Young Pitcher Symposium: Dontrelle Willis
AP Photo
Similar Pitchers by Sim Score
- George Van Haltren (984)
- Juan Pizzaro (979)
- Pete Falcone (977)
- Steve Trout (976)
- Tom Underwood (976)
- Johnny Kucks (975)
- Vinegar Bend Mizell (974)
- Don Robinson (973)
- Ross Grimsley (968)
- Frank Dwyer (966)
Lefty Gomez
Jim Abbott
Juan Nieves
Marcelino Lopez
Britt Burns
Dontrelle Willis book grades:
2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook: Grade C, as a promising short-season pitcher in the Cubs system, showing good control but a below average strikeout rate.
2003 Baseball Prospect Book: Grade B+, coming to the Marlins in the Matt Clement trade. Grade improvement was due to excellent performance in full-season ball, including a better strikeout rate. I projected him as a future number two starter, although I must admit I did not expect him to pitch much in the Majors in '03.
Willis is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. There was some slippage in his numbers last year, including a reduced strikeout rate and deterioration in his H/IP, granted that can be a flukey stat and is heavily dependent on team context and luck. The 2005 Baseball Prospectus (which showed up in my mailbox on Friday) projects some bounceback in his numbers this year, although it also notes that given his weird mechanics and his workload at a young age, Willis is "not the safest bet" over the next year or two. Ron Shandler in his fine Baseball Forecaster also projects slight improvement in Willis' numbers, but also sounds a note of caution about his workload.
There are some good parallels in the comp list, although it also reflects the weaknesses in the basic Sim Score method. Van Haltren and Dwyer are 19th century guys that don't tell us much. Guys like Pizzaro and Falcone are better comparisons. Kucks and Robinson, being righthanders, really don't fit as comparables.
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11 comments
Comments
Dontrelle
by ohad on Feb 27, 2005 2:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Off Topic
And Dontrelle Willis is cool.
by jte87 on Feb 27, 2005 4:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
not a fan
by sabernar on Feb 27, 2005 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Dammit
I think its just that whole 2003 ROY thing where Webb should have won. I hate when people are hyped hard. It just annoys me.
He's a good pitcher though. But I'd take Beckett (a healthy one) and Harden over him in the future.
by SenorGato88 on Feb 27, 2005 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
On the D-Train
As far as potential goes, he doesn't have a ceiling as high as guys like Beckett and Harden. However, I think he's more likely to fulfill that potential and be a solid #2 guy. He's been more durable than Beckett and shows better command than Harden. In other words, I'd take Harden and Beckett over Willis, but would guess Dontrelle has a better career than one of those guys. His workload doesn't worry me too much. According to PAP he accumulated very little stress last year, and never threw more than 113 pitches in a game.
by Catchpenny on Feb 27, 2005 9:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
A Dontrelle story...
I've never seen so many A's fans root against the A's.
Dontrelle got the win that day.
I also was a coworker of one of his neighbors.
by secret asian man on Feb 27, 2005 10:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
lefty
by cookiedabookie82 on Feb 28, 2005 11:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Dontrelle
by Bobo2 on Feb 28, 2005 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Love the guy, but...
One day he'll struggle early, compose himself and shut down the opposition until ole' Jack comes out in the 5th or 6th because he's reached his pitch limit. The next he'll come out blazing and hit a wall in the 5th. Other times he's solid throughout.
But, damn, is he a good pitcher.
Two of the more amazing stats on him:
- Failed to reach the 7th inning in 15 of his 32 starts.
- Despite having many spectacular outings, his only scoreless outings came in April.
by rferry on Feb 28, 2005 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Willis...
Seriously though, Willis is good enough to be a solid 3, even with the slippage, and he's a publicist's dream, so he'll be in the forefront even if it's not warranted for a long time to come. Whether or not he's that great, he's fun to watch and has a great attitude, which always helps me root for a kid.
by Brickhaus on Mar 1, 2005 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
willis
by John Sickels on Mar 1, 2005 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs









