Statistical Analysis Questions
I'm no stats expert, but there are a couple of methodological questions I've been curious about and thought I'd throw out there to get feedback on:
- Why is OPS never considered when rating pitchers? It's become the de facto uberstat for rating batters, but it seems to me that if it is relevant to hitters, it should be relevant to pitching as well. Even if you consider it somewhat out of a pitcher's control (perhaps due to defense, park effects, randomness of balls put into play), it still seems more relevant than h/ip...heck, even opponent slugging % alone would seem more relevent than h/ip. Am I missing something here?
- Is there such a thing as skill in being hit by pitches, and should it be included in analysis? I realize that for 98% of players the numbers involved are pretty insignificant...but there are some guys who consistently get plunked at rates that make me think they stand out there and insult the pitchers' mothers. Don Baylor is the classic example, but there are current players whose HBP rates should seem to warrant mention as well (eg. Shea Hillenbrand was hit 12 times last year - half of his walk total; over his career he's got 37 HBP and 86 BB).
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pitchers - Opp OPS
However, there are quite a few who look at opp OPS for pitchers. I use it. I tend to focus on it for MLB pitchers rather than minor lg prospects as I'm much less versed in minor league park factors that affect opp SLG.
For instance in my diamond mind baseball replay league I signed Glendon Rusch to a one year contract primarily b/c his Opp OPS was among the league leaders despite pitching in a homer friendly park. Meanwhile Lawrence and Eaton had much worse Opp OPS while pitching in a great pitchers park (Petco). Rusch was undervalued and I was able to sign him for one year while other owners in my league gave big $$$ to those Padres pitchers for long term deals. I'll get less risk and better performance for my $$$.
Lastly, Opp OPS isn't entirely neglected by the mainstream baseball media. I've seen Gammons reference it in atleast 3 Diamond Notes columns.
by natsfan2005 on Feb 17, 2005 4:31 PM EST reply actions
HBP
by CatsBack2Back on Feb 17, 2005 4:38 PM EST reply actions
Also
by CatsBack2Back on Feb 17, 2005 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Craig Biggio
by rdiersin on Feb 17, 2005 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
Craig Wilson ...
Jason Kendall is in the same category -- 25 and 19 HBP the last two years. They added .019 to his OBP last year. I wonder if going to the AL will affect it at all...
You'd think
by CatsBack2Back on Feb 17, 2005 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
Lack of skill
I guess my point with both of these questions was more in reference to prospect analysis. Natsfan2005, you're right, I've seen opponent OPS used in discussions about big leaguers, now that I think about it. It just seems to me that it could be a more useful tool than h/ip when used to analyze minor league stats as well, and this is one area that I haven't seen it used much at all. I just finished reading the Prospect Book and for some reason these questions came to mind in that context.
good questions
Batters HBP may not be a skill, but it's certainly a characteristic of some hitters. Biggio and Baylor were two Major Leaguers who were hit constantly, and it looks like Carlos Quentin will be the next generations HBP guy.
Black OPS
The whole DIPS idea might suggest otherwise. I don't see why slow outfielders who turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples should be blamed on the pitcher.
Hmmm
by CatsBack2Back on Feb 17, 2005 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
DISH
The main difference between how pitchers & hitters are judged in this area appears to be strikeouts. Strikeouts are a highly regarded number for pitchers, but advanced hitting metrics are quite forgiving of batter-strikeouts.
Blaming the Pitcher
Then I guess you don't like ERA as a stat either because it is certainly hurt by poor fielding and helped by good fielding. Like any stat Pitchers OPS has to viewed in context it wouldn't be any more perfect than any other statistical analysis, but my point is that it should have value in helping to measure a pitcher.
No, I don't like ERA
Pitcher's OPS
When looking to project future performance, the frequency of how many hits a pitcher gives up is more telling than how far the ball went. Ig a pitcher is giving up more hits than inning pitched, then immediate red flags go up. You don't have to worry about how hard he is being hit.
Most guys who give up a low frequency of hits are not getting hit hard. It is the exceptions you have to look out for. A guy in the lower minors with a good H/IP, but a penchant for giving up HRs might be challenging too many people because he is overconfident, or perhaps his stuff is good enough to fool most of the league, but not the great hitters.
Looking at H/IP, W/IP, and HR/IP is essentialy doing the same thing as OpOPS, but you are looking at the parts instead of the sum. By isolating the parts, we can get a clearer picture of what the pitcher's weaknesses and strength are.
by bads85 on Feb 18, 2005 1:52 PM EST reply actions
DIPS
HR/IP K/IP K:BB are my favorite measures for a pitcher, but again I think pitcher OPS should provide meaningful information if taken in context with the rest of the stats.
Actually
by CatsBack2Back on Feb 18, 2005 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

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