Soriano to Dodgers?

by RVachon on Dec 6, 2005 10:13 PM EST

According to ESPN (and Peter Gammons) it looks like the Rangers and Dodgers are close on a trade of Alfonso Soriano for Jonathan Broxton.

I'm not sure I make this trade if I'm the Dodgers. Sure, Soriano is a proven commodity, but he's OBP challenged, defensively challenged, and expensive (relative to Broxton, at least). Then again, you do know what you're getting. Power. Speed. Strikeouts.

0 recs | Comment 42 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

poor splits

Soriano plays in a bandbox. His road/home splits are horrible. He's below average offensively on the road.

by sabernar on Dec 6, 2005 10:18 PM EST 0 recs

Broxton

What can you guys tell me about Broxton? How close to major league ready is he? How does he compare to the other top Rangers pitching prospects; Danks and Diamond?

by RandyKutcherHair on Dec 6, 2005 10:22 PM EST 0 recs

Defense

Hee Seop Choi could probably play a better second base.

Ok maybe not, but he's a really bad second baseman. Weren't Soriano and Young the worst defensive middle infield in the league last year?

by sasquatch83 on Dec 6, 2005 10:23 PM EST 0 recs

LF?

Maybe? That's what I've heard....

Regardless, from a talent perspective this is a GREAT deal if LA can pull it off; Broxton has a wonderful arm and will, I think, be a very effective short reliever in the Benitez/Frank Francisco mold, but assuming Soriano puts together an average Soriano year (.265, 25, 85, 25) it's a wonderful deal.

by silvysilv on Dec 6, 2005 10:56 PM EST 0 recs

Except

Soriano's years outside of Texas are ugly, and he says he won't move to the OF.

by sasquatch83 on Dec 6, 2005 11:02 PM EST up 0 recs

Er?

So I was imagining the back to back years with the Yankees?

2002 - .300-39-102-41 steals
2003 - .290-38-91-35 steals

I'm not saying his number won't slide; ergo, I think a projection of .260-25-85-25 is fair. Still, that gives the Dodgers the intriguing position of having the two best offensive second basemen in baseball, in my opinion (a case can be made for Utley, but I'd want to see another year).

Soriano isn't perfect by any means, but he's still a dominant offensive player. A comment otherwise is hyperbolic, at the least.

Furcal - SS
Navarro - C
Drew - RF
Kent - 1B
Soriano - 2B
Cruz Jr. - CF
Werth/Ledee - LF
Aybar - 3B

Looks good to me; depending on how quickly the kids come, LA is all of a sudden interesting.

by silvysilv on Dec 6, 2005 11:44 PM EST up 0 recs

Postscript

Say the Dodgers are treading water in July and the...hmm...Cubs/Cardinals/Red Sox/Mets are a productive second baseman away from running the division?

You're telling me that Kent or Soriano for Pie/Reyes/Papelbon/Milledge isn't looking very tasty?

by silvysilv on Dec 6, 2005 11:51 PM EST up 0 recs

An excellent point

Flipping Broxton for Milledge and a half year of Soriano would be a major coup.

by 3Com Park on Dec 7, 2005 12:42 PM EST up 0 recs

July is a long way out

I understand that you like the deal for other reasons, but the point above seems odd to me. I don't think any GM can make a trade based on the fact the he can get a better player via trades 8 months on the future.

Making a trade based on another deal that may happen 8 months in the future is not good business for any GM.

by count sutton on Dec 7, 2005 1:13 PM EST up 0 recs

Soriano

Soriano isn't perfect by any means, but he's still a dominant offensive player. A comment otherwise is hyperbolic, at the least.

Soriano isn't a dominant offensive player because he's an easy out.

Is that really hyperbole?

by Sulla on Dec 7, 2005 12:59 AM EST up 0 recs

Easy out?

So a player with 81 extra base hits in 2005 is an easy out. Interesting logic; do you by chance run the Royals?

by silvysilv on Dec 7, 2005 1:14 AM EST up 0 recs

Yes

Wouldn't a guy that made the second most outs in all of baseball be considered an easy out?

by Sulla on Dec 7, 2005 7:29 AM EST up 0 recs

Actually, no.

It would mean he had a substantial amount of plate appearances.

by silvysilv on Dec 7, 2005 9:10 AM EST up 0 recs

And that's also not REMOTELY close to accurate.

