Rangers Top 10 Pitching Prospects

1) Juan Dominguez:

On the afternoon of Saturday, June 5-while the extraordinary thoroughbred Smarty Jones was narrowly missing out on capturing the Triple Crown at nearby Belmont Park-Juan Dominguez was, quite improbably, putting on the most impressive athletic performance in the Big Apple that day, holding the Yankees to a single run on five hits and a walk in eight frames, while exuding an astounding level of self-assuredness along the way.

In hindsight, that day is as maddening as it is awe inspiring because, for a variety of reasons (some of which remain a bit murky) Dominguez's summer went downhill from there.

The Dominican right-hander continues to wield what is probably the single best pitch in the entire system-a devastating change-and his fastball can be (and usually is) a plus pitch. Those two pitches look identical coming out of Dominguez's hand (and, actually, both look like they are going to be changeups due to of his molasses-slow delivery). Dominguez appears to be full of self confidence as well.

He still struggles with a breaking ball after junking his weak slider in favor of a developing a slurvy thing that showed promise at times last year. His fastball gets hit hard when he gets it up in the zone and Dominguez is still a long way from understanding how to pitch (Glen Abbott actually said that Dominguez "has no idea how to pitch" last summer). Dominguez seems to lack maturity, sometimes failing to behave like a professional and a string of minor injuries that may or may not actually merit the substantial number of DL days he has racked up is disconcerting.

Over 54 innings in the PCL, Dominguez simply had his way with Triple A hitters without regard for which side of the plate from which they stared back at him. It is remarkable that Dominguez held right handed hitters to a woeful .203 average and lefties to a nearly identical .209, and his G/F ratios were virtually identical: 1.70 against righties and 1.66 versus lefties. The situational numbers are also dazzling. Batters leading off an inning hit .167 against Dominguez. The opposition hit .213 against him with runners on and .214 against him with runners in scoring nposition. There is little doubt: Dominguez profiles as a starter, and arguably an ace.

In 23 big league innings, however, the splits were terribly lopsided. The right handed Dominguez manhandled lefties (.159 / .188 / .250 in 44 at bats)-which is not at all unusual for pitchers featuring a plus-plus change-while right handers killed him (.400 / .460 / .556 in 45 at bats), usually because he got his fastball up in the zone.

PROJECTION: The upside here is so enormous that I am still willing to overlook the fact that something about Dominguez reminds me of Juan Gonzalez, and not in a good way. He has shown enough to allow us to believe that he has the pure talent to handle big league hitters and so Dominguez should (better!) hold down a spot in the Rangers rotation all year. He might very well establish himself as one of the most important young starters in the game. There will still be some rough spots in his road; how many is anyone's guess. But I think that there is a good chance that Alomar can help him find the best in himself. Showalter is on record saying that he doesn't believe in personal catchers, but putting this guy next to Sandy Alomar as much as possible may very well be the key to Dominguez's future.

2) Thomas Diamond:

Going into the 2004 amateur draft, the Rangers knew that the pitcher they really wanted--University of New Orleans right hander Thomas Diamond--probably wouldn't be on the board when the their first pick, number ten overall, rolled around. Missouri high school star Scott Elbert was brought in for a workout and, more than likely, he was all set to become a Texas Ranger. But then, just minutes before the Rangers were ready to announce their pick, Baltimore dropped a bomb by going with Rice's Wade Townsend. Suddenly, and Texas knew that they would get either Chris Nelson (described by some as a young Gary Sheffield) or Diamond. They felt they couldn't lose and, so far, it seems that they were right.

A pre-draft scouting report published on BA described Diamond as follows: "His stuff has been a little inconsistent, but it's been very good the last five to six weeks, and it's getting better as the season goes on. His fastball is a heavy downer that I've seen up to 97 (mph), but it's mostly 93-94. Last time out I saw him at 96 in the ninth inning. He throws it to both sides of the plate and at a downhill angle. He's a bull with a strong build. I'd ditch the curveball; he doesn't need it because his slider is better. It's late, quick and hard at 83-84. His change is 79-82, and it fades down (in the zone) at the end."

At 6'2" and a solid 230, Diamond draws physical comparisons to Roger Clemens and there are a variety of reports that Diamond can be found throwing harder in the seventh inning than he did in the first. In the wake of his first professional season, scouts gave the slider lukewarm reviews and were generally unable to decide which breaking ball had the better chance of developing into a big league pitch. At this point, Diamond lacks a quality third pitch.

Statistically, you couldn't have expected more out of Diamond's professional debut. He manhandled the NWL over the course of five appearances, posting a 2.35 ERA, fanning 26 in 15 innings before moving on to the MWL to find even greater success, with a 2.05 ERA over seven starts. The Midwest League hit .167 against Diamond, who fanned 42 in 30.2 frames. He was so dominant that its impossible to get a read on his splits: Right handers hit .193 against him and lefties flailed away at a .137 clip, with a G/F ratio of almost exactly 1.00 against both.

PROJECTION: Diamond will begin the season in Frisco, consistent with John Hart's publicly stated philosophy of pushing prospects. Buck Showalter hinted to the Star-Telegram's Randy Galloway earlier this winter that there is some thought that Diamond might see the big leagues this year. If he masters the Texas League, he should stop off in Oklahoma for four or five starts and I would not be surprised if he arrives in Arlington by August.

3) John Danks:

Don't take it for granted that your bonus baby pitching prospect taken out of high school two years ago is still the darling of the organization and healthy, or that he has conquered a full-season league within a year of being drafted. Jeff Allison, the Marlins version of John Danks, is in a drug rehab somewhere in Massachusetts (or possibly out of it, trying to score some more Oxy Contin). Baltimore's Adam Loewen is broken down. So is L.A.'s Greg Miller. So is Philly's Cole Hamels. Whether John Danks turns out to be Zack Greinke or Colt Griffin remains to be seen, but so far so good, and that's something worthy of our appreciation.

Danks wields the best curve in the system, by all accounts and a solid fastball with armside run that figures to improve as he matures physically, but which is already a high quality offering. Scouts and coaches frequently use the word "poise" when talking about Danks and he showed some of that on a national stage last summer, calmly pitching out of a jam as one of the youngest players in the Futures Game. However, while noticing that people often use the word poise when talking about Danks, I've also noticed that there are a few stories out there that suggest he sometimes lacks it. He got roped into a bizarre spat with an umpire during his rookie year in Spokane and Baseball America makes a point of noting that "[h]e needs to handle in-game adversity better" in its scouting report on Danks.

Danks is blessed with pure athletic ability (he probably would have been drafted as an outfielder had he never stepped on a mound). His change--a new pitch--has earned encouraging reviews for a new pitch, but it is a work in progress and he'll need to improve on it to succeed as he climbs the ladder. "He didn't have a changeup in spring training, and now it's really come along," Stockton pitching coach Andy Hawkins told Baseball America in early August. "He shows a lot of poise for a 19-year-old. He's competitive. He took a whipping in spring training and never got down on himself. He's shown a lot of aptitude and really learned as the year has gone on."

Danks confirmed all of the glowing scouting reports and projections during his brief-but-dominant tenure in the MWL, posting a 2.17 ERA in 49 innings during which he fanned 64 batters and walked only 14. The league hit a measly .202 against him and, though he was just barely 19 years old, he was sent to California where he was finally challenged. Danks posted a 5.24 ERA over 13 starts, fanning 48 in 55 innings while walking 26. The league hit him at a .290 clip. As is often the case, Danks's struggles in Stockton can, in part, be traced to a focus on developing in an area of weakness rather than merely relying on his best stuff--a good fastball and one of the best benders in the business.

At both stops in 2004, Danks--a lefty--was quite a bit more effective against right handers (.183 in Clinton and .269 in Stockton) than lefties (.263 in Clinton and .333 in Stockton), which is hard to explain considering that his curve is his best pitch and his change is his worst. I don't know this, but I suspect that part of the reason he struggled in the Cal League is that for developmental reasons he was being asked to throw the change much more often than his reliable curve.

PROJECTION: There have been several published suggestions that Danks, who was considered the 11th best prospect in the Cal League by Baseball America, will probably move on to Frisco to start the 2005 season in spite of struggling at high A Stockton last year. A return to the Cal League would seem prudent, especially in light of the number of arms who belong in the RoughRiders' rotation. He's certain to end his season in Frisco whether he begins it there or not.

4) Chris Young:

Epiphany: (1) : a usually sudden manifestation or perception of the essential nature or meaning of something (2) : an intuitive grasp of reality through something (as an event) usually simple and striking (3) : an illuminating discovery (4) happened to Chris Young last summer.

Chris Young made four starts for Frisco in July and it wasn't pretty. Yes, he recorded three victories, but his ERA was 4.82 and opponents hit a gaudy .312 against the towering right hander. On the strength of that performance, he was shipped off to Oklahoma City and somewhere during the two and a half hour drive north, Young evidently had a moment of clarity.

In his first PCL start, Young went six innings, allowing a run on five hits and a pair of walks, fanning five. And then he just kept on getting even better. Much better. He made four starts in August, posting a 1.48 ERA, fanning 28 hitters in 24 innings and holding the opposition to a batting average of .174. Think about that: .312 in double A and .174 in triple A over eight equally divided starts in the course of about a month. It can't possibly have been the same guy, right?

Watch this progression: In Frisco, right handers hit Young at a .260 clip while lefties hit a solid .281. Both right handed hitters (0.66) and lefties (0.71) hit more flies than grounders against Young. In Oklahoma, right handers hit .211 against Young whose G/F ratio against them was 1.77. Lefties hit only .163, hitting more flies than grounders (0.73). In the big leagues, right handers pounded Young at .347 / .397 / 1.022 (Young especially didn't care for Vladimir Guerrero, who went 4-6 against him, including a pair of bombs), but lefties struggled mightily, hitting only .153 / .219 / .254--in 72 at-bats against each.

I have to say this again: double A lefties hit Young at a .281 clip, triple A southpaws got to him at only .163 and big leaguers managed a pathetic .153. So in Frisco, the right-handed Young was noticeably stronger against right handed bats, but thereafter--in the wake of the epiphany--he was just the opposite. Once again: this can't possibly be the same guy, can it? Then again, where does one find a ringer who is nearly seven feet tall?

In fact there was no ringer and moreover, there was no sudden moment of clarity for Chris Young as he drove through the Ardmore mountains in southern Oklahoma en route to Oklahoma City. His dramatic turnaround was the result of his own hard work with Frisco pitching coach Steve Luebber, who has proven to be a marvelous teacher insofar as he can convince young men to cure a weakness, even if it means that they have to suffer a little bit along the way.

Luebber didn't have the benefit of working with Young in spring training since he came over from the Expos in the last-minute Einar Diaz deal, so he just watched him for three or four starts and then went to work, accentuating the 6'10" right hander's length by increasing his stride and lengthening his arm action.

These changes in Young's deliver apparently did three things: (1) added a great deal of velocity (he threw in the 86-88 range as an Expos prospect in 2003, roughly 88-90 when he debuted with Frisco, and sat at 95-96 by the time he reached Texas); (2) probably improved his curve (the version he threw against major leaguers was an altogether different pitch than the one he was throwing against Texas Leaguers in June and July); and (3) created an angle on his pitches that no hitter has ever seen. I feel confident in saying that no hitter Young faced this year had ever faced a 94 mph heater that left the pitchers hand ten feet off the ground and came in at the knees. Moreover, this change in his delivery, and continued improvement of his circle change, probably explains the fact that, post-Frisco, he became far more effective against lefties than right handers.

"Chris started to add velocity, but more importantly," said Luebber, "he threw more strikes. Eventually, he kept the ball down more consistently and finished off his pitches better. He was going to be a five or six inning guy unless he became more consistent because he got behind so much, but by the time he left us [in Frisco], we felt that he was ready to be more than that." There were other issues for Luebber and Young to work out. Young's enormous hands sometimes made it difficult to find a comfortable, consistent grip on his curve. With Luebber's help, Young figured that out too. The roundhouse you saw in Arlington certainly wasn't part of Young's assortment in April or May.

PROJECTION: After inking a three year deal major league deal in order to keep him from jumping on a contract offer from the Sacramento Kings, Young will be given every chance to win a spot in the Rangers rotation this year. He'll have to make a dramatic improvement against right handed hitters to hold onto his spot.

5) Kameron Loe:

As Jamey has pointed out, eighteen months ago, Kameron Loe might very well have found himself toiling in the Clinton bullpen had the Rangers system not employed the eight-man, tandem starter system on its low minor league teams. With Erik Thompson, Nick Masset, Domingo Valdez, Cesar Herrera, and Omar Beltre in Clinton at the start of the 2003 season, it is entirely possible that Loe would have been shut out of the rotation. His first professional season was ordinary at best, going 4-4, 4.47 allowing a .271 batting average at Rookie Advanced level Pulaski.

But Kameron Loe--a 20th round selection in 2002--always, and I mean always, gets better. In 2003, Loe came out of nowhere to establish himself as perhaps the most dominant pitcher in the MWL, posting a 1.95 ERA in 97 innings, earning a promotion to high A Stockton where, impossibly, he was even better, posting a 0.96 ERA over 37.2 frames.

Loe was given a spot in the Frisco rotation to begin the 2004 season and more than one expert told me that they expected him to essentially reach the end of the road: that Loe lacked the stuff to succeed in double A. And through his first month, the naysayers looked pretty smart as the 6'8" right hander went 0-3 with a 5.06 ERA and the league pounded him at a .294 clip.

But Loe hung in there and got a little better, going 2-2 / 4.24 / .338 in May. He improved some more in June, going 4-1 / 2.47 / .248 and by the time July rolled around, Loe was proving himself to be far too much for the league to handle, going 1-1 / 1.24 / .228. Moving on to the PCL, Loe was crushed in July with a 7.50 ERA, but then (of course) he got better, putting up a 2.97 mark in August and a 1.29 in September, earning a callup to the big club.

When Loe stops improving, I'll start to listen to those who say he can't make it all the way.

One finds mixed signals when looking deep into Loe's numbers. In the Texas League, his G/F ratio was an astounding 2.06 and in the PCL his G/F was a very good 1.79. But his control regressed a bit in 2004. As he tore through two levels of single A ball in 2003, Loe maintained a K/BB ratio of nearly 5-1, but this year he fanned 97 and walked 29 in 113 innings with Frisco and fanned 42 and walked 13 in 52.1 frames with Oklahoma, which still comes out to a very strong ratio of 3.31 / 1.

In case you doubted Loe's heart, consider this: Texas League hitters leading off an inning against him hit .300, but when they came up with runners in scoring position, they went down to .223; and with runners in scoring position and two outs, they collapsed to .153.

But the fact of the matter is that Loe gets hit, especially by lefties (.283 in the Texas League and .302 in Oklahoma) who tend to get a very good look at the stuff coming out of the long-limbed righty's side-swiping arm angle. He gets away with relatively high opponents batting averages because he walks so few batters, and hitters have a hard time lifting his ball. Steve Luebber worked hard with Loe through the early months of the season to raise his arm angle a bit and develop his change in order to keep lefties off balance, and while he made progress with those changes, he still has a lot of work to do. Bet on this kid.

PROJECTION: Loe will almost certainly return to the PCL where he will be near the top of the list to return to Arlington when the traditional, annual, obligatory CHoP meltdown occurs. However, unless he makes significant progress in his efforts to stave off lefties--and he certainly might--he could end up as a reliever.

6) John Hudgins:

Nobody would have laughed at you if, back in June, you had said that the two best pitching prospects in the Texas League (and perhaps even all of baseball) were Jeff Francis and Felix Hernandez. In fact, Baseball America ranked them as the top two pitching prospects in the league, and yet neither of them enjoyed the seamless transition from the Cal League to the Texas League that John Hudgins did.

Hernandez, the Mariners' prized teenaged phenom, went 9-3 with a 2.74 ERA in the Cal League this season while Hudgins went 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA. In his first month as a Texas Leaguer, Hernandez went 2-1 / 4.05 and the league hit him at a .248 clip. Francis, who ended his Texas League tenure with a 1.98 ERA started off with a 3.63 through first four starts. Meanwhile, Hudgins went 2-2 / 2.45 and held the league to a .203 average through his first six Texas League starts.

Now I don't want to offend Mr. Hudgins, but in order to ward off a merciless beating from the world of prospect watchers, let me make it clear that I am not saying that Hudgins is better than Hernandez or Francis. Probably nobody is better than Hernandez right now. What I am pointing out is that it is very rare to see a guy move from the Cal League to the Texas League and find it no more challenging than High A ball. The very best pitching prospects struggle with that move at least a little bit, but Hudgins didn't.

The intensely competitive Hudgins frequently draws comparisons to Greg Maddux because when he is on his game, he paints, he orchestrates, he sets hitters up, he toys with their minds. It is an awesome sight to behold. But when he's not on top of his game, he begins to remind me a bit of Rick Helling (and that's not just because both were aces at Stanford).

Both hit double A with little more than a cup of coffee in A ball. Helling made 26 starts in the Texas League, posting a 3.60 ERA in Tulsa and Hudgins made 12 starts, posting a 3.13 ERA in Frisco. Like Helling in his prime, Hudgins brings a fastball that sits at 88-90, but is unafraid of challenging hitters with it nonetheless. Like Helling in his prime, Hudgins features a plus curve. And like Helling, Hudgins gives up way too many dingers. Hudgins yielded 12 jacks in 69 Texas League frames. For frame of reference, Kameron Loe gave up 5 in 113.

But get this (and I think that it will tell you a lot about John Hudgins): only one of the 12 bombs he surrendered in Frisco came with runners on base. Hudgins recently told me that "most of the home runs I gave up were thrown right where I wanted them" and this stat suggests that he is telling the truth. He is aware of where he is liable to be taken deep and he doesn't take the risk of going inside when the risk is too high. He loaded the bases just once in 69 innings at Frisco and the Texas League hit just .205 with runners in scoring position. Clearly, Hudgins doesn't let things get hot too often and when they do, he girds it up.

Frisco pitching coach Steve Luebber believes that the reason Hudgins gives up so many long balls is that when he comes inside, he often doesn't get the ball up enough and he doesn't have quite enough velocity to get away with any mistakes on the inner half, especially if he comes in with a four-seamer that lacks movement. Moreover, Luebber believes that Hudgins "sometimes comes inside when he doesn't need to." Hudgins agreed with the assessment, adding that the two-seamer that Luebber began to teach him this summer and continued to work on this fall will help him.

Hudgins also points out that he struggled with the long ball in his first season as a starter at Stanford, yielding 17 in 105 innings as a Sophomore. He made the necessary adjustments the next season, his last as a collegian, and gave up just 12 in 165 innings.

It is interesting to note that Hudgins, who generally receives lukewarm reviews of his supposedly pedestrian stuff, averaged a strike out per inning this season, making him the only starter in the system besides Thomas Diamond, John Danks and Matt Lorenzo to do so.

PROJECTION: Hudgins will almost certainly begin his season in Oklahoma where he will be in line to ascend to the major league rotation. He might struggle just a bit early as he seeks to gain command of the two-seamer Luebber taught him, but you can count on him to eventually do so and become an obvious choice to fill a spot in the back of the Rangers rotation, should the need arise (and what are the odds it won't?).

7) Nick Masset:

It hasn't been easy for Nick Masset who went into his senior year of high school expecting to end it with a first round selection in the 2000 amateur draft and a scholarship to LSU, but early in the spring of that season, the heralded prospect blew out his elbow, saw all of that anticipated opportunity vanish, and began the long hard road back from Tommy John surgery.

The Rangers took a DFE shot on Masset in the 8th round, watched him go off to JUCO, and then signed him before the 2001 season, sending him off to the Gulf Coast League (Rookie) club where he struggled, going 0-6 with a 4.35 ERA in 15 appearances. Masset then spent two years in low A with results that ran from ordinary to poor. And then in the middle of the 2003 season, it all started to come together. For the last three or four months of the 2003 season in Clinton, Masset finally got it.

The Tampa-area native was assigned to the high A Stockton rotation to begin the 2004 season and dazzled in his first appearance, getting a win in a four shutout inning appearance during which he allowed one hit, issued one walk and fanned three, but a day or two later, he came up with a baffling wrist injury that occurred while lifting weights and was sidelined for a couple of months.

He returned to the Stockton mound in June, making four unimpressive appearances. Then July rolled around and Nick Masset took off, going 3-0 in six appearances spanning 28.2 innings, posting a 2.51 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP while holding the opposition to a .224 batting average. After another solid month in August, Masset was summoned to Frisco to join the RoughRiders for their pennant drive and he dazzled, posting a 1.80 ERA and holding the Texas League to a .242 average. And after what was, by all accounts, a very impressive showing at fall instructionals in Surprise, there is suddenly a significant buzz about Masset in this organization.

It is when you look deep into Masset's numbers that you begin to become truly impressed. His grounder-to-fly ratio against Cal League right handers was 1.95 and against lefties, it was 1.46. It is also very interesting to note that Masset held right handed hitters to a .240 average while lefties fared virtually no better at .243. In Frisco, Masset's G / F ratio was 2.00 in ten innings of regular season work. He is equally effective against both right handers and lefties and he consistently gets ground ball outs while pounding the zone, issuing very few walks.

Masset commands a rare five-pitch assortment that includes a four seamer that now sits at 90-95 (his velocity increased in fall instructs), a heavy sinker at 90-91, a circle change at 78-81, an improving curve at 77-80 and a cutter at 86-89. The cutter is generally regarded as his best pitch. Everything he throws tends to be quite heavy.

Masset's action is very easy; almost effortless, taking a short arm path and a very short stride (though he worked on lengthening it in fall instructs). He (obviously) does a very good job of keeping the ball down in the zone. Lengthening the stride, says Steve Luebber, should help Masset finish off his pitchers a little better and do an even better job of keeping the ball down.

Perhaps just as important as the consistent improvement in his stuff and control, Masset has matured emotionally and seems to have finally put the disappointment of his senior year in high school behind him. The self-doubt that has dogged him throughout his professional career has vanished, and he now presents as a confident young man rather then the doubting Thomas he seemed to be two years ago.

PROJECTION: Masset was added to the 40 man roster this winter, pushing ahead of Kelvin Jimenez and Erik Thompson for that privilege. He will return to the Frisco rotation where he must show consistency over the long haul, something he still hasn't done. He was up-and-down throughout 2003 and minor injury disrupted what was otherwise a very strong 2004 season. This figures to be the year that Masset puts it all together and positions himself to compete for a spot at the back of the Rangers rotation in 2005. Luebber, clearly excited about Masset, adds: "Nick has no idea how easy or how big his success can be." Masset is on the verge of a major breakout and the club clearly thinks very highly of him right now. All he needs to do is seize the opportunity.

8) Josh Rupe:

You can make the argument that Rupe should be in the top three of this list and then turn around and say he doesn't quite belong in the top ten. He moved from A ball to double A this year and aside from one overwhelmingly dominant start, he seemed to be overmatched against the Texas League. Rupe is immensely talented, possessing what is probably the most impressive overall repertoire in the system, but he lacks the maturity, consistency and pitching savvy to allow any significant degree of confidence that he will soon figure it all out. On the other hand, if he does, his stuff could make him a big league ace in short order.

Like Nick Masset, Rupe's season was set back by an injury and so we didn't get the full flavor of what he can become, but everybody who saw him witnessed a ton of talent still needing to be refined significantly. Rupe started in Stockton, but lasted just one start before suffering a forearm strain that cost him almost two months. A four game rehab stint in Spokane probably shouldn't even count when evaluating Rupe's season, but for what its worth, he manhandled the league, posting a 1.50 ERA with 19 whiffs and three freebies in 18 frames while holding opposing hitters to a .209 average. His G/F ratio was a stunning 2.66.

He returned to Stockton for three more appearances and was even more dominant than he had been in the NWL, posting an ERA of 0.98, fanning 14 and walking four in 18.1 innings, holding Cal League hitters to a .182 average while inducing 13 grounders and two fly outs against lefties but 8 grounders and 14 fly outs against right handers.

Obviously having nothing left to prove to the Cal League, Rupe was promoted to Frisco in late July and made seven generally ordinary if not disappointing appearances for the Riders (4.38 ERA; 16 K's and 16 BB's in 37 innings). And then the playoffs rolled around. And all of the promise of Josh Rupe became evident once again. In game two of the first round, he baffled hot-hitting Tulsa, blanking them for seven innings on five hits and a pair of walks, setting eight down on strikes. But then, in spite of chalking up a win against Round Rock, he was ordinary, allowing three runs on seven hits and three walks in five innings of work.

Rupe, who turned 22 in August, is a strong, 6'2", 190 pounder, and looks athletic enough to be a top center fielder. He features an impressive four-pitch assortment (cut fastball, curve, change and slider) that is pretty much universally regarded as outstanding on all counts. BA calls the cutter his best pitch, but Rupe's pitching coach in Frisco, Steve Luebber, says that "the curve has gotten so good that hitters just give up on it; they don't even swing." To an extent, this crisis of abundance currently hinders Rupe's game. Luebber cites Rupe's supreme confidence in all four pitches as something of a liability, admitting that Rupe "really doesn't quite know why he throws which pitch when. The more he learns about pitching and how to study hitters, the more effective he'll be."

PROJECTION: Rupe could use some more time in the Texas League and will probably get it, but depending on how many John Wasdins are stashed away on the Oklahoma roster, he could begin the season in the PCL. If Rupe finally grasps the art of pitching and figures out what to do with his plus stuff (and when to do it), he could be in the Rangers rotation by the end of the year. He's that good.

9) Wes Littleton:

I was too damn high on this guy last winter. And when he started off slow at high A Stockton, I am ashamed to say that I lost my faith.

Littleton fell off the map quickly after a poor start to the 2004 season which dampened the pre-season enthusiasm surrounding him, but he generally got better through the year. In April, he posted a 5.21 ERA in 19 innings; in May he dropped to 4.55 in 27.2 innings; in June, he went back up to 5.23 in 20.2 innings; in July it was 3.34 in 35 frames and in August, 2.35 in 30.2 frames.

Ultimately, Littleton's 4.15 ERA was eighth best overall in the Cal League and then he went to the Arizona Fall League where, as one of few pitchers who had not yet reached double A, he put up a 2.65 ERA in 17 innings of work, holding that league of outstanding hitters--in a year when the hitters were noticeably dominant--to a .229 batting average.

Littleton is blessed with the ability to put a bunch of run on the ball--perhaps too much run. Because his ball moves so much, it is nearly impossible for him to locate it like an Erik Thompson or a John Hudgins. He spent much of this year struggling with his mechanics. Littleton, a sturdy 6'1", 185--thick through the lower body--generally throws from a straight sidearm, but--like Loe, another side arm right hander--experimented with a higher slot which, if mastered, should improve his slurvy slider and make his change more effective against left handed hitters.

Even when things are going well for Littleton, lefties hit him very well. Overall last season, Littleton held right handed hitters to a .224 average while lefties got to him at a .316 clip. He induced 1.49 grounders for every fly ball against righties and only 1.11 against left handers, who get a good look at the ball coming from the side-arming right hander's release point. He does a good job of keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just seven home runs in 141 innings. But he walked 56 hitters (fourth most in the Cal League) and fanned just 72. Littleton's inability to get lefties out consistently is a much bigger problem than Loe's because Loe rarely issues a walk.

PROJECTION: Littleton figures to start off in the Frisco rotation, but he is one of perhaps as many as eight starters who could fit in the Frisco rotation (Rupe, Masset, Jimenez, Moreno, C.J. Wilson, Diamond, Danks), so competition will be fierce for those slots. He ended the season on such a positive note--trending upwards with exceptional performances in July and August and a very strong showing in the Arizona Fall League--that it would be foolish to bet against him earning a spot as a starter in the Texas League.

10) Edison Volquez:

Imagine a slightly more robust Pedro Martinez in his early 20's. Volquez (formerly known as Julio Reyes), stands 6'1" and packs a solid 170 pounds on an athletic frame punctuated by huge hands and long fingers. Scouts love his frame, his loose arm, and his essential talent.

A graduate of the Rangers' Dominican program, he arrived in the United States in 2003 where he threw 27 innings for the Arizona Rookie Club, failing to post eye-popping numbers.

At Clinton through the first four months of the season, the 21 year old Volquez was maddeningly inconsistent (6.75 ERA in 13.1 April innings; 2.49 in 21.2 May frames; 5.92 in 24.1 innings in June) , but then in July (2.86 in 28.1 innings), he found something and began a run that carried him through the rest of the summer. He was an immediate success in Stockton, going 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA through six starts in August, fanning 26 while holding the league to a .205 average through 31.2 innings. He reached his peak on August 20, throwing seven innings and allowing only one earned run to Bakerfield, allowing three hits and one walk while fanning nine.

The evidence suggests that Volquez dramatically improved his change over the course of the summer. In Clinton, he held right handers to a .235 average while lefties got to him at a .260 clip, but in Stockton, righties got to him for a .250 average while lefties suffered with a .178 showing. At both stops, by the way, he induced more ground outs against right handers (67 / 44 in Clinton and 21 / 17 in Stockton) and slightly more fly outs against lefties (27 / 31 in Clinton and 17 / 21 in Stockton).

Like Pedro, Volquez's arsenal includes fastball, curve, change. His heavy fastball sits at 92-95, his bender is inconsistent but promising, with legitimate two-plan break. Aside from the velocity of his fastball, his best weapon may be the plus change that, by the time he reached Stockton, he was turning over for armside run and sink.

At this point, command an consistency are the hurdles that Volquez must clear. He evidently struggles to repeat his delivery. In 90 MWL innings, he issued 30 walks and 14 in 39.2 Cal League frames. Even in the Dominican Winter League, where he is making a very fine showing, he has walked nine through 22 innings of work (he fanned 24 during that span, by the way). These aren't horrible numbers, but they need to get better to move up, even in light of the organization's post-Fuson privileging of stuff over command.

There's still probably too much projection involved with Volquez to make too much ado over him, but the fact that he ended the season on a such a strong note, showing consistent dominance from the beginning of July through the end of the season (and into the winter), there is reason to believe that he is about to break out big time, making the most of what is widely regarded as an impressive assortment of stuff.

PROJECTION: Volquez will return to the Cal League to begin the 2005 season, but he is one of the relatively few "stuff" guys in an organization filled with command / finesse pitchers, so he will be watched very closely and pushed quickly if he give the organization any reason to do so. If his April is anything like his August, he'll be in Frisco before the all-star break.