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Monday Discussion Thread

Basically an open thread, but if you want a thought to discuss, try this one.

"The theory of strategy scarcely goes beyond the first principles of common sense."---Helmuth Graf von Moltke (Moltke the Elder)

Does this apply to baseball?

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I think so...
You have a set number of outs in a 9 inning game.  To score a run you need to touch 4 bases.  Strategy would be to touch as many bases as possible while avoiding outs.  

See common sense...

by Christopher Michael on Feb 14, 2005 3:39 PM EST reply actions  

yeah
Yeah, common sense.

"Don't overwork your pitchers."
"Get people on base."

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 3:45 PM EST reply actions  

I read...
...somewhere that amatuers talk tactis, professionals talk logistics.  Not sure if this applies in baseball because you are limited to 25 guys and a finite amount of money.

I agree with Christopher Michael, more bases are probably going to lead to more runs. This is why I think stolen bases are vastly underrated, especially in the minors where home runs are few and far between (in my watching experience).  It may not show up immediately, but making it a habit to accumulate bases will pay off over the long run.

by Express Fan on Feb 14, 2005 4:43 PM EST reply actions  

SB
I think that stolen bases AT THE RIGHT PERCENTAGE (70% success or higher) are underrated to some extent, yes.

Sometimes I think we make things too complicated. To paraphrase Bull Durham, it's a simple game, really. Get on base. Keep the other guy off base.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 4:50 PM EST reply actions  

SB success percentage
What's the minimum success rate for base stealers to help their team? In my research, I use 66.6% (two thirds success rate), which creates some interesting findings, such as the fact that Pete Rose effectively cost his teams almost 100 bases over the course of his career. It's also easy to calculate, SB - (CS x 2) gives you a number, positive or negative, of the impact of base stealers. But is it accurate? What's your preferred number?

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 14, 2005 7:41 PM EST up reply actions  

percentage
I use 66% as the minimum of acceptability, and prefer 70% or higher.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 7:43 PM EST up reply actions  

But then...
Do you feel this can effectively translate from level to level? Is a runner who steals 80 bases at A ball in Clinton, Iowa going to be feasibly able to do that for Texas, or is he just picking on weaker throwing catchers in the low levels of the minor leagues?

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 14, 2005 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

success
Well, the total number of steals usually drops as the player moves up, often substantially, especially if the success percentage is mediocre.

If a player steals 20 bases in A-ball, but is caught 14 times, most of the time he will not be successful stealing at higher levels, on either a pure total basis or a percentage basis.

If a player steals 20 bases in A-ball and is caught 3 times, he has a better chance to sustain that at higher levels.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Kind of a weird tactic
used in Little League and seldom in Pro Ball.

You have a Runner on First Base. You have your runner go and take a lead but stand on the edge of the Outfield Grass.

It only works a couple times. What you're aiming for is the Pitcher to do a double take and not understand whats going on. He will think the Runner is out of the basebath (though the rules say you can be out of it as long as your not being chased by the ball, etc). The idea is to make the pitcher Balk the runner to 2nd Base.

by Zonis on Feb 14, 2005 4:52 PM EST reply actions  

But there's more to it than that:
In game strategies will frequently wash themselves out...bunting to play for one run will sometimes get you a run where you would've got nothing but cost you the shot at a big inning, etc...

However, organizational strategy is much more difficult. For example, it's hard to find a good catcher, so do you:

a) Draft lots of catchers and hope one pans out?
b) Draft lots of players at other positions and try to make one into a catcher?
or c) Acknowledge the fact that you'll have a catcher in your 8 hole forever and focus your efforts on more sure things?

This question is far from abnormal and the answer is far from common sense.

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 14, 2005 6:57 PM EST reply actions  

strategy
Good point, KL. This operates on different levels.

In-game managerial decisions are the tactical level. Organizational decisions come under the rubric of strategy or, perhaps, operations.

Here's a question. Let's say you are a baseball team owner. Would you like to have an excellent general manager (the strategist) and a mediocre field manager (the tactician)? Or would you prefer to have a mediocre general manager and an excellent field manager? Ideally both of course, but let's say you can't have both, just one or the other.

 

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 7:00 PM EST reply actions  

I'm taking the GM
Lou Pinella is considered a pretty good manager, but he can't win in Tampa. And while Art Howe struggles in New York, Billy Beane has kept the A's on the top shelf. A strong manager can make a team gain a few games, but when a strong GM does his job, they don't call it "overachieving" anymore.

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 14, 2005 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

He can't win yet...
It's not entirely his fault that he can't win in Tampa, but he's gonna eventually put a team that can compete with the yankees, just have it homegrown instead of bought.

by The Rocc on Feb 15, 2005 2:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Good Question
Good Question John.
My vote would be for the GM.
If you accumulate enough talent even an average manager can win a championship.  Basically I think it's a lot easier for an average or even poor manager to win a championship with great talent than it is for a great manager to win with poor talent.

by eastin on Feb 14, 2005 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

having seen
the incredibe Randy Smith show in Detroit, up close...

I'll take a sharp GM any day of the week.

by pure bull on Feb 24, 2005 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

GM
I agree, I'd take the GM.

You can have an excellent tactician in charge of the battle once it begins...but if the master strategist is an idiot, the tactician may not be able to do much given the conditions of the battle itself.

Even excellent division or brigade commanders may have trouble winning the battle if the general in charge is someone like, say, Braxton Bragg. Or name your least-favorite baseball GM here.

On the other hand, if you have a horrible division or brigade commander (or baseball manager), the best designs of the overall commander (the GM) may not be reached or can even be sabotaged.

by John Sickels on Feb 14, 2005 7:24 PM EST reply actions  

Boston
Just look at Boston. The GM is Theo Epstein, definitely in the top 3 of best GM's in the game, with Terry Francona as the manager. Is he a good manager? In my opinion, he's average. He's no mastermind on the bench. I think he'll get better as he works with the team, maybe, at some point, reaching 'top manager' status but he really isn't anything special. I think you can definitely say Boston's success in 04 can be primarily directed to Epstein, with Francona receiving some of it (he did have some smart bullpen decisions, and of course, who can forget Dave Roberts in game 4 of the ALCS? Then again, that's a no-brainer pinch running for Kevin Millar).

by RBooth @ Minor League Ball on Feb 14, 2005 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I take the excellent manager
And here's why. When the game is in play it is the manager who guides the team. The owner and GM cannot interfer with what is happening on the field, and it is the game that produces success or failure.

If I owned a pro baseball team I could not have a GM like Billy Beane. He wants autonomy and I want to be involved in the developement of the team, therefore our principle interests would clash. I would have to be hands on with my team and that would allow for my GM to be merely average. I'd need a GM with good people skills, who could manage the front office and scouting department and make sure that the organizational direction is followed.

A sharp manager and his coaching staff can give me just as much input about major league talent as an astute GM, more even in some cases. Consider LaRussa and his pitching coach Dave Duncan. They were able to transform Dennis Eckersley and Dave Stewart into All-Stars, and they'd be able to identify players with the same kind of untapped potential. You need a top-notch scouting department, and I don't think that's necessarily a product of an excellent GM. The organization sets the criteia of what we want in a prospect, and it's the job of the scouts to go shopping and find what we're looking for.

by grover on Feb 14, 2005 9:22 PM EST reply actions  

A better example would be Bobby Cox
and Leo Mazzone.  Schuereholtz (sp?) has made some good moves, but Cox and Mazzone seem to make even mediocre pitchers excellent for a couple years (Wright, Ortix, Millwood) and make good pitchers great (Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux, etc.).
That being said, great managers and coaches are much harder to find and for the premium they command, it's much easier to find a GM who can acquire the talent a team needs.  I'd take Billy Beane over Bobby Cox.

by Ellis on Feb 14, 2005 10:42 PM EST up reply actions  

No doubt Beane is more valuable
But Beane would not be willing to share power with me. I'm the owner so I win. I WANT to be involved in player personell decisions and Beane doesn't like interference.

by grover on Feb 14, 2005 10:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Heck
Why not go for a "Connie Mack" and assume all three roles (owner, GM, field manager). :)

by CatsBack2Back on Feb 14, 2005 11:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Connie Mack
Think he'd do it for 50 years too, like the real Connie Mack?

Of course, we'd all fire him before he hit 50 years, he finished in last seven straight years from 1915-1922, then 8 out of 11 years again from 1935 to 1946.

by Kyle Lobner on Feb 15, 2005 12:11 AM EST up reply actions  

After this season, I want to put out ultimate conc
After this season, I want to put out ultimate conclusions.
However, I think that manager are more important than GM. Depotesta can use more budgets than Beane can. I think the result is sure to come out a little more fast.

PS . I'm poor at English...sorry.

by highlander jpn on Feb 15, 2005 1:43 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd take the GM
Simply because baseball tactics aren't in any way complicated. While my idea of a good GM is probably different from yours (I'd want Sabean) there is no doubt that the GM can make a huge impact on the quality of players available to the field manager. Whereas the decisions that the field manager takes are limited both in extent and in effect.

