Experimental Projection System
I am working on a projection system of my own. It is experimental but I want to get some numbers out there before the seasons starts and see how it stands up.
Dallas McPherson-Anaheim Angels
2005 Projection JSPS-2
AB: 445
H: 118
2B: 24
3B: 5
HR: 22
BB: 36
K: 115
BA: .265
OBP: .320
SLG: .490
SB: 6
CS: 4
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34 comments
Comments
compare to other projection systems
by sabernar on Feb 27, 2005 4:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ZiPS
(John's vs ZiPS)
AB: 445 vs 501
H: 118 vs 138
2B: 24 vs 26
3B: 5 vs 6
HR: 22 vs 27
BB: 36 vs 47
K: 115 vs 153
BA: .265 vs .275
OBP: .320 vs .351
SLG: .490 vs .513
SB: 6 vs 14
CS: 4 vs 8
by kingofthehobos on Feb 27, 2005 5:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
.054 OPS difference
by sabernar on Feb 27, 2005 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pecota?
by sabernar on Feb 27, 2005 5:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
PECOTA
It gives him 324 AB's, 88 hits, 19 2B, 2 3B, 16 HR, 33 BB, 98 K.
pecota is pretty useless when it comes to minor league hitters, or hitter with very little service time. it tends to overstayte how they'll do.
I don't think his BA or OBP will be that high for his rookie year, though. And he'll definitely get more than 324 AB's barring injury, of course.
by AwfulWaffle on Feb 27, 2005 5:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
McPherson Projecitions
by DrBGiantsfan on Feb 27, 2005 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A monster
by Goodfella on Feb 27, 2005 6:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bill James Projections
AB: 445 vs 532
H: 118 vs 156
2B: 24 vs 33
3B: 5 vs 8
HR: 22 vs 37
BB: 36 vs 47
K: 115 vs 175
BA: .265 vs .293
OBP: .320 vs .351
SLG: .490 vs .594
SB: 6 vs 13
CS: 4 vs 8
by WAC on Feb 27, 2005 6:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bill James aims high...
by Sodomann on Feb 27, 2005 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
James is ridiculous
YOUNG PLAYER 2005 PROJECTIONS
Kubel, Minn.* .317 17 .909
McPherson, Ana .293 37 .945
Mauer, Minn .314 16 .867
Pickering, KC .277 34 .967
Wright, Mets .309 27 .929
Swisher, Oak .234 24 .792
Bay, Pitt .289 37 .923
Upton, TB .294 18 .842
Youkilis, Bos .271 6 .790
Morneau, Minn .280 32 .878
*Projection made before season-ending injury
Mcpherson's .945 OPS is way too high, but Pickering's .967 almost made me lose my lunch.
David Wright is a great prospect, but he's not getting .929 in that park, next year.
and James also projected Bonds to end up with 918 homers, so perhaps subtlety isn't his strong point.
by AwfulWaffle on Feb 27, 2005 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: James
by natsfan2005 on Feb 27, 2005 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
James
many of these minor leaguers will be lucky to achieve those numbers during their primes. I can promise you right now that Calvin Pickering won't ever put a .967 OPS. I doubt he comes within .100 of that.
by AwfulWaffle on Feb 27, 2005 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
James projection
by natsfan2005 on Feb 28, 2005 8:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure
by ohad on Feb 28, 2005 9:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
contrary
Now if James forecasted Huston Street to get some time at DH and post a .967ops I might believe that. The kid has off the charts makeup.
by natsfan2005 on Feb 28, 2005 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmm
by ohad on Feb 28, 2005 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
37 homers?!?!?!?!
by Doug on Feb 27, 2005 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pecota, James, and ZiPS agree...
by kingofthehobos on Feb 27, 2005 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
another data point
by John Sickels on Feb 27, 2005 6:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Marcel
199 ABs, 8 HRs, .266/.342/.447, at 15% reliability
by kingofthehobos on Feb 27, 2005 7:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Marcel
For rookies, since they have almost no major league stats, the projection is almost entirely the league average.
by Nick Schulte on Feb 28, 2005 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
last years projections
by sabernar on Feb 27, 2005 8:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
John?
by ohad on Feb 28, 2005 1:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
projections
by jhelfgott on Feb 28, 2005 2:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
projections
by John Sickels on Feb 28, 2005 10:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Don't want to be selfish
by ohad on Feb 28, 2005 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re:projections
by Bobo2 on Feb 28, 2005 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
BABIP
by Yankfan on Feb 28, 2005 7:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Explanation maybe?
The major league BABIP for 2004 was right at .300. I'm guessing Yankfan figured out what Pickering's BABIP would have to be based on James numbers and concluded it would be .488. Since that is totally off the charts, he seems to be saying James numbers are screwy. Of course, Pickering might go on a diet, lose 100 lbs. and beat out all those grounders to second.
by socalcardfan on Mar 1, 2005 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, no
by Yankfan on Mar 1, 2005 1:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
McPherson
by bbrewer124 on Mar 1, 2005 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
A bit of an adjustment
Prospectus: 26 HRs
Bill James: 37 HRs
ZIPS: 29 HRs
Forecaster: 31 HRs
John Sickels: 26 HRs
James is still the most optimistic, but it's not as insane. One thing about the Prospectus system is that they tend to estimate low on plate appearances....at least from what I've seen.
by nygiants5811 on Mar 6, 2005 11:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
hello,
by calabrohuaca on Dec 17, 2006 6:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs









