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Statistical Analysis Questions

I'm no stats expert, but there are a couple of methodological questions I've been curious about and thought I'd throw out there to get feedback on:

  1. Why is OPS never considered when rating pitchers? It's become the de facto uberstat for rating batters, but it seems to me that if it is relevant to hitters, it should be relevant to pitching as well. Even if you consider it somewhat out of a pitcher's control (perhaps due to defense, park effects, randomness of balls put into play), it still seems more relevant than h/ip...heck, even opponent slugging % alone would seem more relevent than h/ip. Am I missing something here?
  2. Is there such a thing as skill in being hit by pitches, and should it be included in analysis? I realize that for 98% of players the numbers involved are pretty insignificant...but there are some guys who consistently get plunked at rates that make me think they stand out there and insult the pitchers' mothers. Don Baylor is the classic example, but there are current players whose HBP rates should seem to warrant mention as well (eg. Shea Hillenbrand was hit 12 times last year - half of his walk total; over his career he's got 37 HBP and 86 BB).
I look forward to hearing people's thoughts on these ideas!

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pitchers - Opp OPS
I think with pitchers many tend to gravitate towards K/9, HR/9, WHIP (and its components), etc..

However, there are quite a few who look at opp OPS for pitchers. I use it. I tend to focus on it for MLB pitchers rather than minor lg prospects as I'm much less versed in minor league park factors that affect opp SLG.

For instance in my diamond mind baseball replay league I signed Glendon Rusch to a one year contract primarily b/c his Opp OPS was among the league leaders despite pitching in a homer friendly park. Meanwhile Lawrence and Eaton had much worse Opp OPS while pitching in a great pitchers park (Petco). Rusch was undervalued and I was able to sign him for one year while other owners in my league gave big $$$ to those Padres pitchers for long term deals. I'll get less risk and better performance for my $$$.

Lastly, Opp OPS isn't entirely neglected by the mainstream baseball media. I've seen Gammons reference it in atleast 3 Diamond Notes columns.

by natsfan2005 on Feb 17, 2005 4:31 PM EST reply actions  

HBP
I think players who tend to stand closer to the plate are obviously going to get hit by pitches alot more. It's not so much a "skill" as a consequence of one's playing style. Though, as an A's fan, I do remember that at one point it seemed like every time Frankie Menechino pinch-hit he was purposely trying to get plunked.

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 17, 2005 4:38 PM EST reply actions  

Also
Maybe some guys are just slower or not as good at dodging balls thrown at them. Which would make the tendency to get HBP not a skill, but rather a lack thereof... :)

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 17, 2005 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Craig Biggio
If it is not a skill then explain Craig Biggio. Nobody would proclaim him slow in getting out of the way. He dives into the pitch with his huge elbow pad.

by rdiersin on Feb 17, 2005 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Craig Wilson ...
... is also a HBP monster.  Led the NL in HBP with 30 (!) last year, compared to 50 BB (and 169 K).  He's had 21 in 424 PA, 13 in 358 PA, and 30 in 644 PA the last three years, so this seems at least somewhat repeatable.  It's a big reason he can still post decent OBPs despite his below average plate discipline.

Jason Kendall is in the same category -- 25 and 19 HBP the last two years.  They added .019 to his OBP last year.  I wonder if going to the AL will affect it at all...

by shayborg on Feb 17, 2005 7:52 PM EST up reply actions  

You'd think
You'd think HBP numbers would go up in the AL, as pitchers don't run the risk of being hit in retaliation... Though it could be just another baseball myth. Anybody have the numebers?

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 17, 2005 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

yes
a recent paper by an economics professor (i don't have the citation handy) demonstrated that the DH constitutes a "moral hazard." in plain english, this means that yes, the AL has more HBP because of the lack of fear of direct retaliation.

by jpahk on Feb 18, 2005 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Lack of skill
That's an interesting point, hadn't thought of it that way. It must be an interesting debate that goes through a hitter's mind in that split second that the pitch is heading at him - the battle between instinctively getting out of the way and perhaps trying to take a plunking to reach base. I definitely know which way I'd lean (no pun intended) :)

I guess my point with both of these questions was more in reference to prospect analysis. Natsfan2005, you're right, I've seen opponent OPS used in discussions about big leaguers, now that I think about it. It just seems to me that it could be a more useful tool than h/ip when used to analyze minor league stats as well, and this is one area that I haven't seen it used much at all. I just finished reading the Prospect Book and for some reason these questions came to mind in that context.

by fargocraig1971 on Feb 17, 2005 5:31 PM EST reply actions  

good questions
I don't see why Pitchers OPS allowed shouldn't be a very good measure of effectiveness.

