Young Pitcher Symposium: Dontrelle Willis

by John Sickels on Feb 27, 2005 11:45 AM EST in News

AP Photo

Similar Pitchers by Sim Score

George Van Haltren (984)
Juan Pizzaro (979)
Pete Falcone (977)
Steve Trout (976)
Tom Underwood (976)
Johnny Kucks (975)
Vinegar Bend Mizell (974)
Don Robinson (973)
Ross Grimsley (968)
Frank Dwyer (966)

Other Comparables
Lefty Gomez
Jim Abbott
Juan Nieves
Marcelino Lopez
Britt Burns

Dontrelle Willis book grades:
2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook: Grade C, as a promising short-season pitcher in the Cubs system, showing good control but a below average strikeout rate.

2003 Baseball Prospect Book: Grade B+, coming to the Marlins in the Matt Clement trade. Grade improvement was due to excellent performance in full-season ball, including a better strikeout rate. I projected him as a future number two starter, although I must admit I did not expect him to pitch much in the Majors in '03.

Willis is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. There was some slippage in his numbers last year, including a reduced strikeout rate and deterioration in his H/IP, granted that can be a flukey stat and is heavily dependent on team context and luck. The 2005 Baseball Prospectus (which showed up in my mailbox on Friday) projects some bounceback in his numbers this year, although it also notes that given his weird mechanics and his workload at a young age, Willis is "not the safest bet" over the next year or two. Ron Shandler in his fine Baseball Forecaster also projects slight improvement in Willis' numbers, but also sounds a note of caution about his workload.

There are some good parallels in the comp list, although it also reflects the weaknesses in the basic Sim Score method. Van Haltren and Dwyer are 19th century guys that don't tell us much. Guys like Pizzaro and Falcone are better comparisons. Kucks and Robinson, being righthanders, really don't fit as comparables.

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Dontrelle

He is one of my favorite pitchers. It's so cool that he's good at hitting.

by ohad on Feb 27, 2005 2:37 PM EST 0 recs

Off Topic

All these people with their Prospectuses are making me upset! My Amazon page says it hasn't shipped, but at least now the Prospectus page says it usually ships in 24 hours. It didn't say that a couple days ago, so maybe it will be off to me on Monday.

And Dontrelle Willis is cool.

by jte87 on Feb 27, 2005 4:11 PM EST 0 recs

not a fan

I've never been a fan of Willis. Not sure why, but he's always bugged me. And whenever I've seen him pitch, he just wasn't impressive. All the other young pitchers that have been mentioned here I would rank much higher then Willis. And so do, apparently, the projections.

by sabernar on Feb 27, 2005 4:52 PM EST 0 recs

Dammit

I am not a fan of Dontrelle, but I gotta admit, the guy is a good pitcher. Great control, above average K rates, keeps the ball in the park. I mean theres nothing to not like.

I think its just that whole 2003 ROY thing where Webb should have won. I hate when people are hyped hard. It just annoys me.

He's a good pitcher though. But I'd take Beckett (a healthy one) and Harden over him in the future.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 27, 2005 5:22 PM EST 0 recs

On the D-Train

I like Dontrelle. He's a joy to watch, it's obvious that he has a lot of fun out there.

As far as potential goes, he doesn't have a ceiling as high as guys like Beckett and Harden. However, I think he's more likely to fulfill that potential and be a solid #2 guy. He's been more durable than Beckett and shows better command than Harden. In other words, I'd take Harden and Beckett over Willis, but would guess Dontrelle has a better career than one of those guys. His workload doesn't worry me too much. According to PAP he accumulated very little stress last year, and never threw more than 113 pitches in a game.

by Catchpenny on Feb 27, 2005 9:59 PM EST 0 recs

A Dontrelle story...

Two years ago during interleague the A's (the team Dontrelle rooted for when he was a kid) played the Fish. I was at a bar in Alameda, CA (his hometown) and saw the game with a bunch of dieheard A's fans in full regalia (I wasn't because I had a rehearsal to attend).

I've never seen so many A's fans root against the A's.

Dontrelle got the win that day.

I also was a coworker of one of his neighbors.

by secret asian man on Feb 27, 2005 10:00 PM EST 0 recs

lefty

most important in looking at willis is that he is a lefty...he would have to be horrible not to be valuable.

by cookiedabookie82 on Feb 28, 2005 11:21 AM EST 0 recs

Dontrelle

I love this guy. Fun to watch on the mound and pretty decent stuff. He is murder on lefty hitters. I'd like to see him make some adjustments to get righties out more consistently.

by Bobo2 on Feb 28, 2005 1:28 PM EST 0 recs

Love the guy, but...

as a fan of the Marlins he's hard to watch. He's not consistent. You never know what's going to throw off his control.

One day he'll struggle early, compose himself and shut down the opposition until ole' Jack comes out in the 5th or 6th because he's reached his pitch limit. The next he'll come out blazing and hit a wall in the 5th. Other times he's solid throughout.

But, damn, is he a good pitcher.

Two of the more amazing stats on him:

Failed to reach the 7th inning in 15 of his 32 starts.
Despite having many spectacular outings, his only scoreless outings came in April.

by rferry on Feb 28, 2005 2:12 PM EST 0 recs

Willis...

Hey man, Willis will never be as good of an outfielder as Van Haltren (nor will he cause as much debate in the Hall of Merit process, in all likelihood)...

Seriously though, Willis is good enough to be a solid 3, even with the slippage, and he's a publicist's dream, so he'll be in the forefront even if it's not warranted for a long time to come. Whether or not he's that great, he's fun to watch and has a great attitude, which always helps me root for a kid.

by Brickhaus on Mar 1, 2005 2:16 PM EST 0 recs