This is a look at the Reds 1st round picks in the 14 years since 1990 sweep the
Oakland A's in the World Series.

I specifically used the first round selection of the Reds for each year.

Why only the first round pick you ask? Because 1st round draft picks get all the money, the fame and the infamy when it comes to the MLB First year player draft. Typically they are the harbinger of a successful or unsuccessful draft.

Not exactly fair, but they are the big money players, and as I'll show in a minute, the Reds have had extremely dismal luck with picking the big money guys. The First round struggles forshadow how the rest of the system has fallen into a state of disrepair, and now languishes near the bottom in terms of talent in baseball.

Year the player was drafted and selection in the first round. Fully updated for the upcoming 2005 season.

2004: 7th - Homer Bailey - RHP - La Grange High School, La Grange TX

Currently: Expect to open the season at either Billings or Dayton.

Bailey only spent a few months with the GCL club, but early returns statistically were less
than promising. However, Baseball America saw and heard enough in those 12 innings plus instructional league work to name him the Reds No. 1 prospect going into 2005. Had minor knee surgery in the offseason.

MLB Exp: None to date

Analysis: Too soon to tell.

2003: 14th - Ryan Wagner - RHP - Univ of Houston

Currently: Will compete for a bullpen job in Cincinnati

Wagner was lights out at the end of the 2003, and has had a significant setback to begin 2004, suffering a demotion. Still looks to be in the Reds bullpen for years to come, as he again returned to his 2003 form to end the 2004 season.

Major League Exp: Two seasons (66 games)

Analysis: So far, so good.

2002: 3rd - Chris Gruler - RHP - High School(CA)

Currently: Expected to open the season in Billings or Dayton.

Gruler had arm injuries, namely shoulder and arm surgery, that limited him to 6IP in 2003. Limited to 26IP for GCL and just one outing of 2 innings for Billings, where he was rocked. Put up solid numbers for the GCL Reds, but reports now have his velocity topping out in the mid 80's. Was named the Reds No. 1 overall prospect by Baseball America going into 2003.

MLB Exp: None to date

Analysis: Too soon to tell, but hopes are steadily diminishing.

2001: 20th - Jeremy Sowers - LHP - High School(KY)

Currently: Will report to Cleveland's minor league spring training.

Sowers balked at the Reds offer and instead took the scholarship offer from Vanderbilt. Was the Cleveland Indians First round selection in 2004.

MLB Exp: None

Analysis: Bust on the Reds part

2000: 23rd - David Espinosa - SS - High School(FL)

Currently: Will start season off with either Detroit's AA or AAA club.

Espinosa, along with 2nd round pick Dane Sardinha, was able to use agent Scott Boras to land a major league contract and a multi-million dollar bonus from the Reds. Was moved to 2b before traded to the Tigers for RHP Brian Mohler when the Reds were in the playoff hunt. Has since been moved to CF. Played 134 games at AA last season, putting up some solid power numbers.

MLB Exp: None

Analysis: Still could be a major leaguer as he's still only 23. Impact is debatable as Mohler was not retained the following season. Not quite a bust on the Reds part but not a positive either.

1999: 14th - Ty Howington - LHP - High School(WA)

Currently: No word on where he'll be assigned to begin the 2005 season.

Howington has been plagued by injuries in his six years with the Reds. Was rumored as a possible pick in the Rule V draft in 2004 but was not selected. Had another injury in 2004 and was out for the entire season.

MLB Exp: None

Analysis: Career likely over. Bust.

1998: 7th - Austin Kearns - RF - High School(KY)

Currently:  Reds Starting RF

Kearns, along with the Reds LF Adam Dunn who was taken 2nd in 98, will likely anchor the Reds OF for the foreseeable future. Rocketed thru the Reds minor league system, and made his major league debut in 2002. Since then has not played more than 107 games in any of the last three season. Struggled with injuries for yet another year in 2004.

MLB Exp: Three seasons (253 games)

Analysis: Must get over injury bug to take the next step. Can be the Reds best overall player when healthy. Still a young 24, with a long career ahead of him.

1997: 14th - Brandon Larson - SS - Louisiana State Univ

Currently: Will compete for a 3B/DH job for Tampa Bay in Spring Training.

Larson was highly rated for several years, as he was a former College World Series MVP when drafted. Former Reds 3B Aaron Boone moved to 2nd to accommodate Larson in the spring of 2003, but never lived up to expectations. Could never showcase power he demonstrated at AAA in the bigs. Plagued by injuries in his pro career. Released in Sept of 2004 after a season filled with injuries and poor performances.

MLB Exp: 4 years(109 games)

Analysis: Total major league return after seven seasons: 8HR, 37RBI, .179BA & .271OBP in 109 games. Bust.

1996: 25th - John Oliver - OF - High School(PA)

Currently: Out of baseball

Never rose above A ball. Oliver was traded to the Red Sox in 99, having hit .208
in three years in the Reds system.

MLB Exp: None

Analysis: Bust

1995: Team forfeited its 1st round pick with the signing of Damon Berryhill.

1994: 9th - C.J. Nitkowski - LHP - St. John's Univ

Currently: Signed by the Minnesota Twins to be a lefty specialist.

Nitkowski made the Reds team in 95, starting 7 games, with 32IP, and a 6.12ERA.
Traded to the Tigers for David Wells.

MLB Exp: Nine seasons(329 games)

Analysis: Nitkowski has been a serviceable reliever for a decade. Although I
doubt the Reds wanted to take a lefty specialist in the first round. His trade
did net Wells, who was a key contributor during the 1995 season, the only year
since 1990 when the Reds made the playoffs. Wells was then turned after the 95
season for Trovin Valdez and Curtis Goodwin. Valdez was a organization washout
while Goodwin was the Reds fourth OF for the next two seasons.

1993: Team forfeited its 1st round pick with the signing of John Smiley

1992: 5th - Chad Mottola - OF - Central Florida Univ

Currently: No word yet if Mottola has signed a minor league contract anywhere

Mottola played 35 games for the Reds in 1996, getting 79AB and batting .215. Was the "player to be named later" during a deal with the Rangers in 1998. Homered in his first year back this season in the majors as an
Oriole, but only ended up playing in six MLB games in 2004.

MLB Exp: 4 seasons (49 games)

Analysis: Bust - Was expected to be a Reds power hitter when drafted 5th overall at age 20, but
has never panned out. Interesting side note, the Reds Chief Scouting Director at the time, Gene Bennett, was overruled on the drafting of Mottola by the entire Reds scouting staff. The
director had wanted to take a 17 year old SS out of Michigan named Derek Jeter.

1991: 20th - Calvin "Pokey" Reese - SS - High School(SC)

Currently: Starting 2b for the Seattle Mariners

At one point, the deal for Ken Griffey Jr. was at a halt because the Reds refused to include Reese in the deal. Less than 2 seasons later, he was shipped to the Rockies for Luke Hudson and Gabe White. Reese spent five season with the Reds, batting .285 in 1999.

MLB Exp. 8 seasons (856 games)

Analysis: Considering the regard with which the organization held him at one time, Pokey's fall with the Reds was sharp and swift. Would be an everyday 2b for most major league teams.

-Note- This is a reposted Diary entry that I first typed up on JD Arney's Red Reporter.