Just in the AL:

Blalock - 497 out
Ichiro - 494 outs
Figgins - 492 outs
Sizemore - 489 outs
Tejada - 485 outs
Jeter - 482 outs
Crawford - 480 outs
Soriano - 479 outs

By your logic, all of the above players are therefore easier 'outs' than Soriano?

by silvysilv on Dec 7, 2005 9:21 AM EST up 0 recs

Okay, lets try this

I know you probably don't believe in on-base percentage, but Soriano finished 131 of 148 qualifying hitters.

If Soriano isn't reaching base much, what is he doing?

by Sulla on Dec 7, 2005 7:33 PM EST up 0 recs

Well, the dicussion is moot now.

OBP wasn't your point, though. We're aware that Soriano's on base percentage isn't great; he contributes in other ways, obviously. Aramis Ramirez has the same problem, but he's still a very valuable player.

by silvysilv on Dec 8, 2005 12:43 PM EST up 0 recs

So I was right

You acknowledge Soriano's OBP isn't great (putting it kindly), hence he's an easy out.

by Sulla on Dec 8, 2005 5:32 PM EST up 0 recs

Not at all.

I said all along that Soriano contributes in other ways; you're actually telling me that you're 'right', when you founded your argument on incorrect information and changed your argument entirely? Incidentally, check Soriano's OBP during his years with the Yankees - not awesome, but not terrible.

by silvysilv on Dec 10, 2005 8:45 PM EST up 0 recs

81 xbh

having so many extra base hits is also a factor of having a substantial amount of plate appearances, especially when half of them are in Texas. We all know Soriano has good power, no one is debating that. A more important number than 81 xbh is .309, soriano's obp, or better yet, his replacement level defense. My guess is that in Dodger stadium Soriano would hit .280/.315/.490, thats ok for the LF, but not at soriano's likely salary.

by sanchez101 on Dec 7, 2005 2:07 PM EST up 0 recs

Terrible For LA

This is a ridiculous trade for the Dodgers if it goes through. Soriano hit .224/.265/.374 on the road in 2005. He is a butcher on defense. He will get about $10 million in arbitration. He is a free agent after 2006. And for all of those wonderful things the Dodgers give up six pre-free agency years of a now 21-year-old closer-in-waiting whose fastball was clocked at 101 MPH in Double A this year, and in his first 13 big league innings struck out 22 batters, including Albert Pujols twice. The Dodgers' New GM, Colletti, is a moron.

by CanuckDodger on Dec 6, 2005 11:50 PM EST up 0 recs

When will...

When will everyone realize that home/road splits aren't a good indication of how someone will hit when playing in a new home stadium? There are lots of factors going in to these splits, and sometimes during 162 games it's just a matter of when the player gets hot and cold. Also, if someone plays in a hitter's park like Texas, that can skew their numbers away from home. The average MLB player hits something like 10% better at home anyway, usually from comfort level/recognition of hitter's backdrop/familiarity.

To say that Soriano will hit .230 at Dodger stadium is just downright ignorant.

by limozeen on Dec 6, 2005 11:52 PM EST up 0 recs

Preach on!

by silvysilv on Dec 7, 2005 12:05 AM EST up 0 recs

I'm the Jonathan Edwards of baseball...

by limozeen on Dec 7, 2005 12:28 AM EST up 0 recs

Actually,

the problem is sample size. But over the course of two seasons, bad road stats can tell you something.

by Azteca on Dec 7, 2005 2:28 PM EST up 0 recs

.300

the question isnt what his BA will be, but what is OBP will be, when he struggles to get above .300 in arlington, how often is he going to get on base in dodger stadium.

your point is good though, home/road splits often dont tell very much as far as what a player will actually hit on the road.

by sanchez101 on Dec 7, 2005 2:02 PM EST up 0 recs

C'mon.

I LOVE Broxton. I've watched him from his entry into the Dodger system come alllll the way up to the majors. However, he's still completely unproven. Soriano is a perennial MVP candidate and one of th etop three offensive second basemen in baseball!

His 2002-2004 seasonal notation in ROAD games ONLY is the following (don't have access through 2005, sorry):

.260-30-75-27 steals 32/134(BB/K)

In 2005 (and excluding Soriano himself) there were ZERO second basemen who had more homers, only four who had more RBI, three who had more steals. The Dodgers are a team in DESPERATE need of offense. This is it. In fact, I'd posit that (if the trade goes throug) they have one of the top three most productive double play combinations in baseball in 2006.

by silvysilv on Dec 7, 2005 12:04 AM EST up 0 recs

Don't you get

tired of calling someone a moron based on rumors?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen.

by ToyCannon on Dec 7, 2005 6:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Broxton

Would the Rangers move Broxton back into the rotation or keep him as a reliever?

I would think that it would only make sense for the Rangers if they feel he can be a starter because Soriano seems like a high price for a reliever; albeit a very very good one.

whoever said, "it's not whether you win or lose," probably lost.

by JMcGee on Dec 6, 2005 11:02 PM EST 0 recs

Kent to 1B

Why Kent to 1B? I think the Dodgers could find a 1B who will outhit Soriano. Maybe you can't say because he sucked outside of the BP@Arlington in 2005 he will automatically hit that bad in 2006. But you can say he reeks in the OBP dept and on defense.

"If you don't like Torey Lovullo, then you don't like baseball." Sparky Anderson

by natsfan2005 on Dec 7, 2005 12:16 AM EST 0 recs

shhh

dont tell anyone, but they have a player just like that already on the roster, but if you mention his name the LA media will go crazy.

by sanchez101 on Dec 7, 2005 1:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Choi?

Well, if you're talking about Choi I tend to agree with the LA media. That guy can only hit cripple pitchers like Paul Wilson and Tomko. Plus he's useless against LHP. I set the bar a little higher for that for offense from my 1B.

"If you don't like Torey Lovullo, then you don't like baseball." Sparky Anderson

by natsfan2005 on Dec 7, 2005 2:09 PM EST up 0 recs

and

you believe that why, because buster olney told you. Oh, and let me get this staight, Soriano is capable of hitting good pitching and not just feasting on bad pitchers? Anyway, most pitchers are around Tomko's quality, he is after all a league average pitcher. Is your best excuse against Choi that he couldnt hit Roger Clemens or Jake Peavy, thats a pretty high bar to set. And just to keep the numbers staight, Choi's career eqa is .275, Soriano's is .283. Considering Choi will make about a 1/10 of Soriano, who would you rather have? Oh, and one wont cost you Broxton either.

by sanchez101 on Dec 7, 2005 2:16 PM EST up 0 recs

uh?

I'm not a Soriano advocate. You must be confused.

And know, I don't think Choi can't hit good pitching b/c I read a blog. I've looked at his batter vs pitcher matchups on retrosheet. He doesn't just hit .200 or .250 against good pitchers he completely tanks against them. Some he's hitless against. Some he strikes out more than 1/2 his ABs against. Outright disgusting.

I'd be OK with having a couple guys in the lineup who hit replacement level pitching and struggle against quality pitching. But why settle for that at the 1B position? I suppose you could if you really don't care if you win a playoff series. The Dodgers should aim a little higher than that.

"If you don't like Torey Lovullo, then you don't like baseball." Sparky Anderson

by natsfan2005 on Dec 7, 2005 2:49 PM EST up 0 recs

I don't do this trade if I'm LA!

Hello everyone,

No way do I do this trade if I'm LA. I know the Dodgers are "offensively-challenged," to put it mildly, but Soriano is not the answer to charge the LA offense.

Yeah, he'll give you some HRs and steal a few bases, but in terms of OBP, it's low, and his strikeouts are high. Plus, he goes into horrendous slumps for long periods of time, which won't help the Dodgers offense.

Plus, the guy they're considering trading for Soriano is probably one of the Top 2 arms in the Dodgers system (along with Billingsley.) Granted, Broxton's value may not be quite as high now because he is a reliever, but you don't find guys who can command 101 MPH fastballs growing on trees, no matter how good your farm system is.

RandyKutcherHair - To answer your question about Broxton, I believe he throws 100-102 MPH, regularly 96-98 MPH as a reliever, and has a good breaking pitch (don't know if it's a slider?) Personally, I think he has better stuff than both Danks and Diamond; his value may not be as high as those two (especially Danks, who I personally believe has a higher ceiling than Diamond,) but his overall ability I think outdoes both Danks and Diamond.

