i don't know if he went over the innings limit or not, but i'm curious about how you think he'll develop as a major league pitcher.

by jpahk on Mar 11, 2005 8:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

munoz
Munoz's horrible pitching in Triple-A knocked him to Grade C for me. I had him at 21. You could slot him in a bit higher if you like.

I like Diaz's arm but he needs to make some adjustments. He certainly has the raw ability to be a good pitcher but he's not there yet.

by John Sickels on Mar 11, 2005 8:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

it wasn't *that* bad...
sure, 2-6, 5.68 is ugly, no question. but his K/BB was a pretty reasonable 60/29 in 69 innings. that's not so terrible for a guy who just turned 22 pitching in AAA. and based on the way he carved up AA hitters in the first half of the season at age 21, i'm a little surprised he only merited a C.

by jpahk on Mar 11, 2005 9:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Munoz
I think Arnie's upside isn't much more than left-handed set-up man.  He should be an effective LOOGY at the bigs in a year or two. (heck, he almost made the team 2 years ago)

The Sox converted him into a starter last year and sent him to B-ham in order to rely less on that curveball.  I can't really say that it worked.  

That one start vs. the Spos in Montreal really rocked his confidence.  He hasn't been right since.

by The Cheat on Mar 12, 2005 3:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hmm
I commented on here earlier today but I don't see it showing up.

McCarthy has been really impressive this spring training.
5.1 ips, 0 walks, 1 hit, 2 ks.

If I'm not mistaken, didn't Sweeney win Best Outfield Arm and Best Hitter for Average from Baseball America.

Also, I think one reason for Anderson's drop in production in AA was due to a groin injury that bothered him.

I'm really hoping Fields becomes something special, I'm sick of .300 OBP Crede.

I know nothing about Gonzalez or Hernandez, I'll have to look into them.

Finally, I'm a big Diaz fan.  He got roughed up a lot last year but he has good stuff.  Munoz is also impressive considering his age.  I hope both can have successful careers in the majors.

I also noticed you mentioned Owens, who they recently acquired when they sent Escobar to the Nationals.  Your thoughts on that trade?

by shaftr on Mar 12, 2005 5:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

owens
I don't think Owens is going to develop a lot of power. But for a guy with very little experience (he didn't play much baseball in college), he's shown a refined approach as a leadoff guy. A very intriguing player and a good pickup for the ChiSox.

by John Sickels on Mar 12, 2005 11:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Clint King?
I recall this outfielder had an accomplished college career but haven't heard much about him since the Sox drafted him.  Does he have much promise at this point?

by asinwreck on Mar 12, 2005 11:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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