Batters HBP may not be a skill, but it's certainly a characteristic of some hitters.  Biggio and Baylor were two Major Leaguers who were hit constantly, and it looks like Carlos Quentin will be the next generations HBP guy.

by eastin on Feb 17, 2005 5:33 PM EST reply actions  

Black OPS
I don't see why Pitchers OPS allowed shouldn't be a very good measure of effectiveness.

The whole DIPS idea might suggest otherwise. I don't see why slow outfielders who turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples should be blamed on the pitcher.

by Salemicus on Feb 17, 2005 7:38 PM EST reply actions  

Hmmm
Has anybody ever thought about putting together DISH (defense-independent stats for hitting)? If pitchers shouldn't be punished by bad fielding, maybe hitters shouldn't be awarded by it either?

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 17, 2005 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

DISH
Some people do like to track the Three True Outcomes (TTO) percentages.  I don't think its taken too seriously, but its given players like Rob Deer and Russell Branyan a bit of a cult following.

The main difference between how pitchers & hitters are judged in this area appears to be strikeouts.  Strikeouts are a highly regarded number for pitchers, but advanced hitting metrics are quite forgiving of batter-strikeouts.
 

by DavidFoss on Feb 18, 2005 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Blaming the Pitcher
I don't see why slow outfielders who turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples should be blamed on the pitcher.

Then I guess you don't like ERA as a stat either because it is certainly hurt by poor fielding and helped by good fielding.  Like any stat Pitchers OPS has to viewed in context it wouldn't be any more perfect than any other statistical analysis, but my point is that it should have value in helping to measure a pitcher.

by eastin on Feb 17, 2005 10:03 PM EST up reply actions  

No, I don't like ERA
Or, at least, I think there are better measures of a pitcher's true level of talent. ERA is important in terms of how a pitcher affected past games. But it has been shown that there are a number of stats which correlate better with future ERA than past ERA does.

by Salemicus on Feb 18, 2005 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Pitcher's OPS
>>>   1. Why is OPS never considered when rating pitchers? It's become the de facto uberstat for rating batters, but it seems to me that if it is relevant to hitters, it should be relevant to pitching as well<<<<

When looking to project future performance, the frequency of how many hits a pitcher gives up is more telling than how far the ball went. Ig a pitcher is giving up more hits than inning pitched, then immediate red flags go up. You don't have to worry about how hard he is being hit.

Most guys who give up a low frequency of hits are not getting hit hard. It is the exceptions you have to look out for. A guy in the lower minors with a good  H/IP, but a penchant for giving up HRs might be challenging too many people because he is overconfident, or perhaps his stuff is good enough to fool most of the league, but not the great hitters.

Looking at H/IP, W/IP, and HR/IP is essentialy doing the same thing as OpOPS, but you are looking at the parts instead of the sum. By isolating the parts, we can get a clearer picture of what the pitcher's weaknesses and strength are.

J.P.

by bads85 on Feb 18, 2005 1:52 PM EST reply actions  

DIPS
hasn't Voros McCracken proved that pitchers have very little control over hits allowed.  What they mainly control are walks, strikeouts, and homers.

HR/IP K/IP K:BB are my favorite measures for a pitcher, but again I think pitcher OPS should provide meaningful information if taken in context with the rest of the stats.

by eastin on Feb 18, 2005 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually
It's not that he found that pitchers have little control over hits allowed, but rather they have little control over whether a ball in play turns into a hit or an out.

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 18, 2005 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

HBP
In 2004, there were .94 HBP/100 PA in the NL and 1.03 HBP/100 PA in the AL.

by LogicRules on Feb 18, 2005 1:52 PM EST reply actions  

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