If you were trading for a Pujols, a Teixiera, a Delgado, etc., I would consider it, but a Soriano, a guy who is inconsistent offensively, even if he hits HRs on occasion - no way. Plus, his defense certainly will not help the Dodgers, who will still be more of a defensive-oriented club anyway even if they acquire Soriano. Even with Soriano, they have Kent, Bradley (if he stays,) and Drew (if he's healthy.) That's a maximum of four guys in the lineup you might consider as above-average. That's still not a juggernaut offense - add Soriano's defense in and your pitching staff is likely to give up more runs, which the Dodger offense will still not be able to overcome, even with Soriano.

Personally, if I'm Texas, I try hard to make this deal because I believe they will get the better end of it - plus, Ian Kinsler or someone else can take over 2B for them and put up decent to good numbers across the board (maybe not the HR power Soriano generates, but can certainly outdo him in fewer strikeouts and a higher OBP, which will probably prevent them from going into the long slumps Soriano falls into.)

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a good day!

by indiansfan on Dec 7, 2005 12:59 AM EST 0 recs

Its already been said, but....

theres no way this is worth it for the Rangers. Broxton may be a good prospect, but hes still far from being cant miss. Soriano is a terrific talent even if his D at 2B is poor. He annually scores 100 runs and has been driving in around 100 too when not batting leadoff. He doesnt walk a lot but he has a lot of power and is an impact player on the basepaths. I would much love to have a .280-100-25-100-25(.320 OBP) (conservative estimate for Soriano, has upside from that) line from my 2B.

Broxton wouldnt pull you any of those 1Bs you listed above and they play a less in demand position (again, lets not argue about Sorianos D, if he was unacceptable at 2B, someone would have forced him to move by now - his numbers make up for the poor D).

Just my 2 cents as well, have a good night

by grozzy on Dec 7, 2005 2:33 AM EST up 0 recs

cash

would you be willing to pay $10 million for that player?

by sanchez101 on Dec 7, 2005 2:10 PM EST up 0 recs

Good points, but...

Hello grozzy,

I respect your opinion; however, if Soriano is unwilling to play the outfield, there really isn't much any team can do to force him to play the outfield. Even if a team gives him a glove and tells him to go learn how to play the outfield, if he's unwilling to learn (which seems to be the case,) then he's not going to play the outfield no matter if his defense at 2B is below average (which it is by all accounts) or not.

Granted, his offense helps to overshadow his poor defense, but even some of his offensive statistics the last few years are moving in the wrong direction, which is not a good sign. Plus, being prone to long slumps will not help your offense enough for it to be worth giving up arguably the Dodgers' 2nd best pitching prospect (only to Billingsley) and probably, at worst, their fourth-best prospect (only Billingsley, Guzman, and LaRoche MIGHT be better than Broxton, in my opinion.)

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Take care and have a good day!

by indiansfan on Dec 7, 2005 7:20 AM EST 0 recs

Observation

I can see why Dodger fans don't want Soriano, but I don't see how trading a minor league reliever for him can be considered anything less than a steal.

by achiappanza on Dec 7, 2005 11:02 AM EST 0 recs

soriano

isnt worth his salary let alone, his salary and a minor league pitcher

by sanchez101 on Dec 7, 2005 2:08 PM EST up 0 recs

Soriano

By that logic, the Rangers can't give him away, or shouldn't find any takers who care about money. I doubt that's the case.

by achiappanza on Dec 7, 2005 4:23 PM EST up 0 recs

Soriano and Kent

I agree with silvysilv. Having those two dominant 2B is a commodity for the Dodgers. If they pick up Soriano, they can still move Kent this offseason to a contender for an SP or 1B/3B. I like Broxton's potential, but in the end, it could be the equivalent of trading him for whatever Kent brings... I like that.

zadster

by zadster on Dec 7, 2005 12:30 PM EST 0 recs

It's not just being a good player

The Dodger payroll is limited. They already have too many 2B with Antonio Perez, Willy Aybar, Jeff Kent, and now Cesar Izturis. I don't see how adding another 2B makes sense for a team that has holes elsewhere and a limited budget. Soriano may make $10 in arbitration and he is a free agent after the season. Don't bet on Soriano moving to the OF. He has refused to do it for both the Yankees and the Rangers.

Broxton is a closer of the future in case they cannot retain Gagne. He is making league minimum and has killer stuff. I am not against using him as a trading chip, but I would rather address the holes on the team.

by count sutton on Dec 7, 2005 12:35 PM EST 0 recs