Young Pitcher Symposium: Oliver Perez

by John Sickels on Feb 28, 2005 11:11 AM EST in News Comment 17 comments

Oliver Perez
Similar Pitchers by Sim Score

Pete Falcone (969)
Moe Drabowsky (966)
Sandy Koufax (965)
Rube Bressler (965)
Steve Trout (964)
Vinegar Bend Mizell (962)
John Henry Johnson (962)
Balor Moore (961)
Dave Stieb (961)
Mike Witt (960)

Other Comparables
Mark Langston
Ken Holtzman
Billy Pierce
Mickey McDermott
Jim Merritt
Juan Nieves

Some very good names on this list, ranging from a Hall-of-Famer in Koufax to several really-good-but-not-great guys like Langston, Pierce, and Holtzman to some guys who burned out early. Perez is one of my favorite pitchers, but there are obvious questions about his durability and whether or not he can sustain a heavy workload.

Book grades on Oliver Perez

2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook: Grade C+, based on his pitching in Class A, with the notation that I was "optimistic about his chances to be a decent pitcher" but that I was worried about his long-term durability. His 2001 pitching in A-ball was marked by strong K/IP and H/IP rates, but his walk rate was mediocre. There was no real reason, either stathead or traditional, to think he would advance as quickly as he did. In their 2002 prospect book, Baseball America ranked Perez as the 10th-best prospect in the Padres farm system, with pitchers Dennis Tankersley, Jake Peavy, Mark Phillips, Eric Cyr, and Ben Howard all ranking ahead of him. Perez made it to the Majors much sooner than expected, making 15 starts for the Padres in 2002 with only a handful of innings in the upper minors under his belt.

Perez's experience, as well as that of Carlos Zambrano, show how Grade C+ pitching prospects can develop unexpectedly, leaving more-heralded guys in the dust.

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Comments

Koufax & Trout

When was the last time you saw these two guys on the same list???

by sabernar on Feb 28, 2005 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

trout

Trout really isn't that comparable...his presence on the list shows a weakness in the traditional Sim Score method.

by John Sickels on Feb 28, 2005 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this may be sacreligious

but i see a lot of similarities between the development of Perez and Sandy Koufax. Neither gives up a lot of hits, both struck out a ton, and both had trouble with walks early in the major league careers, which both started very young.

Of course, you can say that about a lot of guys, so take that for what it's worth.

Perez made great strides in his walks last year, and there's no reason to believe that was a fluke. He doesn't turn 24 until August. I really think the sky is the limit for this kid.

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 28, 2005 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dave Stieb

is the answer to my all-time favorite trivia question.

Can anyone guess what that question is?

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 28, 2005 11:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Stieb

Does the trivia question have anything to do with the amount of 1 hitters, or no hitters he took into the 8th or 9th. It seemed like he always came close but never was able to close it out.

by SeckUC on Feb 28, 2005 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yep.

stieb is the only pitcher to ever take no-hitters into the 9th inning in consecutive starts, only to allow a hit in the 9th both times.

another feller named Ewell Blackwell once bragged that he was "going to be like Johnny," a.k.a. his good buddy Johnny VanDerMeer, meaning he'd throw 2 consecutive no-hitters. Well, he got the first, and then lost the second one in the 8th or 9th inning.

by AwfulWaffle on Feb 28, 2005 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Durability

Of all the pitchers we have discussed, I worry about his potential injury more than anyone (yes, more than Beckett). I do consider the "sleeping on my shoulder wrong" thing as a fluke, but he looks like an injury risk when pitching. He looks somewhat lanky and fragile. He held up last year pitching more innings than ever and averaging 104 pitches per start. I'm not sure how long that will last though.

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Feb 28, 2005 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Holtzman and Koufax!

All Perez needs is about 100+ more wins and a conversion to become the third winningest Jewish pitcher in history!

by PhillyBooster on Feb 28, 2005 12:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lol

by ohad on Feb 28, 2005 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Easy to root for this guy

To me, he's the most fun/exciting to watch--even more than Willis. Yeah, probably the biggest injury risk, too. But, man, 11 K/9!

It was amazing how much he changed mechanics and strategy before and during last season. That's one reason I give the Padres a bit of a pass for dealing him (even though I didn't like the trade at the time)--maybe they were afraid he'd already flamed out. Evidently, he had not.

"They have to be excited right now, they're ACTUALLY beating the Yankees!" - Al Trautwig, YES Network

by chunkylover22 on Feb 28, 2005 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Question for John

John, I really like the pitcher sym. and the organizational rankings. I don't get a chance to check the page everyday though. Have you thought about archiving these features so that they're in one place and a little more accessible so, for instance, if somebody wanted to move back and form between Perez and Peavey they wouldn't have scroll through a bunch of unrelated posts.

Just an idea.

Thanks

Jim

by Montreal97 on Feb 28, 2005 1:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

spin williams

Spin Williams did a great job with Perez after they acquired him from san diego. You can make a case that he may have to develope a better changeup so he can preserve his arm, but his mechanics look pretty sound.

He definitely has electric stuff and is one of the most exciting lefties to watch in the game.

by Bobo2 on Feb 28, 2005 1:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Great Trade

What a great trade for the Pirates. They landed Perez and Jason bay for the huge Giles contract. Pittsburgh does not seem to do much that I think is right (the Aramis Ramirez deal was one of the worst to me in the last five years), but this trade was a great one.

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Feb 28, 2005 1:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Comparisons

Best lefty pitcher the Pirates have had since my namesake. Took the winter off to save on wear and tear, perhaps explaining why his arm was sore early at camp. Giles was actually considered a bargain when he was traded for Perez, Jason Bay and Cory Stewart. Littlefield got this one right, although I'm still bummed over the Jason Schmidt for Ryan Vogelsong deal. Perez is a rare pitcher who can get away with pitches high in the strike zone because of the deception of his windup, the speed of his pitches, and the movement of those pitches. I would be ecstatic if he didn't improve a bit, but maintained status quo from here on in. He was that good in 2004.

by Candymanfan on Feb 28, 2005 6:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

I've been a huge Perez fan since he was in San Diego, but I still think the guy is an injury waiting to happen. His windup looks like there is a ton of strain on his arm, the fact that he is more 5'10 than 6'1 also gets me thinking he's probably going to get hurt.

But I'll be hoping he doesn't, he's one of my faves to watch and he'll be a good one if he stays healthy. Amazing if he gets better control.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 28, 2005 10:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs