Projecting Future Similarity

by okbluejays on Feb 14, 2005 7:47 PM EST Comment 19 comments

Here is a thread for us to look at minor leaguers in John's book and compare their future performance with actual major leaguers. For example, some see Dan Meyer as the next Mark Mulder, while others see him as the next Odalis Perez (that would be me!).

Let me start off with another comparison: Marcus Giles and Chris Burke. Thoughts?

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Burke Comparisons

"Let me start off with another comparison: Marcus Giles and Chris Burke. Thoughts?"

That's the exact player who comes to my mind when I think of Burke. Good contact hitter with some HR power, but mostly doubles power. Solid defense as well.

Now he's not nearly as good......I think Buchholz' stuff is comparable to Ben Sheets.....at least from what I saw from him in ST last year.

Dallas McPherson- the next Jim Thome or....Russell Branyan?

by stubbyc on Feb 14, 2005 8:17 PM EST reply actions

my thoughts

Well, Ben Sheets wasn't BEN SHEETS until last year... what a jump in his stats. But while it's possible for Buchholz, I wouldn't bet on it.

As for McPherson, I'm very high on him. His strikeouts don't worry me nearly as much as they probably should. I think he's a lot more Thome than Branyan.

by okbluejays on Feb 14, 2005 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

Burke...Biggio

The name I've seen more associated with Burke is Craig Biggio.

by rockies73 on Feb 15, 2005 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

Meyer vs. Mulder

On the A's insider board there's a lengthy discussion as to whether Mark Mulder did steroids. He had an increase in velocity of around 7 mph on his fast-ball bewteen his rookie season and his sophomore season, and in 2004 we all saw his velocity dip back again. It's all just speculation, but if it were true, I for one would hope that Meyer-Mulder comparison doesn't hold up, if you know what I mean...

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 14, 2005 8:29 PM EST reply actions

Mulder

Let me preface this by saying it is all heresay and secondhand, don't know Mulder or A's scouts myself:

Haven't read that thread, but his rookie year was a mess that ended with a back injury and a puzzling drop in velocity from his days at Michigan. Before his sophomore season much was made of his change in workout to focus on core strength, supposedly bringing his velocity back to where it had been as a college starter. I haven't seen Meyer myself, but I hope the comparison holds up. I still think there was more to Mulder's struggles than they were saying last year, but nobody's talking so we;ll just have to speculate

by Doug on Feb 15, 2005 10:04 AM EST up reply actions

roids

Wasn't Mulders drop just related to that hip problem?

by slurve on Feb 14, 2005 8:35 PM EST reply actions

Nobody knows

Mulder says it was all mental.

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 14, 2005 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

analysis?

Has there been any analysis on the effect of steroids on a pitcher as opposed to a hitter? I know the data would be hard to generate given that people don't generally admit to steroid use and don't lay out when they started and how long they did it for. I would have thought that an increase in strength for a SP combined with a reduction in flexibility or "looseness" might be a net negative. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any SP that look like Gabe Kapler, or anything close.

by okbluejays on Feb 14, 2005 8:39 PM EST up reply actions

Pitchers and roids

"Off the top of my head, I can't think of any SP that look like Gabe Kapler, or anything close."

Pitchers would most likely try and build massive lower body strength and core strength...not bulging biceps. Supposedly Mulder used to squat some enormous amount of weight. Is that due to performance enhancing drugs? I dont know, and none of us will probably ever know the answer to that.

I personally think any advantage roids would give would be more valuable to a pitcher than a hitter...that extra 2mph you may be able to pick up could be huge.

by chri5 on Feb 14, 2005 8:52 PM EST up reply actions

lower body

That's interesting... I remember reading somewhere that Oswalt had an unbelievable lower body, which helped him generate that great fastball (he's a "short" guy). I use this as an example of the importance of the lower body, not to insinuate that his strength or groin problems are steroid related (he's actually one of my favorite pitchers).

On the other side, Pedro Martinez doesn't look like he's come across too many dumbbells in his career, and he is "short", and he at least used to throw major heat (he's around 91 tops now). I guess some guys just have it (... and, good mechanics always helps).

by okbluejays on Feb 14, 2005 9:08 PM EST up reply actions

Gammons Reported...

I saw on Baseball Tonight several months ago that Peter Gammons was reporting that if the names of all steroid abusers came out the public would be amazed that the number of pitchers would be longer than hitters.

As to Pedro, there is a great photo out there today of him "hitting" the weights in St. Lucie.

by rockies73 on Feb 15, 2005 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Mets

Many close to the Mets farm system have criticized the Mets for signing Carlos Beltran because Lastings Milledge is supposed to be the next "Carlos Beltran". They both hit for power, have spped, are great fielders, but Milledge may hit for a higher average.

by mrmetaa on Feb 14, 2005 8:52 PM EST reply actions

Beltran/MIlledge

That sounds like a good problem to have lol

by chri5 on Feb 14, 2005 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

Next Beltran?

He's going to have to figure out the difference between a ball and a strike before he can even hold Carlos' jock. I find Milledge a very intriguing player, but his plate discipline is so bad he could end up being a very big bust.
He's a typical tools player who MUST learn strikezone judgement to best utilize those tools. Some figure it out and some never do.

by eastin on Feb 15, 2005 8:09 AM EST up reply actions

My Comps.

About Mulder and his college velocity, from what I remember, he was a guy usually around 88-92. I won't say whether or not he was on steroids, but in that sophmore season, he did gain 3-4 MPH on his fastball. How he did it I don't know, but I'd love to hear how because I want that.

2 or 3 years ago, when he was healthy, Bobby Brownlie was Ben Sheets in the making. Both are similarly built (shorter guys with big legs, long arms, similar upper bodies), with pretty much the same stuff (good fastball, better curveball) back then.

To bad thats gone. Now he's Aaron Sele. That sucks, I'd go crazy if we had a Sheets clone in the rotation right behind Prior.

Jairo Garcia seems like Octavio Dotel.

Landon Powell really does remind me of Jason Varitek and even a little bit of Posada because of his power.

Homer Bailey reminded me of Josh Beckett with his mechanics and stuff.

Chad Billingsley strikes me as the next Kerry Wood.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 15, 2005 2:19 PM EST reply actions

Jairo

He is an exact clone of Dotel. Looks. Powell reminds me more of varitek as a player.

by ohad on Feb 15, 2005 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

victor diaz/ manny ramirez

no, i'm no saying victor diaz will ever hit like manny ramirez. I'll be happy if victor even hits .280-25-75. But has anyone ever seen victor diaz; he looks like a clone of manny ramirez, physically.

by mrmetaa on Feb 15, 2005 3:19 PM EST reply actions

Diaz

Yes, he does. He stole Manny's batting stance and got it perfectly.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 15, 2005 6:37 PM EST reply actions

another one...

Felix Hernandez... Dwight Gooden? I've seen it elsewhere. I don't think it's fair, since Dwight Gooden absolutely dominated A ball at age 18 even beyond what Felix did, and I have a hard time believing that Felix will duplicate what Gooden did at ages 19-21 in the majors. That said, Gooden noticeably tailed off (by his standards) after that, so maybe Felix could have a better overall career.

by okbluejays on Feb 15, 2005 10:33 PM EST reply actions