Extent - this is pretty clear. Compared to say, the NFL, the field manager's input is minimal.

Effect - it's been shown that things like shuffling the rotation have very little effect in expected runs scored. And if my GM has given the franchise decent starters and a decent bullpen, it's not going to matter when you bring in a reliever.

Of all the team sports I know, I think baseball is most about the players, and least about the field manager. Frankly, I think most teams win despite their managers. As the GM chooses the players, you've got to go for him.

by Salemicus on Feb 15, 2005 1:39 AM EST reply actions  

Sabean
"While my idea of a good GM is probably different from yours (I'd want Sabean) there is no doubt that the GM can make a huge impact on the quality of players available to the field manager."

I'm not sure Sabean has put together much of a team this year, despite having the greatest player this half century.

by MrIncognito @ Minor League Ball on Feb 16, 2005 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

"You can't polish a turd"
I would absolutely take the GM.  I saw an interview with Peter Buck and Mike Mills from REM a long time ago and they were talking about how much goes into trying to fine tune a song once they get in the studio and one of them basically said once it's written it's either a good song or a bad song and you can't polish a turd.  I know Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone have done great things in Atlanta but they still had to have good players.  It's a no brainer for me

by duende5000 on Feb 15, 2005 2:06 AM EST reply actions  

Sickles Rocks!
I figured an open thread is the best place for this:  
Mr Sickels, I was bummed when I saw that you wouldn't be on espn.com any more - but this is even better!  Not that it matters in the real world, but I used your excellent reviews a couple years ago of players such as Victor Martinez, Jake Peavy, Carl Crawford and others to stash minor leaguers away in my fantasy league, which allows a minor league roster.  And, I won it all (w/ cash prize)!
More in line with reality, I really enjoy your prospect reviews and writing style - and it doesn't hurt that I am a Mariners fan and you rated King Felix at the top of the list!
If you could put out a Mariners Top 20 similar to the A's list, that would be wonderful.
Thanks for all your good work in the past, and I wish you great success in the future!

by kc @ Minor League Ball on Feb 15, 2005 2:20 AM EST reply actions  

Ooops...
nothing like having a typo on your last name!  Sorry 'bout that -- note that I got it right in the body of the message!

by kc @ Minor League Ball on Feb 15, 2005 2:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Game Tactics
Basically, as I see it, organizing a baseball team entails three major endeavors: evaluating/selecting talent, developing talent and managing talent. To date, the sabermetric community has focused a tremendous amount of its time and energy on the evaluating/selecting box; in doing so, we have learned an enormous amount. However, I'd like to see more work done on boxes two and three. Some work has been done but nothing consistent. (Someone please alert me if I am wrong.) This may have to do with the way roto leagues interacted with statistical analysis, creating a huge demand for that analysis. A market doesn't seem to have developed for research on game management because most managers couldn't care less about what the sabermetric community has to say (although, in time, I am confident this will change). Anyway, that's slightly off-topic.

My point is that many of the above comments, in which folks chose "good GM" over "good manager," may not have taken into account the huge number of new and innovative things managers could do to affect game outcomes but simply haven't. Right now, given current theories about how to use players, I agree that I would take a good GM over a good manager. However, a manager who was willing to look at some sabermetric approaches might become extremely, extremely valuable.

Just an example of sabermetric game management: the work done in the BJHBA about the proper use of relief pitchers. This work has been implicitly approved of by recent studies published on hardball times about "high leverage" innings. Interesting stuff.

Nolan

by Nolan on Feb 15, 2005 3:14 AM EST reply actions  

Depends
I think the most important decisions made on a baseball team are the 25 guys on the roster. The crucial decisions for a manager are more often who to play, rather than when to bunt. These days, the GM's seem better suited to make the correct decisions. But Earl Weaver was basically doing the Moneyball thing years ago. At the moment, I'd go with a GM, but I wouldn't be shocked if there's a swing back the other way in the future.

by ActionJackson on Feb 15, 2005 5:22 AM EST reply actions  

von Moltke
I've always like another one of his quotes that also applies to baseball, "No plan survives contact with the enemy."  or something like that.

by studes on Feb 15, 2005 12:11 PM EST reply actions  

the younger von moltke
Historically speaking, I don't believe the elder von Moltke's life and times actually agree with this qoute. His son (the younger von Moltke) and was a total loser when it came to strategy and was unable to understand the subtleties of military strategy. Baseball-wise, it's the same situation. Do any managers today even come close to the way Earl Weaver knew the game?

by shatner on Feb 16, 2005 7:23 PM EST reply actions  

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